2025 RB Class Part 2 and Complete Pre-Draft Rankings

Sorting through the depth of a fascinating RB Class

Hello folks and welcome back to TAT’s 2025 Rookie Class coverage!

Just under a week ago I dropped Part 1 of my 2025 RB Class analysis which focused on the consensus top-five backs (who would also be my top-five if I was doing a dynasty rookie draft today).

In that article I wrote a long introduction on my process for evaluating this class (and the position in general) which I encourage you to read as it applies arguably even more as we get further into the depth of this class. Throughout the column I also provided background for why I lean on the metrics I primarily cite for each back.

What I will say up front here though is that this class is exemplary. You can go 15-20+ names down the board and find backs who either have a clearly identifiable NFL role or were productive enough in college to at least present as intriguing contingent options in fantasy football, and valuable depth for an NFL team.

Because of that, I’ve seen more divergence in rankings of this class among people I respect and trust than is typical regarding players who are likely to command early-to-mid round draft capital.

I am aware of several sets of rankings other than my own, but I am not attempting to herd toward them, or toward ADP — even if I think you probably should. At this juncture, I’m providing a better service to you if you get my honest opinion on each player than if I artificially narrow the range of analysis available to you by herding toward consensus in hopes of improving my own accuracy by yielding to the wisdom of the crowds.

That being said, the rankings you’ll see today are my rankings if I was in a dynasty rookie draft today. That means I am factoring in projected draft capital (along with their analytical profiles, film, athleticism, and fantasy-football suitability). For those curious, I’ve provided two alternative Top-15 rankings at the bottom of this column. One is my ‘veil of ignorance’ fantasy rankings — i.e. my rankings without any projected draft capital. The other is my ‘if I were a GM’ rankings — i.e. my rankings without accounting for projected draft capital and ranking for real-life value, not fantasy. I’ve done both of those largely for fun, but I think they’re instructive of how each element is shifting my overall rankings to provide what I think is the most actionable set I can with what we know today. Naturally, these will be re-shuffled considerably after the draft.

One last note: I will be writing in a shorter and more organized fashion today (or trying to anyhow) than you saw in the first article since we have so many players to get through. The sections on each player will keep getting more concise as we go further down the tiers (there are no write-ups for RB21-30). If you want more expanded thoughts on a particular player, feel free to leave a comment.

Let’s get into it!

Sources

• I use PFF College for all stats unless otherwise sourced

• I review Pat Kerrane and J.J. Zachariason’s rookie models in the course of my preparation and strongly recommend both

• Metric Plots are from Campus2Canton — which also is a fantastic source of college statistics and Data

• My Film is sourced from DynastyNerds.

• Projected Draft Capital is from NFLMockDraftDataBase.

• Measurements and Athletic Testing is from NFL.com.

Statistical Legend

• YPTP = Yards per Team Play (per game) *Campus2Canton

• MSRY = Market Share of Team Receiving Yards (per game) *Campus2Canton

• MTF% = Missed Tackles Forced Percentage

• YAC/A = Yards after Contact per Attempt

• Breakaway Rate = % of rushes above 15 yards

• Chunk Rate = % of rushes above 10 yards

• YPRR = Yards per Route Run

— TIER 4 —

Below is a table showing each player in this tier’s production plot in YPTP and MSRY courtesy of Campus2Canton:

RB6 — RJ Harvey, Central Florida

By the Numbers

Size: 5’8” — 205 lbs.

40-yard Dash: 4.40

10-Yard Split: 1.57

Key Efficiency Metrics (2024): 30% MTF% ; 3.88YAC/A ; 14% Breakaway Rate ; 23% Chunk Rate

Key Production Metrics (Peak Season): 2.23 YPTP ; 11% MSRY

Projected Draft Capital: 122

Analysis

I wrote in my introduction to Part 1 that a large part of RB draft analysis for fantasy football comes to weighing talented players with role concerns vs. all-around players with talent (or draft capital) concerns.

Most of this column will be ping-ponging between these two categories of player, and exploring the different flavours of each.

The explosive RJ Harvey is my favourite of the first category.

He had the 2nd-highest Breakaway Rate of any RB with 100+ carries in the 2024 College Football season (FBS), and the highest Chunk Rate. Meanwhile, he ranked 20th (of 160) in MTF%, and was solidly above-average in YAC/A. While he peaked in 2024, he posted similar results in each metric in 2023 — establishing a proven track record of forcing missed tackles, creating chunk plays, and hitting home runs.

I found his film to be as exemplary as his metrics.

His 4.40 flat speed shows up consistently both on breakaway runs in the open field, and as he attempts to gain the edge. I also thought he showed the ability to play fast between the ears, recognize evolving lanes and shift gears to hit cutback opportunities. Compared to TreVeyon Henderson — another undersized speedster with elite per-touch metrics — I thought Harvey was a touch less fluid and was more prone to unnecessary movement behind the line of scrimmage. But on the whole, there was not a ton of daylight between the two backs as runners.

Harvey showed flashes in the receiving game as well. He hit an 11% MSRY and 1.39 YPRR in his super-senior season which are solid marks, albeit not elite. His 2.5 ADOT is interesting however, suggesting some potential to be used as more than a dump off threat. My worry with him as a receiver is that he really struggled in pass-protection, which could lead to him sitting on the sideline during two-minute drills.

Harvey has two seasons of 225+ carries, but there’s a plausible glass-ceiling on a back of his size in the NFL. As such, you need a reasonable receiving role in order to hit his fantasy ceiling.

I should note that my glowing view of Harvey’s tape is not universal. Lance Zierlein has a very strong history of grades that correlae fantasy football success and he rated him poorly. However, other film analysts are as excited as I am. FantasyPoints’s Brett Whitefield ranked Harvey third in the class.

As with almost every back we’ll discuss today, trying to gauge expert opinion necessitates a degree of choosing your own adventure.

Fantasy Outlook

Right now, Harvey is projected as an early day 3 pick, but has a realistic chance to land on day 2. I think Harvey is so explosive that he’ll have a role in almost any backfield, but I’d feel much better about his chance to emerge as more than a change-of-pace back if a team invests heavily in him.

His size, age, and projected draft capital are all red flags. But so long as he lands in a place with a pathway to a lead role, I want to bet on his talent to seize it.

Dynasty Valuation: Early 2

Comparisons: De’Von Achane, Elijah Mitchell

RB7 — DJ Giddens, Kansas State

By the Numbers

Size: 6’1” — 211 lbs.

40-yard Dash: 4.43

10-Yard Split: 1.53

Key Efficiency Metrics (2024): 27% MTF% ; 4.16 YAC/A ; 12% Breakaway Rate ; 17% Chunk Rate

Key Production Metrics (Peak Season): 2.11 YPTP ; 10% MSRY

Projected Draft Capital: 97

Analysis

Giddens checks a lot of important boxes for a fantasy-football RB.

He pairs every-down size with 4.4 speed, along with demonstrated production at Kansas State both on the ground and in the receiving games. Additionally, he ranks in the top quartile among all 2024 FBS RBs in each of the four efficiency metrics listed above.

The largest question is what kind of draft capital Giddens will receive, which will go a long way to determining whether he gets a shot to replicate his all-purpose college role at the next level.

To that end, I worry film evaluators may not be as bullish as his metrics on whether he’s good enough to get that shot (and take advantage of it) at the next level. For instance, Lance Zierlein has him outside his top-20, and Whitefield has him ranked RB11 (albeit with a Day 2 grade).

Diving into the film myself, I came away with a slightly mixed bag.

On one hand, I thought he showed good vision and decision-making. He largely executes the play as intended and recognizes when to make necessary cuts, while possessing the agility to execute them. Most impressive to me when watching his tape was his wiggle in the open-field cutting away from engagements with defenders. It’s easy to see how he achieved a 27% MTF% and 4.16 YAC/A despite a skinny frame for a RB.

I do have a few concerns. First is that while he has plenty of agility, I did not see 4.43 speed or burst on tape. He’s a bit of a glider who lacks suddenness at the hand off and rarely kicks it into 11 to run away from people. One may be reminded of Rachaad White at times — another tall college workhorse who proved to rarely play to his tested athleticism in the NFL.

Second, because of his slight frame he is not a physically imposing back. He runs upright through the line of scrimmage a la Jonathon Brooks or Tony Pollard and it’s fair to wonder if a team will want to rely on him at the goal-line.

Lastly, while he was used plenty in the passing game I’m not convinced he excels at it. His frame is not conducive to pass protection, and he does not have natural hands, having dropped 12% of his passes. I think it’s possible based on his history that he gets a 3-down role in the NFL, but it’s not assured.

Fantasy Outlook

I can nitpick Giddens’ profile but for the moment he’s a back who checks size and speed thresholds, has a history of 3-down production, and grades well in a suite of key efficiency metrics. He is also loosely projected for Day 2 capital.

If that comes to fruition he will be in line to score fantasy points early in his career and do so in bunches. That should give you a free look to determine whether he has what it takes to stick long-term.

Dynasty Valuation: Early 2 / Base 2

Comparison: Rachaad White, Jonathon Brooks