2025 Rookie Class Preview: The QBs

A Statistical and Film Review of a flawed but intriguing QB Class

Welcome in to Thinking About Thinking’s pre-draft rookie coverage.

I’m currently on vacation in Portugal for a couple weeks which has gifted me plenty of time to watch film, command F through statistical tables and write blog posts on planes, trains and other various automobiles as I work my way from city to city.

Today we’re starting with a look at each of the top-three QBs in the class. I will follow up with similarly detailed break downs of the top RBs and WRs, before writing briefer posts on the second and third tiers of options in your rookie drafts, before finalizing my pre-draft rankings and eventually providing the same immediate post-draft content you’ve come to expect the last two seasons.

Sources

• I use PFF College for all stats unless otherwise sourced

• I review Pat Kerrane and J.J. Zachariason’s rookie models in the course of my preparation and strongly recommend both

• Metric Plots are from Campus2Canton — which also is a fantastic source of college statistics and Data

• My Film is sourced from DynastyNerds. In addition, I watch and recommend TheQBSchool’s QB breakdowns on patreon

The QB Class at a Glance

As you’ve probably heard, this is not a particularly strong QB class.

Below is a chart with the six Round 1 QBs from 2024 compared to the top-four QBs from this year’s class in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (A/YPA) and EPA per Play.

As you can see, the best statistical profiles belong largely to the 2024 class.

Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix have the highest peak seasons, while Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and JJ McCarthy were all able to hit key statistical thresholds early in their careers (and thus declared after just 3 years in college).

Sheduer Sanders and Cam Ward present as far weaker bets than recent Round 1 QBs, while Jaxson Dart is the most impressive statistically — but has a more fragile draft capital projection and played in an offense which is not remotely translatable to the NFL.

Let’s dive in one-by-one to the top three QBs, including their statistical profiles, my film review of each, and their dynasty outlook.

QB1 — CAM WARD

Overview

Cam Ward is going to be the first overall pick. However, as we mentioned up top, that fact has more to do with the state of this QB class than his own profile — especially statistically.

Pat Kerrane noted that if Ward were to be drafted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall, he would be the lowest-rated QB picked at each of those spots in the history of his model.

It’s not hard to see why: through four years, Ward was the least efficient QB among the top-4 in this class.

While his 5th year was impressive in a vacuum, other 5-year QBs selected highly in the NFL draft generally reached a higher threshold — with the notable exception of Michael Penix Jr.

Last year, I was (wrongly) cautious about Jayden Daniels’ late breakout compared to his elite production. I don’t want to make that mistake again, but Ward’s breakout was late and merely good — not supernova a la Daniels or Joe Burrow. Statistically it’s a more similar profile (albeit worse!) to Bo Nix, and while I was happy to make the Nix bet at the 1-2 turn last year, you may be required to make the Ward bet at the 1.2 overall. Put another way, you have to make the Ward bet at the same cost as Bo Nix currently, despite Nix just posting an impressive rookie season in the NFL.

As a runner, Ward profiles more as a tactical rusher than a true dual-threat. Below I’ve included a table showing his Rush Yards Market Share against some recent comparables, as well as the top of this class.

However, the former Cougar and Hurricane scrambled on just 2.9% of his clean pocket drop backs across his college career — though that number did increase to 4.0% in 2024. That is a low mark compared to optimistic comparables such as Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert.

Watching him play, it’s clear Ward is a sufficient athlete and he has a thick frame built to take on contact. But his athleticism is not at the level his team will draw up enough designed runs to counter his unwillingness to call his own number as a scrambler. At best, you’d hope for a few zone-read TDs near the goal-line.

So if Ward is statistically unimpressive, and not particularly fantasy friendly — you really have to love the film to get excited about him at cost.

Statistical Context and Film Review

In short — I really loved the film.

Ward has an absolute cannon for an arm, which paid off with the 2nd most Big Time Throws of any QB in college football during the 2024 season (2nd in BTT%). There is truly no throw on the field Ward cannot make, and he often does so even when throwing off-platform.

Before diving into his tape myself, I’ve heard a narrative that Ward is a swashbuckling playmaker who could be careless with the football in search of the big play. He’s certainly a creative QB willing to take chances, but it didn’t result in disaster too often. His Turnover Worthy Play rate of 3.3% was average among College QBs in 2024, and his 15.9% Pressure-to-Sack Ratio was 92nd (complimentary).

Ward isn’t just a rocket launcher. He was reasonably accurate at all areas of the field even when rearing back for a fast ball. His adjusted completion % (76.% — 14th) trailed both Dart and Sanders, and I would rate his accuracy below both. But he’s certainly not a Will Levis or Anthony Richardson. When throwing out of RPOs, he was able to throw accurate screens or hitches at horizontal angles without re-setting his feet — displaying impressive strength and accuracy. Drake Maye might be a better comparison as a live-armed QB capable of consistently making big plays down the field despite an occasional foul ball.

I was most impressed by Ward’s combination of innate feel, competitiveness, and high football IQ. He made multiple sharp checks to run calls if he noticed a favourable box count, and diagnosed favourable WR matchups at the line of scrimmage. His downfield vision when extending plays was excellent and allows him to take advantage of his strong arm. He consistently changed his arm angles to thread passes around defensive (and offensive) linemen when working from the pocket.

To summarize his strengths into one sentence: Ward consistently made the types of plays which translate most to the NFL.

If I had one concern from his 2024 tape it’s his mechanics. His drop is flat and unstructured, but he more often than not hit his back foot on time and got into a proper throwing position. I think he can be coached up on this point. His throwing motion however is quite low — often releasing at a ‘3/4’ delivery. He’s not a particularly tall QB prospect standing 6 foot 1.5 inches. I don’t think his release affected his accuracy negatively, but the combination of his lack of height and low release point will result in a high percentage of his balls being tipped in the league.

In 2024, Ward was deemed responsible for 18.9% of his pressures by PFF. This ranked 51st of 148 QBs with at least 40 pressured drop backs — below average but perfectly acceptable for his style of play. For comparison sake, I consider Caleb Williams a similar archetype of QB, and he ranked 2nd with 30.0% in his draft year in this statistic.

Summary

Ward is a physically talented, creative playmaker who has a lot of impressive NFL traits. He profiles as the type of QB I’d love to bet on if he were being drafted closer to the mid-first in both the NFL and dynasty rookie drafts.

My fear is that due to the lack of options in this class we will be forced to judge Ward against a higher statistical threshold. Being better than his stats isn’t a bonus in this case — it’s a necessity. It requires a high degree of subjective conviction to bet on Ward to hit the floor required of a 1.02 or 1.03 rookie draft pick, and his lack of rushing ability more often than not caps his ceiling as of a low-end QB1.

I was prepared to list Ward as a major fade prior to watching his tape, but after doing so I’m closer to a neutral position at his likely cost.

Dynasty Valuation: 1.25 — 1.5 Base 1s