2026 Running Back Class Pre-Draft Rankings and Analysis: Part 2
Hello folks and welcome back in for Part 2 of my 2026 Running Back Class coverage. I had hoped this would originally come out earlier, but was dealing with an unexpected personal issue the past couple days, so we’re working to get back on schedule.
I released Part 1 of the 2026 RB Rankings and Analysis on Monday, which covered my RB1, Jeremiyah Love, and the three backs I’ve placed in Tier 2: Jonah Coleman, Jadarian Price, and Mike Washington. If you missed it, I’d recommend at least reading the introduction because it equally applies to my process for the rest of the backs I’m going to talk about today.
As I mentioned in that piece, this is not a strong running back class — and I’m not alone in thinking so. We’re already through all four backs currently projected to be selected on the first two days of the NFL draft, and there are only 7 more with a consensus ADP in the top-200 on NFL Mock Draft Database.
Typically by the time we reach this tier of prospects I’m down to about a paragraph each, and not far from doing a sentence or two. I won’t be going as long on the players in today’s post as I did in Part 1, but the shallowness of the class does afford me some extra capacity to devote to likely role players, and we can decide together if any have a chance to be a diamond in the rough.
If you chose not to read Part 1 I will repeat one essential piece of information: the valuation indicated in my tiers is based on what I deem each player to be worth in a vacuum, and relative to future picks and veterans in the wider market. It is not where I’d rank them specifically in this class.
Because this is a weaker class than average, some players I rank as being worth an “early 2nd” will be ranked in the late 1st, and “early 3rd” values will be ranked in the late 2nd etc.
Let’s get into it.
Sources
I use PFF College for all stats unless otherwise sourced
I review Pat Kerrane and J.J. Zachariason’s rookie models in the course of my preparation at all positions and strongly recommend each
Metric Plots are from Campus2Canton — which also is a fantastic source of college statistics and Data
My Film is sourced from DynastyNerds
Projected Draft Capital is from NFL Mock Draft Database
Statistical Legend
YPTP = Total Yards from Scrimmage per Team Play (per game) *Campus2Canton
RYPTPA = Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
REC% = Percentage of Team Receptions (per game) *Campus2Canton
MSRY = Market Share of Team Receiving Yards (per game) *Campus2Canton
DOM = Backfield Dominator Rating (per game) *Campus2Canton
MTF% = Missed Tackles Forced Percentage
YAC/A = Yards after Contact per Attempt
EXP% = Percentage of rushes above 15 yards
CHUNK% = Percentage of rushes above 10 yards
“Creation Metrics” = Reference to the combination of MTF/EXP/CHUNK/YAC
YPRR = Yards per Route Run
Tier 3: Pre-Draft Value — Late 2nd
RB5 — Nicholas Singleton (Penn State)
By the Numbers
Size: 6’0” — 219 Lbs.
40-yard Dash: DNP
10-Yard Split: DNP
Creation Metrics (2025): 15% MTF — 9.7 CHUNK — 2.4 EXP — 2.69 YAC/A
Production Metrics (Peak Season): 62.2% DOM (2025) — 1.84 YPTP (2024) — 12.6% MSRY (2024)
Projected Draft Capital: 129
Overview
Nick Singleton is the biggest risk-reward running back prospect in the class. A 5-star high school recruit in 2022, Singleton became an immediate contributor at an elite program (Penn State) and was one of the most sought after running backs in devy formats. However, he now enters the draft coming off his least effective season and is projected to fall to day 3 of the NFL draft.
Analysis
Below I’ve re-posted the plots I laid out in Part 1 showing the YPTP and MSRY of RBs 2-8 in this class by projected draft capital.
As you can see, Singleton has a level of early-career production nobody (except his college teammate) can match, as well as one of the class’s best receiving profiles.
Singleton and teammate Kaytron Allen are a fascinating duo in college football to track throughout their careers — especially in the NIL-era when player movement is so common. Both backs were part of the same recruiting class, and Penn State signed them just 10 days apart in the summer of 2021. Singleton was the unanimous top running back recruit in the country, and was widely expected to become a college superstar and potential 1st round draft pick. Allen was a 4-star recruit in his own right, but never received the same level of fan fair.
Remarkably, Penn State turned their entire backfield over to these true freshmen in 2022, who split work nearly 50-50 in their first season. They continued to split work near evenly in both their sophomore and junior seasons (with Singleton more involved as a receiver), before Allen pulled away as the lead rusher down the stretch of Penn State’s disaster class season in 2025.
Adding to his downward momentum, Singleton suffered a broken bone in his foot at the Senior Bowl, which deprived him of a chance to show off his athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine. While we don’t have any numbers, I’m quite confident in saying that Singleton is one of the most athletic backs in the class, who would have improved his stock if he had the chance to test. This injury is expected to be healed before camp, so it only matters to the extent this missed opportunity harms his draft capital.
The main issue with Singleton is that despite his elite pedigree, he never translated his athletic gifts into consistently efficient rushing. His 2025 creation metrics (MTF, YAC, EXP% and CHUNK%) are unimaginably putrid — quite legitimately the worst of any back I’ve written about at length since starting this newsletter. It’s no wonder the team decided to lean more on Kaytron Allen down the stretch.
In 2024, Singleton had a 19% MTF, 3.54 YAC/A, 10.3% CHUNK and 18.4% EXP. The breakaway rates are above average, while his tackle breaking and yards after contact marks were uninspiring but firmly back on planet Earth. For his full career, his creation profile is below average, but 2025 is decidedly an outlier.
Perhaps Singleton’s head was no longer in the game after his dreams of returning for a senior season National Championship went up in smoke, and he had to play out the string with an interim coach and backup quarterback. We’ll never know, but it was truly a *Bill Simmons Voice* “season from hell.”
Overall, it’s concerning that a back with as much natural talent as Singleton could not more consistently translate that to efficiency, or separate from a less versatile and physically gifted player who was the same age as him in Kaytron Allen.
Watching Singleton is unsurprisingly frustrating. There are flashes of greatness when he gets into the open field, followed too frequently by head-scratching decisions and inconsistency. He’s just not a natural or rhythmic runner in my opinion — at least not yet.
If you want reason for optimism, Singleton’s creation metrics prior to 2025 are not totally dissimilar to Quinshon Judkins from last year’s class, another athletically gifted prospect I did not love on film in college, but who has shown to be a more impressive professional runner than he was a college player. Unfortunately, it does not appear that Singleton will get the same level of investment from an NFL team that Judkins did.
Fantasy Outlook
If you’re taking the swing on Singleton — especially in any pre-draft format — you’re taking a blind plunge on receiving ability, elite athleticism, and workhorse size.
I started this off-season out on the former Nittany Lion, but over time I’ve warmed to the idea that he’s worth a shot given how little upside is available deep into this class. You need to be comfortable taking a zero when you select Singleton, but the opportunity cost near his (likely) ADP is probably rather low.
If he’s able to put it all together together in the NFL and receives an opportunity to prove himself, Singleton has higher upside than any 2026 running back outside of Jeremiyah Love. Unfortunately, I could have made a similar case for dozens of former devy darlings turned day three selections and more often than not the bet fails.
Comparables: Quinshon Judkins, Zach Evans, Sean Tucker, Israel Abanikanda
