Anthony Richardson is the most Athletic QB of All-time
And your Rookie Draft decisions just got a LOT more interesting
I was not planning to write a post today. In fact, I was not planning to do much writing regarding specific prospects and 2023 rookie drafts until April.
However, when the most-discussion worthy prospect in the class sets multiple combine records, it makes plans worth changing.
The 21-year old Florida Gator lit Lucas Oil Stadium’s turf ablaze in every athletic category at the NFL combine, resulting in the highest ever relative athletic score among all quarterbacks, and 3rd highest among all players.
His performance left zero doubt regarding his athletic upside, especially the rushing production he can provide in fantasy football. As his stock climbs, the question is at what opportunity cost the risk remains worth the reward. We won’t dive too deep into Richardson’s prospect profile today, but I want to outline how I’m viewing him as a bet, and how far up the board it’s worth making.
Draft Capital and Value Insulation
By all accounts, Anthony Richardson improved his draft capital expectation with his testing today. That being said, we can’t be certain how NFL teams value him until his card is turned in. For the purposes of this post, let’s assume Richardson is drafted in the top-15 picks, while acknowledging the chance he is not must be accounted for in any transaction you make with him in mind.
Quarterbacks drafted in the top-15 have a high degree of job security, at least over their rookie contract. Knowing nothing else about their prospect profile, each is roughly 50-50 to earn a starter extension with the team who drafts them. Between 2008-2020, 79-percent have started for at least 3 years within their rookie deal.
Let’s acknowledge we don’t know “nothing else” about Richardson’s prospect profile. As a passer, Richardson would be one of the least productive quarterbacks to be selected in the first round of the draft in recent memory. The risk he cannot convert the upside of his tools into operating an efficient NFL offense is significant. It would be fair to say his survival odds in both categories is below that of the sample as a whole. Nonetheless, his floor as a player is not necessarily his floor as a dynasty investment.
The likelihood of a three-year starting window is crucial. That is our window to asses the bet we’ve made and decide whether to hold or sell. Even if you say it’s less than 79-percent for Richardson, it should be emphasized that several of those who made it three years posted horrendous passing efficiency, and some misses (Locker, Griffin III) were injury-induced.
Dynasty managers mischaracterize high-risk bets by overstating the chance a bet goes to zero. Most often you are granted several opportunities to trade away a player who ultimately bottoms out before it’s too late.
Consider Trey Lance for example. You could hardly script a worse two-years for Lance since he was selected third overall in 2021. Through a mix of awful injury luck, uninspiring play (in a small, rain-soaked sample), and Brock Purdy’s emergence, Lance has hardly played football through two years and his starting status is in legitimate jeopardy.
Nonetheless, he still holds an ADP of 4.07 in super-flex startups. If you wish to sell for a manageable loss from his draft day cost, you can likely do so this off-season. I’m not necessarily recommending that you do, merely stating that holding a player until their value bottoms out is a result of successive choices to hold over multiple years, rather than a direct result of your initial draft choice.
The thesis with Richardson is the value insulation of his (potential) draft capital provides him with a higher actionable floor for your dynasty team than his passing profile would suggest. Ten of 14 (70-percent) top-15 quarterbacks since 2008 with best season team rush yards share (MSRY) above 15-percent have posted a QB1 season. The only misses since 2012 are Marcus Mariota, and (to-date) Trey Lance; who certainly still has a chance. The only one of the 10 not to hit in their first two seasons is Daniel Jones.
In sum; if you draft a rushing quarterback with top 15 draft capital, the most likely outcome is they will start for at least three years, and offer strong fantasy value early in their career. This combination offers a reasonable chance to evaluate Richardson once he’s in the NFL and decide whether or not to hold or sell before losing significant market value.
Because of this ‘free-roll’ effect, I have always advocated for taking shots on rookie quarterbacks with strong rushing profiles regardless of concerns with their passing profile. If those concerns prove unwarranted in the NFL, you have one of the most valuable assets in super-flex dynasty on your roster. If you remain concerned, you can more likely than not cash out your chips before your pot evaporates.
The Market is Getting Sharper
I tweeted today concern that Richardson’s price may become more cost prohibitive than similar bets in the past, due to the market’s increasing willingness to chase ceiling outcomes; specifically in the form of rushing quarterbacks.
Historical dynasty ADP is rather unreliable, but we’ll do our best to illustrate the picture with some notable ADPs of unproven rushing quarterbacks DLF’s super-flex ADP.
In 2022, Trey Lance was selected at QB9 (17.8 overall) and Justin Fields QB16 (30.5). In 2021, Lance was drafted QB10 (14), Fields QB11 (16.8), and Hurts QB16 (29.8).
Back in 2019, a rookie Kyler Murray was drafted as QB11 (52), Lamar Jackson entered his 2nd year at QB13 (62.8), and Josh Allen was QB19 (76.8) after his rookie campaign. Patrick Mahomes was QB11 (45) after his redshirt year. This tier of quarterbacks has gained significant value recently relative to other positions.
Seasonal drafters have surely noticed the same phenomenon. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were all drafted as late-round options in redraft entering their sophomore season, and mid-round QB2s in best ball. Fast forward to the last two years when Trey Lance and Jalen Hurts climbed into round 7 with regularity after sparsely playing as rookies. Trey Lance was drafted as a top-12 best ball quarterback as a rookie, when his team ultimately planned never to play him.
There are counter-examples to this: Justin Fields and Daniel Jones come to mind as successful arbitrage bets in 2022 as lower-priced rushing quarterbacks. However, their success may only further the movement Jackson and Allen solidified in 2019. Fantasy football gamers and analysts are increasingly unwilling to miss out on a league-winning young quarterback, and they are willing to pay for it.
in 2023 startup ADP, the ‘1.02’ and ‘1.03’ are being selected at 2.09 and 3.02 overall, presumably for the purpose of selecting Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Apparently, even non-rushing prospects are not immune from the siren song of young quarterback inflation in Biden’s economy. It is likely after today we see some drafters use one of those picks on Richardson instead, and even more likely drafters push the ‘1.04’ and ‘1.05’ rookie picks up the board from their current fourth round startup ADP.
Mike Leone recently podcasted about the change in how the market values ceiling more broadly, in a compelling episode of Establish the Edge. Leone outlines that heuristics which have been historically profitable can see their edge reduced when the market broadly adopts them.
I’m not certain at what point the shark was, will be, or could be jumped when it comes to rushing quarterback prospects, but it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility. If Richardson comes into the league with substantially more value than a quarterback with his profile would have in previous years, it stands to reason he could lose a far greater percentage of his value insulation more quickly.
The Importance of High-Ceiling QBs
Setting aside shark jumping concerns for the moment, the prioritization of rushing quarterbacks in super-flex dynasty is well-founded. Below is a chart from @Adeiko_FF outlining the relative value over replacement by positional ADP in a two-quarterback, start 10 league setup.
Quarterback provides the highest wins over replacement ceiling of any position, and carries a significant scarcity effect in super-flex or two-quarterback formats. Add in the length of the position’s average peak production window, and it’s easy to understand why the first round of startups often include 8-10 QBs. While some, like Joe Burrow and to a lesser extent Patrick Mahomes, can provide elite value without offering significant rushing upside, the majority of consistently elite quarterbacks provide a rushing floor.
With how difficult it is to evaluate quarterback prospects, the straightest shot to an elite fantasy option is a known elite athlete who can combine high-end rushing with competent passing. This archetype provides the most stable year-to-year QB1 projection due to a lower dependency on weaponry, team pass-rate, and touchdown rate. It also provides the highest possible ceiling in the case their rushing floor is combined with better than expected passing production.
Further still, the scarcity effect of elite quarterbacks makes them difficult to acquire. It’s one thing to state the average going rate of Patrick Mahomes in trades citing a market aggregator or ADP. Even trade-finders which scrub real-league data just show the price of trades when they happen, but say nothing of the likelihood a trade will happen. It’s best not to view the value of a QB based on completed trades involving them as their average cost of acquisition. Instead, it’s their average cost of acquisition from the managers most inclined to sell them. The majority of managers are either unwilling to trade their QB1 entirely, or unwilling to do so at “market” rate.
For that reason, taking swings on Anthony Richardson is especially appealing. Several of you may conclude drafting him in rookie drafts is your most realistic path to rostering an elite quarterback at or near their market cost. Whatever differences in their passing profile, the bar Richardson needs to hit vs. C.J. Stroud, who has 88 rushing yards in two full seasons as a starter, to be a difference-making fantasy asset is substantially lower.
Even if you think it’s unlikely Richardson approaches league-average quarterback play, several rushing quarterbacks have provided fantasy value in spite of middling or poor passing results in their early career.
If both receive top-15 draft capital I will be ranking Anthony Richardson above C.J. Stroud. I haven’t decided fully on Richardson vs. Bryce Young, but I lean toward Richardson as my rookie QB1 at this moment. This is the type of likelihood vs. impact dichotomy I think is best decided in favour of the ceiling option.
Put generally, my take is: the probability Richardson is a viable enough passer to keep his offense on the field long enough to score a lot of fantasy points and keep his job, is higher than the probability a pocket-QB prospect is not only viable, but special enough, and in a situation favourable enough, to consistently produce an elite fantasy ceiling.
In the event neither ceiling case hits, whatever chunk of the range of outcomes includes C.J. Stroud as a Jared Goffian QB2 while Richardson falls out of the league is a chunk I’m willing to eat the loss on. Dynasty success is primarily determined by the production and market value of your most impactful players. Decisions ought not be made on the basis which losing outcome is less detrimental.
Don’t Let the Tail wag the Dog
The best advice you’ll ever get for playing dynasty comes from Harvey Specter.
“What are your choices when someone puts a gun to your head? You take the gun, or you pull out a bigger one. Or, you call their bluff. Or, you do any of 146 other things.”
If you find yourself concerned about the prospect of Anthony Richardson’s rising price vs. his flawed collegiate profile, the alternate choice does not need to be selecting a different rookie quarterback who is arguably over-priced.
Because of the focus on rookie draft content, most Richardson discourse will centre on which of Stroud, Bijan Robinson, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba etc. he should be selected above. But these are not your only choices when you are on the clock or before.
Multiple times today I have been asked whether there is a case for taking Richardson at the 1.01 instead of Bijan Robinson, the “generational” running back from Texas. My answer to that is this:
Bijan Robinson currently possesses an ADP of 1.12 in startups; ahead of Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson. It is quite conceivable you can trade the 1.01 for either of these options, and at least plausible you could trade 1.01 + something less than another 1st round pick for Lamar Jackson.
I held the 1.01 pick in six leagues to open the off-season. I’ve attempted to trade five of the six for a top-10 quarterback and to this point have been successful in three of those; twice Trevor Lawrence and once Deshaun Watson. In each, the move was made either straight up or with a marginal add to either side.
I can’t promise you a similar deal is workable in your league, but if it is, such a deal is infinitely superior to selecting any rookie quarterback at the 1.01.
As for Richardson himself, who will more commonly be selected between 1.02-1.05 (pending draft capital), we should adopt a similar approach.
The ceiling vs. median discussion we had in assessing Stroud vs. Richardson entirely evolves if the discussion shifts to say, Kyler Murray vs. Richardson + a late 1st round pick or young WR in the vein of Brandon Aiyuk or Michael Pittman Jr.
All of a sudden the argument we just made for Richardson; bullish on ceiling at quarterback, bearish on the impact of mid-level assets, now works against him. For the same reason we are willing to risk missing out on the Jared Goff range of C.J. Stroud’s outcomes to improve our chance of hitting a ceiling, we should be eager to pay an insurance bill of Brandon Aiyuk to for the greater chance Kyler Murray remains who he is than Anthony Richardson becomes what we hope.
Exactly where our breaking point should be is harder to articulate, and dependent on our roster and league environment. In general, the more valuable the roster, the higher the bill you should be willing to pay on insurance. I think 1.5 “base 1sts” is probably my estimated average breaking point at the moment. [Note: a “base 1st” = a 1st round pick in a future year that is equally likely convey in any slot]
To sum up, we have a long way to go before finalizing the optimal draft strategy for the 2023 rookie class. But for those holding early firsts, and considering whether Richardson’s shaky floor is worth the ceiling, the most prudent form of risk-aversion is not one that substitutes ceiling for floor with your draft pick. Instead, work the phone lines to send away extraneous production in exchange for a secured ceiling in your quarterback slot.
this was excellent! a much more cogent and through articulation of what i've been saying about him being a "good bet to make, all things considered" - thanks for this!