Expanded Thoughts on JCM / the Commanders + Brian Robinson Trade Reactions

(This could have been an intro)

Last night we let the liquor talk I posted an article on four backfields featuring polarizing rookies. I predicted the week 1 roles in each and discussed how they might evolve over the course of the season. If you want to read up on the Commanders, Patriots, Broncos and Steelers please click the link below.

I was sitting down to write my Part 2 of that column — discussing the Browns, Giants, Steelers, and Cowboys — when I pulled a classic Jakob move and wrote a nearly 2,000 word introduction instead, mostly in response to one text message I received last night.

So instead of adding a ridiculous introduction onto what will surely be an already long piece I plan to release tomorrow, I’m just going to hit publish on this hodge podge as a standalone (free) post.

Re: the Commanders and JCM: last night Ben Gretch of stealing signals texted me a screenshot of the below passage I’d written about JCM:

I am comfortable taking JCM at or ahead of where I ranked Robinson prior to the latest run of news — which means considering him as early as late Round 8.

While perhaps JCM’s floor is a tick lower than we perceived Robinson’s to be, I will happily accept a lower floor for my Round 8-10 RB in exchange for a higher talent-based ceiling. I think it’s revealing of the fantasy community’s continued fearfulness that so many analysts have not adopted this frame of mind.

Gretch — who has JCM ranked a tier or so lower than I do — asked me “what if I wasn’t drafting Robinson at all in that range at any point in years?”

It’s fitting that Gretch texted me this because Robinson — whose price was two full rounds lower in 2024 than for most of 2025 — was one of our larger disagreements last year in Best Ball and I think you could make a reasonable case for the winner either way. On one hand, Robinson objectively “out-performed” his ADP last year providing 10.7 Half-PPR PPG from Round 10.

On the other hand, he was priced similarly to Chase Brown for most of the summer and multiple tiers above or Bucky Irving — who were far more impactful players. I suspect Ben would argue that even though Robinson was a better pick than many of the players around him, his range of outcomes did not feature the tail outcomes that several players drafted near or after him did, and every time you clicked on Robinson you chose to forgo a higher-upside swing, including some players like Brown who hit in a massive way and other players who may not have, but had a higher ceiling they could have potentially accessed than Robinson was capable of.

I think there is merit to this, but I managed to have well-above market exposure to Robinson, Brown and Irving so I don’t think it’s quite so simple. In any case, that argument is largely philosophical.

None of this is to try to put words in Gretch’s mouth or re-litigate the past (which I suppose I’ve done). Mostly I’m responding to what I see as a pretty fair retort from Gretch to my JCM take: If you weren’t in on Robinson at all in the first place, why does his previous ADP have to anchor us in any way with respect to the new price of JCM (or Rodriguez)?

The truth is it doesn’t have to. For what it’s worth I have 1% Robinson and have ranked him well outside my top-100 ever since we started hearing buzz on JCM. But I think implicit in Gretch’s question is a related one that I’ve seen a lot of folks pose, which is: how valuable is the early-down role on the Commanders anyhow?

And I think it is more valuable than the consensus realizes — especially if filled by someone with a higher talent ceiling than Brian Robinson.

My case for Robinson last year was based on the combination of a rushing efficiency boost from playing next to Jayden Daniels in an RPO / Read option heavy offense, plus Kliff Kingsbury’s historically run-weighted red zone tendencies.

Last off-season I noted that Kingsbury’s Cardinals offenses ranked 9th, 4th, 4th, and 15th in rushing TDs — despite only having one particularly good offense in those four years. The ratio of rush:pass TDs was more weighted to the run than the NFL average in all four years. Sure enough the Commanders finished 4th in rushing TDs last year (9th in passing TDs). Of their 25 total rushing TDs 18 went to the running backs.

Only the Packers, Lions and Bills had more RB rushing TDs than the Washington Commanders last year — and according to Hayden Winks’ model, the Commanders ranked 3rd in the league in expected running back TDs.

The common refrain I’ve seen from bearish analysts on JCM is that Ekeler is stealing passing downs and the TD upside is limited by Jayden Daniels. Yes, Daniels will have a red-zone rushing role. But Kingsbury has extreme run tendencies near the goal-line — which have been sustained over five years as a play-caller, in which he had a mobile quarterback in all five. This offense will be able to sustain 5-8 rushing TDs for Daniels as well as a top-10 if not top-5 figure in running back rush TDs.

This brings us back to the question of who benefits from this goal-line role. If it’s Chris Rodriguez (or split), then the JCM bet probably won’t hit in a major way. But if JCM can fulfill the Brian Robinson role (a.k.a. the James Conner or Kenyan Drake role) then I think it’s pretty easy to project 200+ carries and 900+ yards with 8-10 TDs. Maybe that benefits you more in a half-PPR best ball league than a managed-PPR league, but I think that’s a strong upside case anywhere in Rounds 8-10. For what it’s worth I have Rodriguez in my top-200 BBM rankings and think he’s a strong late-round click in his own right, especially since he was never drafted until the past few days.

I do not think JCM has the same level of talent upside as say, Kaleb Johnson, and I have Johnson ranked higher. I also think it’s fair to say that the true ceiling for some backs we will talk about in the eventual Part 2 of my rookie backfields column— Cam Skattebo and Bhayshul Tuten — is higher than JCM’s. Similar to how I discussed Jaylen Warren vs. Kaleb Johnson last night, deciding between JCM and these other rookies comes down to how you weigh the former’s path to an immediate starting role vs. the potential three-down upside of Skattebo or Tuten at some point in the season.

I don’t think it’s as easy as preferring one vs. the other because every format is different and every draft is different. Are you in a home league or a tournament? How many players are you starting each week? Have you already invested in early running backs or not?

Rankings are a two-dimensional tool to attack a three-dimensional game and I hope you can take my longer form thoughts and apply those to your drafts in a dynamic way, rather than strictly drafting off my rankings (or anyone’s rankings for that matter).

But for what it’s worth I just did a re-rank for BBM, FFPC, and Home Leagues today. In my home league rankings, Johnson is firmly above JCM, Skattebo is one spot ahead, and both are ahead of Tuten (who I’ve still ranked well above ADP).

Speaking of Kaleb Johnson — I stand by the roster-dependent elements of comparing him vs. Warren that I laid out yesterday, but I have flipped Johnson over Warren in all my rankings compared to how I had it last weekend.

You can find my full set of rankings if you are a paid subscriber!

One final item for the moment: Brian Robinson Jr. was traded today.

This has made zero impact on my thoughts for the Commanders since Robinson has been as good as gone for a while. It’s a nice bullet dodged for the Texans, Bears, Dolphins, Browns, and Saints backs.

For Robinson it’s a worst case scenario. I do not think he is a fit whatsoever for the 49ers zone scheme. Not only does he lack the speed of more recent Shanahan stars, but he does not profile as the type of gliding zone runner Alfred Morris or Arian Foster was either. Robinson is a power back who is at his best charging straight ahead through gaps.

I do not think this move says anything about Christian McCaffrey or will impact his opportunity share in the slightest. The 49ers have zero healthy backs behind CMC at the moment and it makes total sense they would add an NFL-level depth option to their team to absorb touches in the event McCaffrey gets hurt. I think you’re well within your rights to fade McCaffrey on health grounds but please do not fade him because of Brian Robinson.

The major impact here is to Robinson himself and the incumbent 49ers RB2 Isaac Guerendo. I very slightly prefer Guerendo due to fit, but suspect it would be a committee / competition between the two if CMC were to suffer an injury. I view them similarly to the Rams backs as high-upside handcuffs with uncertain roles. Both are draftable in the final rounds. Jordan James is firmly off the menu in seasonal leagues.

See y’all back shortly.

— Jakob