Free Agency RB Reactions (Part I)

First Mover Takes on D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert and more

I debated whether to write a Free Agency wrap-up post after the week or whether to discuss news as it happens.

I decided however that the first mover advantage is too important to forego. Dynasty markets have a way of settling themselves over time through word of mouth, ADP shifts and evidence from other leagues. If you want to get the best deals in reaction to breaking news it’s best to act fast. Your trade partner will have no frame of reference and may wind up doing something that becomes wildly below or above market in time.

It’s best to approach these moments with a strong internal take on a player’s new worth and trust yourself to beat the market. You certainly do not have to adopt my takes as your own, but hopefully sharing my stance on each major move and those affected helps you stake your ground on each player moving forward.

I will be focusing on Running Backs as that has always been my preferred position to write about and study in depth. I will likely have a brief wrap-up post which discusses other positions in coming weeks.

Let’s get into it!

David Montgomery to the Lions!

I’ll start with this move because it has a legitimate effect on three running backs.

Let’s begin with the highest valued player affected here.

D’Andre Swift

For longtime followers, you’ve seen me on both sides of D’Andre Swift debates. I was a huge fan of his as a prospect; combining viable size and rushing workload with a high-level receiving profile. He’s the exact type of bet we want to make in rookie drafts.

I remained a massive proponent of Swift moving into his sophomore season when he finished as the RB10 (PPG always unless otherwise specified). However, after this season I begun selling out of him in dynasty despite the sky-high upside of his receiving profile.

Swift produced -0.36 Rush Yards Over Expectation per attempt (RYOEA) that season. This ranked in the bottom quartile of qualifying rushers. More concerning to me was his 29.8% ROE%; the percentage of rushes over expectation. This ranked second to last in the NFL. While he scored very well in advanced metrics such as “yards created per touch;” these metrics emphasize receiving backs who are schemed into space on more of their touches. His PPR value and big play ability hid a rushing profile that was boom or bust and more often bust. PFF rated him with a 61.3 rushing grade and notably a 58.5 receiving grade; both among of the lowest for lead backs.

Entering the off-season as a top-five dynasty back, there was more risk than reward and he became a clear sell. At first glance, Swift improved in 2022; his PFF rushing grade improved to 83.2, and his RYOEA was a league average +0.32.

“Why is he not getting more touches?!?!?!” Screamed the fantasy community.

Watching his tape each week the answer was clear. Swift remained a mistake-prone runner; struggling to execute plays as designed, making errors in situational football and creating unnecessary negative plays. However, the Lions realized what Swift was and used him in a role that maximized his strengths and minimized his weaknesses.

The below clip was memed into oblivion, but I promise you watching Swift led to at least 2-3 less dramatic versions of this each week.

Josh Norris @JoshNorris

this D'Andre Swift screen only gained 8 yards zero clue why he cut it back inside go straight! the blocks were there

He operated in a three-way timeshare with Justin Jackson and Jamaal Williams. Williams was the primary early-down rusher and goal-line back, while Jackson took on conventional pass-down snaps; outlet and blocking work. Swift was used as a true “change-of-pace” back. His rushes primarily came in “tendency-breaker” situations; receiving inside zone looks out of shotgun, sweeps off-tackle, and toss plays. His receiving workload was consolidated toward primary-read routes; screens, angles, and wheels. While many pointed to the injury as the probable cause of his workload, I begun to think it was more about skillset.

Snaps in which assignment-abandonment was of more concern than explosiveness was a priority went to more responsible backs. Swift was used heavily when on the field, with his snaps catering to his skillset as a receiver and runner in space. He ranked outside the top-50 in average defenders in the box per carry, and 50th in the rate of stacked fronts. He still ranked 4th-last in ROE%. Swift was the same player he always had been. The only change was his work was better tailored to his abilities.

So what now?