Free Agency RB Reactions (Part II)
Miles Sanders is a Panther
For those who read yesterday’s post, I discussed the signings of David Montgomery, Rashaad Penny, Samaje Perine, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., as well as the impact of each signing on all affected parties.
Paid subscribers can check that out below.
As I said yesterday, I want to go over each running back signing in depth because, frankly, I just love talking about running backs. I will be setting aside takes on signings at other positions until an eventual wrap-up post.
I’ve decided to do a standalone, freely accessible write-up on Sanders to give free subs a taste. (All remaining free agency posts will be for paid subs only)
NEW: Just like the “Jargon Bin” on the theory posts, I’m going to put a “Metric Bin” at the bottom of each data-focused post so that I can avoid re-explaining for those that are aware of each acronym and term meaning, and ensure new subscribers aren’t left in the cold.
Lets’s get into it!
Miles Sanders is a Panther
In my pre-Free Agency rankings I had Sanders projected for the highest free-agency contract on the market, as well as signing with the Panthers; so first of all, pat on the back for the kid.
The Liam Neeson Index
Miles Sanders is a fascinating player to write about the day after David Montgomery. The two have been compared ever since coming out of college in 2019, and which player you prefer says a lot about how you view the value-add of a running back. I don’t think there is a wrong answer, but the two are as different as it gets for two comparably compensated players.
As discussed yesterday, Montgomery provides average starting-quality play in nearly all facets of the game. He’s rarely adding substantial value above a replacement level starter, but he is never a detriment either. There is a lot of value to that type of player. It takes pressure off the rest of your running back room when one player can fill every situational role adequately, and it doesn’t tip play calling tendencies to the defense. Especially for a team like Detroit with an excellent offensive line, your lead rusher can produce value in a “do no harm” role.
I coined a term called the Liam Neeson index to describe average starting players as either highly skilled but specialized, or average in all aspects. Miles Sanders scores extremely highly on the Neeson index. The man has a particular set of skills.
Analyzing Miles Sanders
My friend and former-colleague Noah Hills has charted Sanders vs. his teammates over a variety of metrics dating back to college. His work confirms the narrative on Sanders, which is that he has consistently produced net positive efficiency as a rusher, but done it on a below average success rate and typically takes advantage of lighter than average box counts.
Per PlayerProfiler, Sanders has never finished below 4.6 yards per carry, and has ranked in the top-15 in true yards per carry each of the last three years. However, playing in the RPO-heavy, shotgun-run focused Eagles system has had its privileges: Sanders has been outside of the top 30 in box-counts every year of his career.
Per RYOEA, Sanders has been consistently between 0.40 and 0.44 from 2020-22, with his ROE% rising steadily over that time. Personally I would credit a portion of his increased consistency to the addition of Jalen Hurts as a rushing threat in the zone-read system more than to Sanders himself; but it is likely a mix of the two.
Sanders is at his best in a shotgun-RPO based rushing scheme. He’s a “point and shoot” runner. By that I mean he is not the most natural runner, and he lacks an innate feel for setting up defenders and reading his cut-back lanes.
But in Philly his decisions were often made simple. Jalen Hurts was in charge of reading the defense and if Sanders got the carry he was usually firing through the gap behind a pulling lineman or a double team. The Eagles blasted the 49ers repeatedly on runs like these.
Because of this, I consider Sanders a “win more” runner. If you are able to generate favourable numbers Sanders’s natural speed and burst will get him to the second level consistently and churn yardage for your offense.
Sanders in Carolina
The fit with Frank Reich is a natural one. His offense has used a high-rate of RPOs whenever he’s had a quarterback with functional mobility (this even included Nick Foles). While C.J. Stroud was not much of a rusher in college, I see their presumptive 1st overall pick as a natural point guard who can run Reich’s scheme. If successful, you can expect similarities with this offense to Doug Pederson’s Jacksonville Jaguars with Sanders playing Travis Etienne’s role as a speed back to complement the Mesh/RPO heavy passing attack.
For fantasy production, Sanders’s best case scenario is likely not too different from his 2022. While he posted an acceptable 8.4% target share in college, and caught 50 balls for 509 yards as a rookie, his receiving workload has taken a massive hit ever since and this seems justified. Sanders ranked dead-last in YPRR last year, and has struggled with drops ever since 2020; leading to the Eagles deploying a committee approach.
The issues with Sanders are twofold. His struggles to make efficient reads make him an unideal short yardage back, and he is not a pass catcher. This combination of HVT deficiencies makes him a more useful real-life back than fantasy option. It also makes him a difficult cornerstone to build a running back room around, because the combination of receiving and goal-line skills isn’t necessarily found in the same compliment.
Our best hope is that the Panthers do not add another primary rusher and Sanders can operate as the goal-line back. Any receiving work we get is mostly a bonus.
The remaining caveat here is that he goes from a dominant offensive line to an average one, and leaves projectable positive game script every week in Philadelphia for a poor offensive environment in Carolina.
For that reason, I would not be sending more than a mid-2nd for him in dynasty. He’s unlikely to be consistent week to week and his ceiling is capped such that he’s more or less on par with any bench RB who falls into contingent work in a given week. Where I’ll be more excited to draft Sanders is best ball, where I don’t have to play pin the tail on the game script. A Round 7-9 price seems reasonable, and I think it’s possible that’s where he winds up.
Metric Bin:
RYOEA = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)
ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)
BAE Rating = Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating, A box-count weighted efficiency metric comparing a RB vs. his teammates created by Noah Hills
True Yards Per Carry: Yards per carry with 10+ yard runs discounted to soften the impact of outlier rushes (PlayerProfiler)
Juke Rate: PlayerProfiler’s tackle avoidance metric, combining both broken tackles and evaded tackles
YPRR: Yards per Route Run
HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and goal-line carries)