HHG Part 10: Who Wants to be a Backup?

Hitchhiking to Planets Unknown

Alright folks, we’re back for one quick rip through the back end of your drafts and the NFL’s RB rooms. By now we’ve discussed virtually every RB with a chance for a lead role, and backups to the league’s most “fragile” starters. But especially on Zero-RB or Hero-RB teams, you are likely taking scratch ticket RBs throughout the late rounds to generate contingent upside on your bench. 

In this final piece I’ll go rapid fire through the backfields left out of my HHG breakdowns with a quick synopsis on which backup I would prioritize, if anyone, and what the extent of their contingent upside might be.

San Francisco 49ers

WHO: Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Tyrion-Davis Price

PROJECTED BACKUP: Elijah Mitchell

OVERVIEW

The 49ers project to be among the league’s highest-ranked teams in xFP to the RB position in 2023, combining a run-first tendency with high-end efficiency and a pocket quarterback. However, much of this is a result of their lead back, Christian McCaffrey. While we have no sample with Brock Purdy outside of McCaffrey’s arrival, we have rarely seen the Shanahan offense funnel targets to the running back position unless there is a dynamic receiving weapon in the backfield. In between DeVonta Freeman’s peak in Atlanta and the McCaffrey trade, Shanahan’s backs have rarely been thrown to, including in 2021 when Mitchell served as the lead back. 

However, we have seen Mitchell legitimately impact the 49ers’ offensive tendencies alongside McCaffrey. In games without their 2021 draft pick, ‘CMC’ completely dominated work both on the ground and in the air, while Mitchell split carries evenly when healthy (44-44), and even received some portion of the goal-line work.

This speaks positively to both Mitchell’s possible standalone value in best ball formats, as well as him being viewed in a different tier than the rest of the 49ers backups. He’s in line for the lion’s share of touches if McCaffrey suffered an injury.

TALENT SYNOPSIS

Mitchell has been an efficient and effective rusher since coming into the NFL by most advanced metrics, and is a perfect scheme fit as a fast, decisive, downhill runner. To my eye, he was the more natural rusher on the 49ers last year, though of course McCaffrey adds much more to the offense given the threat he poses out of the backfield. I view Mitchell as a slightly more rugged, Atlanta-era Tevin Coleman.

While he’s never been relied on as a receiver, we’ve see him handle volume in bunches in 2021 and was seemingly the clear lead back to open 2022 before suffering an injury. With multiple injuries in both his NFL campaigns and to open this year’s training camp, it’s fair to be concerned if Mitchell can handle a substantial workload for a sustained period of time.

STANDALONE ROLE: I suspect Mitchell opens the year in a similar role to last year. He’ll mix in as the 1B runner without situational limitations, and pick up additional volume if the team plays from ahead in the second half; something you’d expect often in a weak NFC.

CONTINGENT UPSIDE: If McCaffrey suffers an injury, Mitchell could take on a 65-75% RB rush share with a clear advantage for goal-line work. Neither Jordan Mason, nor Tyrion Davis-Price profile as competitors for passing down snaps, but the 49ers have used Kyle Juszczyk for those snaps in the past, or simply not thrown to backs.The Shanahan offense executes so many pre-determined reads that the RB route share is less relevant than for most teams, unless you’re a strong enough receiver to be given primary reads.

Mitchell’s contingent role is likely similar to Travis Etienne or Miles Sanders from 2022.

OTHERS WORTH DRAFTING? Not outside of deep dynasty leagues. For what it’s worth, I prefer Mason to Davis-Price, but you’re likely depending on two injuries. 

TAKEAWAY: Relative to other handcuff options such, Mitchell is a better pick in best ball than managed because his standalone rushing role has more utility. Relative to more specialized role players such as Kenny Gainwell or Damien Harris, Mitchell is the superior pick in managed due to the higher contingent upside. 

Ultimately I think he’s priced fairly in all formats and should be layered into your portfolio whenever he fits your build. I prefer Jaylen Warren and Tank Bigsby universally because I see more upside in their contingent roles, but if you have two strong Week 1 options, Mitchell is my favourite contingent RB picks after Warren and Bigsby come off the board.