HHG Part Part 8: Division of Labour

Today we dive into the Backfields Bieniemy: Chiefs and Commanders

I have three more instalments on tap for the off-season Hitchhiker’s Guide. After last week’s 9,000 word epic on five polarizing mid-round RBs, this will be a more efficient instalment.

Backfields 18 and 19 in our journey through the universe share much in common. First of all, they share the common thread of former RBs coach and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who departed the Chiefs and now calls plays for Washington. Additionally, they are two of the least invested in backfields by fantasy managers. Only five backfields are currently without a member drafted in the first seven rounds. While the Dolphins, Bears and Eagles each have three consistently drafted options, the Chiefs and Commanders have (mostly) been treated as two-man shows.

My perception is these backfields are priced closer to their base projections than the “ambiguous” backfields we discussed in the first two editions of this column because the market has far greater confidence in the division of roles on these teams. In this piece, we’ll asses whether that confidence is warranted, which option has the highest upside, and what kind of threat the RB3 options in this backfield pose.

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NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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Kansas City Chiefs

The Environment

Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s run of futility sparked the notion that Kansas City is actually a bad environment for fantasy RBs in some circles. 2023 proved that incorrect. While split across different backs at different times, the Chiefs combined for 26.4 PPR points per game at the position, primarily driven by high touchdown rates. While it’s hard to project the timing of positive TD variance, any attachment to Mahomes keeps a TD bender such as CEH’s early-season renaissance or McKinnon’s best ball playoff performance solidly in play.

Talent Profiles

Neither Jerick McKinnon nor Clyde Edwards-Helaire hit my minimum carry threshold, so I’ve only included Isiah Pacheco’s three-level chart below. Pacheco did not hit my receiving cut-off of 20 targets, but I placed his YPRR and Receiving grade inclusive of the post-season in the chart in order to add some context, given his role grew in the late and post-season.

Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco’s rushing stat line is quantitatively impressive and consistent. Forcing missed tackles was a weakness in his college profile which carried over to the NFL. However, he was able to combine strong play-to-play consistency with the explosiveness he flashed at 216 pounds.

My amateur film take is that Pacheco is a fairly one-dimensional runner, but that dimension is an ideal fit for the Chiefs offense. He runs in a straight line very hard and very fast, which gives him a strong chance to burst through the line against teams who are generally more concerned with the passing attack. He adds the long speed to Forest Gump his way down the field for as much daylight as he’s provided. Part of the disconnect between his YAC/A and MTF/A stats — which are typically correlated — owes to his breakaway ability on the occasions he does get free of contact. But in Pacheco’s individual case, it may have just as much to do with his engagement style which seems to be running right at defenders and simply carrying them for 5-10 yards as he falls forward rather than ever attempting to truly break the tackle.

There is no stat for “yards during contact per attempt” but I would put the odds at -1000 on Pacheco leading it.

When a late-round pick breaks out as a rookie over a small sample on the league’s best offense, we should be fairly skeptical of how much they are responsible for their results. The fact Pacheco’s qualitative grade from PFF is less flattering than his quantitative metrics is concerning. However, given the Chiefs return the exact same backfield as last year, Pacheco need not be a superstar. The most important question is whether he provides enough of an edge over his teammates to maintain the rushing role he had down the stretch, and/or add more work in the receiving game in year 2.

Isiah Pacheco vs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I expected this to be the part where I explain that Pacheco was so much better than ‘CEH’ across the board it proved his season was not entirely a fluke and you should pencil him into the lead rushing role.

Admittedly, after completing my research I don’t think it’s as clear cut, but maintain last year’s 7th-rounder has more to offer.

Edwards-Helaire strongly out-performed Pacheco in MTF/A (0.20 vs. 0.15) while barely edging him out in YAC/A (2.97 vs. 2.96). His success rates lagged Pacheco in both man and zone, though he joined Pacheco as one of the top rushers in zone success.

The largest explanation for the discrepancy in raw efficiency (4.9 vs. 4.3 YPC) between the backs was a massive gap in yards before contact per attempt: 1.92 for Pacheco vs. just 1.28 for Edwards-Helaire. These backs rarely played together with CEH’s samples primarily compiled in the early season and Pacheco’s coming late in the year, but each had a similar role while serving as the lead back and saw similar box counts. It’s worth questioning whether Pacheco was actually adding more on his carries, or if the Chiefs simply tired of Edwards-Helaire’s carries ending too soon, and Pacheco was the recipient of positive blocking variance the staff mistook for improved performance.

I think Yards Before Contact has (even) more potential to be confounded by the play of teammates than most metrics but is not simply a description of fortune. After all, the goal of a running back on every play is to avoid defenders. It’s odd to me that many in the fantasy community afford almost no credit to the RB for avoiding defenders as long as possible. To this end, I suspect Yards Before Contact is more underrated than overrated as a measure of RB skill. We’ve some of the best backs of all time, most notably Jamaal Charles, sustain elite efficiency and team-mate relative efficiency off the back of extremely high yards before contact totals.

Edwards-Hellaire performed below par in RYOE/A and ROE% for the duration of his NFL career, which doesn’t discriminate between pre and post-contact play. The advantage in burst, coupled with plausibly superior decision-making likely comprises some aspect of the difference between the two backs. Beyond that, there’s probably some luck involved.

Overall, I’m not sure Pacheco is a demonstrably better creator than CEH. But working within the confines of this offense, where you're consistently facing spaced out defenses, Pacheco is able to provide similar value to another straight line speed back, Damien Williams, that CEH just can’t match. If the blocking is even between both backs in 2023 I expect the gap to narrow, and perhaps the Chiefs find a role for Edwards-Hellaire to mix in between the tackles. But overall I expect this to remain solidly Pacheco’s ground game.