HHG: Week 11 Sunday Drive

Warren be Scorin'

Welcome back to the Sunday Drive - where we break down each backfield shift from the previous week, look toward the waiver wire, and add some thoughts on trade targets or sell options moving forward.

Last week there was no Sunday Drive because instead we did FULL mid-season update to the Annotated Dynasty RB Tiers. They should be *almost* identical after this week with perhaps a few backs moving up or down as noted.

But now we’re back with a look at the week that was and a look forward at the stretch run before the fantasy playoffs. However, before we do any of that… let’s talk about Jaylen Warren:

The former UDFA has been a reliable play this entire year, at 12.5 PPG but has now turned in a new season-high performance in three successive weeks. While his backfield mate Najee Harris has been more reliable since the bye week, Warren has still out-scored him in 7 of 10 weeks and by 26 points season-long.

More impressive however is the advanced metrics profile. He ranks first in the following:

• Rush Yards Over Expectation per Attempt

• Explosive Run %

• Yards after Contract per Attempt

• Missed Forced Tackles per Attempt

In other words: he ranks 1st in every quantitative input of the “overall,” “contact evasion” and “post-contact” portion of my three-level charting. Pretty Good!!

I think the Tony Pollard season-from-hell has made the RB analytics community a touch more trepidatious with Warren, who is having more or less the 2021 iteration of the Pollard season arc: timeshare forced, getting flex-worthy production efficiency despite backfield mate still leading in snaps and dominating goal-line work, probably two years away from realistically getting the backfield “to himself.”

I have a few things to say about this comparison that in the summer was viewed as highly aspirational, but now carries more of a mixed tone.

First of all, leave it to me to say the Pollard hate train has run a touch far from the station. I’ve been trying to point out when possible that he looks much improved from an IRL stand point over the last three weeks. This is not shocking given he is returning from a significant injury, but due to his radioactivity within the community after infinite goal-line stuffs and some brutal early season performances (plus a lot of built up resentment from people who were forced to capitulate at digitial gun point in 2022), you can’t say it too loudly without needing to retreat into your burrow like a mole in fear of the inevitable ‘wac.’

His advanced metrics profile has stabilized to the point he’s effectively league average in RYOE and Yards After Contact, above average in explosive rate, and below in forced missed tackles and relative success rate. Essentially, he has the same profile stylistically has his career pre-2023, just downgraded across the board and with far more volume. But frankly, there’s not a massive difference overall between the quality of his metrics suite and that of several backs with much better PR, such as Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, D’Andre Swift, and Ken Walker. If he had just converted a couple more goal-line looks he’d not be such a talking point. Perhaps this week is the start of late-season surge on his part.

Back to Warren however, I think if people want to draw the Pollard comparison, they should at least be precise about it, and even more importantly, cognizant of the dangers in pattern matching. Depending on your perspective, you may be more or less confident in what % of Pollard’s efficiency regression was inevitable based on who he was as a player vs. how much was age, how much was injury, how much is scheme, or any other factor. Even if we say it’s a large part, while we know that on average part-time backs thrust into full-time roles see efficiency drops, we also know the amount varies and is likely based on a large aggregate of factors specific to the player and their circumstance that we can’t perfectly foresee ahead of time.

One of the points I always made in Pollard’s favour was that his box count data and efficiency distribution by run-gap didn’t profile like someone who would be incapable of taking on ‘low calorie’ work. He was efficient between the tackles and against all box counts. While there is a ‘wear and tear’ aspect to a work load increase, I didn’t expect him to be caught adding carries he’d never been utilized on before or that weren’t represented in his efficiency sample prior. Clearly this was not the skeleton key, but again… is that because work load increase is all that matters? Or were there other issues at play? The reality is we will probably never know for sure because there are never enough situations that are truly comparable - let alone the same - to get a reliable statistical confirmation of anything.

A big part of that is because most RBs who start as backups simply stay as backups. The combination of factors requiring a back to be as good as Pollard in 2020-22 or Warren in 2022-23, and not see a backfield to themselves typically requires a RB to be drafted late (or not at all) - or else they would be the type of anti-fragile bet a team would instantly give more work to when they show promise like Jahmyr Gibbs or De’Von Achane. You also likely need to be behind another elite RB or at least a RB who has a lot of team insulation, yet not one who plays so frequently that the backup never has a chance to rack up a sample of production.

Then, to ever “find out” whether that backup could handle the workload we need the incumbent to eventually move on and for the backup to be given a shot. For every Tony Pollard or Austin Ekeler ascendency there is a perpetually un-resolved Felix Jones or Duke Johnson.

So all that being said, I think the best thing we can do is try to view each player in a vacuum, though paying some mind to what we can gain from longer term trends when applicable, and understanding there is a lot we just don’t and can’t know for sure.

Warren is an interesting case in that his box counts actually *are* materially different from Najee Harris’s in a way Pollard’s weren’t from Elliott. I was cautiously optimistic with Warren after his rookie season but saw him more as a serviceable timeshare back with elite contingent upside stemming from an all-purpose skillset, though less excited about his true talent due to this fact. An outsized proportion of his carries in 2022 came on late-down draws or sweeps allowing him to rack up yards offered to him by the defense. In general, if there is a plausible reason why the UDFA RB isn’t actually a superstar I think we should believe it.

But in 2023 there is no denying that Warren is legitimately impressive, at the very least in his current role. One aspect Warren has in his favour over Pollard is his compactness. He’s just 207 pounds but at 5’8” he has a low centre of gravity that makes him a more natural fit as a through-contact runner both in short yardage and the open field than the taller, slimmer Pollard. I suspect this build may help him have more consistent success in the ‘ugly’ areas of the field and hold up over time, but it’s just another conjecture.

Perhaps the more exciting aspect is what if this team *doesn’t* force him into a specific, generic RB role. The NFL is becoming a ‘players not plays’ league in many ways, especially for the best teams. I tweeted today about Sam LaPorta’s splits when Detroit has both RBs healthy, and it’s worth emphasizing that the Lions are operating right now with RB1 usage for TWO RBs. When both are healthy, Gibbs is becoming a focal point in the short and intermediate passing game, and they’re just more comfortable running the ball more with two options to split the touches between. It’s something I wrote about in the off-season with respect to Pollard: Zeke or no Zeke there are only so many carries it makes sense to give him and the spill over can either go to another back or just mean more pass attempts. I’m not sure Matt Canada fits the bill, but creative offensive coordinators should be able to find 15-18 touches for Jaylen Warren every week given what we’ve seen this year and do so irrespective of who else in the offense. He’s an NFL quality play-maker and there is room for multiple of those to be impactful in fantasy and in real life on any team willing to use them as such.

Dynasty Recommendation: Buy for Up to Early 2nd, Sell for “Late” 1st

Note: Target 2025 1sts over confirmed late 2024 1sts if you can at this point

Let’s get into the rest of the article!