HHG Week 4: The Sunday Drive

Giving you the Headlines from Week 4 in the RB Universe

Hey folks,

Welcome back for another week of the Sunday Drive. For those who missed last week’s column, we’ve streamlined the format to break down the meaning of some of this week’s notable performances and major shifts.

I’ll be back for some pontification on Friday but for now let’s dive right in!

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NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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1. INJURIES AND FALL OUT

Aaron Jones returned from injury but was on a “snap count” per Matt Lafleur. A.J. Dillon continued to struggle, running lethargically and demonstrating inconsistent vision. The potential he once showed in 2021 feels like it’s lost to history at the moment. Jones offered only 2.4 PPR points but with the expectation he resumes his Week 1 role he can be considered a low-end RB1 moving forward. The Green Bay offense is not a top-tier unit, but Jordan Love has demonstrated base competence. With no Rodgers in tow, and Dillon offering little, it would not surprise me if we saw Jones utilized more heavily than has been the case for most of his career in 2023.

David Montgomery was the other back returning from injury last Thursday night and he was NOT eased in, seeing 32 carries and finding the end zone three times. I wrote a little about Jahmyr Gibbs and this backfield in my Friday column but from more of a macro-view. As things stand currently, Montgomery has a complete monopoly of the green-zone touches, and plays a portion of third-down sets for pass protection purposes. The Lions willingness to use him in passing situations of any sort will make him less volatile week-to-week than Jamaal Williams in 2022 because he’s unlikely to be entirely game scripted out, while he projects to pile up touchdowns when the team plays in extreme-positive game script as they did this week.

I’ve seen two schools of thought on the Lions’ usage on twitter. To one camp, the Lions are committing a heinous crime by burying Jahmyr Gibbs behind the plodding Montgomery. To others, you can’t dare question the decisions of any coaching staff because they’re playing to win games not help your fantasy team. I think both these viewpoints are rather silly and I wish I was purely fighting straw men here but I am absolutely not.

We’ve broken down Gibbs’ quite bit in the early-season, most thoroughly after Week 2. He has a clear edge on Montgomery in dynamism, but also very legitimate flaws as a processor. I’ve seen people refer to his impressive MTF/A rate, but watching him it’s clear that while Gibbs has very impressive contact balance in the open field, he does not run with power inside. You can’t simply transpose one stat to serve as a proxy for a RB’s abilities and then apply it to types of carries he rarely sees and has not been successful with.

Don’t take this the wrong way: I’m not trying to be critical of Gibbs or sound the dynasty bust alarm. His speed is a game breaker trait, and while his route-running has been somewhat inconsistent, he’s still winning vs. linebackers when they ask him to be the primary read. I don’t think the Lions are using their backs sub-optimally in the sense that Gibbs should be substituted for Montgomery on their existing diet of carries. But I do think they could find ways to make their run-game more creative to find more touches that fit Gibbs’ skillset. After all, they did draft him 12th overall!

They’ve used Gibbs on a lot of lateral motion in two-back sets, and I’d like to see them actually hand the ball off on those more often than just using him as a decoy. The Bills usage of James Cook is a strong comparable in terms of a team choosing to build a run-game around a scheme more conducive to the strengths of their lead back, with a much higher percentage of draws, sweeps and tosses among their RB carries.

All that being said, it may just be a game-to-game situation. The Green Bay Packers are perpetually poor run defenders, and there was no need to go away from simply pounding it up the middle while holding a substantial lead.

If you’re playing against a nail, you might as well use the hammer, not the swiss-army knife.

Over the course of the season, we’ll see matchups and game scripts that tilt more toward Gibbs’ domain, such as we saw with the Seahawks in Week 2 when he saw nine targets. The Buccaneers matchup this week should be an interesting case study. Todd Bowles is one of the blitz heaviest coordinators in the league. Whether they decide to match that with Gibbs eating in the screen game, or call on Montgomery for additional pass protection is TBD.

For the moment, I consider both Lions backs mid-RB2s, though Montgomery carries the higher floor/ceiling combination for as long as he combines a complete goal-line monopoly with a role in the passing game, including in the two-minute offense.

For what it’s worth, if drafting today I would still take Jahmyr Gibbs first. The Lions have played from ahead for the majority of the early-season while working in a talented but flawed rookie alongside a back who provides base competence in every area. It’s not shocking that it’s been a slow start. David Montgomery is never going to possess the type of receiving game upside Gibbs does, while the latter is just an injury away from a truly elite role. I also reject the idea that the Lions are not going to make any change to their rotation just because they haven’t for four weeks. It’s a long season. A month from now we could see improvement in Gibbs’ all-around game, and a string of matchups in which pounding Montgomery up the middle yields little success. Gibbs remains an anti-fragile asset given his talent profile and draft capital. He’s very unlikely to be phased out entirely, but should the offense face more resistance at any point he’ll be one of the first places the team may look to provide a spark. If they utilize him properly he will eventually provide one.

If you want more on Gibbs, you won’t find a better breakdown than Noah Hills wrote this past week.

Javonte Williams suffered a hip injury that kept him out for the game, leaving Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin to share the backfield during a 21-point comeback victory. Williams has been the clear lead rusher this season but has struggled to get much going off a multi-ligament knee injury. After he left, McLaughlin out-carried Perine and was far more explosive tallying 72 yards on seven carries. Perine remained in his passing down role, but did see the goal-line work ahead of the 187-pound UDFA.

After the game, Payton committed to re-evaluating McLaughlin’s role regardless of Williams’s injury and praised his play. Perine is a reliable pass protector and viable pass-catcher who can get what’s blocked in the run game, but he offers zero explosion. To this point in the year, Williams frankly hasn’t offered much either. I’d like to buy low on Williams in dynasty because I attribute most of his issues to the injury, which should presumably become less of an issue throughout the course of the season. However, McLaughlin is the best bet in this backfield to provide field-flipping plays right now. At 187-pounds I’m not sure he’ll ascend to a workhorse role, but should Williams miss time I expect McLaughlin receives more touches than Perine even if the latter sees more snaps due to soaking up pass-protection and outlet reps. When Williams returns, this may be the rare backfield which actually makes sense as a three-man unit. Samaje Perine is the best 3DRB on the team, especially while Williams recovers from injury, and there is no reason not give McLaughlin at least a portion of the touches next to Williams.

Perine’s path to fantasy value may be closed with the UDFA’s emergence and he mostly exists to deprive others of their fantasy ceiling. If Williams is announced out I would try to sell him for anything you can get, while trying to buy McLaughlin for anything less than a second-round pick in dynasty. Sean Payton has given fantasy-viable roles to non-traditional backs before including Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles before. Don’t count out McLaughlin as an emerging flex play and ‘bet on talent’ play over the long term. Similar to De’Von Achane, McLaughlin has plenty of experience holding up to volume as the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher. Unlike Achane, he did it at Youngstown State. However, he’s at least proven he has NFL-level skills and he absolutely has my attention.

Gus Edwards emerged as the all-situation workhorse this week despite Justice Hill being activated returning from turf toe. It’s not like Edwards is ever likely to provide much receiving value no matter how many routes he runs, and he’s eternally at-risk of losing goal-line TDs to Lamar Jackson, as he did twice in this one. If you have him, you can start him as a streaming RB2 on a week-to-week basis, but I’m not convinced this role sticks with another week of practice for Justice Hill either. We saw the Ravens swing wildly week-to-week with their RB usage last year, so there are worse ideas than ignoring this backfield entirely.

Jonathan Taylor is set to come off the P.U.P. list this week. I won’t attempt to speculate as to his mindset or health status so I’ll simply post some relevant considerations:

1. In order to accrue a year for contract purposes at this point, he only needs to play in a single game.

2. The two sides have not made any progress on contract negotiations and there is reportedly no trade offer on the table.

3. Zack Moss has seen a near-ever-snap role in Taylor’s absence and provided every-week starter value in an offense that’s played at an extremely fast pace and been more competent than expected with rookie Anthony Richardson under centre.

4. The Colts offensive line — much maligned last year — has rebounded in 2023 with improved health from their veterans and massive improvement from their youngest starters. Between the threat of Anthony Richardson as a runner, the play of this line, and Shane Steichen’s schematic ability, Taylor projects as one of the most efficient rushers in the league if comes back at full health.

5. Anthony Richardson has thrown at a much lower ADOT than expected, and thrown more in general than anticipated. Jonathan Taylor is a clearly superior pass-catching back to Zack Moss and could see 4+ targets per game in this offense.

Altogether, the range of outcomes for Taylor extends from playing one game and shutting down for the season with an injury to contending for RB2 overall (CMC is a class of his own at the moment). I’m definitely buying on any team with a value surplus, given so many of the structural concerns about the Colts offense limiting his ceiling have mostly been assuaged.