Hitchhiker's Guide to RB: Playoff Edition

Setting the stage for the backfields that could define your 2023 playoffs

Hey folks,

I’m writing this just after an absolute *whoof* of a game and I must tell you… nothing like a 63-21 blow out to encourage you to write an article scrutinizing in detail each backfield that you may realistically need to examine for a start/sit decision in your fantasy playoffs… but folks: that’s exactly what we’re doing today.

The reflective format of the HHG each week is - in my opinion anyhow - most worthwhile early in the season when we’re trying to assess what priors to immediately shift and what to stand behind. Even as we get through the middle of the year, trades are so frequent across dynasty leagues we want to put the focus on trends emerging across the league and highlight players to buy into or move off of.

At this point, all but a few (deranged) dynasty leagues have seen their trade deadline come and go, and the sole decision at the hands of fantasy managers is who to put in their starting lineup each week. (The dynasty trade deadline debate is my personal Roman Empire and I could write a full column on this if you want it)

What we’re going to do today is effectively walk through my week tier of RBs ranging from the no-doubt starters into the lower-end starting / flex candidates down to the streamers and desperation plays with an eye to their matchup, the trend in their backfield and any other worthwhile notes. For the more well-established backs in longstanding, stable roles, I won’t have any substantive notes. You know what you’re getting.

Let’s rock!

---

NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

---

* = injury-dependent ranking

Tier 1: Never bench… not even in a fire…

Christian McCaffrey

Kyren Williams

Alvin Kamara

Rachaad White

Bijan Robinson

---

These five backs figure to be the core of the DFS main slate this week (see my weekly DFS podcast with Davis Mattek on Sportsgrid), and should of course be in every single managed lineup. McCaffrey, Williams and White are the three backs who best combine an every-down role with legitimate passing-game usage every single week. McCaffrey of course separates from that group on his chance to provide explosive efficiency every week on top of that role, but all three are set up to smash in plus plus plus matchups.

The only roadblock to Rachaad White is his inconsistent rushing efficiency. It’s still poor season-long and remains a roadblock for me to fully buy in from a dynasty standpoint, but it has trended up of late. He’s eclipsed 4.0 YPC in three straight games after doing so just twice in his first 10 games. He’s been a predictable option this year in terms of taking advantage of plus matchups; hitting for 15+ points in four of his five opportunities vs. a team in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to the RB position. The Packers are that, and rank 23rd in EPA vs. the rush; a trend that’s persisted with this team since as long as I can remember.

Bijan Robinson has averaged 14.6 carries and 6.0 targets in three weeks since the bye, while Tyler Allgeier has fallen into a share of the number two role with Cordarelle Patterson. Most importantly for a contest with the flailing Panthers, Robinson has established himself as the lead goal-line back, giving him a monopoly of HVTs even if he’s splitting the overall load. Alvin Kamara presents a similar set up as a HVT-king who will likely cede low-calorie carries to Jamaal Williams in an equally plush spot vs. the Giants. These teams rank 29th and 32nd in EPA/rush, solidifying this as a top-five that is a clear tier above the rest of the field this week in terms of floor and ceiling.

Tier 2: If you’re Benching them you are bragging

Tony Pollard:

Pollard has quietly been #GoodAtFootball lately. He’s posted four consecutive 15+ point outings, and has ranked 6th in Explosive run rate and 16th in YAC/ATT since the bye-week; re-discovering some of the elements of his previous form.

Rico Dowdle has emerged to take on more of the rushing load, but this frankly is not a major loss. We saw early in the season that Pollard’s efficiency was evaporating in the face of 25+ touch games. I would also point to the matchup last week vs. Philadelphia - 28th in EPA/rush allowed - as one in which Dallas wanted to emphasize the run slightly more than usual. This meant splitting a higher portion of the carries. Pollard has still seen the vast majority of green-zone work, even in the past week when Dowdle vultured away a 1-yard TD after a Pollard run.

Buffalo has been victimized by explosive runners this year in Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, De’Von Achane and Pollard - if he can keep up his re-discovered form - fits the profile they’ve been most susceptible to. As an aside, I quite like him in DFS this week given how many strong alternate RBs there are in play to take ownership from him compared to the far weaker WR lineup to take ownership off Lamb.

Zack Moss

The process…. The process… The process….

Moss has demonstrated efficiency this year if not lately, and remains locked into a role comparable to the top-five backs we discussed in this column. He gets another plus-fantasy matchup in Pittsburgh this week as a home favourite and you just have to hope it works out eventually with TDs or efficiency.

Travis Etienne

Etienne saw his snap share rise back above 70% and appears to be back closer to full-health, while the Jaguars now find themselves just a sole game up in the division. This is a key matchup with seeding implications and I don’t see it as the type of game they can afford taking it easy on Etienne. The downside is they face one of the better defenses both against RBs and generally in Baltimore this week, though this is the same Ravens defense which Kyren Williams just took advantage of for what was in my opinion by far his most impressive performance of the year. We also have now seen Etienne post back to back efficient games in the receiving game with the Jaguars playing from behind, something the market expects to occur again this week.

D’Andre Swift

I mentioned Swift as my league winner pick on the Full Tilt Dynasty podcast this week due to an absolutely incredible playoff schedule that starts here vs. Seattle. The Seahawks rank 30th in EPA/rush allowed, but more importantly are especially susceptible in the receiving game. We’ve seen sharp coaching staffs such as San Francisco, Detroit and Washington build their game plan out of isolating Seattle’s linebackers - especially the elderly Bobby Wagner - in coverage situations.

The Seahawks’ defensive game plan is to force the ball into the middle of the field, and with a lack of foot speed at ‘backer, this leaves them especially liable to be victimized by pass-catching backs. I love both Swift and Dallas Goedert this week as likely game plan features in the screen game and with Swift likely to be schemed more angle and choice routes than typical.

Lastly, we’ve seen the Eagles resort to the run over each of the past two years both over the course of the season and in-game when their pass-first approach begins to falter. I would not be surprised to see them embrace a highly negative PROE in this matchup to kickstart their offense in playing to what they see as a reliable strength they’ve gotten away from. I love Swift this week as a bounce-back start and captain play for showdown slates on Monday Night.

Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

I’ve written about this backfield more than enough this year. Both will play on early downs, Gibbs will dominate passing downs, and Montgomery is preferred at the goal-line, though they have more interchange in their respective roles than I think most of the market gives credit for.

In a vacuum Gibbs is my preferred play because is floor / ceiling combo is generally higher with the receiving ability and the efficiency he can generate with some of his favourable rushing designs. However, this is a spot vs. a run-funnel defense as a home favourite where the environment may tilt Montgomery’s way. I have them as a toss-up relative to each other and both are top-12 plays.

Derrick Henry

Happy De-Hember everyone, he rises again. Henry’s role is extremely volatile these days with Spears factoring in to the game plan in all scripts and dominating in trail. However, Henry’s goal-line role is better than anyone in the league both in terms of his role relative to Spears, and how frequently Tennessee runs it inside the green-zone. Houston grades out 6th in EPA/rush, but they have played a cavalcade of the least efficient running games in the NFL this year so I’m fairly suspect at the extent of their turnaround. With C.J. Stroud looking doubtful, expect the Big Dog to have game script in his favour as well as a matchup that is better than the stats indicate.

Raheem Mostert

His role is largely un-impacted by Achane’s status. Last time the latter missed, Jeff Wilson played a similar role. The primary difference is a spike in HVTs to RBs as a whole when Achane plays because they scheme more for him when he’s out there. When he’s not, Mostert plays a similar role and has a similar snap count.

Tier 3: “Perfectly cromulent” starters

Breece Hall

Hall has effectively no chance in the run game right now but is being spammed with targets to compensate for that which makes him largely matchup and script proof. Lock in 10-12 points at worst and hope for TDs and efficiency.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is fairly similar to Breece Hall in that the offense runs through him but it’s a lot of empty volume along the way. He gets a tough rushing matchup this week and unfortunately does not see quite the same level of pass-game usage as his Metlife counterpart.

Ty Chandler

Alexander Mattison has been declared out and Chandler legitimately becomes a borderline top-12 start. The Vikings played him on over 70% of snaps when Mattison left the game and had already worked him into a true timeshare prior to the injury. They clearly value his skillset based on that, and the competition is non-existent: Special Teamer Kene Nwangwu, Fullback C.J. Ham, Practice Squad DeWayne McBride??

The Bengals have been a strong RB-matchup this year both on the ground and in the receiving game, and the Vikings move from the mobile Josh Dobbs to the stationary Nick Mullens who may be more prone to check down to the back. I would expect his role to be at worst a 2:1 split on early downs while ceding snaps in obvious passing situations to C.J. Ham. At best, he plays almost every rusing situation snap, losing only LDD work to Ham. He’s a legitimate priority start in this spot in my opinion.

Ezkiel Elliott

League winner Zeke faces his toughest test in this stretch with a game vs. the Chiefs. However, only Alvin Kamara averages more catches than the Patriots backs have per game this year, and he’s seeing effectively 100% of that role at the moment. His floor is fantastic, and very much in line with the other names we’ve discussed in this tier. Efficiency and TD equity will be a struggle but you’re likely locking in 10 points and hoping to run pure beyond that. I do suspect he will have multiple RB1 finishes to close the season if Stevenson misses the rest of the 2023 campaign.

Joe Mixon

Great role improvement in the passing game, and more than worth the trade off of losing some rushing work to Chase Brown between the 20s. It’s a nightmare matchup vs. the Vikings this week on the ground. He will need to build the whole plane out of screen passes.

James Cook

I’ve seen a lot of talk about his role improvement since the OC change and frankly I do not buy it. He’s still seeing sub-50 snap shares and losing tons of passing down work and short yardage snaps to Ty Johnson and Latavius Murray. He’s the only back on the roster they actively scheme the ball to but that’s hardly new. His role right now is largely similar to 2021-2022 Tony Pollard: he’s not the most likely back to get any HVT-situation snap, but is the back who all the fun plays are designed for. This means his weekly floor remains awful but his ceiling is genuinely exciting.

Ken Walker

He ran more routes but received fewer carries than Zach Charbonnet this week which was just… odd. I don’t really expect that to continue and instead for his role to look more similar to the split prior to each back’s injury. Like Cook, he doesn’t have the HVT-floor week to week but his explosive potential keeps him as a great option especially for underdog teams.

De’Von Achane*

If healthy, Achane rounds out the triumvirate of volatile high-end RB2s. He’s seeing more specialized work since returning from injury with more pass-game involvement but fewer goal-line opportunities. It all comes down to health here… as it seems to this season for the talented rookie.

Javonte Williams

James Conner

Aaron Jones*

---

The top of this category was mostly RBs with elite talent profiles and/or roles on horrid teams. The middle was filled with explosive backs with volatile roles. The bottom is backs whose efficiency and offensive environment are questionable, as is the matchup, but the role is assured enough to roll them out in the absence of superior options.

Jones is particularly risky coming off an MCL-sprain but he’s now in his second week of limited practice and would join a team in a playoff race. Additionally, A.J. Dillon is dealing with a broken thumb which could render him unable to play, or at least unable to contribute on passing downs. I’ve been bitten by trusting Aaron Jones too early this year at times returning from injury but with such an important game it’s hard to believe an active Jones plays in an even split with Patrick Taylor. Tampa is always a strong matchup for pass-catching backs and Jones benefits from a depleted receiving group.

Tier 4: Streamers

Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris

I will note here based on homer bias that the Colts run defense is likely underrated by most metrics due to the six-game suspension of Grover Stewart which recently concluded. With him and Buckner healthy it’s not a strong matchup for Najee Harris here, though as we saw last week the Colts are *extremely* susceptible to backs in the passing game given the passive zone defense of Gus Bradley and a deeply inexperienced linebacking corps.

I like the matchup more for Jaylen Warren than Harris and would play him straight up over Harris despite the latter’s preferred goal-line role.

Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Devin Singletary

This is your discount version of Conner, Williams and Jones. I will note that despite ranking 3rd in EPA/rush overall, the Bears have given up efficient rushing days each of the past three weeks. My main concern with Jerome Ford in this spot is the hand-injury he received an X-Ray on post-Week 13. Maybe it’s nothing of concern but his usage has been boosted with his receiving role, an aspect of the game that typically requires working hands.

Hubbard and Singletary are pseudo-workhorses right now with a monopoly of passing-downs, and a large majority of early-downs. The talent is questionable, as is the offensive environment and matchup, which puts them down here with the streamers for the week.

Tyjae Spears

Spears has emerged as the secondary receiving option on this team. His usage is non-traditional but he’s like a discount-James Cook right now as a guy whose team wants to get him the ball when he’s out there and do so in situations that are primed for efficient production.

Brian Robinson*, Antonio Gibson*

Brian Robinson is a limited participant this week in practice and if he goes I would rank these backs effectively equally. The Rams are a poor matchup on the ground, and the Commanders are expected to trail substantially in this game. If that happens, everything tilts toward Gibson as the passing down and catchup mode back, while Robinson would be a TD-dependent RB2.

If Robinson misses, Gibson’s outlook would be comparable to Chandler’s albeit in a much worse matchup as a back who could theoretically take on the vast majority of work, we just haven’t seen proof of concept yet. I would rank him in the back end of Tier 3.

D’Onta Foreman*

Foreman appears to be the backfield leader du jour for Chicago but it’s a tough matchup here vs. Cleveland for a back who is still splitting in two directions in a volatile backfield. You’re banking on a TD.

Keaton Mitchell

Jacksonville is not to be trifled with in their defensive interior anchored by Josh Allen, Travon Walker and Roy Robertson-Harris. If you want to have success on them running the ball you will have to get to the edges and that calls for more Mitchell and less Edwards. The issue is Justice Hill is still playing the empty-calorie passing down snaps which limits the upside of this play.

Kareem Hunt

He’s always a coin-flip to score and there is some contingency to his passing down workload this week given the Ford hand injury.

Jerick McKinnon,* Clyde Edwards-Hellaire*

I tweeted about preferring McKinnon last week in this backfield and I stand by that in a vacuum, though this is a game where positive script may dictate more CEH. My preference for ‘Jet’ comes from the mixed profile of early-down schemed passing work where his speed and short-area quickness profiles closer to Pacheco than CEH, and the package of plays he’s used on inside the red zone, in addition to a locked in LDD role.

It’s just difficult for CEH to rack up HVTs when he’s bleeding them in all directions to McKinnon even if he is the nominal starter with the projected touch advantage.

Patrick Taylor / A.J. Dillon*

One of these guys is going to play 40-60% of snaps next to a possibly returning Aaron Jones this week.

Tier 5: Desperation Starts

Jamaal Williams

The combination of a Taysom Hill injury and a matchup with the Giants sets up his best chance at a TD all year.

Chase Brown

Kid can play - great dynasty stash and you could do worse than trotting him out this week in the absence of options.

Zach Charbonnet, Roschon Johnson, Samaje Perine

Passing down backs in projected negative script.

Gus Edwards, Khalil Herbert, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders

Early down compliments who project for a handful of touches and **maybe** a goal-line opportunity, as a treat.

---

Metrics Legend:

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

BAE Rating = Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating, A box-count weighted efficiency metric comparing a RB vs. his teammates created by Noah Hills

RSR = Relative Success Rate, a metric created by Noah Hills to measure a running back’s rate of successful carries vs. that of their team-mates

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Juke Rate: PlayerProfiler’s tackle avoidance metric, combining both broken tackles and evaded tackles

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run

TPRR: Targets per Route Run

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and goal-line carries)