Hitchhiker's Guide to RB: Pre-Season Edition

The Single Best Column for the Several Worst RBs you can Put in your Lineup

It’s been a long off-season, but with Week 1 around the corner I’m extremely excited to announce the return of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB: the single best column for the several worst RBs you can plausibly put in your lineup.

This is the only column I will write every week in-season, and it will be published by — at the latest — Tuesday Morning, in time for your waiver run.

I will also aim to write more theory-focused columns when it is fitting to do so and I have the time. In the past these columns have focused on tear downs in dynasty, managing the dynasty trade deadline, in-season or playoff best ball contests, or anything that inspires me to write something during the year in addition to the HHG that week.

For those that are new, this column has been put together in a way that is actionable for all formats, including dynasty or seasonal leagues. It’s also a mix of talent-based evaluations, and usage-based commentary.

Typically the in-season column will go as follows:

• I may lead with an introductory topic if there is something I want to write some expanded thoughts on — perhaps a given RB’s recent play, or something more theorectical.

• Next I do an overview of the major injuries, and any expected fall out.

• Following that, I’ll cover teams that changed their typical utilization patterns and try to explain whether that trend will or won’t continue in subsequent weeks.

• In the next section, I’ll run down a list of waiver wire priorities.

• Finally I’ll close with the “streamer stock watch,” which will cover any RB with a closing ADP of 100 or later (Underdog), who in the week following the column projects for at least “Streamer” level production. I’ll discuss their dynasty value, but also cover where they stand in my classification clusters from my Annotated RB Tiers (See Below), and note whenever I make a change:

For Today’s Column, much of that does not apply. So instead I just wanted to re-introduce what this column is all about, and then for the rest of the way I’m going to briefly touch on my expectations of the Week 1 role for each streamer, plus some players further down the Board who I think may see their roles meaningfully grow over the course of the year.

Then I’ll be back post-Week 1 for the traditional version of the column. Just a heads up that I will be making the post-Week 1 column a free post so that any new subscribers can get an idea for the core of my in-season content, but all following columns will be pay-walled (beyond the introduction, if I write one that week).

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NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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PRE-SEASON STREAMER STOCK WATCH

Week 1 Priority Streamers

JEROME FORD — CLE: Perfect fit for managed-league ZeroRB builds to get you off to a fast start (like him far more in this situation than as a best ball tournament pick). Dallas struggled in run defense last year, especially against speed backs. They just don’t have the horses in the second level. Ford is the most locked-in Week 1 streamer. My expectation is a snap share in the 55-70% range, with majority of passing down snaps and carries, though D’Onta Foreman may mix in at the goal-line.

DEVIN SINGLETARY — NYG: Singletary gets a tough matchup with Minnesota, but he’s the best start he’s going to be in the early-season as the lone veteran with experience in Daboll’s system. I would expect 70% snaps or more, though many of them are likely to be of the empty calorie variety.

ZACK MOSS // CHASE BROWN — CIN: I’m grouping these backs together and I’d rank them nearly back to back this week without finding out more information on the nature of their split. My expectation early-on is that the split looks something like the Ford / Hunt split last year in Cleveland, where Brown is the primary receiving game option, and leading ball-carrier between the 20s, but Moss plays a few designated pass-protection situations, and leads in goal-line snaps. Given the Bengals open as a heavy favourite, Moss might be the slightly better play in Week 1. However, I’m betting on Brown to be the better play over the course of the season and will be keeping a close eye on how the backs look and how they’re used in their first game.

BRIAN ROBINSON JR. — WAS: Robinson is a heavy-favourite to lead his team in carries and goal-line looks every week, but Tampa Bay is a bad first matchup, as it’s a better defense to attack through the air, and that’s Ekeler’s role. He’s a safe play with a lot of uncertainty in the early-season, but he may need to score to breach 10 point this week.

Week 1 Second Tier Streamers

TYJAE SPEARS — TEN: The Titans are another split backfield I’ll be watching closely in Week 1. Pollard is the preferred start since if this split does get away from a 50/50 it’s probably in Pollard’s favour — he has “started” the two pre-season games. However, I do expect interchangeable usage. I would be surprised to see Spears below a 40% snap share, and wouldn’t be surprised if they split down the middle. I think the Titans are getting a touch more respect in Vegas than I’d have expected with a 20.5-point team total on the road in Chicago.

CHUBA HUBBARD — CAR: The only way Chuba Hubbard makes sense as a managed pick is if your roster is built to start him in the first couple weeks, so fire him up here. Unfortunately, the matchup here is brutal vs. New Orleans. I would project him to play roughly two-thirds of snaps and lead in all situations until Jonathon Brooks comes back.

AUSTIN EKELER — WAS: I’m low on Ekeler and higher on Robinson over the whole season. However, I could see Ekeler outscoring his teammate in this one given the pass-funnel matchup, and the fact the older Ekeler is going to be as potent in Week 1 as he’ll be all season. I think they’ll draw some designed stuff up for him in the receiving game to show off their new addition.

RICO DOWDLE ; EZEKIEL ELLIOTT— DAL: Dowdle is a high-risk start in Week 1 with so much uncertainty regarding the roles in this backfield. My prediction is he plays roughly 50% of snaps, with Elliott playing 35% and Vaughn mixing in occasionally, while Cook is a healthy inactive in Week 1. That prediction has massive error bars. If I had to guess, Dowdle plays two-thirds of the early downs between the 20s while Elliott soaks HVTs in LDD situations and at the goal-line. The bet is Dowdle winds up with the schemed receiving work, and can demonstrate early in the year he’s the superior talent. If he does, maybe he grows that role over time and generates a higher portion of HVTs. I would only start Elliott out of desperation. He likely needs a TD and Dallas’s team total is only 19.5 here.

JK DOBBINS ; GUS EDWARDS — LAC: This is another one where it’s hard to get a read in Week 1. I think it will be primarily the veterans from the jump, while Vidal probably has to earn his way up the chain over time. I don’t expect we see him for more than a series or two, and maybe not at all. Dobbins is the best bet for LDD work in Week 1, though I could be wrong about that since it’s never been part of his NFL role. It’s just even less plausible that Edwards take that on, and Vidal is a 6th round rookie in his first NFL game. Even Hassan Haskins is a Harbaugh favourite, but not a traditional passing down back. This is the backfield out of them all I have the least feel for, but I’ll say Dobbins and Edwards play about 40% snaps each, with Edwards getting a couple more carries and Dobbins a couple more targets. Whichever of Haskins and Vidal is active might get a couple series as well.

“Flexi-Cuffs”

ANTONIO GIBSON — NE: Gibon is a bit of an old school early-season Zero-RB streamer. Alex Van Pelt (along with Kevin Stefanski) typically used a designated 3DRB and 2 minute back in Cleveland, as has New England historically. If that’s the case in 2024, Gibson could see close to a 50% snap share in the first month of the year given how incredibly difficult New England’s schedule is, including a Week 1 game vs. the Bengals. The buzz in camp is also that they’re trying to emphasize the screen game at a higher rate — which makes sense given their offensive line concerns and a WR room that’s a work in progress. Gibson is the best fit for those plays. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average 9-11 PPR points out of the gate.

JALEEL McLAUGHLIN — DEN: I have shifted my view of McLaughlin after watching him receive and succeed on LDD snaps in the pre-season. At this point I think he plays clearly the 2nd most snap in this backfield Week 1, and it should be a mix of some LDD work, and a perhaps close to a third of early-down opportunities — during which he should get some designed screens and outside-rushing work.

KHALIL HERBERT ; ROSCHON JOHNSON — CHI: It’s hard to know what to make of Chicago’s Week 1 RB rotation, but Herbert is the most talented pure runner on the team. I do think Swift comes out with the bulk of the snaps in his first game after a big contract, but I suspect Roschon Johnson plays the bulk of passing down snaps, while Herbert mixes in for perhaps two series worth of rushing work on early downs. Give a player like him 6-8 carries and he could always break one. Don’t start Roschon Johnson here, just included him since I was going through the backfield in this spot.

ZACH CHARBONNET — SEA: At the end of 2023 he was playing nearly half the snaps most weeks, as a designated 3DRB, who would also mix in for occasional series. My guess is he opens as the primary 3DRB, but little else, given how positively they’ve spoken about Ken Walker. This is another one with a lot of uncertainty that’s worth paying attention to.

First-Tier Handcuffs

BLAKE CORUM — LAR: I think we see Corum get minimum one series in each half in Week 1, and maybe the “one” side of a 2:1 drive split. However, I’d be surprised if the takeaway from Week 1 wasn’t that Kyren Williams is the clear starter and everyone over-reacted. Whether that stays true all season I’m not sure, but I suspect that if Corum does close in on a 40%+ snap rate it won’t be in Week 1. I’m more concerned with his quality of play than quantity in his first NFL game.

TYLER ALLGEIER — ATL: This is another spot to watch after we’ve seen predictions of a true timeshare. I’ll call my shot and say Bijan Robinson plays minimum 2 drives for every 1 of Allgeier in the first half, and separates even further from that if the game is close.

JAYLEN WRIGHT — MIA: Ask me a month ago and I’d have predicted zero snaps for Wright in Week 1. McDaniel however has been hinting at a 3-RB rotation, and I’m wondering whether to believe him. I think he sees a handful of snaps here, while Mostert and Achane largely split the rest down the middle, with Achane’s work tilting toward the pass game.

SAMAJE PERINE — KC: The variable here is how much Perine can handle in his first game with the team, so I’ll say that by Week 3 I suspect he’s playing every 3rd and long, and possibly even the two-minute drill. We’ve seen similar profiles — veteran receiving backs with sufficient size — in Jerick McKinnon, Darrel Williams, and Damien Williams all hit a contingent ceiling in this offense and Perine fits in well with that.

TY CHANDLER — MIN: Kevin O’Connell typically uses a 2:1 drive-based rotation and I suspect that’s what we see here with Chandler in the “one” role.

BRAELON ALLEN — NYJ: The hope for Allen is he’s the only RB other than Breece Hall to touch the ball in Week 1. His managers likely also want to see him get designated short-yardage work. I think both those things are live to happen, though I would place a ceiling on his snaps at 20-30% in the first week.

RAY DAVIS — BUF: For week 1 at least, it would not surprise me if Ty Johnson is the second back in the game. The Bills used dual relief backs at times last year and probably will to start out here. Keep an eye on how Davis plays with any snaps he does get, to see whether he can close out the RB2 competition quickly.

JORDAN MASON — SF: If things go as we expect, McCaffrey will play 90% snaps or more in Week 1. Mason might get a few plays, but we largely will be in the dark on the extent of his contingent value until or unless McCaffrey gets hurt. He’s the clear RB2 but Guerendo may have some life to mix in.

MARSHAWN LLOYD — GB: I’m not even sure if Lloyd plays Week 1, so it may be Emmanuel Wilson out of the gate. I think the Packers would prefer to keep Jacobs under 70% snaps but he could put up the heaviest workloads of his season early on given the health issues behind him.

Stashes with Standalone Path to Late-Season Starting Value

JONATHON BROOKS — CAR: Eligible to return from PUP in Week 5.

TREY BENSON — AZ: My guess is Emari Demercado plays the LDD snaps and Benson is given 1-2 series in the first week. People will make fun of his drafters on twitter. This is one to remain patient and calm with — it’s a contingent play with hopes his talent wins out over time.

BUCKY IRVING — TB: This is another one where my expectations for Week 1 are very different from my expectations season long. I bet we see Rachaad White play 70-80% snaps in the first week and his drafters will gleefully take to twitter and make fun the stat nerds who propped up Bucky Irving. The matchup is great here so White might even go for 20+. This is a spot you want to be thinking through for the long haul.

KIMANI VIDAL — LAC: I have less certainty about this spot than with Irving as I mentioned when discussing his teammates, but I don’t expect much here early on. A Week 1 healthy scratch is even plausible. If he does play, the hope is he pops and gains more work in coming weeks.

NICK CHUBB — CLE: Eligible to return from PUP in Week 5.

Second-Tier Handcuffs

TYRONE TRACY — NYG: Interested to see how he looks given the unconventional college profile. We want to see him pull away from Eric Gray as soon as possible.

AUDRIC ESTIME — DEN: I’ve reduced my early-season expectations after watching McLaughlin play an expanded role in pre-season. I suspect he gets a few touches, but Williams might dominate carries to start the year.

WILL SHIPLEY — PHI: I wager Gainwell is the second back we see, and it might stay that way as long as Barkley is healthy. The contingent role and the compliment role aren’t necessarily aligned in this offense.

TANK BIGSBY — JAX: Here’s a player I can’t wait to watch. I liked him as a prospect, though he was the worst RB in the NFL by a wide margin last year. Supposedly in for an expanded role, I suspect he plays 20-25% snaps as the clear cut RB2, and may be live for some short yardage work. I want to see if he looks quicker (physically and mentally) this year.

TREY SERMON ; TYLER GOODSON — IND: Unsure if Sermon will play Week 1 as he works through an hamstring issue. Goodson is in theory a 3DRB type but has very little NFL experience and in his last appearance he dropped a 4th down reception from the 10 to extend what could have been a division-winning drive. I can’t imagine Steichen is excited to take Taylor off the field for him in high-leverage situations with that memory fresh in his head. I think we might see Taylor lead all backs in snap share this week.

ALEXANDER MATTISON ; DYLAN LAUBE — LVR: Zamir White is clearly going to play a lot of early downs, and it sounds like he’ll play very few passing downs. The question is who plays those: if it’s Mattison then he becomes not the absolute worst end-of-bench option in the world.

JUSTICE HILL — BAL: I suspect we see Hill play 40% of snaps or more here, but touch the ball far less. Henry always plays fewer snaps than you’d think for his touch count, and Hill always plays more than you’d think for his: a match made in heaven for some empty calorie pass-pro reps from Hill.

CAM AKERS ; DAMEON PIERCE — HOU: I actually expect Akers to operate as the primary backup here after looking way better in pre-season. Mixon might play 80% snaps however.

JAMAAL WILLIAMS — NO: The team acronym matches my thoughts on this player.

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Metrics Legend:

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

BAE Rating = Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating, A box-count weighted efficiency metric comparing a RB vs. his teammates created by Noah Hills

RSR = Relative Success Rate, a metric created by Noah Hills to measure a running back’s rate of successful carries vs. that of their team-mates

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Juke Rate: PlayerProfiler’s tackle avoidance metric, combining both broken tackles and evaded tackles

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run

TPRR: Targets per Route Run

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and goal-line carries)