Hitchhiker's Guide to RB Week 1: Part 1

Breaking Down Every Backfield from Every Game

Hey folks,

As discussed, I will be writing my HHG in two parts in-season. Typically that will be a high-level post shortly after the week’s games focusing on some backfields with major shifts or injuries, followed by a deeper dive into a couple players or trends in my late-week column.

This week I’m doing things a little differently.

First of all, all of this week’s first column will be available to ALL subscribers to give you a tease of what my in-season content will feel like. Almost all my in-season HHG work will typically be pay-walled (though I always put some free content off the top of my pay-walled posts, and will mix in some other free posts from time to time).

Second, I’m going to address every backfield, though not in excessive depth. The reason for this is I want you all to have a baseline on where I’m at with each backfield. I discussed them all in some capacity in the off-season, but this week’s writing allows me to update those priors for you after seeing some game action. From here, if I don’t discuss a backfield at all in a given week, assume that my stance is generally similar on it to the week before.

Today I’ll get through half the backfields including each game I think has potentially significant waiver wire considerations. I’ll walk through the remaining later in the week.

NOTE: as we get further into the season I will rely more on qualitative data, but the samples are so small I’m generally going by usage and my eye test. Usag data is cited from Pro Football Focus.

Jaguars v. Colts

This was an extremely fun game between two young Quarterbacks I hope we get to watch duel for years to come. But one backfield was much more fun than the other.

Travis Etienne started for Jacksonville and played 80% of snaps including domination of passing down work with 30 of 35 routes. An interesting note on Jacksonville is they had a running back in a route on every single pass play, rather than keeping them in for pass protection. (Note: a RB can provide a ‘chip’ block and then release into a route, but no RB remained in pass-pro for the entire play)

Etienne looked solid for the most of the day making good decisions and showing his typical burst against a formidable front starring DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. But it was not until his final carry that he truly broke through for a major gain, bouncing outside from behind his linemen on a broken play, into the open field and splitting the remaining defenders for the game-sealing TD. It was one of the more impressive runs of the weekend and shows you the type of dynamism a player like Etienne can offer. Most importantly to me, he showed much improved pass-catching form. He caught all five targets which included a designed screen pass, a swing pass, and three check downs. He had one “body catch” on a check down leaking out to the right but it was admittedly a tough angle and he caught it cleanly.

Generally speaking he looked more comfortable and fluid running routes, accepting the ball, and turning upfield than he did last year. If this keeps up all year we’re definitely talking about a top-half RB1 ceiling.

Tank Bigsby mixed in for 20% of the snaps and five carries. He made a few brutal mistakes but also had some positive signs. He volleyed his lone target directly into a defender’s arms a la Kadarius Toney. But Doug Pederson gave him the next series showing confidence in the young back. His second mistake was an odd play where he “recovered a fumble,” but didn’t know it was a live ball, allowing the Colts to re-take possession and ultimately return it for a touchdown. It was a really strange play that only matters so far as it hurts the coach’s ability to trust you. Luckily for Bigsby he was redeemed with the go-ahead TD score late in the game. It came on a one-yard plunge after he made his best run of the day from the eight-yard line, keeping upright while his linemen pushed the pile all the way to the doorstep of the end zone.

I’m not sure Bigsby is “the goal line back.” But he’s definitely a part of their short yardage plans. He took their loan goal-line series but it came after Etienne had just played eight straight snaps, so it could have been a coincidental rotation. But overall Bigbsy played roughly half the short yardage snaps including the majority of those from a “jumbo” package. On one of these in the first quarter Etienne had two straight touches, walked back to the huddle before being subbed out, and then subbed right back in for the first down play. This one especially seemed intentional for Bigsby to get that touch.

For what it’s worth, I thought Etienne was the much more impressive and reliable back in this one, generally making better reads and hitting the line more decisively. But Tank is the more powerful player.

If you have Etienne, be excited about the pass-game usage, the quality of his play, and the upside of that role in the offense. Even splitting goal-line work, this is an RB1 role. If you have Bigsby, be happy he has a designated role on the team and that he made two costly mistakes and was still trusted with the rock in a crucial situation.

It’s a great sign for both backs that JaMychal Hasty was scratched. This speaks to the comparative advantage theory I laid out for this backfield where some of Etienne’s rushing load could fall on Bigbsby, allowing Etienne to subsume the former pass-down role of Hasty without being overly taxed.

I’m excited about both backs here, but Etienne is definitely the headliner.

The Colts side was a great reminder that even if RBs have limited value in the grand scheme of team building, you certainly can feel the difference play to play between an elite back and sub-replacement level options. Deon Jackson operated as the every down back but completely bricked the opportunity turning 13 carries into 14 yards and losing two fumbles. He didn’t have much room to navigate but he made nothing happen and was a liability with the football. Evan Hull got hurt after starting to mix in, but this was never a rotation until Jackson forced Shane Steichen’s hand to give someone else a shot. Jake Funk played some snaps in the hurry-up drive once Hull was ruled out. If Zack Moss is healthy he could get a ton of work after Jackson floundered and Hull suffered a knee injury. But unless the o-line gets a much better push, Moss won’t provide much value given his talent limitations.

The Colts were also much more pass-happy than anticipated, even before their run-game proved ineffective. Perhaps that changes if and when Jonathan Taylor returns, but overall it’s a good sign for anyone on this team that they’re willing to play aggressively in Richardson’s rookie year. This is not a quarterback column but I’ll say I was extremely impressed by what we saw from him and encouraged by the way Steichen let it rip. I think he has a bright future and this Colts offense could be legitimately fun for all its relevant fantasy assets if Taylor comes back.

TAKEAWAYS: Etienne stock up with increased receiving work, Bigsby stock stable with defined role and coach’s trust through mistakes. Colts environment better than expected but lacking RB talent

Ravens v. Texans

I’ll start here with what was the lead injury storyline of the weekend at least prior to Monday Night Football. JK Dobbins ruptured his achilles tendon early in the second-half and will miss the entire season. We know the data on RBs with Achilles injuries by now and it’s quite bleak, with the best success stories coming from D’Onta Foreman after years in the wilderness, and to some extent Cam Akers, who we’ll get to later.

Dobbins now enters free agency in a year he will almost certainly be an ineffective player. So in order to return any value in fantasy we likely need a team to take a shot on him entering 2025 in his Age-26 season, four years removed from his dynamic rookie year. It’s an extreme long shot, and he’s in 3rd-round rookie pick value territory in dynasty now. More importantly it’s a heart-breaking development for a player who had fought to come back from a devastating multi-ligament tear, and had yet to earn a second contract. My heart goes out to him.

Moving forward it’s a messy backfield. Dobbins played over 80-percent of snaps before exit dominating in all situations. It truly looked like we were set up for the smash season we’d hoped for in this new offense. In his wake, Justice Hill had an extremely narrow lead over Gus Edwards in snaps, attempts, and routes. With exception of one chunk run through a wide-open lane by Edwards, neither got anything going.

Joining what is at best a two-man committee is Melvin Gordon, elevated from the practice squad. The Ravens also have Keaton Mitchell on I.R. who was a pre-season standout and speedster, and may call up a free agent, the most natural of which is Kenyan Drake who had some nice moments with Baltimore last year.

There was a reason JK Dobbins went in Round 6. Despite our optimism for a workhorse role in every situation, and our belief in his talent, I even had concerns about his true ceiling alongside Lamar Jackson. Now that this workload will be split among at least two backs if not more, each of whom will be at a major talent deficit to Dobbins, it’s just hard to get too excited. Hill and Edwards should be rostered in every league, and Mitchell in most dynasty leagues, but most likely you are hoping for a weekly flex play.

On the Texans side, Dameon Pierce was the lead back but ceded far more snaps than anticipated in pre-season usage. For what it’s worth, the Texans closed the game with 17 straight pass plays as the game fell out of hand, which is when Mike Boone racked up several of his snaps. Prior to that, it was Pierce playing the lead role, but Singletary mixing in for some carries. Pierce out-carried Singletary just 11-7 though he did run 22 routes to the former BIll’s 5. Meanwhile, Mike Boone played 10 of 15 third downs.

Singletary was totally ineffective in this game, but in order for Pierce to be more than a back-end RB2 in this offense, he will need to completely set aside one of these two other backs. We either need every carry or domination of routes. For now, his role is too fragile. Even if I felt he was a touch over-valued, I remain convicted on his talent and I hope they decide to put more on his plate as the season goes along.

The Texans staff made similarly curious choices with their WR rotations. Nico Collins was clearly the best WR on the field for them with a 28% TPRR, 2.05 YPRR and 61% Air Yards share, yet they committed to a four-man WR rotation even without John Metchie. I hope and expect that as the season goes on, the Texans let their best young players have every opportunity to produce and develop, but for as long as snaps are being wasted on Noah Browns and Mike Boones it’s a legitimate downgrade to their ceilings.

TAKEAWAYS: Dobbins injury devastating, not a buy low in dynasty for anything significant. No great answer on the Ravens but pick up all options. Pierce stock down but talent may rise to the top in-season.

Chargers v. Dolphins

I’ll start with the backfield that entered the game in constant transition, the Dolphins. With Jeff Wilson Jr. on I.R., many expected rookie De’Von Achane to play an enhanced early-season role, but instead he was made inactive in favour of Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks. Brooks did not register an offensive snap, so the inactive vs. active designation was really a special teams decision.

Mostert got the start and played 46 of 62 snaps. Ahmed did receive the only short yardage carry of the game and played the slight majority of third downs, but Mostert monopolized all seven goal-line snaps, and scored a TD. The Dolphins are a pass-first offense and are as liable to pass to their full back Alec Ingold as they are Raheem Mostert, so the production won’t be as elite as the usage. But it’s still a very strong role given how frequently this team visits the red zone. He’s an every week start until this role shifts materially.

In shallow ‘home’ redraft leagues it’s possible you don’t have any more appealing cuts than Achane. But I would look to hold, and am not panic selling in dynasty. From last year, James Cook and Rachaad White each hardly touched the field in Week 1 and both are current starters. Tyler Allgeier was a healthy inactive but was the clear lead back down the stretch run, and proved to be quite a capable player. Coming off a shoulder injury with a lot of missed time in camp, Achane’s week 1 scratch is not determinative of the direction of his career. Is it possible, or maybe even more likely, his career follows the footsteps of Tyrion Davis-Price, Trey Sermon, or Keshawn Vaughn than those backs who bounced back from early season roadblocks? Perhaps. But as a believer in the talent I’m at least holding the line into the mid-season.

On the Chargers side of things, I owe an apology to Joshua Kelley. After lambasting the team for entering 2023 with an unserious backup RB, he handled 16 carries for 91 yards and a score. Austin Ekeler is now nursing an ankle injury, making Kelley a top priority on waiver wires.

I watched back each of his touches this week and I don’t think he’s truly transformed as a talent. He looked like he had more juice than past years, but for the most part this run-game was a product of a great performance from the O-line. I rarely saw Kelley evading tacklers or creating additional yards, but in fairness he didn’t make any mistakes either. He followed his blocking, put his head down and got what was available to him, which is all you can realistically expect from a budget backup RB.

At the very least, his performance should be sufficient to give him first crack at the RB1 gig if Ekeler misses time. I’m definitely more bullish on Kelley than when I last wrote about him, at least from a role perspective, but he did not catch a pass in this game, and I still have questions on who takes the passing game role with Ekeler out and a week to game plan between Kelley, Spiller and Dotson. It’s also possible under Kellen Moore, this offense will just de-prioritize the RB’s involvement in the passing game when Ekeler is out.

For now, I’d rank Kelley as a mid-range RB2 with Ekeler out who has upside for more and a fragile role if he fails to perform. I’d be prioritizing him above Justice Hill on waivers even if the window of use is smaller, because the role appears much more tantalizing.

TAKEAWAYS: Kelley is a major waiver priority, and looks improved as a player this year (though not as talented as his stat line suggests). Mostert is an every week start until further notice, and the only active RB from yesterday worth rostering in shallow redraft leagues. De’Von Achane stock is down, but I’m holding at mid 2nd value in dynasty until further notice.

Rams v. Seahawks

I’ll start with the Seahawks. Ken Walker served as the workhorse back with Zach Charbonnet mixing in on early downs and DeeJay Dallas playing the two minute drill and some 3rd downs — though they were ultimately split three ways. Like Travis Etienne, Walker also saw five targets but turned them into just four catches for three yards. The main driver of this was a six yard loss on a screen pass where Walker took a poor angle leaking outside the tackle so he was entirely exposed, in front of the circling defenders and well behind the line of scrimmage when he caught the pass. Geno Smith should have thrown it at his feet, but If he takes his route between the tackle and guard the play is better disguised and he may be behind the defenders when it’s caught. Hard to fully say how much that’s on Walker himself or if it was a flaw in the design of the play just from watching. One of his other catches was a tap pass on a sweep that gets you a PPR point but was not in truth a receiving play.

This backfield seems just a tick behind the analogous Jaguars in the timeline, since Deejay Dallas is still kicking around while JaMychal Hasty has been abandoned. Hopefully that gets rectified soon. If it does, you’d think it’s more likely Dallas’s snaps go to the rookie being forced to wait his turn, than the veteran who has yet to fully displace Dallas to this point. But it’s also possible that as Charbonnet gets more active in other areas they decide to give all the passing downs to Walker under the comparative advantage theory. My only hold up there is I don’t think Walker has a comparative advantage in any passing situation.

Walker’s athleticism still pops off the screen, and he had one very impressive run where he was stick behind his line, popped outside and picked up 15 similar to Etienne’s TD run. However, worth noting he was below par in RYOE/A and ROE%.

The Rams backfield was more unexpected with Kyren Williams taking the lead. Akers was completely ineffective toting the rock 22 times for 29 yards, and posting a -1.94 RYOE/A only ahead of Rachaad White. The largest issue with Akers is it echoed his early-season usage when he got a carry on virtually every snap, allowing the defense to key in on him from the jump. I have no idea if Akers can be a good RB in this league, but if they want effective play from him he can’t be getting 22 carries on 28 snaps. It’s an impossible ask. He’s always been a more effective runner when used in all situations to make his carries less predictable. Either they should give him workhorse duties, or simply abandon him for someone they trust more in non-running situations.

Kyren Williams was the lead back doubling Akers in snaps, and taking 15 carries of his own with all the pass-down work. He succeeded expectation on 8 of 15 carries which beats Akers’ 3 of 22. Despite his size, he still saw two TDs on two goal-line looks. I definitely under-estimated the Rams willingness to use the diminutive, un-athletic Wiliams as a legitimate lead back, but at least for now that’s their plan. He’s a strong waiver add, but i would sell for any 2nd round pick in dynasty. We don’t tend to see these profiles last as lead backs and the Rams have used Darrell Henderson as a placeholder workhorse before without ever committing to it long term.

TAKEAWAYS: Seahawks backfield largely unchanged from pre-season expectations. Start Walker every week, hold Charbonnet. Cam Akers needs to be benched until further notice, sell for any 2nd. Kyren Wiliams also a sell for a 2nd but the preferable start for now in all formats. Target Zach Evans in dynasty as a stash in case Akers falls out of their plans, but Williams fails in this enhanced role.

Bears v. Packers

There is nothing overly interesting here with the Packers usage wise. Aaron Jones operated as the clear lead with A.J. Dillon as the 1B. Dillon’s struggles from last year carried over at least for one game turning 13 carries into a paltry 17 yards. Jones meanwhile was completely electric turning in two huge receptions. We’ve seen ageing players start the year hot when they are freshest before declining down the stretch several times, but for now Aaron Jones looks to still be one of the premier RB talents in the league. He did exit the game with a hamstring injury but is apparently fine and expected to play this week. He’s an every week starter.

As we discussed in the pre-season content, his upside relies on Jordan Love to exceed my expectations. I’m giving him an incomplete on this one. He played a clean game and did everything you could expect, but half his yardage was from two Aaron Jones screen passes and a broken play to Luke Musgrave with nobody in a 30 yard radius.

On the Bears side, I think people are reading this game wrong, but may end up correct in the long run anyhow. Basically, the top end numbers show a three way split with Roschon Johnson leading in snaps and targets. But much of this was in ‘garbage time.’ At half-time the touch count was 9 for Herbert, 5 for Foreman, and 0 for Johnson. He started working into the game plan midway through the third quarter down 17-6, but saw all but four of his touches once the game was already at 38-14.

On the Bears final two drives totalling 19 plays, Herbert did not play a single snap. If you exclude those, he was at 27 of 55 snaps for the game: certainly not an ideal rate, but he was the most played back. If this role remains stable, you’d expect him to oscillate between 50-60% of the snaps while the game remains in doubt depending on the game script, since he’s primarily a rushing option.

All that being said, the reason I think the Johnson buyers could wind up being right regardless is that the rookie looked fantastic. He caught the ball effortlessly, consistently won engagements with defenders, and looked charged up with juice and power. He was not the lead back in this game despite the box score, but if the Bears make him the lead back soon based on his play, that would not be surprising.

For his part, I don’t think Herbert did anything to lose his role. He didn’t get much going on the ground, but I didn’t see any major mistakes. He had an impressive catch and run on the opening drive flashing his explosive ability, and it was nice to see him secure 4 targets and add efficiency through the air. In total, Fields targeted his backs on 15 of 34 throws, a tendency he never showed last year. Whomever is the lead option in this backfield gets an upside boost if this trend keeps up, and it could make two of them flex-worthy if it remains a split.

D’Onta Foreman also registered a sizeable role in this game, rotating in as the 1B to Herbert in the first half and remaining part of the rotation deep into the 4th quarter. I think Foreman is a fine player, but three is a crowd. Roschon Johnson deserves more snaps, and Herbert has done nothing to lose them. I think this backfield moves toward a two-way split between Herbert and Johnson sooner than later, with both as viable flex plays. I’ll be watching the Bears closely next week and will have a detailed report on them in the Week 2 Hitchhiker’s Guide however it shakes out.

TAKEAWAYS: Aaron Jones is still a dude, A.J. Dillon looks more like 2022 Dillon than 2021 Dillon thus far. Jordan Love played fine, but not as well as the stat line shows. Roshcon Johnson’s usage is a mirage, but the talent shined through. Expect his snaps to increase moving forward, initially at the expense of Foreman. Herbert started and his pass-game involvement is a plus, but Johnson is a legitimate threat. He was the most impressive back on the field today.

Eagles v. Patriots

The lead story here is the Eagles backfield. When Rashaad Penny was ruled out I was very excited to have peeled off Penny and on to Swift in response to late-season reports. My expectation was they’d either rotate drives between Gainwell and Swift, or use Swift on early downs with Gainwell on passing downs and mixing in elsewhere. That was not the case. Gainwell doubled Swift’s snaps and did so in all game situations. Swift was used evenly with Gainwell on pass plays while the latter out-carried him 14-1. Based on the usage overall I don’t expect the split to be that stark, but for now this is Gainwell’s job.

My case for Swift is that the only back on the roster who could match his explosiveness while not giving anything back in terms of consistency was Penny. If he was out of the mix, Swift would inevitably edge out Gainwell due to the talent gap between them. That clearly did not play out in Week 1, but I still expect that it will. Despite the workload, Gainwell was at -0.42 RYOE/A and 28.6% ROE% in this game. He did not create anything beyond what was blocked, which is in line with his NFL sample throughout his career.

All the reporting on this backfield from team sources this summer suggests it is fluid, as does the level of investment in each member. If you want to start a RB this week, it’s Gainwell for now. But do so cautiously, and look to sell him for a mid-2nd in dynasty or a buy-low RB in seasonal if you can. I think he’ll have a role all season long, but want to bet against this profile as a long term bell cow. By the same token, I’m definitely making buy-low offers on Swift. I’ve always been more interested in seasonal than dynasty since I have systemic talent concerns with him, but if you can get him for a late-2nd or insignificant depth player with less upside, I’m definitely testing the waters.

For the Patriots, it was a rough start for Rhamondre Stevenson fans watching the box score as Ezekiel Elliott jumped out to an early lead in targets and ran more efficiently. But Stevenson emerged as the primary back over the second half, especially as the team was driving late in a competitive game. He wound up playing 58 of 80 snaps, and ran 35 of 58 routes. The former Sooner was inefficient on the ground, but I’m willing to write this one off for now given the Patriots poor O-line performance, Stevenson’s stomach bug, and the old “it was one week” thing. He was efficient as a receiver and has a sustained history of efficient rushing.

The Patriots held true to my prediction of high-RB usage with 34 total RB touches in 80 plays even as they turned to the air in comeback mode. If they play in more neutral script, expect a higher rate of RB touches per play, while the play volume will of course come down.

TAKEAWAYS: Gainwell had RB2-level usage but did little with it. Expect Swift to get more opportunities and fare better as the season goes on. Sell Gainwwell and buy swift if each wind up similarly valued in the mid-2nd range for dynasty. Stevenson remains a low-end RB1, while Elliott is a desperation flex play with contingent value.

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I’ll be back later in the week with Part 2 of my in-season backfield breakdowns!