Initial Reactions to a Free Agency Frenzy

A busy day of musical chairs across the RB market, and finally some hope in Atlanta

Hey folks, for the OGs who were with me last year, Free Agency was a pretty busy time of posts. I had just launched the site and was not quite sure yet how my summer content roll out would be. The result was a pretty expansive deep dive into every running back signing. Some of that wound up perhaps a touch redundant when I got around to the backfield breakdowns come summer. In addition to my going from student to full-time employment, and this year’s free agency being *WAY* more hectic thus far at the running back position I endeavour to attempt a little more brevity this year.

In this post I will touch on the first five pieces of major news from Day 1, and I’ll be back later or at the end of the week to add more, and eventually to wrap up the remaining dominos. I’ll try to give a brief picture of how I think these situations will shake out and where I’d value them in a dynasty or best ball format - with the fun of ignorance as to where the market will ultimately land.

Let’s get rolling!

1. Kirk Cousins Secures the Bag in Atlanta

The skinny: Kirk Cousins is the $180M man, but this signing is ultimately more about the weapons he’s gaining or leaving behind than the veteran pivot himself. Whether he wound up back in Minnesota or in Atlanta Cousins was sure to receive multiple guaranteed seasons and a bevy of enticing weapons. His decision to head south is a massive boon for Drake London and Kyle Pitts, while a big loss for Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison.

Through two seasons, London has posted comparable peripherals to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, but has been the forgotten man trapped in the low-volume, quarterback-deprived Arthur Smith Falcons:

While it’s mildly concerning to see his numbers decline from 2022 to 2023, his numbers in and of themselves are quite strong, and it’s entirely possible he tracks closer to his 2022 data in a more functional offense.

Pitts has been less consistent, with a phenomenal rookie year followed up by a snake-bitten year 2 in which his peripherals went up but his efficiency cratered, and a deeply disappointing year 3 in which his numbers fell across the board while dealing with a knee injury. I think it’s reasonable to have more confidence in London as a benefactor of Cousins’ addition than Pitts: for whom questions about role as a non-conventional TE, and health, are reasonable to ask. But this is still a TE who has shown a more versatile usage profile down the field than any TE in the league every year of his career, and who boasts an incomparable ceiling if he gets back to full performance alongside Cousins.

Between the upgrade at QB, the change to a system imported from LA which has traditionally played at a high-pace, with a pass-first lean, and limited substitution of personnel, there is every reason to be extremely excited about the Falcons weapons this year.

The details: Cousins’ 4-year, $180M contract features $100M in guarantees, just $10M of which is beyond the first two seasons of the deal. It’s possible that latter numbers increases if they restructure to create more cap space post-year 1. Otherwise, it’s effectively a “two and a half year deal” with an easily voidable fourth season. We should consider Cousins virtually locked in to this job for two years with a reasonable chance of playing a third with a good performance this year.

How it will shake out: Expect a big boost in routes, targets and efficiency for both London and Pitts. Cousins is a dream fantasy quarterback capable of piloting a pass-first offense and wasting few drop backs on scrambles or sacks. If London splits the difference between his 2022 and 2023 peripherals and scales that to top-10 passing volume, we could see a low-end WR1 finish from him this year. Pitts will need to increase his route participation - something that would not surprise me under Zac Robinson’s McVay-influenced scheme. If he can reach 80-percent routes he can compete to be a top-three TE this year. A conservative rank would put him in the mid-TE1 range.

It shouldn’t be as drastic an impact for Bijan Robinson but it’s positive for the whole offense. Consider him an elite round 1 option.

Meanwhile, it’s a big loss for the Vikings, in particular Addison who won’t benefit from the QB-proof magic of being Justin Jefferson, nor will he gobble up as many “inferior goods” type targets as T.J. Hockenson, which exist in any offense. I’d view Jefferson as a mid-range WR1, Addison as a WR3/4, and Hockenson as a mid-low TE1 depending on health, pending the Vikings next move.

Dynasty Valuation:

K. Cousins = “Late 1”

D. London = 1.25 base 1s

K. Pitts = 1.25 base 1s

B. Robinson = 2+ base 1s

J. Jefferson = 3+ base 1s

T.J. Hockenson = 1 base 1

J. Addison = “Late 1”