Jim Irsay is the Grinch who Stole Fantasy Christmas

Coping with the fallout from an anti-climactic Jonathan Taylor Day

To be honest, I’ve always had a slightly conflicted relationship with Jonathan Taylor. As a Colts fan, analytics convert, and fantasy analyst who specializes in RB analysis, I see Taylor in several different lights.

When the Colts drafted him in 2020, I was both extraordinarily confident he would become a star player for, excited to have the chance to watch him every week, and unhappy the team I rooted for traded up to select a “non-premium” position in Round 2. In fact, at the time I said you wind up losing no matter what when you select a RB that highly: either you miss on the pick, or hit a home run and wind up giving that player a regrettable contract.

I did not envision the scenario that played out yesterday.

Early this summer when reports surfaced that the Colts were not willing to extend Jonathan Taylor I regrettably felt it was the right decision. Every RB should do everything in their power to achieve their financial security, but under the salary cap I wasn’t enthused about the team I root for handing out the next market-setting RB contract. Ever since that time, I’ve become increasingly befuddled by the Colts actions.

First there were the nonsense comments in the media discussing Taylor’s relative worth if he was no longer in the league, coupled with his accusations of bad faith. Even the staunchest ‘RBs Don’t Matter’ purveyor would admit this was a dehumanizing approach, and unhelpful toward any team goal. Next, was the circulation of threats to place Taylor on the “Non-Football Injury” list with a back issue, before he was ultimately placed on the “PUP” list — presumably due to the ankle injury which ended his 2022 season.

As a potential holdout neared, I suspected all parties were in a difficult position, exacerbated by possible injury concerns and Irsay’s relationship sabotage. But in the past weeks everything appeared to change. Taylor was granted permission to seek trade offers, and it was reported that Miami agreed to acceptable compensation with him before making an offer to Indianapolis that was ultimately rejected.

There is a lot that remains unknown about this situation. But we know the Miami offer was reported as “reasonable” and was clearly less than the requested 1st round pick. There is a lot of room between those two marks, but when you consider that Taylor would plausibly bring back a third round compensatory pick if he left in free agency, you’d speculate the offer was in the realm of a second rounder.

More striking than any speculated offer was the fact Miami was irrefutably willing to do *A* deal. Not only does this indicate Taylor’s consent to an extension, but also implies that the Dolphins were comfortable with his health.

Taking all this together, we have a player whom a top AFC contender deemed worth paying for in both dollars and picks, and in sufficient health to warrant it. Naturally, the Colts have deemed him unworthy of an extension, too valuable to move to a willing buyer, and physically unable to perform.

It’s hard to make sense of. So what is the Colts end game here?

Is it to eventually trade Taylor for a better offer at the trade deadline? It’s not impossible but the chance a team offers substantially more for 9-13 games of Taylor than they would have for 17 games of his services seems remote.

Are they looking to extend him at a better number than he was willing to take this off-season? The chance they do substantially better here than Miami was willing to accept within days seems slim, made all the more-so by Irsay taking every chance possible to poison the relationship.

Are they looking to simply ‘win the war’ by retaining control over Taylor at the lowest possible number over the next 1-3 seasons unless offered trade compensation they can’t refuse? This seems to be the approach best in line with their actions. But it’s a goal without a benefit.

At a certain point, the goal of employing Jonathan Taylor is for him to help you win football games. The best way he can do that is by carrying the ball 20 times per week. The second best way he can do that is by fetching assets from another team in trade. The worst way to achieve this goal is by alienating him to the point that each successive season is defined by battling over contract conditions and game theory incentives.

Let’s say the Colts “win” this standoff. What is winning exactly? Is it Taylor begrudgingly playing six games for the team after coming off the PUP list in time to accrue a season on his contract? Is it Taylor sitting out a whole year on PUP so he remains a 4th year player in 2024? Because in neither of those scenarios are you capturing anywhere close to the value Taylor can provide the 2023 Colts, nor are you putting yourself in any better of a position moving into next season.

Call me old-fashioned, but voluntarily entering a prisoner’s dilemma with your own player in perpetuity in hopes of saving a few dollars or perhaps netting a slightly higher draft pick will leave your face spited and noseless.

I’m going to address some of the specific contract implications for you shortly, but above all else this situation is simple: if you value your player, pay him. If you don’t, trade him. By all Colts accounts, their goal coming into the off-season was to assess Taylor’s play this year, prior to deciding on any extension. Naturally, Taylor played all the leverage available to disrupt this plan which would have otherwise placed the entirety of the downside risk onto his shoulders. Faced with resistance, Irsay could have either made a leap of faith, or leapt off the tracks entirely. But instead, he seemingly became so obsessed with winning the dispute on his terms, he failed to hit the breaks before driving this train directly off the rails.

As a fan of Taylor, the Colts, and football generally, I’m frustrated, embarrassed and saddened.

What’s Next?

I truthfully never considered the possibility of Indianapolis retaining Taylor and not activating him as a likely option. Given the typical RTP timeline on his procedure, there is no explanation why he still would be unable to play now, and especially for another six weeks of real time to keep him out through Week 4. Add in the fact Miami was comfortable making a trade for him and the case for his PUP placement to be entirely health-related becomes extraordinarily shaky.

As I dove further into the specifics of the rules, I can see why this makes “sense” once you accept the apparent motivations of all involved — even if you strongly disagree with them.

The first key point is money earned today. If Taylor was cleared to play and chose not to, he would be fined every day he held out while under contract. If his desire is to either leverage the Colts into a trade or extension, or failing that, play as few games as possible without losing money upfront, remaining on the PUP is his best short term option.

The second point is the rules regarding contract accrual. Any player who is listed on the PUP list accrues a year of service for the purposes of their contract unless that player (a) Cannot begin football activities prior to Week 6, (b) does not play at any point in the season, AND (c) is in the last year of their contract. Taylor is potentially eligible for all three of these metrics. In conjunction with this rule, a player must generally play six games to accrue a year of service unless they suffer a football-related injury.

My best reading of the rules together is that in order to accrue a year of service, Taylor must either resume football activities prior to Week 6, play a minimum of six games, or, if activated, begin playing with six or more games remaining in the season and continuing playing until or unless he suffers an injury.

It is of course in Taylor’s interest to ensure the contract does not “toll” (suspend for the year). Thus I suspect he would angle to be activated prior to Week 13 at the latest, and Week 6 at the earliest, if healthy enough to play. The Colts — if they have no desire to win games in 2023 other than those against their own player — would be incentivized to keep Taylor on PUP the entire year so the contract does toll. If they choose to play hardball, it’s possible the situation could come down to a physical adjudicated by the team doctor.

Taylor may indeed be dealing with the affects of an ankle injury. But if you think he’s too hurt to play given all the context we’ve discussed, most notably Miami’s trade and contract offers, I’m sorry but you’re an absolute dupe.

The earliest we can see Taylor this season is currently Week 5. But I would look at Week 6 or 7 as more plausible. The next opportunity for team and player to have mutually aligned incentives that involve his activation is just prior to the October 31st trade deadline. If Taylor begins football activities prior to Week 6 his contract cannot toll, subject to any further holdout complications deemed related to injury. This also may align with the team’s window to showcase him to possible trade suitors in a limited sample before the deadline.

If he’s not traded by that point, don’t be surprised to see him shut down shortly after with an injury-related concern of questionable validity. If not by the trade deadline, I do suspect we see Taylor in Week 13 assuming he can physical in order to advance the contract.

I’ve been bullish on Taylor’s fantasy appeal in Round 3 given the possibility of a trade, and my read that the Colts would only refuse a trade if they felt confident about enjoying Taylor’s services this year. This read was clearly off, and the risk of further missed games beyond the first four is substantial. On the flip side, if he falls through the back end of the RB dead zone, the upside of 12 Taylor games, with some remaining chance those take place on a different team, I will have no choice but to keep taking shots.

I will be updating my seasonal rankings again on Friday and expect to have Taylor ranked in approximate Round 7-8 in tournament formats. In dynasty, I do see yesterday’s actions making it less likely he remains a Colt in the long term, which is a positive given the challenges associated with RB fantasy production in an Anthony Richardson offense.

Who’s Left?

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NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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At present, the Colts have three RBs on their 53-man roster: Zack Moss — who is questionable to start the season recovering from a broken arm, 5th round rookie Evan Hull, and third year complimentary back Deon Jackson.

I take no pleasure in reporting that Zack Moss was actually… totally fine last year?

I’m not making a three-level chart for Moss because I have some element of pride remaining. But for this first time in his career, the Zack Moss corollary didn’t apply to Zack Moss! As per always, Moss was one of the best in the league in MTF/A (0.26). But he actually parlayed that skill into an impressive 3.06 YAC/A, and an above average 39.4 ROE%. His complete lack of breakaway still limited him to -0.02 RYOE/A.

For comparison, in 2021 he posted a high-end 0.23 in MTF/A, but had a putrid 2.28 YAC/A, 1.0% explosive run rate, second-worst ranking -0.78 RYOE/A and well below average 35.4% ROE%.

It’s nice to know Moss has upside beyond being one of the worst rushers in the league, but his 2022 campaign is an outlier in his career on a fairly small sample and we should expect something between that and his earlier results moving forward.

The other two backs are also unlikely to add much in the running game to be fair. Evan Hull is the most appealing fantasy option due to his all-situation skillset. He accounted for over 60% of his team’s rushing work, while posting a bonkers 21.6% of Northwestern’s receiving yards in his final season on 92nd percentile route diversity.

I expected Hull to be closer to the Deuce Vaugn tier of college workhorse / NFL satellite back, but he destroyed the combine posting above 80th percentile marks in burst score, speed score (4.47 40), and agility score while weighing 5-10, 209. Given his draft capital and uninspiring film grades from Big NFL Media, I’m skeptical that Hull is a true value adder to a backfield. But he does all the things we want fantasy RBs to do and has the size and athleticism to translate those traits at the NFL level.

The Colts are embracing a full-on youth movement with rookies and second-year players of all draft investments starting across the roster. I expect Hull to mix in to the room from the start and have a chance to run away with the job if he earns it. For fantasy, he’s likely our best case scenario at a start-worthy asset here.

The other wheel to this Tricycle is Deon Jackson. We don’t have much of a sample on Jackson in the NFL, but he mixed in as a complimentary third back in his second year before playing as Taylor’s direct backup after Nyheim Hines was traded under Frank Reich, and then falling behind Zack Moss under Jeff Saturday.

Jackson doesn’t have the same level of college volume in either facet of the game as Hull, but in four games playing above 40% of snaps in the NFL, he amassed 25 targets. Combining this skillset with a 5-11, 218 frame and 4.47 speed to match Hull, you’re getting a similar bet albeit with a third-year player. I’m not sure his losing the gig to Zack Moss means much carrying over from the dark days of the Saturday era, and he presents a similar fantasy upside bet to Evan Hull.

In the pre-season, Moss was hurt and Jackson split reps with the first-team with Hull. Hull started the first game, but Jackson started the following two after being more impressive in Game 1. However, Hull was the more impressive back both as a rusher, and with a viral pass protection rep in the final game.

If Moss remains out Week 1 and no RB is added (which is an unlikely parlay), I’d expect a fairly even split between Hull and Jackson with a true “hot hand” opportunity on tap. Both profile as a passing down options so LDD snaps could go either way but I tend to default to the veteran seeing more of them at least to start.

If Moss is active, I’d expect him to have some form of role on early-downs to start the season and possibly a goal-line role, but I wouldn’t guarantee it. My best guess is they play all three backs to some extent and eventually align into a more structured two-back committee based on performance.

There is also of course the possibility they bring in another veteran, and have worked out Kareem Hunt. I see this as less likely than most given the Colts are starting so much youth across their roster. But it’s entirely possible. Either way, I think that back just joins the list of candidates vying for more touches on merit rather than walking into a secure role.

Early in the season, there are too many unknowns to start any back, and it’s difficult to even make bets here outside of dynasty with so many possible options. I would prioritize Hull > Jackson > Moss for now, and Hunt would jump to a close second on the list for me behind Hull if he signs. I think Hull is your best shot at a talent-based emergence on all three downs over the course of the season but the bet remains remote. In dynasty, I would sell him for any 2nd-round pick if that’s possible from an excitable manager, but more likely you’re stashing him on the bench for now and hoping he emerges at some point.

There is less hope for value accrual from Jackson and Moss, but they’re both certainly worth rostering. Once again, I would prioritize Jackson between the two.

My last note is that the Miami RBs have now avoided all bullets with Neo-esque elusiveness until at least Week 5. Given Jeff Wilson’s injury in pre-season and Mostert reported as the “lead” back for now, he may be the best early-season start, but I still prefer WIlson over the full season given the size advantage and usage last season under the same staff. Don’t expect De’Von Achane to be a major part of your early-season plans after suffering a shoulder injury in pre-season and running with the reserves, but I still see him as the most talented ceiling play in this backfield and he should be the first one drafted in seasonal formats as well as an intriguing dynasty investment — especially if he starts low on the depth chart and drops from his rookie draft value. I would not want to leave a seasonal draft without at least one Dolphin RB.

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Metrics Legend:

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

BAE Rating = Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating, A box-count weighted efficiency metric comparing a RB vs. his teammates created by Noah Hills

RSR = Relative Success Rate, a metric created by Noah Hills to measure a running back’s rate of successful carries vs. that of their team-mates

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Juke Rate: PlayerProfiler’s tackle avoidance metric, combining both broken tackles and evaded tackles

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run

TPRR: Targets per Route Run

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and goal-line carries)