Let's do a Mock Draft
The first ever Thinking About Thinking Official Mock Draft
I wanted to do one of these so I decided to. Would be cool if we were more accurate than the Mock Draft Industrial Complex, if also unlikely.
Quick Rules:
This is of course a *What WILL Happen* mock, not a what would I do mock. The goal is 32/32 here.
Trades are allowed, nay, encouraged
Let’s Dive in.
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB - USC
Willing to say you can lock in a 1/1 start for us off the top. Caleb Williams steps into one of the best possible situations for any rookie QB, and takes aim at establishing himself as the best QB in franchise history.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB - LSU
I was slow to come to grips with this reality, personally preferring Drake Maye and believing he is the more typical archetype for a Number 2 overall selection. While the pick has yet to be officially sourced, the momentum has continued toward Daniels from enough ends that at this point it’s unequivocally the most likely outcome.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB - UNC
This is where things get immediately interesting with intrigue that the Patriots could look at JJ McCarthy, or consider a trade back offer. I do think Minnesota and the New York Giants would offer a competitive package for the chance to draft Drake Maye, but I don’t think either team can offer a substantial enough haul that the Patriots risk being shut out of QB altogether in case the rejected party trades up ahead of the Patriots pick to snipe McCarthy for themselves.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR - OSU
All signs point to the Cardinals sticking and picking and I think that’s the right choice. Having captured a haul of excess picks last year, now is the time to add a blue chip prospect at their position of greatest need.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT - ND
I think this is where the draft gets especially interesting. If New England does go Maye, Minnesota needs to make a decision on how much they like J.J. McCarthy, and whether they believe the Giants would take him at 6. Joe Alt seems to be in a tier above the rest of the tackles and while I believe the Chargers would have interest in moving down to add picks I’m just not sure who their trade partner is if not Minnesota.
Is a team going to move up for a WR with both Nabers and Odunze still available? I don’t think the Chargers would be comfortable moving as far back as Indianapolis, Jacksonville, or Buffalo. The Bears make the most sense but have so few picks in 2024 it’s hard to see the deal coming together.
Will Tennessee move up to secure Joe Alt? It’s hard to justify given the chance he just makes to their pick anyhow, with plenty of backup tackle options available, especially given they’ve moved out Day 2 picks for Will Levis and L’Jarius Snead.
End of the day I think it’s Minnesota or bust and I think they won’t pay enough to make it worth the Chargers’ while to move off of Alt, as Harbaugh looks to rebuild their offensive line.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR - NYG
I’m personally of the view that the Giants are legitimately uninterested in taking McCarthy at six, though far from certain of it. I think this pick comes down to Nabers vs. Odunze and I wouldn’t be surprised by either. Nabers just fits the profile of WR Daboll has gravitated toward in the past and strikes me as a seamless fit in his motion-heavy offense as an all-purpose weapon he can build their passing game around.
7. [TRADE] Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB - MICH
If I’m the Tennessee Titans, I look at this spot and see one QB and one WR left before a massive drop off, while there are a handful of similarly valued tackles. Given tackle is their position of greatest need, trading back a handful of spots has little opportunity cost for them. Meanwhile, with the price to trade up now lower than at five, Minnesota takes their chance to strike and ensure Denver or Las Vegas can’t jump ahead given two more potential trade down teams sit at the next two picks.
TRADE DETAILS:
MIN trades picks 11 + 23 + 108 + 2025 3rd
TEN trades picks 7 + 38 + 182
8. [TRADE] Jacksonville Jaguars: Rome Odunze, WR - WASH
The Falcons are looking primarily at the defensive side of the ball in this draft, having spent three consecutive firsts on skill players, and signing Kirk Cousins in free agency. With all three of the top edge prospects and corner prospects still available, the Falcons poetically secure the 2024 2nd they thought they’d receive for Calvin Ridley to slide down, while the Jaguars finally stop taking half-measures to build a receiving corps around Trevor Lawrence. Rome Odunze can operate as a legitimate X-WR, move the rest of their role players down a rung, and all of a sudden we have a serious passing game in Duval County.
TRADE DETAILS:
JAX trades picks 17 + 48
ATL trades pick 8
9. Chicago Bears: Byron Murphy, DT - TEX
The Bears just miss out on the trade down train, and are forced to make a pick here. Having invested in Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen with past draft trade wizardry, it’s time to add to the other side of the ball. Ryan Poles and crew breaks the seal on Defense in the 2024 draft with Byron Murphy, who projects to provide an inside compliment to Montez Sweat’s edge presence.
10. New York Jets: J.C. Latham, OT - ALA
The Jets have been continually linked to Brock Bowers throughout the process and while that makes sense, I am choosing to believe in rational drafting. The Jets offensive line “solution” of Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith is held together with crazy glue and yarn, and the Jets need to get serious about their O-Line unit both for the present and future. Latham gives them a potential year 1 starter at Tackle or Guard if potential injuries arise, and a building block for years to come.
11. [TRADE] Tennessee Titans: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT - PSU
Of all the teams who are looking for O-Line help in this range of the draft, the Titans strike me as the one most in need of a pure left tackle. To me, that’s Fashanu, as the Titans complete their retooled offense around Will Levis.
12. [TRADE] Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE - ALA
O.K. here’s where it’s possible we’re getting into fan fiction range. However, no team is more incentivized to trade back in this draft than the Denver Broncos, even if it’s for below market value. Sitting at 12 overall with a depleted roster, a gaping hole at Quarterback, and no Round 2 selection, their options to fill QB are either (a) trade up with fewer assets than their bidding competitors and a roster further away; (b) stick at 12 and pick a Round 2 quality QB prospect; (c) make a non-QB pick at 12, and rock with Jarrett Stidham and a Round 3 or later selection, or (d) trade back, accumulate assets, and position yourself to select a Tier 2 QB at a more palatable cost while replenishing their coffers in the process.
To me, it's a no-brainer, and only a matter of who moves up. One possibility is the Saints, though with how this board has fallen they probably like their odds of getting a tackle right before the next tier break. I went with the Falcons who already have an extra 3rd from the Ridley deal, and can move up to select the player they likely would have taken at 8, while spending only a portion of the capital they accrued in that trade back.
I have no great lean on which edge rusher they prefer, but if they do prefer one, they have reason to worry that the Raiders, Colts and Seahawks could all take them. I have them going with Turner here, largely on Terry Fontenot’s run of three straight 21-year old or younger prospects in Round 1.
TRADE DETAILS
ATL trades: picks 17 + 74
DEN trades: pick 12
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Terrion Arnold, CB - ALA
The Raiders continue the defensive trend here with Terrion Arnold. it’s a relative coin flip for me between Arnold and Mitchell here, but as Ben Solak noted this week, Tom Telesco has tended to prioritize Power 5 prospects, so I have a slight lean toward the Alabama product.
14. New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT - ORE ST.
The Saints are perhaps the easiest team to mock, at least positionally. Which tackle they take we don’t know, but they are taking one. Both Fuaga and Fautanu have the versatility to play tackle or guard, which may come in handy given the team has to prepare for life both with and without Ryan Ramczyk, and draft both a contingency plan or compliment to Trevor Penning. I went with Fuaga here but it could just as easily be Fautanu.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Brock Bowers, TE - UGA
The Colts could not possibly be happier with how this board has fallen with both the players I believe they are targeting available to them: TE Brock Bowers and CB Quinyon Mitchell.
If you ask my fan perspective on this pick, my preference is for corner in Round 1 - my top available is DeJean, though Mitchell is whom I believe Chris Ballard would target - due to the relative depth at pass catcher come pick 46. But after listening to approximately every single piece of Chris Ballard media this off-season, I think he is both more optimistic on the Colts incumbent young starters in their defensive backfield - Jaylon Jones and Juju Brents - than general consensus, and dead set on adding a difference-making weapon for Anthony Richardson.
The rub with this pick is that Chris Ballard taking a player without athletic testing is very against type. But I think Bowers projects as such a unique player, and system fit that Ballard breaks the mold. One thing to note with Chris Ballard is that he has traded a 1st round pick for DeForest Buckner, drafted a safety in Round 1, and spent early 2nds on off-ball linebacker and running back. He’s not going to have a hard and fast rule on positional value, and if Bowers is his guy, that’s who he’ll take.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT - WASH
Seattle’s offense was completely torched by sub-replacement level offensive line play last year. While the passing game was efficient on early downs in all circumstances, and in non-pressure situations, their pressure rate on 3rd down drop backs ranked among the league’s worst, and it compromised their ability to sustain drives.
The hope is better health this year, but they also need more talent. Fautanu can step in to play any of four positions on the offensive line, and the Hawks can likely find a way for him to immediately start either at Right Tackle or Guard.
17. [TRADE] Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR - LSU
The Buffalo Bills need a WR. And in my opinion, they specifically need an X-WR to compliment short-area, after the catch weapons in Curtis Samuel, Khlalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook. That archetype thins out after Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell, and I don’t think the Bills can afford to miss out.
The Broncos remain without a second round pick even after their first trade back of the night, so it’s time to fix that problem and continue their slide down the board.
TRADE DETAILS:
BUF trades: Picks 28 + 60 + 128
DEN trades: Pick 17
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Jared Verse, EDGE - FSU
The Bengals are already in dire need of pass rush reinforcements, but may feel additional pressure after Trey Hendrickson demanded a trade this week. Between Verse and Latu, I lean with Verse given the medical concerns on Latu and the Bengals typically conservative disposition.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Laiatu Latu, EDGE - UCLA
I know Peter Schrager is pounding the table for an offensive player to the Rams here, but I just don’t know who that would be given the draft to this point. The Rams are stuck in no man’s land between tiers at offensive line, and it feels a touch early for any WR as well. I think they look to the offense later, and take a falling value in Latu who can help make up for the lost pass rush from Aaron Donald.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Quinyon Mitchell, CB - TOLEDO
The Steelers catch a faller at a position of need, and run to the podium to take Quinyon Mitchell, many folks’ CB1 in the draft.
21. Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton, OT - DUKE
The Dolphins need a long term solution for life after Terron Armstead, and need help on the interior after losing Robert Hunt and - presumably - Connor Williams. The versatile Graham Barton may have a future at tackle, and could compete to start at Centre with Aaron Brewer, or possibly at Guard in year 1.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, CB - IOWA
My personal favourite player in the draft goes to a team whose decision-making I generally support. The Eagles bring over zone-heavy Vic Fangio who should be able to build around Cooper DeJean’s play-making ability, while mitigating some of his possible issues in man-coverage. DeJean can overtake James Bradberry to start alongside Darius Slay at corner, or can bump to safety if necessary, at least in his rookie year.
For a team that has a need at corner, and desperately needs tackling ability in the back 7, DeJean will provide value in coverage and run support from Day 1, as well as potentially adding extra value as a returner under the new kickoff rules.
23. [TRADE] Tennessee Titans: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT - ILL
The Titans have an extra first-round pick courtesy of their move-back at the top of the draft, and have a perfect need and value match with Newton. Having lost Denico Autry in free agency, and parted ways with Teair Tart, the defensive interior which was once the strength of this team has become thin outside of Jeffery Simmons. Newton fixes that.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Adonai Mitchell, WR - TEX
The Cowboys are heavily rumoured to be targeting one Texas Longhorns skill player in Round 2, but I’ll get the party started in Round 1. Ceedee Lamb is the undisputed alpha, but you get the most of him when you’re able to move him inside and outside at will. The Cowboys have finally white-flagged the Michael Gallup extension, and now have a gaping hole on their Wide Receiver Depth Chart, with Lamb surrounded only by the aging Brandin Cooks and the unproven Jalen Tolbert.
Mitchell can step in right away to Gallup’s role as the X-WR, freeing up Lamb and Cooks to interchange around the formation and provide a legitimate secondary weapon for Dak Prescott.
25. Green Bay Packers: Amarius Mims, OT - UGA
The Packers have a lot of flexibility at this spot, but with the David Bakhtiari era now officially over, offensive line is my favourite direction for the Pack. Noted for their developmental abilities on staff, it only makes sense to pair Green Bay with the highest ceiling bet available in the monstrous Amarius Mims.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB - ALA
Tampa Bay traded away Carlton Davis, and needs to keep an eye out for a potential replacement on the outside next to Jamel Dean. I’m torn between Nate Wiggins and McKinstry, but my tiebreaker here is McKinstry’s superior tackling ability in a Todd Bowles scheme which requires all 11 players on the field to be ready to blitz or come up to make a tackle on any given play.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Jordan Morgan, OT - ARIZ
The Cardinals signed Jonah Williams this off-season but I don’t see that as more than a short-term stop gap. Arizona still needs to build up their offensive line for the long term around Paris Johnson Jr. I’ll go with the hometown product in Jordan Morgan.
Johnson played Right Tackle last year, and I could see Morgan as their future Left Tackle if they wish to continue with Johnson on the right. Or they could consider moving Morgan inside, with Williams and Johnson as their tackles, and potentially move the latter to the left over time.
28. [TRADE] Washington Commanders: Tyler Guyton, OT - OU
Tyler Guyton is the last tackle prospect before a drop off on several big boards, and the Commanders should be incentivized to grab him to support the sack-prone Jayden Daniels in his rookie season. Shockingly… the Denver Broncos are once again willing to slide down!
Finally, Sean Payton and crew secure the early-2nd round pick they need to select Bo Nix at his proper value, and have no amassed an absolutely haul of depth picks. In this fantasy world (which honestly should be a reality), the Broncos entered the draft with Pick 12 and leave with Picks 36, 40, 78, and 128. In total, Denver now has nine picks in the Top 150 (36, 40, 76, 78, 121, 128, 136, 145, 147). I have them taking Nix at 36, while the move up here lets them target an early-round 2 WR to give their new QB a weapon: perhaps even his former teammate… Troy Franklin.
TRADE DETAILS
WSH trades: Picks 36 + 40 + 78
DEN trades: 28 + 60 + 74
29. Detroit Lions: Mike Sainristil, CB - MICH
The highest consensus corner available here is Nate Wiggins. And I do think Detroit could benefit from adding another starter in the secondary, but I just can’t see the 6-1, 173-pound Wiggins as a sufficient knee-cap biter. So instead I’ll give them Mike Sainristil, the National Champion who rates at an 11/10 on dog levels. It’s possible he has to be moved inside, which likely means Brian Branch at Safety. However, too many versatile, play-making defenders is not a bad problem to have.
Bonus points for picking a National Champion from Michigan in front of the home crowd in Detroit. Something tells me the fans would enjoy this one.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Chop Robinson, EDGE - PSU
The Ravens missed out on the latter half of the offensive tackle run, and are not the type of front office to force a need pick over value. They pivot to defense, to add a playmaker to a unit which lost several starters including Jadaveon Cloweney and the bulk of its coaching staff.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Ladd McConkey, WR - UGA
This is one of my favourite player-team fits in the draft and I’ve been mocking it every time through. Kyle Shanahan, the former WR, has a soft spot for technicians, and McConkey’s best routes fit perfectly with his scheme. I’m not projecting a Brandon Aiyuk trade on draft night, but I can’t see both Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel sticking together beyond 2024 given the contracts owed to players up and down this roster. McConkey can start out in the slot in year 1, before taking over an every down role in 2025, when the 49ers move on from one of their star wideouts.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Nate Wiggins, CB - CLEM
I’ve already teased Nate Wiggins twice, but he comes off the board with the last pick of the first. The Chiefs have had a lot of success developing this position and I see them as being well-suited to figure out how best to deploy the unique size-profile of Wiggins and his 4.28 speed.
There it is: a 32/32 mock draft. Be sure to let me know your favourite and least favourite picks in the comments.