My Plan of Attack for the 2024 Rookie Class (Starting at the Top)

Beginning a walk through the key decision points in the class, sorting through the profiles, and finding areas of the draft to trade into before the names are called

There is something incomplete about a set of rookie rankings. We have 200-300 relevant players in the dynasty landscape, just 36-48 of which will be eligible to be drafted whenever your league welcomes in the newest crop.

Especially if you are only in a few leagues, you will find yourself with limited options to express how you feel about a given rookie class by simply making the best available pick at each opportunity. Outside of perhaps a few outlier teams coming off an intentional tank year, you most likely have just 1-2 picks in each round. Allowing your portfolio to be determined by where those fall and who your league mates leave for you seems a waste of all the fun research you’re about to embark on.

I prefer to think of Rookie Draft Season as a blank canvas, in which you have the opportunity to gather all the capital at your disposal across your rosters, and do the best to mold it toward the type of portfolio you think best represents how you feel about this year’s incoming class - both relative to each other and to the market as a whole.

Therefore, I think rankings only tell a fraction of the story. The way I tend to think about a class is in a couple stages:

First, I try to identify the profiles - in a vacuum - that I feel especially passionate about, from both a likelihood of hitting perspective, and a ceiling perspective. These are the players I simply will not leave my season of drafting without at least an average share of.

Next, I start to look at the relative prices in the market - both how the rookies rank among each other, and how they align with the broader market - to find out which of my priority players appear to be the most attainable at prices I’m content to pay.

The final step is assessing how best to position myself to be able to draft as much of my favourite players at the best prices possible. Should I be trading down in rookie drafts? Trading up? Trading away certain veterans I have solid exposure to in my portfolio?

What’s the path I’m most and least content to take?

Once those priorities are set and I’m able to position myself as often as possible to select my target players, the remainder of drafts becomes about passively accruing exposure to the players remaining; generally players I’m less sold on, but who I happen to wind up higher on than the market.

The end result of this is that most players get sorted into one of four categories:

A. High-Priority players with inefficiently low prices: establish far above market exposure, trade into opportunities to draft

B. High-Priority players with efficient, or inefficiently high prices: draft at ADP when available, avoid zero exposure

C. Low-Priority players with efficient or inefficiently low prices: draft at or after ADP when available, passive accrue market or above market exposure

D. Low-Priority players with inefficiently high prices: rarely draft, perhaps limited passive exposure when available after ADP

To use the top of last year’s first round as an example to illustrate this process, and the output:

• Bijan Robinson was a high-priority player whose price I felt was efficient, or perhaps even low relative to the market at large: I often traded up for 1.01

• Jahmyr Gibbs was a high-priority player whose price I also felt was inefficiently low, I often traded down to him, up to him, or “across” to him (with veterans)

• Anthony Richardson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were high-priority players with high prices: I made sure to have at-market exposure but didn’t trade up for them or down to them

• Bryce Young was a low-priority player with a price that was too high: I never selected him post-NFL draft.

• C.J. Stroud was (wrongly!) a low-priority player with a price that was (luckily) quite attainable: I took him whenever available at the 1.06.

There is a wide range of hits and misses from last year you’d be familiar with if you read my rookie stuff last year: (Big hits on Gibbs, Achane, Laporta, and avoiding Young and Johnston // Big misses on fading Jayden Reed, Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, and over valuing a lot of the later RBs)

But more than an advertisement of hits and misses, I hope that helps you understand the frame of mind I had coming into the draft and how I was game planning for it.

Turning ourselves back to 2024, while the majority of rookie draft maneuvering takes place during the draft, the next few weeks may be your last opportunity to set yourself up with the best hand you can before entering the draft room. What prospects are you looking to prioritize? Which one’s are you not? Which areas of the draft do you want to be over or under weight picks in? Let’s start to figure that out together, today.

I’m breaking the draft up into a few pods to help us talk through the class at a strategic level. These are not necessarily ADP tiers or my ranking tiers.

Let’s kick off with the “first pod” - this includes the top eight rookies in current startup ADP, the eight players worth at least “One Base 1st” in my current dynasty rankings, and all members of the class who are likely to hear their name called in the top half of round 1.

NOTE: Data - unless sourced otherwise - is from PFF College. All plots included are from Campus2Canton.

POD 1 - Overview

Name: Startup ADP (per Dynasty Data Lab) - My OVR Rank - My Base Pick Value

Caleb Williams: 12 - 11 - 2.5+ Base 1s

Marvin Harrison Jr.: 14 - 20 - 2 Base 1s

Malik Nabers: 26 - 21 - 1.5 - 2 Base 1s

Jayden Daniels: 29 - 29 - 1.5 Base 1s

Drake Maye: 32 - 24 - 2 Base 1s

Brock Bowers: 35 - 34 - 1.5 Base 1s

Rome Odunze: 40 - 38 - 1.25 Base 1s

J.J. McCarthy: 63 - 45 - 1 Base 1

Let’s Dive in!

Caleb Williams, QB - USC

What’s to say about Caleb Williams that hasn’t been said? He’s the prince who’s been promised, ever since starting his college career with a 66-yard TD run on a 4th and 1 to kickstart a legendary comeback win over Texas in the 2021 Red River Rivalry.

Since that time, he’s been arguably the most coveted asset in devy leagues, and has been earmarked as the inevitable No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

Let me say off the top that I think Caleb Williams is an excellent prospect. The number one and most important indicator of that - more than any statistic I will lay out - is that there is a 99.9% chance he will be drafted first overall. And there is no metric more predictive than draft capital. Add to that the fact he’s been an efficient and effective QB for the entirety of his college career, has one-of-one physical gifts, and is stepping into a loaded situation with Chicago, and there’s not much reason to be anything but excited.

However, the nature of the QB position is such that it’s hard to predict the success of a prospect, and all but the absolute greatest are highly subjected to the situational factors around them. In terms of how confident we can be about any passer coming out of college, I’m about that confident in Williams, largely due to having had the pleasure of watching him the past three years. But I do want to note that his statistical profile is not without some red flags.

At least with how I play and evaluate dynasty, none of these red flags are enough for me to buck the consensus and consider valuing another player at QB1, but I think they’re something to consider when deciding how to allocate the value of your 1.01 - and whether that’s best spent in Williams, in a trade back, or in a potential trade for another elite QB or position player.

Williams the Passer

Williams’ statistical profile in 2023 was strong, but not otherworldly, as the team really fell off around him in an improved Pac-12.

Williams’ Big Time Throw Rate (BTT%) was 6.2, tied 8th among 47 2024-eligible QBs with at least 200 dropbacks. This ranked behind Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix Jr., while his BTT / Turnover Worthy Play Ratio of 1.72 ranked behind each of the other consensus top-six QBs in the class - as did his PFF passing grade.

However, the consistency of the profile - especially as just a three-year player - stands out. Williams ranked sixth among 2024-eligible QBs in BTT% in 2022, and 2nd in passing grade, ahead of all realistic competitors aside from Drake Maye. And his Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) has been above 10 every single year of his career. Williams’ worst season beats the almost every season of his 2024 compatriots.

If there is cause for pause in this chart, it probably comes by way of viewing the “Rattler Dot.” It’s hard not to immediately wonder how much of Williams’ efficiency is being buoyed by the Lincoln Riley Air Raid system. This caused me to venture down the rabbit hole of comparing Williams to other recent graduates of the Riley / Kingsbury universe who have become relevant NFL QBs. Perhaps unsettlingly, there is no shortage of efficiency from these passers, and in the case of Hurts and Rattler especially, you can see the difference between life with and without the Air Raid.

What I think separates Williams from these players is the “feel” for the position I see on film, and the otherworldly arm talent. The latter is largely indisputable if you spend two-minutes looking at youtube highlights, the former is fairly subjective.

In the tape I’ve watched on Caleb Williams, I see a player who blends a natural grasp of the fundamentals of pocket management, with the intuition of a magician out of structure.

Williams almost always plays with a sound base in the pocket which lets him work downfield as things break down around him more easily than some of the other QBs in this class. He also has the natural athleticism to evade free runners more often than not and create plays on the run if he can’t work downfield by extending it first. In my view, Williams’ hero ball tendency can get him into trouble on occasion, but he has both the fundamentals and the traits to make it a more workable proposition than most.

However, it’s worth noting that the data doesn’t necessarily back up what my eyes are telling me. Williams pressure to sack ratio (P2S) was 8th-highest among the 47 QBs in my 2023 sample at 23.2%, and his career mark was 19%. More concerning, PFF credited Caleb Williams with the most total pressures allowed among 2024-eligible QBs (minimum 25 pressured drop backs). Among those pressures, Williams had 2nd-highest rate of pressures he was deemed responsible for, and the 4th-lowest rate of pressures the offensive line was deemed responsible for.

There is natural subjectivity in this charting, and in my opinion the USC offense - at least in 2023 - did not do him a lot of favours with frequent open-edges, poor line play, and WRs who struggled to create separation outside of the scheme. However, the data is the data and it’s troubling in this regard.

Williams the Rusher

This is probably the more concerning aspect of Williams the fantasy asset if you’re trying to gauge how best to spend what is effectively a Round 1-2 turn startup pick.

Williams’s best season in Rush Yards Market Share capped out at 20-percent, and he’s declined in each successive year since. Similarly, his rush yards per game capped at 40 in Year 1, followed by a decline to just 9.3 in 2023 (this includes sacks).

Among the 2024 class, he’s decisively a less productive rusher than at least Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix.

Watching Williams play, you would not think this is the case. His athletic ability when he does run is impressive, especially orchestrating designed RPOs and the triple option. But it’s a tool he doesn’t often take out of the tool kit - scrambling from just 3.0% of clean pockets, well below the mark of Maye and substantially below Daniels.

The hope is that Williams follows in the path of Justin Fields - or more realistically Josh Allen - as QBs whose athletic ability exceeded their college rushing production, and who became more potent rushing weapons in the league; especially at the goal-line. Williams averaged 0.84 rush TDs per game in college, displaying impressive upside as a short yardage and zone-read runner.

My prediction is that Williams’ NFL rushing is more tactical than habitual. For fantasy, I’m expecting something in the vein of Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott, tactical scramblers capable of operating the zone read; and whose rushing TD upside will outpace his yardage output.

Overall Thoughts

The consistency Williams showed as an efficient and effective passer is impressive, especially considering he showed it from start 1 as a true freshman. That combined with his expected draft capital and physical attributes make him an exceptionally strong bet. But purely statistically speaking, he doesn’t present as an obviously superior passer to some of his competitors in the 2024 draft class, with particular concerns abut sack avoidance. He’s also a capable, but often less than willing rusher.

If each of the top three QBs in this draft hit their ceiling, it’s not obvious to me that Williams will score the most fantasy points of the trio - in fact he’ll probably score the least. I’d also posit that given the nature of the position, and some of the statistical red flags, that his floor is less assured than that of the top two WRs who we’ll discuss shortly. I’m not saying he’s not worth picking at 1.01 if that’s where you’re forced to pick. But I am leaning toward saying that I wouldn’t need much more than an early 2nd to move down the board and target the next four players by consensus ADP.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR - THE Ohio State University