On Ambiguity and Hedging Your Bets

A more measured take on my recent twitter arguments

Hey folks,

First off: sorry for the lack of recent posts.

As you know, April through Early May is a high-volume period for T.A.T. in the lead up to and aftermath of rookie drafts. That tends to slow down in late-May when I take a break from writing to get some best ball drafts in and let the takes wash over me.

As such I have largely limited my fantasy content to podcasts, tweets, and rankings updates.

I have a couple larger pieces in the works that will be up in the next couple weeks, but today I have a short one which is related to a discussion I was in with several folks on twitter yesterday regarding ambiguous backfields, and specifically the Jaguars backfield.

If you missed it, the TLDR is I think Bhayshul Tuten — who is priced essentially equally to Travis Etienne Jr., and 2-3 rounds ahead of Tank Bigsby — is the best click in the backfield. And while I’m very high on the situation overall, I’m actually not that interested in the other members of this backfield.

Full disclosure: I have 34% Bhayshul Tuten, 4% Travis Etienne Jr., and 2% Tank Bigsby

There was a mix of opposed responses, some of which are simply a difference in player take, which I will address in an imminently forthcoming article.

But the most common response was from several folks saying we should simply be taking shots on all members of the backfield because we can’t be sure which one will hit.

I want to address why I don’t (always) agree with that view.