Post-Draft Rookie Ranks

Let's do the Damn Thing!

I know you probably want to get right into the ranks so I will keep the intro short today but I have to share a little gratitude off the top.

I launched this substack just two months ago and there are currently over 700 of you reading this introduction.

When I was a kid, I used to go on long walks and day dream about different ways my life could play out. I would pick a new job each time, and think about what my house (or condo) would look like, how I would dress, where I would live, what type of food I ate most often, or what cocktails I made. It was a fun activity for a child with infinite imagination at a time of seemingly infinite paths for my life.

As everyone knows, when you stop being a kid and pick a career path those daydreams become less realistic. Don’t get me wrong: I am extraordinarily excited to start a career in law, and I love everyone I get to work with. But seeing this project launch and have initial success has brought back that child-like sense of possibility to my life. That is of course thanks to you, my readers, and all my supporters in the industry who, out of the kindness of their heart, have promoted my work despite ostensibly being a competitor.

Three people who have been especially instrumental in promoting my work have been Pat Kerrane, Drew Osinchuk, and Ben Gretch; each of whom of course is an incredibly valuable analyst in their own right.

Rookie Draft Tiers

As mentioned in my pre-draft ranks, I have a busy week of content ahead, including:

• Pre-Draft Rookie Ranks (posted Tuesday) including deep dives on all top prospects. Check that out if you want a far more detailed analysis on any of the rookies than is contained in this post.

• Today: Immediate Post-Draft Rookie Tiers

• Later (within a week): Updated rookie tiers which feature two sets of ranks - (1) my “vacuum” ranks (where I would draft these players without any knowledge of the market’s preferences) and (2) my “action” ranks (where I am drafting players on average considering my ranks and the market’s preferences, and setting target exposures). I will update each list throughout the month as needed.

• Within the next 2-4 days: Rookie Draft Walkthrough - in which I walk through each tier with an eye to how I’m planning to attack rookie drafts including spots I’m looking to trade up to, back from, or out of and some more market focused thoughts about how I build portfolios in rookie drafts

Rankings vs. ADP and Portfolio Management

These ranks are solely “vacuum” ranks. We just don’t have enough ADP yet from rookie drafts to make changes based on market considerations. I also prefer to do my 1.0 ranks without any outside information because it forces me to take complete conviction on my ranks and establish a baseline before being influenced later by the market and other analysts.

When drafting - especially if you are not drafting immediately - aim to draft your targets at ADP. When in a tier, try to trade back to the end of it.

As a portfolio player, I tend to approach my actual drafts a little differently than I do rankings. More than anything I determine which players in an ADP tier I want at-market exposure to and over-market exposure to. Then process of elimination tells me who I have to fade in order to hit those marks. From there it's a matter of execution. It’s a little like a game of “fuck, marry, kill.”

For example, last year in the 1.03 - 1.05 range I set Garrett Wilson as the player I was targeting heaviest, Treylon Burks as someone I wanted to be at least “at" market on, and Ken Walker as the option I was most accepting of a fade on.

As it happened, Wilson was the player most commonly available at my 1.05. Therefore, I generally tried to trade back from 1.03 or 1.04 to the 1.05 slot. I could typically get Wilson, and if not I could balance out some exposures by selecting Burks or Walker. When forced to pick at 1.03 or 1.04, I typically took Wilson, but mixed in Burks enough times to ensure I hit my desired balance once it became clear I could not rely on getting my Burks exposure at 1.05 only.

By end of rookie drafts, I had taken 10 Wilson, 6 Burks, 1 Walker. This is the type of stuff I’ll go into more detail on in my walk through piece, but it’s something to keep in mind as you read these ranks. If there is a ranking you think is likely way ahead of where you would ‘need’ to take a guy, don’t take that player over other options you want access to in your portfolio. I won’t be doing that either!

One last note: Last year I wrote a piece called Heuristics for Rookie Drafts. I think much of it is evergreen content that is still applicable and helps add context to both my ranks and how I approach drafts strategically.

The Ranks

Scoring: Based on Start 10, Super-Flex, 6pt pass TD, PPR, 0.5 TEP: adjust as needed

Tiers: The breaks are inherently subjective. I use numbers to outline breaks between fundamentally different asset classes, and letters to suggest gaps that are less fundamental, but where I would still not consider picking someone below the tier in a certain case based on positional need or exposure management.

• Example: I would under certain circumstances take Jahmyr Gibbs or Bryce Young 1.02. I would never take C.J. Stroud 1.02, but I value Stroud much closer to Young or Gibbs than I do Stroud and Quentin Johnston.

“Base picks" I am expressing the value of each tier in “Base picks.” This should help you discern the range of value I ascribe to a given trade up or down possibility.

• For more on that, check out this piece: effectively a “base” pick is a pick in the following year’s draft with an equal likelihood of slotting into any of the 12 positions.

• As a rule of thumb: 1 Base 1 = 3 base 2s, 1 base 2 = 3 base 3s, 1 base 3 = 2 base 4s (don’t send me 54 4ths for Bijan Robinson though)

Notes: I originally planned to publish these Sunday night with updated notes on each player. I figure it’s best you get my ranks as soon as possible so here are they are without notes (Remember, I have notes on almost everyone in the top two rounds in my pre-draft article). I’ll have notes added in 24-48 hours along with potential changes as I keep researching and tinkering.

TIER 1 - 3 Base 1s

1.01 - Bijan Robinson, ATL (RB1)