Rashee Rice Bombshell Instant Reactions and Rankings

And three more instances of the butterfly effect altering the fantasy football landscape

Welp… I was wrong.

There has been virtually no reporting on Rashee Rice’s criminal prosecution for a vehicular incident that occurred in the 2024 off-season in recent months.

The only “news” was a civil trial date set for January, which was wrongly interpreted to matter but was ultimately irrelevant.

With respect to his criminal matter, I subscribed to the “no news is good news” approach, and was confidently drafting Rashee Rice at Round 2/3 turn prices assuming his eventual suspension was more and more likely to be served in 2026 or beyond with each passing day and no scheduled trial.

Today’s news came relatively out of nowhere against that backdrop. While Adam Schefter’s first tweet was somewhat confusing, what appears to have happened is that Rashee Rice entered into a plea agreement (or more precisely a deferral agreement) without a hearing, and upon agreement to said plea, the Judge issued a corresponding sentence.

The details of that plea are that Rice pled guilty to a felony charge, but will recieve a far-reduced sentence: 5 years probation and 30 days jail time to be served at any point within the probationary period. If Rice complies with the terms of his sentence, the felony charge will be removed from his record (hence the “deferral”).

Here’s what this means for fantasy managers:

1. The NFL does not suspend players for criminal actions prior to the criminal matter being adjudicated. The only way players miss time prior to the conclusion of a criminal case is via the exempt list, which Rice was not placed on and did not appear to be at risk of being placed on. Now that the matter has concluded he is likely to be suspended this season.

2. The terms of the suspension are difficult to estimate percisely, but the most likely scenario would be between 4-6 games served at the beginning of the 2025 season. This is a fairly manageable timeline of games in a vacuum since (A) it doesn’t affect the playoff weeks, which is when the bulk of the money is determined, (B) it will supress his advance rate relative his production which will be quite helpful in the playoff weeks if he is a big hit upon his return, and (C) an early-season suspension is more manageable because it comes when your roster is healthiest and there are no bye weeks. However, at this moment we cannot be certain how many games the suspension will be or when it will be served so we should bake in some concern that this best case (and most likely) scenario does not happen. For reference, if it were to be announced tomorrow that he is suspended for four games I would move him up in my rankings from where he currently is, not down.

3. For dynasty, this suspension was always coming at some point so the reaction should not be as large. However, the five-year probation tag is troubling for a person who with all due respect has proven to be un-reliable. If Rice commits any breach of his probationary terms in the next five years he faces consdierable legal risks. This is an externality you need to be aware of throughout Rice’s prime as a dynasty manager and that’s worth a one-tier downgrade on his in a vacuum price in perpetuity.

The Butterfly Effect

I think this situation is uniquely complicated beyond the specifics of the suspension.

As has been debated all summer, we have only 3 games of Rice playing next to Xavier Worthy — and those were the latter’s first 3 games as a pro, long before his late-season breakout.

It is difficult to say exactly how the roles will be distributed between the two since we’ve never seen the two players at their ceiling playing at the same time. Moreover, Worthy’s best performances came when his role was adjusted to feature more low-ADOT work which has been Rice’s bread and butter throughout his NFL career to date.

In a vacuum, I think Rice is simply a better player than Worthy (or at least a much more fantasy-friendly one) and I expected him to take priority in the offense.

However, inertia is a powerful force. Worthy is now about to have a prolonged opportunity as a year 2 player to show that he can carry this offense as the WR1, while Rice will be jumping onto a moving train. If Worthy thrives, it will be more difficult for Rice to usurp him in-season than it may have been for him to simply beat him out from the jump.

This may even have ramifications for dynasty.

While in a vacuum we shouldn’t much care when the suspension was served, I would have far preferred that Rice had a chance to re-establish his ‘alpha’ status over Worthy before his disciplinary sabattical. There is a butterfly effect element to this which cannot be tossed aside and in my opinion meaningfully changes how we should view the pecking order between these two players, especially as it pertains to the quick-hitter targets they both require to hit their ceiling.

Of course, it’s also quite possible that Worthy and the Chiefs offense struggle without Rice, and when he returns he is viewed as a player they need to immediately prioritize in order to reach their ceiling as an offense. We can’t know which way this will go, but Worthy now has more control of his destiny than Rice has of his.

On that note, I feel much the same regarding the situations in Cleveland, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.

Quinshon Judkins has recently found himself in serious trouble with the law. This situation is quite new and thus the ramifications have a wider range of outcomes than discussed above with Rice. For all we know, the charges could be dropped and there could be no associated discipline at all. But because it’s a domestic violence case there is risk that Judkins is placed on the exempt list for part or all of this season even if the criminal matter is not concluded.

As the 36th overall pick, there was little doubt who would get the first crack at touches between himself and fellow-rookie Dylan Sampson in the Browns backfield. But Judkins has now forfeited that advantage. If Judkins is unavailable at any point this season — in particular for the start of this season — and Sampson takes advantage of the opportunity, the expected inertia of Judkins draft capital loses much of its effect, and Sampson now becomes the object who remains in motion.

I am drafting Sampson — who in a vacuum I think is a comparable talent to Judkins — very aggressively and fading Judkins for the moment until more information is revealed.

In Los Angeles, Najee Harris is missing time in training camp due to an unfortunate accident involving fireworks. While he’s expected to make a full recovery by the start of the season, Harris was perhaps the player most reliant on inertia in the fantasy landscape this year. Omarion Hampton is faster, younger, and better than Harris in virtually every way. As the anti-fragile bet in this backfield, almost any externality outside of a Hampton injury works to his benefit. Harris meanwhile was dependent on his status as a veteran and presumed Week 1 starter to sustain him in a meaningful role for as long as possible.

The longer Hampton has at training camp to demonstrate his talent with Harris absent, the more difficult it will be for Harris to re-assume control of this backfield, and the easier it will be for Hampton to become the bell cow sooner than later.

In San Francisco, Jauan Jennings is threatening a hold out and demanding a trade if he is not given a new contract (he is scheduled to make $7.5M this year and his contract expires this off-season). Jennings — like Rice — posted dominant per-route target earning in 2024, but faces a challenge from a year 2 first round pick who came on strong down the stretch.

I do not expect Jennings to be traded. But if he misses sustained time in training camp I think that matters a lot. Jennings asserted himself for only one year as a priority in this offense, and I believe that targets in the 49ers scheme are pre-determined by the play caller at a much higher frequency than in other offenses. If I were Jennings, I’d be concerned about leaving Ricky Pearsall alone in camp to earn Shanahan’s trust as the primary target. Jennings may struggle to be schemed up as many first-read looks as he was last year if he allows himself to be passed in the pecking order on the Kyle Shanahan trust tree.

These four situations are all unique in that they feature two players who have either never played together, or played together for a very limited period of time while one of the options was just emerging in the league.

In each case, there was a degree of pre-exisitng uncertainty in how the opportunities would be divied up among them. While I often emphasize that talent wins out in the end, there is unquestionably a degree to which inertia plays a role. If two players are equally capable of something, the tie will almost always go the one who is already doing it. Fragile incumbents losing the benefit of intertia gives upportunity to emerging players to establish a heightened priority within their offense and potentially never give it back.

After all, if inertia did not play a role in the allocation of playing time, this man might still be playing first base of the New York Yankees.

My up-dated rankings in dynasty / redraft / best ball are all below the pay wall.

Author’s Note: Just as i was set to publish this post, Jordan Addison accepted a plea in his DUI case. I expect he will be suspended between 1-3 games at the beginning of the NFL season. I’ve been ranking with this expectation in mind all summer and thus will not adjust my ranking until the official punishment is announced. I also think the concepts discussed in this article do not apply as much to Addison, who has a more established role within a relatively stable group of playmakers.