Round 1 NFL Mock Draft

Predicting picks 1-32 before the big day

Hello folks,

By this time I’ve written pretty much all I have to write on the prospects that will define this year’s rookie drafts.

I’ve published articles in the last few weeks on the QBs, RBs and WRs, and added an extended introduction on the TEs alongside my pre-draft fantasy rankings.

Immediately after the draft I will publish my post-draft fantasy rankings. As soon as reliable ADP is available i will post ADP-adjusted rankings, and my rookie draft walk through — in which I will discuss my target exposures for each player and trades I’m looking to make into, out of, or within the draft.

But for now we’re in the eye of the storm.

That means it’s time for me to have a little fun and do a mock draft for you. I’m not submitting this in any competition so you don’t have to worry about me trying to game the system. This is purely what I (wrongly) think will happen tomorrow night.

Hope you enjoy!

1. TEN — Cam Ward, QB (Miami)

2. CLE — Travis Hunter, WR/CB (Colorado)

3. NYG — Abdul Carter, EDGE (Penn State)

The first three picks have been more or less confirmed for weeks. If any go a different direction it’s likely due to a trade back from the Giants. I’d still put the odds of that under 5%.

4. NE — Will Campbell, OT (LSU)

This is where the draft effectively starts — though Campbell has emerged as the consensus selection. I’m much less sure of this compared to the first three picks. I’ve not heard any convicted reporting on the Patriots plans. Instead this largely seems to be a connection drawn between the consensus (but not universal) top OL in the class, and New England’s glaring need at the position.

I think it’s at least plausible the Patriots swing a trade or take Kelvin Banks or Armand Membou. I don’t personally buy the Ashton Jeanty angle here. That seems mostly to be speculation from people who want Jeanty rather than a reflection of the team’s thought process.

5. ** TRADE ** CHI — Ashton Jeanty, RB (Boise State)

Ok, here’s where it gets interesting.

I have no idea what the Jaguars are going to do.

For most of draft season the most likely selection in the betting market was Mason Graham — admittedly based on virtually nothing. Now that’s evolved with the (very) recent wave of reporting that the team is targeting a skill-position player at 5th overall — Ashton Jeanty or Tetairoa McMillan.

General Manager James Gladstone is on record stating that they want players who are “intangibly rich.”

Tetairoa McMillan has drawn some criticism for practice habits which makes him an awkward fit, and leaves Jeanty as the current favourite. Of course, Gladstone could easily have his own opinion of McMillan and his intangibles.

I buy that Jacksonville is putting a large emphasis on character. I have decided that I’m less attached to them targeting an offensive skill player. James Gladstone comes from the trade-happy Rams and may be looking to move down the board here. If he did, I thnk leaking Jeanty and McMillan interest is the best thing you could do.

Everyone thinks the Bears want Jeanty, and we know they have an extra Round 2 pick to play with in a trade up. If I wanted to entice the Bears to trade up with me, I would leak that I’m interested in Jeanty — giving the Bears two teams (my own and LVR) they need to consider picking before in order to secure their player. But I’d also leak McMillan — a player very likely to be available at pick 10 — as a fall back to make the Jeanty interest less transparently contrived.

Basically you want Chicago thinking that if you stay at 5 you will pick Jeanty, but you have a compelling enough backup plan that you’d move back for the right offer.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jaguars do actually pick Jeanty here, or if they pick McMillan in a trade down. But I personally think it’s all a successful ruse which ultimately leads the Bears to bite on a trade up for their coveted RB.

6. LVR — Armand Membou, OT (Mizzou)

For the record, I think the Raiders pass on Jeanty even if he is on the board here. I view Walker and Graham as legitimate options, but ultimately decided O-Line is the most pressing concern and went with Membou.

7. NYJ — Tyler Warren, TE (Penn State)

If Membou goes in the top-six, I think this comes down to Warren or Kelvin Banks. I went with Warren here as Aaron Glenn attempts to establish his new regime with a high-profile culture-setting selection.

8. CAR — Mykel Williams, DL (Georgia)

Carolina has needs all over their defense, and has their choice between interior help (Graham), a versatile pass-rusher (Walker), or an edge-setting end in Mykel Williams.

I think each is a reasonable and plausible choice. But Carolina’s run defense was especially putrid for two straight years, and I think Williams’ ability to set the edge against the run while providing plausible pass-rush upside will be attractive.

9. NWO — Kelvin Banks, OT (Texas)

New Orleans has plenty of intriguing options to choose from on defense with how this has shaken out, but I think they go O-Line with pick 9. I expect them to add their QB of the future either at pick 40 or via trade-up, and they’re going to pre-emptively invest in his safety after losing their long-time tackles in free agency and retirement over the past few seasons.

10. ** TRADE ** JAX — Jalon Walker, Edge/LB (Georiga)

The Jaguars are rewarded for their gamesmanship in the form of edge-rusher/line-backer hybrid Jalon Walker. I think it’s also possible they target Walker at 5 while the Bears get Jeanty at 10 without any trade.

11. SF — Walter Nolen, IDL (Ole Miss)

I think if Mykel Williams lasts to pick 11 he’s the target here. But with him off the board I think San Francisco takes another late riser on the D-Line.

12. DAL — Tetairoa McMillan, WR (Arizona)

I’m reasonably confident Dallas takes a WR here. I’m not remotely confident which one. Ultimately I’d rather be wrong betting on them to take the player I think is decisively better.

13. MIA — Mason Graham, IDL (Michigan)

If the board falls this way, Chris Grier will sprint to the podium to lock in this selection. Miami is likely targeting OL, IDL, and CB with their Day 1 and Day 2 picks. Catching a faller at a position of need is a dream come true.

14. IND — Colston Loveland, TE (Michigan)

If Tyler Warren gets past the Jets, there’s a reasonable chance he sneaks all the way to 14 — at which point you can write the pick in ink.

I’m not as confident the Colts would opt for Loveland (my TE1) given his shoulder concerns and less universal opinions on his blocking ability. However, I think it’s the most likely single option available.

This team is openly targeting a pass-catching TE on Day 1 or Day 2, and I think Loveland is the best value pick here at a position of need. If it’s not TE, keep an eye on o-lineman Grey Zabel. Chris Ballard loves a high-RAS player from a small school and has had hits with this archetype before. (Darius Leonard, Bernhard Raimann)

15. ATL — Mike Green, EDGE (Marshall)

The Falcons have been linked to both productive edge prospects with potential character concerns (Green and James Pearce Jr.)

I think either is in play, but Green seems to be mocked higher generally so I’ll slot him in here.

16. ARI — Will Johnson, CB (Michigan)

The Cardinals should be looking at secondary or interior defensive line here. Will Johnson has medical concerns and is not a scheme fit for everyone. But Jonathan Gannon is a zone-heavy play-caller who will make good use of Johnson’s instincts and ball skills.

17. CIN — Derrick Harmon, IDL (Oregon)

Joe Goodbery has identified the D-Line — both inside and outside — as the target for the Bengals early. I’ll go inside here and give them Harmon.

18. SEA — Grey Zabel, IOL (North Dakota State)

If Zabel makes it past the Colts, this is a common fit that I’ll tail. Seattle desperately needs to re-shape their IOL to give the Sam Darnold experiment an opportunity to succeed.

19. TB — Jihaad Campbell, LB (Alabama)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in many ways defined by elite off-ball linebacker play. Derrick Brooks is a franchise legend, and Lavonte David is not far behind. The Bucs also invested early in the position with Devin White — though to less successful results.

I think they go back to the well here and take David’s successor in Jihaad Campbell. Campbell would likely not be available here if not for a shoulder injury that could keep him on PUP to start the season. But few GMs have more job security than Jason Licht. He can take the long view with this pick.

20. ** TRADE ** NO — Jaxson Dart, QB (Ole Miss)

Denver is on record prioritizing the RB position, and valuing RBs who contribute in the receiving game and pass protection specifically. That screams TreVeyon Henderson to me.

The Broncos could also use a WR but the one they’ve done the most work on is Luther Burden — a consensus Round 2 pick.

I think Denver is well-positioned to trade out of the first round, knowing there is a good chance one of Burden or Henderson is there for them in Round 2 (or acquirable via a subsequent trade up).

Meanwhile, the Saints are rumoured to favour Jaxson Dart ahead of Shedeur Sanders. I think the same is true of the Pittsburgh Steelers — who pick next.

Mickey Loomis is known to be aggressive, so I’ll say he uses the extra 3rd and 4th round picks at his disposal in this year’s draft to help facilitate a move into Round 1 to secure his QB of the future.

21. PIT — Omarion Hampton, RB (North Carolina)

I don’t buy Shedeur Sanders as a fit for Arthur Smith’s offense. I also don’t buy Jalen Milroe as a Round 1 QB. I think each of those are possible, but the QB I think the Steelers would most consider at this pick is Dart — who just came off the board in this scenario.

That leaves the Steelers picking the top player on their board — who I think will be Omarion Hampton. As a Jaylen Warren truther, I hope to mush this one.

22. LAC — Kenneth Grant, IDL (Michigan)

Where did Jim Harbaugh used to coach again? Oh ya, right.

23. GB — Donovan Ezeiraku, EDGE (Boston College)

Packers need a difference maker at WR or edge. I think if McMillan lasts here he gets a long look, but in this scenario I think the player who best fits the Packers ‘type’ at a position they’ll target is Ezeiraku.

24. ** TRADE ** NYG — Shedeur Sanders, QB (Colorado)

Minnesota has only 4 picks in this draft and is likely to be a top trade partner option for any team looking to swing back into the first round.

If 2 QBs are off the board by this point (either due to a trade up or the Steelers selection), I suspect whichever teams of NYG, CLE, and NO have not yet taken a QB will be getting antsy.

I think NYG is more committed to securing a QB early in this draft than Cleveland and will ultimately win the bidding war for Shedeur Sanders, though the possibility of pairing Hunter with Sanders must be appealing to the Browns.

I don’t necessarily expect it to be at precisely 24. But I do think Sanders winds up a Giant or Brown at some point — either in the late-1st or at their respective picks in the early-2nd.

25. HOU — Josh Simmons, OT (Ohio State)

The Texans are remaking their offensive line on the fly this season, and are fortunate to have one of the most talented linemen in the draft fall in their lap at pick 25. I think they find a way past medical and character concerns for the upside of a potential top-10 talent in this draft at a position of dire need.

26. LAR — Matthew Golden, WR (Texas)

The Rams are rumoured to be targeting an offensive weapon. I think Egbuka is a great Rams fit, but Golden would provide a dynamic down-field element their offense currently lacks.

This could be a fun long-term landing spot if Sean McVay can maximize his skill-set.

27. BAL — Jahdae Barron, CB (Texas)

The Ravens love to catch fallers in the draft, and Barron happens to be one at a position of need for them.

28. DET — Tyler Booker, IOL (Alabama)

Booker fills a need and hits the character-type the Lions typically target.

29. WSH — Emeka Egbuka, WR (Ohio State)

The Commanders could go in several directions here. But I think they could still use a young stud at WR despite their investment in Deebo Samuel. Samuel, McLaurin and Ertz are not going to be the long-term weaponry for Jayden Daniels’ reign over the NFC — but Egbuka could be.

30. BUF — Maxwell Hairston, CB (Kentucky)

The Bills desparately need a corner, and are too close to Super Bowl contention to ignore such a pressing need. I think they take the highest available on their board.

31. KC — Josh Conerly Jr., OT (Oregon)

See above, but at Tackle.

32. PHI — Shemar Stewart, DL (Texas A&M)

‘Howie does it again’… taking a premium position player several folks have mocked much higher.

FIRST FIVE OUT:

• Malaki Starks, Safety (Georgia)

• Nick Emmanwori, Safety (South Carolina)

• TreVeyon Henderson, RB (Ohio State)

• James Pearce Jr., Edge (Tennessee)

• Donovan Jackson, IOL (Ohio State)