Season's Eve Mailbag Answers

Wishing you all an incredible season in 2024!

Earlier this week I asked for your mailbag questions on ANY topic. Here are my answers. Let’s dive in:

Week 1

How concerning did you find mark Andrews usage last night? He must still be recovering to some extent, but the concurrent emergence of likely seems like bad news to me.

It’s definitely a downgrade… but I’m probably more likely to buy than sell. Andrews is 30, which for an elite TE is typically still a part of the prime. It’s fully possible that the injury has left him a shell of himself at least for this year and any buy-price should reflect that, but I don’t think the odds of that being the case are that much higher because of Week 1.

He’s only cleared 22 yards vs. the Spagnoulo Chiefs one time in his career — and he faced the highest double-team rate he’s seen in 4 years. I don’t think we saw the Ravens run their offense how they wanted to this week, instead proactively drawing up a lot of low-ADOT touches because of O-Line concerns, and then needing to check down or scramble out of necessity. The O-Line will hurt Andrews all year, but you’d hope that as they gel and get better matchups they will eventually wind up in spots where Andrews — more of an intermediate target — can be a primary focus.

All-Formats

Jakob, what are your thoughts on the historical lessons of the 2002 “Randy Ratio “ as it pertains to Malik Nabers’ true upside in the 2024 Giants offense? (https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/k15rl6/was_the_randy_ratio_successful/)

The Randy Ratio was the notion that the Vikings wanted to give Moss a 40% target share, and doing so would lead to a successful offense. They never quite hit it, but they got reasonably close! And they did have a good offense in 2004 despite little else on it.

I think Nabers is likely to be the player that everything is built around, and that will be to the offense’s benefit. I still doubt it’s better than the 18-24th best offense: we’d happily sign for that in fact. But to me the important part is less how often he’s thrown to and more how they get the ball in his hands. You can’t just sit back and let him get doubled: you need to move him to all positions in the alignment and then mix in some carries and some schemed touches: force the defense to account for him at all levels and then let others work off the gravity he creates.

For start/sit decisions, how much stock would you put into Vegas prop lines?

I think it matters if you are eyeballing it. But if you look at any projection source, that will already be baked into the projection. So don’t double count! It matters most at QB, and for rush-first RBs.

You often provide actionable content in the form of either examples of trades/drafts or by explaining/expanding on theory of your beliefs, and i know you don’t spend as much time personally invested into your own dynasty rosters due to seasonal content/rosters/etc… with that in mind what’s one thing that you think you might not do as much or as well as you should be doing that would most benefit your teams if you did do it or had more time for it?

The actual answer here is just grinding waivers in dynasty. I used to be extremely deliberate about grinding every edge on my dynasty rosters, rostering tons of UDFAs post-draft, and being first to the wire on every injury or signing news. That’s really gone by the wayside with the time I put into my job, content, and my higher-stakes tournament drafts. Grinding the wire in dynasty is still a huge edge and you should do it. It’s just not worth quite as much EV as some other stuff as my play-level and work-level have increased.

I benefitted greatly last year from your Achane take. But I haven’t seen him discussed too thoroughly in these halls yet for 24. I know you moved him to a target in the latest ranks. Is he worth elaborating on in the context of auction leagues, where you really have to pay for upside?

I don’t play much auction and I suspect your league has now drafted. But I’m high on Achane still — he is a plausible best RB talent in the league. I do think it’s notable that he’s been more expensive in tournaments than home leagues even though RBs are generally cheaper: people are getting better at this game.

He’s a much higher risk pick given the opportunity cost at WR and role concerns. However, if you want a RB in his range he is clearly the one with the best path to extreme upside.

You’ve been higher on Jaleel after seeing his passing down usage in the preseason. My question though is how much stock should we put into something like this? We saw them try him out in these situations last year only to phase him out once they concluded he was too small. Couldn’t they just be experimenting again this preseason only to go back to exclusively Javonte on passing downs in the regular season?

Yeah that’s totally possible. But I think generally teams don’t do situationally designated usage like that for no reason. So I think it either means he has that role, or at least he’s being auditioned for that role. That’s why it was especially important to me that he looked good in that role when he got a shot.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty here, but I think the key is that he has potentially more room for role expansion, especially in a contingent scenario, than I’d projected before.

The edge across all fantasy football platforms is rapidly deteriorating (some faster than others of course). What do you think is next for the fantasy football community that is looking to play for profit (and why is it college fantasy football)? 2. You have wisely shifted your content towards best-ball and high stakes this offseason, will you be continuing this shift with more dfs focused content like your show with Davis from last year and your free squares show you previously hosted? 3. How would you grow and manage a bankroll as someone like myself that is just starting a real life career post college?

It’s funny you put that in brackets because I do think College Football is one spot where there is a ton of edge. There’s just far less content on that format, and less statistical modelling. Also with so many more teams and an inherently shorter track record for each player there is much more uncertainty. It’s clearly an area to invest in both as a player or content creator. But I also think that a lot of the edge remains in all formats because at the end of the day you are playing vs. people, and people will always be too certain that the most recent thing that worked is going to work again. I don’t think we’re always making linear progress as a market, and there will always be exploits.

Yes, I’m doing the DFS show with Davis Mattek on his Youtube and Podcast Channels every Thursday AM. [RECEIVED OTHER Qs ON THIS: THIS WILL BE MY SOLE DFS CONTENT]

I would start with the amount of money you’re willing to lose without it disrupting your life. And then I would focus on contests and formats that fit your strengths and where you are more likely to realize any edge you have. That probably means smaller field, smaller stakes contests, where the ultimate payout is not as large, but you get a chance to experiment, and hopefully grow your roll over time.

I appreciate all of your content, Jakob! It is a fun, creative mix of content that gives me an edge and makes me think and laugh. I read your Pareto Principle article and have been a follower since. (questions follow)

1. Do you plan to ever do any C2C or Devy content?

Not in the immediate offing. It’s just such a time commitment to do it at the level I’d want to and I don’t have much additional time to devote to this.

1a) If not - do you have any analysts, podcasts, or tools you recommend?

Yes — check out the Campus2Canton boys and everything they offer in both content and tools.

1b) If not - any high-level strategies (not player takes) for new players to use as a framework?

Generally speaking I’ve been successful in Devy / C2C by fading high-priced Devy assets — especially at QB and RB — and focusing more on assets with a much higher floor, since uncertainty is so high, and then taking a lot of dart throws on lower-cost devy assets, with a path to upside (see: Daniels, Jayden)

I am also very willing to roster high-producing college assets in C2C and then accept any NFL production as a bonus.

Lastly, you want to stay young at the NFL level since the rebuilding process is less predictable and possibly much more arduous. I would not recommend my “conveyor belt” strategy in Devy/C2C.

Not a question but I want to shout out the Best Picks For Every RB Room piece you wrote this year as being one of, if not the, most useful fantasy pieces I read this offseason. It was immensely helpful for thinking about my team constructions across different league formats and identifying which bench players are the best ones to target based on early round draft strategy. It was also useful to get some content centered around ESPN's rankings, a ranking set that is pretty widely diverged from the rest of the market and thus requires a bit of a different mindset but is ever-present in home leagues.

Thank you !!!! I really enjoyed writing it, glad you liked it.

I saw the note in the Annotated RB Tiers about the "Pe-Line" being back now that Perine is back in a good situation. Is Tier 11 the lowest tier of backs you consider for that, or would you rank Tier 12 above some lower end WRs too? Where do you put the line for WRs?

So the Pe-Line is related to WRs. Basically the idea was that once you get to a point where no WR is a rookie, a second-yer player, or a WR you can reasonably project to score 10PPG, then you should roster any RB with a reasonable chance to start in the case of an injury instead of them. Back then Perine was on the Bengals and one of the lowest-valued backup RBs so that’s why I called it the “Pe-Line.”

Also, on some dynasty teams I have ended up with only one viable starting QB for a variety of reasons. What is your thought on rostering backup QBs? Is it worth a roster spot, or better to use the spot on some of these contingent value RBs and wait to grab a backup on waivers once we know who is actually going to be thrust into the starting role?

Totally worth it. I’d apply the same reasoning above — players like Darius Slayton / DJ Chark, and arguably even Darnell Mooney / Adam Thielen types are just not worth it in dynasty since they have a very limited path to accruing value, and are unlikely to start for you outside of very deep leagues (or best ball). At that point it’s better to use assets to address weaknesses or add contingent value and backup QBs is a way to do that.

Which format of fantasy football do you think is most exploitable (redraft, dynasty, best ball, other), and why?

College Fantasy / Devy / C2C is by far the biggest edge since that’s where there is the least information and content. But after that I think it’s managed redraft: people just do not plan well for contingency scenarios and the fact that you get to improve the value of your weak-points by managing your team throughout the year. It’s way softer than best ball.

Dynasty can be very soft or very sharp, it just totally depends on who you play against. If you want a monetary edge, play with people off Sleeper forums and not from your twitter group chats.

What are your thoughts on Keon Coleman at this point? I know you weren’t a fan before the Bills landing spot, but your rankings indicate he might be worth the bet to some degree. Do you feel any optimism for him?

I think in spots like this we always want to have a lot of humility. We know that Josh Allen’s WR1 is extremely valuable in fantasy, so in the event Coleman hits, he has huge value upside. I don’t love the prospect, but I trust myself to play the market more than I trust myself to play the prospecting game. His price so far reflect that people are likely too certain he’s bad. This also applies to Xavier Legette. Just see Rashee Rice last year for an example of how this pays off.

What piece of fantasy analysis you consumed this offseason challenged you most, or made you reassess a previous stance the best?

How will you help me cope if the Raiders miss use Brock Bowers?

Distract the bank examiner with an interpretive dance…

I do think it’s pretty possible he’s mis-used. But also some of my biggest criticisms of the Getsy offense was over-using Cole Kmet so that might work in Bowers’ favour. I was encourage by what we saw in pre-season.

Dynasty

How do you bounce back from a failed “all-in” season? I traded a lot of capital to build a contender last year and was bounced in the semi-finals. I have since tried to recalibrate and trade into younger, talented players, and am currently sitting in the bottom third of teams according to Dynasty-Daddy contending standings. I do not have my 2025 first and have been unsuccessful trading for it, so feels bad to completely tank. Any advice?

That’s too bad. One of the most mutually beneficial spots you can have in dynasty is someone trading for their own 1st back. I would really try to reason with that manager.

If it is totally off the table, then I think you ride it out early-season, but don’t spend any more picks. See if your team surprises or if maybe the manager with your 1st changes his mind.

If your team fails to get off to a good start, and you can’t get your 1st back, then it’s time to do a “re-load.” No point in worrying about the sunk cost of your 1st, trade off any expiring or prime assets for picks and injured players in-season, but no need to burn it all to the ground: your MaxPF can’t hurt you.

Will you be posting WR QB and TE Dynasty tiers like you did with RB? Those were easier to read :-D

I apologize but likely not.. I try to blend micro with macro stuff but RB is really where I think I have a micro edge. I also think the nature of the position — how touches are allocated situationally, and the aspect of contingent value — lends itself more to the systematic type of analysis I do with RBs, and that doesn’t necessarily apply the same way to other positions.

After reviewing your recent RB ranks I have been trying to sell off my Gibbs on a bye-contender (also own JT). Tiering up to Bijan/Breece or tiering “down” to Achane hasn’t been successful. What do you suggest are other RBs to target? Do I go for a Barkley plus a base 1st? I think Gibbs’ value might be at his peak and would prefer to move off him before the season begins.

One thing I’d consider is moving laterally — Gibbs for a WR perhaps. And then in a separate deal try to send out base 2 value for a veteran RB like a Mixon / Conner / Jones / Kamara etc.

What are your main priorities for managing your dynasty teams in the first few weeks of the season?

Take inventory — use a value source to determine where you stand. (KTC power rankings are strong, but you could also use my ranks: the average team has 16 Base 1s value so see where you stand vs. that including all your picks)

Then try to determine what the best goal is for your team: adding points, adding value, tanking, contending etc.

Then try and work deals based on that. But the most important decision to make early in season is what direction to go in.

Also you want to be active. Generally I think the best opportunities for early-season trades is to buy high on rookies or 2nd-year players who establish themselves as studs, but who managers are willing to sell for a “profit” on their old price. You want to be fast to adjust to good bets.

Seasonal

In 0.5 PPR managed, which pairing would you take - Mahomes and Bowers or Daniels and Kincaid? Thinking through how critical it is to avoid missing the top 7 TE tier break.

Mahomes and Bowers.

Personal / Other

I love your Celtics content. I am a Wolves fan, so I have rooted for the C's as well since the KG days. Which NFL player would you comp to Rudy Gobert? Both in team impact and how the media portrays him.

Haha, that’s a great one. I’m definitely on the side of Rudy being under rather than over-rated. From a ‘what he does’ standpoint the comp is probably like DeForest Buckner… but from a media protrayal vs. actual ability standpoint I would say Dak Prescott, in terms of a player who is consistently under-rated and focused on for their faults rather than strengths.

I heard you mention Nate Silver's new book on one of your shows. I am a fan/substack subscriber to him as well. He has discussed how hard it is to make money in the sportsbetting world due to sites putting limits on sharp players. It appears that you are around a lot of betting sharps (or at least Twitter thinks they are sharp). Are they having a level of success where they are limited by "Vegas"?

Yes, almost anyone I know who takes sports betting seriously has to contend with being limited. But this is a better question for them than me on the specifics. I do very little traditional betting and the sportsbook landscape for a Canadian is quite different.

Give me two Survivors you’d want to see back for season 50- one has to be from season 41-46 and the other has to be someone not included in Winners at War.

I’ll go 2 for each category:

New Era: Omar Zaheer, Claire Rafson

Older: Chris Daugherty, Sean Rector

Political question here (feel free to not answer): As a leftist in the USA, the last few weeks from the Harris campaign have been very disappointing (from her comments on Palestine, to increased rhetoric on the border/immigration). Do you see this as true shift in her views from 2020, or rather a tactic to attract more of the centrist vote, only to revert back to her previous, and more humane, stances on these issues?

I think it’s likely her views aren’t particularly in line with either her positions now or her positions in 2020. A more important distinction in political views than one’s ideal policy positions is the value someone places on maintaining principles vs. attempting to wield power through politics. Harris is very much in the latter category — and personally I don’t think that’s obviously bad: you may disagree.

But the realist take is that the G.O.P. is almost very likely to win the Senate, which really reigns in what Harris can actually accomplish policy-wise in any event. Even if the Democrats win every swing seat, they probably keep a 1-vote margin in the Senate, which means the policy agenda is whatever the centre-most Democratic Senator wants it to be.

I’m not sure that on most issues it’s worth the rhetorical trade off when on things like Medicare 4 All for instance, it’s just not achievable anyhow, regardless of Harris’s intention.

With respect to the Border and especially on Foreign Policy, Harris has more executive agency, so it should be a concern when she diverges from your views on those issues. I have substantial criticisms of the Biden-Harris administration on Israel-Palestine, and while I think Harris is more modern in her thinking regarding the region, I don’t think the policy shift will be a massive one. For instance, there is almost no chance of conditioning arms. I disagree with that policy position, and in a vacuum I do think it’s an issue worth withholding a vote over. I’m not American so it’s not my decision to make, but if you’re in a swing-state and considering not voting for Harris from a leftist perspective, I still think that it’s clearly better for America, the World, and definitely for Palestinians, that Harris is in the White House than Trump. I’m a fairly pragmatic person in my politics and voting decisions irrespective of quite left wing policy views. But everyone is entitled to their own approach and their “red lines.”

What are your three favorite movies and/or TV's shows of all time? Now for each, which NFL player is going to have a 2024 storyline similar to those movies/shows?

Movies: The Departed, Moulin Rouge, Lord Of the Rings: The Two Towers

TV Shows: Community, Succession, Game of Thrones

The second part of this is impossible hahaha… but I’ll say that JK Dobbins = Bran Stark, Jonathan Taylor = Gandalf the White, and Rashee Rice = Jeff Winger.