The DK Metcalf Trade, Early FA Thoughts, and what we can learn from it in Fantasy Football

This weekend I was about halfway through writing a piece on why I think dynasty players have become too attached to “market value” in recent years, at the expense of championship equity.

That piece will still come out soon enough, but we got a DK Metcalf trade which dropped the day prior to Free Agency and I think there are some parallels between common sentiment on the trade and the overly-conservative mindset of dynasty players.

I’ll note quickly by the way that I will have thoughts on each major free agency signing and trade on this site eventually so consider this the first of a few posts on the subject.

DK Metcalf was moved to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2nd-round pick, and was immediately extended for a reported 5 years and $150M. Because the first of those years is his existing final year, the extension is more accurately described as 4 years and $132M. It does not appear immediately clear what percentage of that is fully guaranteed, but there is no doubt that he’s been paid handsomely at an AAV of $33M for multiple years.

Consider that Justin Jefferson signed for 4 years and $140 Million last June — which at the time was the highest non-QB contract in the NFL. Nobody would argue that Metcalf is 94% the player that Jefferson is.

However, Metcalf’s contract was not signed in a vacuum. The cap is rising at the same time that teams are increasingly aware of positional value, and anxious to acquire and retain impact players at the most important positions at (almost) any cost. On the same day of Metcalf’s trade, Myles Garrett became the first $40M non-QB in the NFL.

Whenever and for whomever Ja’Marr Chase signs his next multi-year contract, he will almost certainly exceed Garrett’s number.

The price of the brick has only gone up, and up, and up at the WR position. The situation is no different at Tackle and Edge where a rotational edge player like Dayo Odeyingbo just cashed in for $16M per year, and a backup tackle (Jaylon Moore) just locked in $15M each spin around the sun.

So while DK Metcalf is not as impactful of a WR as the majority of his colleagues signed at the same salary range today, I strongly suspect that if he maintains his current level of play for three more seasons, his contract will not look out of place.

And yet, a common sentiment all over the various ‘apps’ was that Metcalf was not worth with Pittsburgh gave up to acquire him. These opinion largely break down into one or more of the following arguments:

1. Metcalf does not provide on-field value commensurate with $33M

2. Teams spending a valuable draft pick for the right to pay a market-value contract is poor process

3. The market for WRs is rising to a degree that is not reasonable

Of these, the last part is in my opinion the easiest to dismiss. Yes, we appear to be exiting an extreme pass-heavy meta into a more balanced phase of the league. But that does not mean WRs — especially game-breaking outside WRs — are not important.