Hello and welcome to Year 4 of the Hitchhiker’s Guide. While it’s taken a couple different forms since starting up over on PlayerProfiler, we found our groove last season and will be running back the same format. That means you can expect the following starting next week:
Tuesday: The Sunday Drive. I recap each backfield with any meaningful injury or usage shift, and predict how the backfield will evolve the coming week adn over the rest of the season. I also provide my waiver priority list.
Saturday: The Streamer Stock Watch. I run through the outlook of each back who had an ADP of Round 7 or later (the “streamers”), provide my weekly rankings, and my rest-of-season and dynasty outlook in the format of my annotated running back tiers.
Because this is Week 1, things are going to be a bit different. First, there is obviously no recap column. Second, I want to establish a “level-set” for every backfield. That means in today’s column as well as Tuesday’s Sunday Drive, we will discuss every backfield in the NFL. Third, to give everyone a taste of the centrepiece of Thinking About Thinking’s in-season content, I will make today’s and next Tuesday’s article free to all subscribers. This article will be pay-walled beginning with the Week 2 Streamer Stock Watch.
I also want to note that I’ll be including more explicit DFS analysis in the piece this year. That’s especially relevant in Week 1. A key to Week 1 DFS is considering what inputs go into the major projection models across the industry that drive tournament ownership, and questioning which inputs may be wrong. At the end of the day, even the most sophisticated projection models is based on a person, or team of people, inputting assumptions about usage. Those assumptions are well-informed, but are highly subjective — especially given the lack of certainty about role distributions in Week 1. Throughout today’s piece I’ve hit on some projection inputs around the industry I think are different from my expectations, which are the basis for some of my favourite DFS targets this Sunday.
Let’s Dive in!
Metrics Legend:
From Pro Football Focus
PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus
From NFL NextGen Stats
RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)
ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)
From the FantasyPoints Data Suite
YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt
YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt
MTF/A = Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt
EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards
YPRR: Yards per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]
TPRR: Targets per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]
Other Terminology
HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and carries inside the 10)
LDD: Long Down and Distance situations — 3rd and 5+
2MD: Two-Minute Drill
THE WEEK 1 LEVEL SET
Before getting into the Week 1 Streamer Stock Watch tier list, we’re going to predict the usage out of every backfield in Week 1 (and surely get several wrong). We’ll take a look back at this on Tuesday and establish our “level” across the league.
Group 1: The Workhorses
Indianapolis Colts
Expect Taylor to handle almost every carry and early-down snap, while DJ Giddens plays the majority of LDD snaps and likely the 2MD. This mirrors several splits across the league, but Taylor’s monopoly of early-down carries is so extreme that the snap share will be closer to 80/20 than 60/40 unless the Colts face heavily negative game script.
Regardless of the snap ratio, Taylor will see almost every touch in this backfield when healthy. Giddens will serve as both the complement and the all-situations RB2, which has made him an especially interesting best ball option all summer.
Baltimore Ravens
I have granted Derrick Henry workhorse status because of the raw number of touches he commands but the snap split will likely tell a different story. Justice Hill will play the LDD and 2MD, while mixing in for early-down work — particularly when the team wants to pass. In negative script, snaps can creep close to 50/50 even if Henry has 70-80% of the touches.
The wildcard this year is whether Keaton Mitchell takes a meaningful slice of the early-down work. I’m guessing he doesn’t, but might get a handful of snaps each game and 2-3 touches.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals look poised to return to the split they used to run with Joe Mixon. Chase Brown will play the Mixon role, soaking up virtually every carry. Samaje Perine will play the old … Samaje Perine role, eating up 25-30% of the snaps each week in LDD situations but seeing very few touches. I expect if Brown were to suffer an injury, Perine’s role would slightly expand but Tahj Brooks will be the main beneficiary despite likely not having any meaningful standalone role.
Tennessee Titans
Whenever Tyjae Spears missed time last season Tony Pollard operated as an all-situations workhorse, only leaving the field when he needed an occasional breather. His current backups are the rookie Kalel Mullings — who is also battling an injury, and incumbent Julius Chestnut.
I think Pollard is one of the best bets to lead all Week 1 RBs in snap share, projecting to be the preferred option in every conceivable game situation.
Las Vegas Raiders
Even in Week 1 I expect Ashton Jeanty to see almost every touch out of the Raiders backfield. Perhaps Raheem Mostert mixes in for a series or two.
Pay close attention to whether Dylan Laube is active on game day. Laube may draw some LDD snaps from Jeanty early in the season, but if he’s scratched none of the other backs profile to take that work.
It’s a marginal difference but could affect his DFS outlook by a projected reception or two.
Philadelphia Eagles
See the Colts backfield blurb from earlier. The Eagles split was identical last year and Shipley will step into the Gainwell role. Of course Barkley has a higher weekly floor and ceiling than Taylor due to the better environment around him.
Green Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs will lose more snaps than you’d think but sees the ball so frequently when he’s on the field it doesn’t matter much. Emmanuel Wilson should get a series or so per half, and Chris Brooks is the favourite to play LDD snaps.
Jacobs’ snap shares last year were inversely correlated to the team’s total run rate. I.E. Jacobs will get his touches no matter what, and the other backs only get more involved if they are running it even more than usual.
If the Packers tilt more pass heavy this year I expect Jacobs will see a higher snap share and maintain his raw workload.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara has become a true workhorse when healthy the past couple seasons after spending most of his career as the 1A in an extremely high-XFP backfield.
Kamara doesn’t add much as a rusher at this stage of his career so it would not surprise me if he wound up in more of a committee over time. But neither Kendre Miller nor rookie Devin Neal are proven enough to eat into Kamara’s touches out of the gate.
Expect Kamara to play in all passing situations, only ceding a handful of between-the-20s rushes to Kendre Miller in Week 1. I do think this distribution has more room to move over time than any “split” discussed thus far.
Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson steadily distanced himself from Tyler Allgeier over the course of last season and I expect him to largely pick up where he left off. Both backs can play in all situations, so expect Allgeier to largely be used intermittently — whenever Robinson is tired.
Robinson is the preferred if not exclusive back in passing situations so he should see the bulk of LDD, is a relative lock for the 2MD, and will see a higher snap share in trail script.
Los Angeles Rams
My opinion on what the Rams should do is likely known to most readers. I’m under no illusion that it matches what Sean McVay will do — at least in Week 1.
I expect Blake Corum to resume his “third drive of each half” role from late last season. Part of the fun of this strict deployment is that depending on the sequencing of the game it can seem as though Corum has been removed from the offense entirely or has played into an even split by the mid-point of the 2nd quarter. I would not read much into it for as long as his role remains confined to one drive per half.
Sean McVay has alluded to the possibility of using Jarquez Hunter in a change-of-pace role this season after being inspired by Liam Coen. I think that could happen over the course of the season, but old habits die hard. I would be genuinely (albeit pleasantly) surprised if Hunter plays a single snap when the game is competitive this Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers
The notion that Brian Robinson Jr. is a threat to Christian McCaffrey’s goal-line role is one of the more bizarre narratives to emerge from fantasy twitter this off-season. To say I’ll need to see it to believe it is an understatement.
I expect McCaffrey to play almost every snap in every situation for as long as the game is in the balance.
Group 2: Clear Lead Backs
Buffalo Bills
The Bills established a predictable three-way split over the latter half of 2024 that I expect to carry over to this season. James Cook is the focal point of the backfield, and will receive the bulk of the HVTs. He may only play 40-50% of snaps but he’ll see a clear majority of carries, they’ll scheme him up creative usage in the passing game, and he is now entrenched as the goal-line back.
Ray Davis will mix in for some early-down snaps, but mostly sees lower-value touches: inside handoffs between-the-twenties.
Ty Johnson is the LDD and 2MD back. The team has called Johnson the best 3rd down back in the league so there’s no reason to expect him to lose this role. It’s not fantasy viable on its own but it leaves Cook as more of a high-end RB2 with elite spike week potential, rather than a set and forget RB1.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane is reportedly good to go, which makes sense given it has never been reported by anyone at any time that he was in any danger of missing Week 1. Everyone has been acting hysterical about it for literally no reason other than that Christian McCaffrey had a calf injury last year and missed half a season. Notably, about 1,000 other players have had calf injuries in the past decade and most returned approximately when the team said they would. It seems Achane will fall into this camp.
Given Achane’s apparent fine-ness, I have been confused by the extent of Ollie Gordon’s rise up the ADP landscape. He’s become an exciting contingent bet after seemingly securing the RB2 role. In fact, he is my most rostered player in the FFPC Main Event — though these shares were drafted in Round 14 or later.
The level of conviction about Gordon’s talent seems entirely speculative to me. Yes, he was an elite producer in 2023, but his efficiency was not beyond reproach and he was terrible in 2024. Then he fell to Round 6 of the NFL Draft, and was reportedly behind Alexander Mattison until the veteran suffered a season-ending injury.
I understand rookie optimism, believe me. I understand the intrigue with Gordon as a late-round bet. But I’ve recently seen Gordon go higher than backs like Blue, Tuten, Sampson, and Skattebo — each of whom has a very obvious pathway to being the lead back on their own team without an injury (or a conspiracy theory).
In 2023 the Dolphins offense supported two (very) startable backs. But it’s hard to see the path for that returning. First off, the team scored a league-leading 27 rushing TDs in that season. There’s no basis to assume they will be anywhere near that number in 2025, given they have a Vegas win-total of 7.5. Remember that De’Von Achane saw only 103 carries that season and largely hit due to absolutely singular efficiency. Ollie Gordon could easily that many carries, but score a third of Achane’s rookie year PPG.
The Dolphins have not been a source of rushing-based fantasy value in any other season under McDaniel. In 2022, Mostert was a great hit at a dirt cheap cost, but neither him nor committee-mate Jeff Wilson Jr. had league winning production in a vacuum. In 2024, De’Von Achane had an elite fantasy role but it was built entirely on passing-game work that seemed uniquely designed for him and is unlikely to transfer to any other back on the roster.
Season-long, I think Ollie Gordon belongs closer to the D.J. Giddens and Will Shipley tier of handcuffs with a weekly role than the Skattebo / Tuten / Blue tier of home run swings.
My Week 1 expectation is for Achane to see roughly 70% of the snaps while Gordon mixes in as an all situations backup. This likely includes some early down carries and may include LDD work. However, the team sometimes uses Alec Ingold as the secondary back in LDD instead.
Achane is also known to line up as a receiver, which could mean some rare chances for two-back sets where Gordon is alone in the backfield.
The most important question is who gets the goal-line role. This is a boring answer, but I expect a split that is largely proportionate to their overall role distribution. The team has never shown an inclination to systematically pull Achane at the goal-line, and they even have specific packages for him in the green-zone as both a rusher and receiver.
I expect Gordon to mix in throughout the game and that may include at the goal-line if he’s already in the game or they want to go with heavier personnel. But I’m expecting a split here, which will likely be volatile and could lend itself to over-confident narratives built on sequencing early in the year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco is back to health and by all accounts the clear leader in the running back room. I’ll admit to having forgotten about Kareem Hunt’s many years as an LDD back next to Nick Chubb in Cleveland after sitting through Kareem Hunt the excruciating plodder last season, but he does have that background.
Pacheco has mixed in for passing downs at times, but the Chiefs have always deployed a strict LDD / 2MD back throughout his career and I suppose Hunt is the most likely option. Wheels up for Pacheco if he gets this role — it’s possible.
The best pass-catching back on the roster is rookie Brashard Smith, but there is no chance Andy Reid trusts a 7th-rounder to protect Patrick Mahomes in his first NFL game. He might get a sprinkling of schemed up plays early in the year and I like his odds to see his role expand if he flashes and the team is not getting any playmaking out of their top two options.
My guess is that Elijah Mitchell is a game day inactive.
Chicago Bears
D’Andre Swift has run as pure as possible this off-season, making it to Week 1 with the Bears’ only meaningful addition to his position group being a Round 7 rookie.
Kyle Monangai just returned to practice this week after a multi-week absence, and Roschon Johnson has missed nearly a month now. The team reporters refuse to ask a single question about Johnson, his injury, or his projected role, and it’s not entirely clear whether he’s alive or dead.
Late last season, Swift played the vast majority of early-down snaps, but Johnson subbed in both in true LDD situations and in clear short-yardage packages. This left Swift with the potential to look like a borderline workhorse in some game flows, while seeing himself frustratingly vultured in others.
The last time Ben Johnson had D’Andre Swift in his backfield, he handed the vast majority of carries to Jamaal Williams — who was not efficient or impressive, but seems like an awesome dude to hang out with.
I suspect that Swift will see an incredibly strong role Week 1. Given he plays in prime time, I anticipate folks pointing out his elite usage and either celebrating him as one of the best picks of fantasy drafts or marking him as an elite “buy low” depending on whether his role translates to immediate production.
I want to get out ahead of that now and say that unless D’Andre Swift magically transforms into a running back with vision, desire to run down hill, and reliability in pass protection, I view him as too deficient to ever be more than a soft-lead back who is liable to losing HVTs at both ends.
That doesn’t mean he can’t have fantasy value — especially when the alternatives are both uninspiring and injured. Just don’t get carried away, because I think Swift’s deficiencies are so pronounced that he will always be more fragile than he appears.
Monangai is not an interesting prospect by my estimation but he was one of my favourite late clicks because I want to bet on Swift alternatives.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve made my stance known that I expect the Bucs’ backfield to look far closer to the late-season role distribution than mid-season. That means Bucky Irving receiving almost every carry despite a 60-65% snap share, and Rachaad White largely being contained to empty calorie pass protection snaps. Irving loses LDD snaps to White for pass protection reasons, but is an excellent receiver who will be schemed the ball through the air on early downs — similar to James Cook but to an even greater extent.
White is better with the ball in his hands than a Dare Ogunbawale or Samaje Perine type, and will likely see some more touches — particularly through the screen game or on angle routes. But I think the team knows what they have in Irving as a rusher and would be surprised if White sees enough carries to be managed-league viable.
I think Irving is currently under-projected across the industry, which seems to be making in more of the full-season sample than the late-season sample. For that reason I made Irving my gold star play for the Week 1 DFS slate.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard was one of the league’s more efficient rushers last year but was brutally inefficient in the receiving game. The team added Rico Dowdle, who is nothing special but is far better than any Hubbard alternative the team had last season. Then the Panthers drafted Trevor Etienne, who is not my favourite prospect, but was taken as a top-10 back in this class and is at his best in the passing game.
I expect Hubbard to be locked into an early-down only role, and is unlikely to add much receiving work in those snaps.
Rico Dowdle will open the year as the LDD option, and Trevor Etienne might mix in for a snap here or there. Over time, I think the rookie is liable to either displace Dowdle from his secondary role, or mix in for some early-down schemed touches as a change-of-pace option which could set up a dreaded #RBB3.
Hubbard is a fine RB2 play in Week 1 but has been a fade for me this season.
Seattle Seahawks
Of all the backfields in this category this might be the most controversial inclusion. Many folks are projecting a more even split in Seattle this year, but for now I’m white knuckling it with my gut take.
Over the last two seasons, Walker has dominated touches over Charbonnet every time the two backs share the field. When Walker misses, Charbonnet plays almost 100% of snaps, which makes him one of the most valuable contingent backs in the game.
Charbonnet is a better receiver and pass protector than Walker, and is also more durable, which makes him a better fit to be an all-out workhorse. Additionally, when Walker misses time the new backup is far worse than Charbonnet, thus the former-Bruin has a much easier path to an elite RB1 workload with Walker hurt than Walker has with Charbonnet active.
There is no debate that Charbs-sans-Walker is a better fantasy option than Walker-avec-Charbs, and arguably even better than Walker-sans-Charbs.
Because of all this, I think we overrate how good Charbonnet is in real life because he’s so valuable in fantasy whenever he is called upon. Every time he shines as a spot starter parts of the fantasy community expect him to retain a standalone role and at least until now that’s never materialized.
I’m projecting Walker to play between 65-70% of total snaps in neutral game script, and see an even higher percentage of the team’s running back touches — which would be in line with his typical share whenever he was healthy last season. I’ll acknowledge the relative uncertainty of that projection, and we will adjust fast if Charbonnet pushes this closer to 50/50.
I am not as confident about the industry projection models (which have a more even split) being wrong here as I am with Tampa Bay for instance. Walker is my DFS player pool but not a massive stand.
Arizona Cardinals
This is another backfield that some think will become a committee in 2025 and I’m not buying it. James Conner has improved in key advanced metrics each of the last two seasons, becoming one of the NFL’s best rushers into his 30s.
Trey Benson showed flashes of his elite athleticism, but also displayed inconsistent decision-making and a propensity to bounce too many runs outside.
The Cardinals have legitimate playoff aspirations this season — Jonathan Gannon’s third as head coach. They want to win games, and feeding Conner gives them the best chance to do it. Period.
I expect Benson to see a drive or so each half, but expect Conner to handle the rest of the touches. One thing to monitor is whether the team still relies on Emari Demercado as the pure LDD specialist. If so, this would limit the total ceiling on Trey Benson’s contingent value. I’m guessing they stay the course.
Conner will be one of the top DFS plays this week and I’m here for it.
Group 3: Fragile Starters
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren is fresh off a contract extension featuring $12M guaranteed, and I’m thrilled for him. Warren is of course an O.G. Hitchhiker’s Guide favourite, and I’m excited for him to have the opportunity to start in the NFL after three years stuck behind Najee Harris.
I do anticipate him to have the most touches and snaps by a wide margin in Week 1. What’s frustrating however is that in his lone pre-season game, the team subbed him off in LDD situations for Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell is a fine LDD option, but Warren is one of the best in the league at it, and the fact they are seemingly making him sacrifice this role in exchange for a chance to start is infuriating for fantasy managers. The hope for Warren was that since he already had the passing down snaps on lock, any increase in carries would unlock a massive ceiling.
I’m now skeptical that he is ever more than a mid-low end RB2 this season, and I still maintain that he most likely loses the majority of early-down work to Kaleb Johnson within the first half of the season. Ideally he can at least recoup the LDD work from Gainwell at that time and we aren’t dealing with a #RBB3 all year.
For Week 1 I predict Warren plays a James Cook-esque role with Gainwell playing pure LDD snaps, and Kaleb Johnson mixing in for a series or two each half and getting the ball at a high rate whenever he sees the field. Warren is a fine managed league RB2 but not a recommended DFS option even if he projects well at base due to the poor game environment.
New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is the incumbent starter and had the backfield to himself in pre-season while Round 4 rookie Cam Skattebo missed most of the off-season with a hamstring injury. He is now healthy, but likely missed too much time to make meaningful gains on Tracy before kick off.
I expect the former Boilermaker to retain the 60-70% snaps role he had late last season as an all situations lead back. Devin Singletary should be the primary breather back and Skattebo may mix in alongside him to get his feet wet.
Skattebo will need to displace Singletary before encroaching upon Tracy so you should have a couple weeks of cover at least if Tracy is your RB2. I still wager that Skattebo is the highest scoring member of the backfield in Weeks 10-17, and we’ll be tracking this team closely all year long in the Hitchhiker’s Guide.
Group 4: Projected Committees (?)
New York Jets
I think the pre-season usage told us all we need to know for Week 1 here. Breece Hall will play the most snaps, and the majority of early-downs. Braelon Allen will not be fair behind him however, and may edge him out for short-yardage work. Meanwhile, Isaiah Davis will play LDD snaps and the 2MD is to be determined (I’ll favour Hall here at the moment).
Hall should draw targets at one of the highest rates in the league among RBs when he’s on the field, but he can’t afford to lose many routes when the team projects to have among the fewest drop backs in the league. Splitting pass-game work with Isaiah Davis is a big deal if that comes to pass.
The bet on Breece Hall at this point is not about Week 1 usage. It’s about betting on a back who looked like the NFL’s best in 2022 and 2023 to displace backups who are long on pre-season hype but short on proven NFL effectiveness.
Hall projects as a low-end RB2 out of the gate, but one that has a ton of error bars in his projection. For the sake of my early off-season Best Ball bags, I hope we look back on the FUD surrounding him as a laughable fever dream by October.
New England Patriots
TreVeyon Henderson was listed as RB3 on the Patriots depth chart, but I think the pre-season usage was more indicative of his status. He’ll be the passing down back with a package of plays on early downs, while Rhamondre Stevenson is the primary rusher early on. I do not anticipate Antonio Gibson seeing much work.
I think the snaps will be roughly 50 (Stevenson), 40 (Henderson), 10 (Gibson), with room for Henderson to flip Stevenson in negative script. Henderson is startable as a low-end RB2 due to his big play upside and passing game role, and he should flip Stevenson as the primary ball carrier by mid-season.
I’m avoiding both backs in DFS with so many better options on the table.
Cleveland Browns
Let’s assume Quinshon Judkins does not play in this week’s game. I anticipate a roughly 50/50 committee, which is a point of disagreement with most industry projection models that favour Jerome Ford to be a clear lead.
Ford should be the slight favourite to play more LDD snaps and play more frequently in trail script based on his track record, but that’s not how the Browns rotated their backs in the pre-season. Sampson was the starter and remained on the field for the team’s first 3rd and long. I’m buying that Sampson has higher odds of being in a true 50/50 split or even being the lead back than most projections around the industry imply.
I think both backs are solid starts in Week 1 vs. the porous Bengals with Joe Flacco at the controls supercharging the team’s projected plays run. Because Sampson is cheaper ($4900 on draftkings) and in my opinion under-projected, I will be mixing him into my DFS builds.
Houston Texans
Yuck.
I’m not starting any Texans back if I can help it this week, but Nick Chubb would be the option if you must. I expect him to handle roughly 2/3rds of the early-down carries while Dameon Pierce takes on the rest.
Dare Ogunbawale should be the slight favourite to open the year as the LDD back, though Woody Marks projected well for this role as a prospect. Once he ices Ogunbawale as the passing down specialist we can talk about his odds of taking over as the lead back overall.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Bhayshul Tuten remains the most likely player to set off a whirlwind of week 1 victory laps if he’s announced as a healthy inactive. I’ve put the odds at roughly 40% before and I’ll stand by that. I think it’s slightly more likely they sit LeQuint Allen but it’s a borderline coin flip.
I’d of course rather Tuten be active, but I’m not sweating it much either way. I do not think he is going to see many touches this weekend. However, I’d prefer he be activated for the chance he can impress early in the season — even if it’s just on a handful of reps each week.
As I said the last time I wrote about this backfield, I cannot provide a precise path for how Tuten takes this backfield over, but his profile is equipped to benefit from any chaos that befalls this team or its running backs. However that path manifests, I still believe he’s the back you want here in the latter half of the season.
For now, Travis Etienne Jr. is the best week 1 start, as he projects to be the receiving side of a near 50-50 committee. Tank Bigsby managers will want to see him pull away from Etienne in carries, look more efficient on the ground, and be the dedicated back in goal-line usage.
Especially if Tuten is inactive, both backs are in play for DFS. There is a ton of uncertainty in how even the split will be, but a lot of available value between them in this matchup with a 25.25 team total. If you think either back has a chance to be a clear lead, slot them in your lineup and hope you’re correct.
Denver Broncos
I think JK Dobbins is going to have a larger edge in this backfield for Week 1 than conventional wisdom might suggest. The first pre-season game appeared bullish for Harvey on its face, but the more I thought about it the more plausible it seemed that the Broncos were merely saving Dobbins from unnecessary hits.
The veteran will play every 3rd down. The key questions are what the carry split is, whether there is a dedicated goal-line back and who it is, and who gets the 2MD.
I think by mid-season those answers are Harvey 60-40, no, and Harvey.
For week 1 I’ll go with Dobbins 65-35, no, and Harvey (but not sure about this).
Industry projections have this being a closer split between rookie and veteran than the Browns for instance and I would softly wager that’s incorrect.
The most important takeaway for Harvey is how he looks, and what kind of passing game usage Sean Payton schemes up for him in his opportunities.
Los Angeles Chargers
Najee Harris is set to play in Week 1 — and by some accounts set to start. However, Rich Eisen stated on his show that Jim Harbaugh told him directly that Hampton would be the first back on the field.
I don’t care who “starts” to be honest. In any case, I am predicting close to a 70-30 split in Hampton’s favour given Harris’s lack of practice time. If Hampton looks like the far more talented back, that gap will never close.
Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones should lead in fantasy points and snaps, but this may be close to 50/50 in touches. I suspect Jordan Mason will have a real role as the short-yardage back, and a near equal split of the carries. Jones will play in nearly all LDD situations and the 2MD.
The Vikings have previously used a drive-by-drive rotation so this would be a new approach for them, but I’m buying it based on the off-season discussion around their trade for Mason and these players relative skillsets.
Jones is a low-end RB2 while Mason is more of a flex.
Detroit Lions
It’s funny to be talking about my overall RB1 in the committee section but such is life for the Detroit Lions and their 30 XFP/g backfield.
Here’s one hot take: Jahmyr Gibbs takes the first snap for the first time in a regular season game that David Montgomery is active for. I think Gibbs then parlays this into a 60-65% neutral script snap share, signalling an increased role relative to the veteran from the past two years.
He’s my other gold star play in DFS this week.
Washington Commanders
This is the million dollar question isn’t it. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Bill) was listed as RB4 on the unofficial depth chart, but was spotted going 2nd in team drills.
Austin Ekeler’s role as the LDD, 2MC, and change-of-pace back is entrenched. After that anything is possible.
Jeremy McNichols is the 4th most likely back on this team to receive a given carry but he is a core special teamer who projects to be active on game days. Does that mean they activate all four backs? Or is one of Rodriguez or Bill scratched?
If either is scratched, the other becomes a very streamable RB2, and Ekeler gets a reasonable boost as well. If both are active, it’s probably best to stay away from either Rodriguez or Croskey-Merritt in DFS or managed leagues until we gather more information.
I’ll predict that all four backs are active Week 1, and the carries are split relatively evenly between Rodriguez, Bill, and Ekeler. Ekeler is the best start because of his pass-game role. I’ll further predict that Bill pushes Rodriguez out of the rotation entirely by Week 6, and it becomes a two-man backfield with him and Ekeler.
Dallas Cowboys
The rookie Jaydon Blue is off the injury report and ready to rock in prime time. The Cowboys seem set to start Javonte Williams, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere in a game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles where I expect Dallas to abandon the run almost immediately.
In his first NFL game I don’t think Blue plays a lot in comeback mode. Expect to see him mix in early in the game and receive a couple designed touches — either a screen, a choice route, or an outside carry. If Dallas stays in the game I wager he plays more than people might think — up to 30-35% of snaps and ahead of Miles Sanders.
If Dallas is blown out I project we see a lot of empty calorie pass protection reps from Javonte Williams (and Hunter Luepeke.
I was really impressed by Jaydon Blue last pre-season game and I think he leads the backfield in touches before the midway point of the season.
THE STREAMER STOCK WATCH
To count as a “streamer” for the purposes of this section, you must have been drafted outside the top-72 picks (FFPC ADP), and be a plausible fantasy option and/or RB1 on their team. The idea here is to give you start/sit advice in the near term for teams relying on these backs, along with a longer-view dynasty stance. Often once contingent plays start to rank at the top of the board, these backs are core decision-points in DFS lineups. The steamers are ranked in order of my preference in starting them in the coming week, both by tier and within each tier.
The categorizations listed below each player are taken from the format of my pre-season annotated RB tiers. Refer to the legend below for what each term mean: (or ask in the comments if you need more clarification)
TIER 1 — STREAMERS TURNED STARS
None yet.
TIER 2 — STARTERS
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Production Class: Starter
Contingent Class: N/A
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Mid-RB2
Matchup: Average
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Jaylen Warren
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: N/A
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Mid-RB2
Matchup: Poor
Dynasty Value: Late 2
TIER 3 — STREAMERS
Austin Ekeler
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Low-end RB2 / Flex
Matchup: Strong
Dynasty Value: Base 3
JK Dobbins
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Low-end RB2 / Flex
Matchup: Average
Dynasty Value: Early 3
Travis Etienne Jr.
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Low-end RB2 / Flex
Matchup: Elite
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Tank Bigsby
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Upside Flex
Matchup: Elite
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Dylan Sampson
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Upside Flex
Matchup: Elite
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Jerome Ford
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B (for now)
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Upside Flex
Matchup: Elite
Dynasty Value: 4th
Rhamondre Stevenson
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Flex
Matchup: Strong
Dynasty Value: Early 3
Jordan Mason
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Flex
Matchup: Average
Dynasty Value: Early 3
Nick Chubb
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: N/A
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Low-end Flex
Matchup: Poor
Dynasty Value: Late 3
Javonte Williams
Production Class: Streamer
Contingent Class: N/A
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Low-end Flex
Matchup: Poor
Dynasty Value: Late 3
TIER 4 — DESPARATION STREAMERS
Braelon Allen
Production Class: Low-end Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: TD-dependent Flex
Matchup: Poor
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Zach Charbonnet
Production Class: Low-end Streamer
Contingent Class: A
Asset Class: Upside
This week: Script-dependent Flex
Matchup: Average
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Production Class: Speculative Streamer (w/ role growth upside)
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: RB2 / Flex if Rodriguez scractched
Matchup: Strong
Dynasty Value: Base 2
Chris Rodriguez
Production Class: Speculative Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: RB2 / Flex if Crosekey-Merritt scractched
Matchup: Strong
Dynasty Value: 4th / Roster Spot
Rachaad White
Production Class: Speculative Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Bench
Matchup: Average
Dynasty Value: Base 3
Najee Harris
Production Class: Speculative Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: N/A
This week: Bench
Matchup: Poor
Dynasty Value: Base 3
Jaydon Blue
Production Class: Speculative Streamer (w/ role growth upside)
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Bench
Matchup: Awful
Dynasty Value: Late 2
Ollie Gordon
Production Class: Speculative Streamer
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Speculative
This week: Bench
Matchup: Strong
Dynasty Value: Early 3
Kaleb Johnson
Production Class: Speculative Streamer (w/ role growth upside)
Contingent Class: B
Asset Class: Core
This week: Bench
Matchup: Poor
Dynasty Value: Early 2
TIER 5 — Extreme Desperation Streamers
Tyler Allgeier, Will Shipley, Rico Dowdle, Ray Davis, Justice Hill, Trey Benson, Kareem Hunt, Kyle Monangai, Brian Robinson Jr., D.J. Giddens, Cam Skattebo, Keaton Mitchell, Miles Sanders, Blake Corum
ON BYE // ALREADY PLAYED // INJURED
None in Week 1.
What is your opinion on what the Rams should do?
Awesome piece. Any projection on the Brian Robinson / Isaac Guerendo split if CMC doesn't play?