Week 10 Hitchhiker's Guide

Hello folks,

I hope you’re all enjoying a lovely fall saturday!

If you didn’t catch it, my mid-week column for Week 9 was on the NFL trade deadline, with special focus on the Sauce Gardner trade and some universal commentary about when it does or does not make sense to go all in. This is of course rather applicable to dynasty strategy! I hope you enjoyed / enjoy it.

But now let’s move on to running back chatter.

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Running Back — Week 9

Metrics Legend:

From Pro Football Focus

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Snaps, Routes, and Carries data provided by Nathan Jahnke

From NFL NextGen Stats

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

From the FantasyPoints Data Suite

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

MTF/A = Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

TPRR: Targets per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

Other Terminology

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and carries inside the 10)

LDD: Long Down and Distance situations — 3rd and 5+

2MD: Two-Minute Drill

Movement and Injury in the Broncos Backfield

On Thursday Night we were all treated to one of the worst football games I’ve ever laid my eyes on. Shockingly, none of the running backs (or players) involved in this utter slop fest provided much in terms of fantasy value.

But J.K. Dobbins did suffer a potentially serious foot or ankle injury in the second-half of the game on a hip drop tackle. He played through the injury, but so have Bucky Irving and Brian Thomas (and several others)… that’s not necessarily indicative that he won’t miss time. Most concerning is that Dobbins is apparently seeking a second opinion on his injury, which you typcially don’t seek if the first opinion is what you want to hear.

Not that you need to do much about this before Week 10 ends, but if you have Harvey and/or Dobbins on your team I would operate under the asumption Dobbins misses multiple weeks with this injury and that I.R. is even a possibility.

In terms of what to expect from Harvey in that event, let’s first back up a touch. It seemed the Broncos had settled on a more consistent pattern of usage at the running back psoition in the last three weeks. Harvey siezed the lead in routes, with the vast majority of those coming on early downs, and including a high portion of schemed targets on swings, screens, and even downfield wheel routes. With the team finding success featuring Harvey in this gadget (Joker?) role, Dobbins saw his route volume massively decreased but was being fed nearly every carry. Meanwhile, Tyler Badie is still playing in LDD situations for reasons I can’t comprehend.

This has made Harvey’s production quite volatile, from a 3-TD game in Week 8 to a complete bust in Week 10, and a productive Week 9 that was saved on a late wheel-route TD.Harvey is not playing frequently and he’s not touching the ball that often. But the touches they design for him have a very high fantasy point expectation so if they hit in a given week you can get there. If they don’t... the floor is nearly zero.

That floor is about to increase dramatically if Dobbins misses time. The only other running backs on the active roster are Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin. The only back on their practice squad is Deuce Vaughn. Sean Payton truly never stops doing hillarious bits.

Harvey’s limited usage as a runner so far this season is partly about his inconsistency. When he’s had opportunities this year he’s interspersed some remarkably impressive athletic plays with some rough reads that have failed to get what’s blocked. But it’s probably said more about how effective Dobbins has been for them. With Dobbins out of the mix they have little choice but to lean on Harvey as their primary rushing threat and live with some inconsistency because there is no other reasonable option (I’d suspect McLaughlin to mix in a little).

If Harvey can even add 10-12 carries per game plus goal-line work on top of the creative pass game usage he already has, he will have a lot of fantasy value. In the ceiling outcomes where he can handle 15-18 carries, he will be an RB1 for however long Dobbins misses.

An Unexpected Split for the G-Men

In the first game without Cam Skattebo, the fantasy industry largely expected Tyrone Tracy Jr. to dominate touches — myself included. It would have been hard to project a different outcome given that this is the same backfield pairing and coaching staff the team had last year and the split heavily favoured Tracy. Tracy also played well ahead of Singletary this season before suffering an injury in Week 3 and watching Cam Skattebo sieze the reigns of the backfield.

But Singletary mixed in on the first drive and the two continued to rotate in all situations. Both played 3rd downs, both played short yardage (though Singletary was on the field in the green zone), and both played on any extended drive the team had. In fact, it was Singletary who actually wound up with seven more total snaps. The veteran also ran more effectively, though neither got enough carries to establish any kind of rhythm.

Unless we see a different rotation this week, we should project this a 50/50 backfield with little if any preference on whom to start between them.