Week 12 Hitchhiker's Guide to RB

Raiders of the Lost Season

We’re back with the Week 12 HHG. This is now a one-stop shop for the RB content on this stack. The early-week column this week covered playoff best ball contests — something that’s going to be a major focus for this site in the coming weeks. I encourage you to check that out!

Now let’s roll.

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STATISTICAL NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

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SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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WEEK 11 RB STORYLINES

Denver Broncos

There wasn’t much to note in the Week 11 RB landscape. The largest ‘shift’ was the continued confusion that is the Denver Broncos offense.

There’s no doubt Sean Payton’s attack has surpassed expectations in the last six weeks, but it’s been a struggle to gauge for fantasy given how many different personnel groupings are deployed, and how inconsistent the usage is week to week.

The RB room was mostly an exception from this over the first half of the season. Javonte Williams was locked in to 35-40 snaps each week comprised of a slight majority of early downs and nearly all passing downs. Jaleel McLaughlin handled most of the rest and on occasion a third guy would mix in.

That shifted in a big way in Week 10 when Audric Estime led the way in snaps and saw a vast majority of carries. Correspondingly, we discussed that in this column and my expectation was that Estime would have a Tank Bigsby-esque role while McLaughlin continued to be minimized and Williams would serve in a passing-down oriented capacity with maybe a couple carries.

That did not hold up, as Williams was re-installed as the lead back. However, I wouldn’t say all was back to normal either. Williams’ snap count this week was the 2nd lowest of the year, and he handled 14 of 30 total touches, compared to 9 for Estime, 4 for McLaughlin, and 3 for full back Michael Burton who appeared to play as the sole back for a couple of 3rd downs.

They’ve definitely shifted towards a committee approach, and Williams will continue to play the majority of passing downs. But Estime’s role is larger than McLaughlin’s has been most of the season, and McLaughlin hasn’t been phased out entirely either.

To me this was a case of Williams getting the nominal start, having some success, and then seeing more run. I suspect that in future weeks will see a game or two in which Williams can’t get going early and Estime winds up leading in touches.

I’m shifting back to Williams as the preferred start, but both should be ranked similarly as volatile streamer.

Washignton Commanders

We saw an uptick in 2-RB set usage this week which is an upgrade for both backs if that holds. It was the first time in weeks that both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler have been fully healthy so I buy the intention here.

I noted on twitter that they lined up in 21 personnel 7 of the first 8 snaps of the game, and PFF’s Nathan Jahnke had them at a 38% rate of 21 personnel in the first half, compared to a 13% season average.

They got away from it in the second half which I think can largely be attributed to game script.

This set up allowed Robinson to see his typical role as the clear lead rusher, and he paid it off with an impressive TD run. Meanwhile, Ekeler actually outscored him in PRR leagues racking up 9 targets.

This week was extreme, with the Commanders having virtually zero success in the downfield passing game. But the proportion of this offense running through the two RBs would make both solid RB2s if it holds. I’m betting on it to continue at least directionally speaking.

Las Vegas Raiders

Fantasy Football’s most depressing backfield got more depressing this week. Zamir White got most of the early run under a new offensive coordinator, but he sucked. Then they tried their hand with Alexander Mattison who — as has been the case most of the year — sucked a little bit less.

Both RBs got hurt however, and now we’re looking at a Dylan Laube — Ameer Abdullah split backfield against the Broncos in Week 12.

It goes without saying that you’d prefer to look elsewhere, but given the amount of byes this week I suspect some of you won’t have a choice in deep leagues.

Laube has had no role this whole year, while Abdullah has largely been relegated to passing downs only. If you recall from draft season, Laube is an undersized, not particularly athletic RB who played at New Hampshire. His calling card was receiving ability and a history of holding up to volume — like the poorest possible man’s Rachaad White.

The fact he hasn’t already usurped Abdullah — or even given White or Mattison any challenge for early-down touches is concerning to say the least given how little success the team has had on the ground this season. Add to that the fact his archetype is much more similar to Abdullah’s than complementary. (I spelled it right this time haters!)

We can pencil in Abdullah for LDD work and comeback mode given he’s been doing that ahead of Laube all year. Whether we are staring down a split, or a clear-cut Abdullah lead situation comes down to whether the Raiders have any interest in seeing what Laube can do. So far he’s played only a couple snaps, and included within them a brutally blown blitz pickup and a fumble. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Ameer Abdullah posts the world’s least efficient 84% snap share this Sunday, or if you learn a new name who plays as much as Laube. (Sincere McCormick and Chris Collier are on the practice squad)

As you’ll see in the streamer stock watch below, Abdullah is my preferred play because he has two outs: (1) he’s simply the guy (2) they get the doors blown off and he plays all the passing snaps in the second half anyhow.

There are definitely worse plays than Rock Laubster this week just based on the uncertainly of his role. His 20th percentile outcome is probably equal to most of the names on the desperation streamer list and below. But there’s at least some chance he gets run early, finds some success, and he winds up solidly leading the backfield this week. If he does, his pass-catching acumen should come in handy for fantasy. But I would rate both the odds of that ceiling case and his odds of hitting a startable floor lower than Abdullah’s.