Week 12 Sunday Drive

Kyren Williams' Grand Return

Welcome back to the Sunday Drive! I have a busy content week for you so no major intro here, just going to get into the games.

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NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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1. INJURIES AND FALL OUT

Rams

The Rams welcomed Kyren Williams back into their backfield and it was the clear story of the week. He put up one of the highest scoring RB performances of the year and over 200 total yards. There appears to be no question that at least for the remaining of this year he’s their featured back.

I’ve not been very complimentary of Williams from a real-life perspective but I’ve also discussed a couple times that this makes sense for them in the short-term. Williams is extremely adept in all phases of the passing game and it gives them a legitimate third weapon while consolidating their pass protection unit. Most importantly, it allows them to play freely and quickly without tipping plays by personnel package. The Rams have no option of a more explosive runner than Williams so this works for them. To illustrate the effect their personnel stability has, Williams has faced zero - that’s right, ZERO - stacked boxes this year. While I’d argue (and have) that this is useful context with which to consider his rushing efficiency, it’s also a credit to his passing down ability that teams defend them this way when he’s on the field.

As for this week’s performance, I have watched the game in full both as it happened and a condensed package of each Kyren touch. I’m sorry if my view on him as a runner is mostly unchanged.

this is just one play, but here is the type of defensive performance we got from the Cardinals this week… Williams merely had to choose which hole he wanted to hit a 30 yard gain from.

His very next run however (they were his two longest on the day) was by far his most impressive. This inside-zone play is reasonably well-blocked but only to get you to the second level. What I see here is a chance to cut it inside right away and dart through the hole between 73 and the Center then fire out to the left. But Williams makes a more interesting choice…

Williams is virtually invisible here, but he’s tucked behind his lineman. Number 73 loses his block here and rather than run into a tackle, Williams hugs the edge of his tackle and finds a new crease ….

Patience pays off. He’s now in the open field on effectively his third cut. This is all on him weaving through space in a phone booth and speaks to his mental abilities as a rusher.

Over the rest of the game I thought we still saw the lack of high-end explosiveness show up when getting well-blocked toss plays to the edge and struggling to create massive gains. But he does everything that’s necessary of him in this offense and adds some value with high-IQ runs like this.

I still would not pay a 1st-round pick myself for his services since I struggle to bet on a profile like this long term given draft capital, size, athleticism etc. You’re opening yourself up to this role going away at any point. But there’s no guarantee that it does and certainly he’s in line for a great fantasy playoffs, so only sell if offered a 1st or more.