Week 2 HHG: The Sunday Drive

The Samaje Pe-Line's Grand Return to Center Stage

No big introduction today because there is a lot to cover, and I released what would have been my intro yesterday. That was the last of four totally free posts to help everyone get a feel for what the in-season content looks like, ranging from the micro to the macro, and some stuff in there for all formats of fantasy.

You can check that one out here:

If you’ve enjoyed the free content and aren’t currently subscribed — I’d love to have you around, even on a free trial. We have a lot of good stuff cooking every week for dynasty and seasonal leagues.

Now for anyone who is new to the in-season rhythm of the Hitchhiker’s Guide here’s what you can expect:

TUESDAY MORNING — The Sunday Drive

1. Intro on any thematic topic (ran as separate piece yesterday)

2. Analyzing the fantasy impact of injuries across NFL backfields

3. Analyzing major shifts in utilization in backfields

4. Waiver wire power priorities

FRIDAY / SATURDAY MORNING — The Streamer Stock Watch

1. A ranking of all ‘streamer’ candidates for the week with notes on matchup, role, and dynasty outlook

2. SOMETIMES: film and metrics based spotlights on key players

I’ll also be updating the Dynasty Rankings tonight!

And once again I need to note: the FantasyPoints Data Suite is where I get the bulk of my info for this column. If you want access to the single best database of key metrics for every fantasy format, use JAKOB25 at checkout for 25% off, and join the data suite!

Now let’s get into the Week 2 Sunday Drive!

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NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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1. INJURIES AND FALL OUT

Miami Dolphins

We saw this backfield operate without Raheem Mostert, and despite a questionable tag coming into the day, De’Von Achane completely dominated touches to the tune of 36 (!!!) adjusted opportunities [Carries + 2X targets].

He found the end-zone on a schemed up swing screen, and led the team in receiving with a 7-7-69-1 line, including a leaping grab downfield for some RB air yards. With Christian McCaffrey out for the foreseeable future, Achane clearly has the league’s most valuable RB receiving role, when you consider not just the volume of targets, but where he’s getting them from both an alignment and a route tree perspective. He’s opened the first two weeks at a .39 TPRR, and 4.03 YPRR, which is obviously unsustainable because those are Tyreek Hill tier numbers, but it shows how much of a priority he is, and even was when Mostert was active.

The fact they expanded his role rather than just allocating the excess to Jeff Wilson or Jaylen Wright as we expected they might pre-season, shows that Achane is really in a different range of outcomes than he was last year. He hasn’t even had an efficient rushing day yet and he’s in the running for RB1 overall. Mostert is tentatively expected back next week, and it’s definitely a downgrade since they’ll split carries and goal-line reps, but Achane’s receiving role is his alone, so it’s not more than a minor knock. Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall — his primary competition for the RB1 spot right now — are also losing 10+ touches to their backfield mates.

But now it’s time for the other injury shoe to drop…

Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion as everyone reading this surely knows, which is first and foremost a terrifying and sad real life event. The time table on this could seemingly be anything from a couple weeks to the whole season, so we’ll just have to be patient and hope for the best for Tua and his family. That being said, it’s now Skylar Thompson for the immediate future, and it could wind up being Tyler “Snoop” Huntley at some point after he was just signed. If the team gets particularly bad news on Tagovailoa, perhaps they bring in a more notable QB option.

As it stands, any of these options is a downgrade. As we talked about yesterday, Tua Tagovailoa is one of the better QBs we have for fantasy skill players, as an accurate pocket passer who is excellent at avoiding sacks. He’s one of the best ‘point guard’ archetypes in the league. To the extent they protect his limitations in the context of the offfense, that usually benefits Achane — who gets a lot of schemed short area targets, and benefits from the team’s high goal-line rush rate.

McDaniel is a great coach and I think he’ll get more out of bad QBs than most, but even as a Tua ‘slanderer’ at times, I acknowledge the drop off after him will be steep. At least with Skylar Thompson we’re getting a pure pocket QB who is likely to check the ball down. And so much of Achane’s usage is schemed up that he’s far less hurt by the QB-downgrade than Hill and Jaylen Waddle who rely more on Tua’s accuracy on deep and intermediate throws. However, the TD expectation for the team will plummet. Huntley would be a potential disaster, as he’s not an efficient QB, but will also take off and run more often, hurting Achane’s check down role.

He’s likely a mid-RB1 going forward no matter what, but he needs Tua to return to push for RB1 overall.

Backfield Status: Achane top-three RB1 ; Mostert flex upon return ; Jaylen Wright Stash

Kanasas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco is the big RB injury this week — suffering a fracture fibula that will reportedly keep him out 6-8 weeks. This means we can potentially stream the Chiefs RB1 for past the halfway point of the fantasy regular season, if only we can figure out how to play it.

Here’s the current set up: Kansas City has Samaje Perine and Carson Steele on the active roster, plus former-HHG favourite Keaontay Ingram and TCU-UDFA Emani Bailey on the practice squad. Then there’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is eligible to return from I.R. in Week 5, but it’s unclear whether or not he’ll be able to. And lastly, former Chiefs star Kareem Hunt is coming in for a visit on Tuesday.

Here’s how I’d handicap the situation. Samaje Perine was the guy they added to this backfield the day after he was released by Denver, when they could have added Hunt at any time all summer. Clearly they view Perine has a part of their offense, at the very least on passing downs, where he’s already been sprinkled in depsite being with the team for just about three weeks.

Carson Steele was a UDFA with a lot of collegiate production, but not much else impressive, given his brutal tested athleticism and bulky frame. They list him at full back, but have given him carries in each game, especially near the goal-line. (He had 7 carries to Perine’s 0 in Week 2)

It’s not assured Kareem Hunt even signs here, but he probably will, or else some other similar caliber Free Agent veteran will, as they truly need a body. But I view him as more likely to be a depth add. He was near the very bottom of the league in every advanced statistic last year, and I think he’s just as washed as Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook — maybe more.

The rest are total dart tosses.

How to handle this really varies by league-size so I want to try to be as expansive as possible:

In a deep dynasty league it’s unlikely either of these guys are on waivers, but if they are, Steele is the upside play and deserves an aggressive bid. I struggle to quantify things in FAAB % because you know your league environment better than I do, and what you should spend. But my point is that I’d bid to win here, because it’s very rare we ever get a shot of a rookie starter on dynasty waivers.

For Perine, the dynasty appeal is limited and you’re only adding him if you badly need RB help (and he’s likely already rostered)

In the FFPC stuff I play, Perine is on the waivers nowhere. Steele is occasionally but it’s not common. I will be bidding anywhere from 10-50% of my FAAB on him depending on how low my replacement level is at RB. It’s a 12-week regular season so if you are the Pacheco (or CMC, or Mixon) manager — or just a Zero-RB manager who doesn’t have a JK Dobbins or Jordan Mason, any shot at a viable role on a good offense is going in your lineup immediately, and it might be worth nearly all your FAAB to help get wins the next couple weeks, and there is upside here.

If Perine is available in any deeper leagues — say leagues where guys like Tyler Allgeier, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, etc. (all clear-cut RB2s in good spots) are rostered — then I think he’s the guy you prioritize and prioritize heavily. If you’re in a very shallow league, I get the temptation of waiting it out hoping to hit on a more clear-cut smash, but if you do need the RB points now I’d still be aggressive here — more so than most of the sentiment I’ve seen from twitter would recommend.

Here’s my case:

The ‘Samaje Pe-Line’ hasn’t rushed for 400+ yards since he was a rookie. But he’s carved out a passing downs skillset, and has two straight 50+ target seasons. We saw him put up a 3-week stretch in 2022 of 23 PPG, which is in his wheelhouse because he’s the archetype of RB who can rack up a ton of HVTs as a big-bodied receiver: it’s a bit like what we saw from Zach Charbonnet this past week, where despite not adding much efficiency on the ground, his combination of size and pass-catching meant he wound up in a more fantasy friendly role than we even see from Ken Walker. Or you could just look at Rachaad White’s career.

The Chiefs have had their most fantasy value for RBs when this archetype of back is being featured. Think Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, Jerick McKinnon. Over sustained stretches of time, each of these backs had more fantasy appeal on a weekly basis than frankly Isiah Pacheco ever has. Clearly they’re not better than Pacheco, but they’re better recievers with adequate size and reliability in all areas of the field, and when this type of back is featured, Andy Reid tends to dial it up on the PROE, using these backs as an extension of the run game — which is far more fantasy friendly than handing the ball off.

The Chiefs seem surprisingly committed to developing Carson Steele so far, so I do expect more of a split now than I would have if someone told me this would happen two weeks ago. In particular, Steele appears to be in their plans on goal-line rushes. But Perine has outs here to massive value.

He could just be in the high-value touch half of a split a la Jerick McKinnon in the back half of Pacheco’s rookie season. The Chiefs would use McKinnon at the goal-line as well, not as much for rushing but in a receiving role, which Perine could have access to. Or he could just out-play Steele, who isn’t overly impressive in my estimation and lost a fumble last week, and wind up consolidating the majority of work in all phases.

I personally think people are taking far too narrow a view in projecting this backfield out based on what the offense looked like with Pacheco at tailback instead of a more receiving focused feature back, and then zooming in on the most recent sample of games between a UDFA and a player who was signed 3 weeks ago, when the reality is that things are probably quite fluid. If you try to take the longer view of the Chiefs backfield under Andy Reid, it’s hard not to get excited about plausible RB1 upside here.

Backfield Status: Pacheco high-end RB2 upon return, half-tier move down in dynasty ; Perine priority FAAB add > Steele, but all of Perine, Steele and Hunt worth adds in deep leagues