Week 5 Streamer Stock Watch

Rolling out a new format, and diving in to the best streamer week of the year

Hey folks,

Just as we do every Friday Night / Saturday morning we’re going to run through the ‘Streamer Stock Watch’ here at the bottom of the page — ranking every plausible starting back with a post-100 ADP for this Sunday, plus notes on their dynasty value and match up.

If you want further detail on where to evaluate RBs this week and going forward, check out this week’s Sunday Drive:

---

No intro segment for this column today, but I am going to have a little extra detail in the stock watch since we have some new streamers in the mix, and I’m debuting a new tier-based layout.

---

STATISTICAL NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

USE CODE JAKOB25 for 25% a FantasyPoints Data Suite subscription

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

---

THE STREAMER STOCK WATCH

To count as a “streamer” for the purposes of this section, you must have been drafted outside the top-100 picks (underdog ADP), and be a plausible fantasy starter and/or RB1 on their team. The idea here is to give you start/sit advice in the near term for teams relying on these backs, along with a longer-view dynasty stance. The backs are ranked in order of my preference in starting them in the coming week.

The categorizations are taken from my those I used for my pre-season annotated RB tiers. Refer to the legend below for what each mean: (or ask in the comments if you need more clarification)

Tiers ranked in order.

TIER 1 — STREAMERS TURNED STARS

Jordan Mason

• Production Class: Star

• Contingent Class: A [in effect]

• Asset Class: Speculative

• This Week: High-End RB1

• Matchup: Elite

• Dynasty Value: “Early” 2

There’s not much to say about Mason’s weekly value. He gets a ton of carries, he doesn’t get many receptions, he’s going to project for high-end efficiency and TD-equity. He oscillates from a top-three start to a mid-range RB1 start depending on matchup. So let’s talk a little more generally:

Every week I grow more and more impressed by Mason. I started out skeptical that he’d provide a lot of inherent ‘IRL’ value, but was intrigued that he’d get a chance to operate in a great offense for fantasy purposes, making him a clear handcuff. Then I saw how great he looked from Week 1, and really elevated my perception of his contingent upside, but saw him more as a fortunate fit for Shanahan’s RB scheme than as a standalone great back.

To an extent that’s probably still true. This is a 4.63-running UDFA with zero college production of note after all. However, as the games pile up, and he keeps performing even in tough matchups or on an offense missing key players, it’s unfair to give the bulk of the credit for his success to anyone but Mason himself.

I’ve tried to watch more of him of late as I tried to figure out just how high to go on his Dynasty Value, and wound up moving him up a tier this week. His metrics profile is strong (8th in RYOE/att, 11th in YAC/att and 14th in MTF/att) but his film his excellent in my opinion. Not only is he an astute decision-maker as a zone-runner, but his contact balance and power stands out.

To the extent you give credit to Shanahan and his staff, its his proven ability over time to find unheralded backs who have traits that apply to his system, and then develop them into players like this. I’m starting to get bullish that Mason is a factor in our fantasy lives beyond 2024.

TIER 2 — STREAMERS TURNED STARTERS

Chuba Hubbard

• Production Class: Starter

• Contingent Class: N/A

• Asset Class: N/A

• This Week: Mid-range RB2

• Matchup: Poor

• Dynasty Value: Late 2

Speaking of impressive, Chuba Hubbard has been right there with Diontae Johnson as Panthers most positively affected by the Andy Dalton experience.

His actual usage has been consistent all-season. He plays roughly 70% of snaps, and leads in all situations. When the offense is good, this role isn’t far off what Aaron Jones sees in Minnesota. But early in the season, the results were tough to come by.

I think we largely know what Hubbard is at this point: he’s a tall slender rusher who lacks the power and change of direction to be a truly elite rusher, but he knows how to execute the play, and when it’s well blocked he’s going to get you a big chunk. He’s also developed a lot as a pass catcher while in the league to the point I’d now consider it a strength compared to where he was as a prospect.

He’s the kind of guy who somehwere along the line the league decided was a ‘back up,’ but he’s pretty easily a top-32 talent at the posititon. I hope he gets a 2-year, $12M type deal next season to lead a backfield.

In the meantime, he’s facing a stiffer test vs. the Bears this week than his last two outings, but he’s a volume-based start every week with reasonable talent upside.

Jerome Ford

• Production Class: High-end Streamer

• Contingent Class: N/A

• Asset Class: Speculative

• This Week: Mid-Range RB2

• Matchup: Elite

• Dynasty Value: Early 3

We finally have two consecutive weeks of workhorse Ford, just in time for Nick Chubb’s iminent return. For now, I’m writing under the expectation Chubb is not activated this week, and if he is I can’t imagine more than 10-20 snaps.

So for at least one more week, we’re on the Ford train, and I think you can trust now that Week 2 was more of an aberation than the norm. Ford actually pops in some advanced metrics (9th in RYOE/att and YAC/att) and I think he’s come into his own more this year. I’ve always thought his tape was better than his metrics and I think with some more seasoning we’ll at least get a Chuba Hubbard quality rusher here, with clear pass-game chops.

The matchup here is excellent in a double-pace up game vs. a terrible rushing defense. Ford is a strong DFS play and a good RB2 start.

Brian Robinson Jr. (if active)

• Production Class: Starter

• Contingent Class: B [in effect]

• Asset Class: N/A

• This Week: Low-End RB2

• Matchup: Poor

• Dynasty Value: Base 2

Brian Robinson has been a lovely hit so far this year, but is a little lower on the list than usual this week. He’s nursing a knee-injury and is supposedly a game-time-decision. However, I just watched him do an interview on NFL Network hypothesizing over his matchup with Myles Garrett so I’m putting him on the right side of the Q-Tag.

He’s the most consistent beneficiary of Jayden Daniels’ elite play, as it’s opened up rushing lanes, and given him frequent trips to the red zone. Also: he’s pretty good at football! (0.93 RYOE/att)

I’m breaking ties away from him due to Austin Ekeler’s return and his own injury, but I suspect if he’s active the goal-line role remains his.

** TIER 2B — CONTINGENT STARTERS **

Austin Ekeler

• Production Class: Streamer

• Contingent Class: A

• Asset Class: N/A

• This Week: Flex if Brian Robinson starts, Fringe-RB1 if not

• Matchup: Poor

• Dynasty Value: Early 3

As mentioned, Austin Ekeler may be without Brian Robinson this week. If not, he’ll be in his typical LDD+ role, where he’s a decent bet for 4+ catches, with an outside chance of adding a TD.

He’s showed more juice than I thought he had left this year and Daniels’ rising tide is lifitng all boats. Just like I said with Robinson last week, if he’s out McNichols will play some, but Ekeler should dominate touches. It’s possible his role without Robinson is better than Robinson’s without Ekeler since Ekeler can theoretically be the best option both at the goal-line and on LDD snaps.

I don’t really know where to place Ekeler the way I do these tiers so to be clear:

• No Robinson, Ekeler = 2nd on this list behind only Mason in Tier 1

• Yes Robinson, Ekeler = between Mattison and Gibson in Tier 3

TIER 3 — STREAMERS