Week 6 Sunday Drive

In which we make a lot of not-so-educated guesses on some clusterf*** backfields

Ok folks, planning another strategy column and a rankings update this week so no fancy intro today. Let’s just get right into it.

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NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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1. INJURIES AND FALL OUT

Javonte Williams returned from a hip injury and had his most efficient outing of the year. This is probably bad news overall for fantasy however, because Jaleel McLaughlin remained impressive and involved, leading both backs to cannabalize early down work while Samaje Perine was reduced to an LDD-only role.

We have ourselves a dreaded three-way RBBC and frankly it may remain that way. Perine is good at the LDD stuff and from a tactical perspective playing him exclusively on 3rd and longs + two-minute drill situations doesn’t hurt you since everyone already knows exactly what you’re doing in those plays. The unheralded advantage of situation-neutral RB rooms is the opportunity to keep the same personnel from 3rd and long into a 1st and 10 so that you can quick snap the ball, without substituting and catch the defense with an undersized group un-prepared for the run. That’s not really in the cards with Sean Payton who plays radically different personnel packaged from early downs to passing downs at every position group.

We’ve seen the Payton Saints run three-back committees before with some element of fantasy appeal, but those offenses were both effective and HVT gold mines. When this offense gets moving the RBs are a major part of it, but they just aren’t efficient enough to generate enough plays or TD opportunities for more than one guy to ever hit in a given game, let alone you being able to guess who. I like both McLaughlin and Williams at cost as dynasty stashes, and McLaughlin much more at cost. But barring an injury or role-shift this is a backfield to cross off the list.

With no Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson it was D’Onta Foreman’s chance to step up. He did not. I’ll fully admit I thought he was a solid start this week. Honestly the role was fine with 15 carries and 1 target, along with 40 of 66 snaps. While Darrynton Evans mixed in more than I expected, Foreman’s main issue was just a lack of efficiency and a failure to find the end zone. Similar to a Gus Edwards type in that he offers virtually nothing in the receiving game, he can either make you feel very dumb for fading him or very dumb for playing him in any week he’s a streaming option since his skillset is so limited and dependent on game script and TD luck. Luckily for streamers, Johnson should be back next week from his concussion and will bring a more well-rounded skillset to the lead back chair. The Bears seem philosophically committed to a roughly 65-70% v. 30-35% snap split at the position over the last two years so expect to see Johnson in line for the 2:1 ratio in snaps with (probably?) Foreman getting the remainder. He projects to be a mid-range RB2.

Emari Demercado SZN was short-lived. I got this one about 70% correct with Keaontay Ingram playing the lead of a 2:1 split on early downs, and Demercado monopolizing the passing downs. The aspect I did not anticipate was one-million year old Damien Williams inexplicably mixing in. A lot of times these backfields resolve in unpredictable fashion and that’s not to say there’s anything specific you should see coming, just that unpredictable things on the whole are somewhat predictable. Demercado wound up with the most snaps and the fewest touches based on his pass-down role in negative game script. If you think the Cardinals can play a full-game in neutral or positive script, Ingram seems to be your best bet to start. But I’m not sure when you would count on the Cardinals to do that.

He’s a borderline flex play vs. Seattle while no other member of this committee is fantasy-viable at the moment. For what it’s worth, I was mildly impressed by the taste of Ingram we got this week. Everyone knows I’m a card carrying truther but I thought he was rugged with the ball in his hands and smooth on his catches. RYOE was not impressed, as his -1.41 RYOE/A (on four yards per carry!!) ranked ahead of only D’Andre Swift this week. I wouldn’t blame you for trusting the stats here over my Keaontay-coloured eyes and I haven’t gotten the chance to watch back his snaps since seeing them live.

With no De’Von Achane for four weeks, Raheem Mostert stepped back into the role he held for the first two weeks of the season, holding a 2:1 snaps advantage over Salvon Ahmed. This was fairly projectable since we’ve already seen this exact backfield construction before. What is less predictable is what Miami does upon Jeff Wilson Jr.’s return, which could come as early as this week. You may recall that I was rather optimistic on Wilson, more so than Mostert during the off-season. There’s just no tenable way to hold that opinion having watched Mostert play so exceptionally this season while Wilson’s been out with an injury, but I do expect him to be involved. Mike McDaniel stated that he’d start on a 25-snap rep count, which I noted as encouraging. That would be roughly a 40% snap share in most games which is higher than we have typically seen from Ahmed. The notion that’s a cap, presumably with room to grow as the season goes along, is highly encouraging for him, and less encouraging for Mostert.

My rough projection is we see largely the same split as this week in Week 7 with Wilson filling the Ahmed role, and then closer to a 55-45 for the final two weeks of Achane’s absence depending on how Wilson ingratiates himself into the offense. The difference in how many clean runs they have this year compared to last year is substantial, so I’m not sure how much Wilson’s more grinding skillset adds compared to the raw speed of their other backs. If I were them I may just prefer to let it fly with Mostert, Ahmed, and (eventually) Achane. Mostert remains a back-end RB1 for now and Wilson is a stash.

The Carolina Panthers shut Miles Sanders down this week after picking up another of several minor-injuries. Perhaps with the bye week upcoming he can finally get back to full health. Chuba Hubbard brought some life to a dormant running game offering 88 yards on 19 carries and 0.82 RYOE/A with over 50% of his rushes generating yards above expectation. I am not going to say that’s necessarily indicative of Hubbard’s talent, who has been volatile throughout his career. But Miles Sanders has been inefficient and injured this season, while Hubbard turned in the most effective rushing performance of a Panthers back this year. I wouldn’t be shocked if the team rode the inertia and displayed a more legitimate split on early downs if Sanders is healthy post-bye. I would try to avoid both backs in my lineups if Sanders is active and wait and see what the usage is. If Sanders is out, fire up Hubbard as a mid-RB2 once again.

That does it for injuries we already knew about. But we had some new ones this week unfortunately.

The 49ers lost superstar Christian McCaffrey to an oblique injury which could reportedly sideline him anywhere from zero-two weeks. If you told me this in August I would have ben thrilled at the chance to fire up Elijah Mitchells everywhere. Since then, Mitchell suffered yet another knee injury and just returned this week. He was the first back to mix in while McCaffrey was healthy but Jordan Mason played the majority of snaps late in the game. My read from this is that Mitchell remains the preferred rusher; we’ve seen him mix in for McCaffrey in neutral script in a way Mason hasn’t both early this year and last year. But Mason — who played most of his snaps as the 49ers attempted a late comeback on the Browns — is the preferred option in passing scenarios. They’ve never used Mitchell there, even preferring Kyle Juszczyk on LDD snaps in 2021.

I expect some form of hot hand which puts us in a tough position. You can take a flier on either, but both have a very low floor, albeit a major ceiling if one guy fully takes the reigns. Unfortunately, by the time we learn which back you want, McCaffrey may be back already. For now, both are flexes but keep your ear to the ground throughout the week if there are any solid reports on who would get the first crack.

David Montgomery followed in De’Von Achane’s footsteps as a league-winning late RB pick who found his way to your injured reserve slot. He’s expected to miss “a bit” of time due to a rib injury. We saw this backfield without him in Week 3 but that was with a healthy Jahmyr Gibbs. If Gibbs practices in full, consider him a low-end RB1 with a similar role to Week 3’s when he was used primarily on early downs, but will always have a shot to attract a high targets per route. If he’s limited throughout the week, he may play closer to his usual role making him a mid-low RB2 while Craig Reynolds slots in as an RB2/Flex. If he’s out, Reynolds projects as a fragile, but plausibly high-end RB2. This would be a prime situation where either Reynolds plays 100-percent of snaps and is a must have, or some random back you’ve never heard of winds up in a 50-50 timeshare.

Speaking of injuries to league winners, Kyren Williams had his best game running the ball in his career, before leaving with an ankle issue. I’ve bagged on his efficiency in the past so it’s only fair to state that he was 3rd in the NFL this week in RYOE/Att and 2nd in PFF grade. This resuscitates his RYOE/A to -0.12 on the season, which is still squarely n the bottom half but is no longer outlier bad. My long view on him still remains largely unchanged, as does his projection as a possible RB1 for as long as this role sticks.

Williams is expected to miss one week, while backup Ronnie Rivers is set to miss over a month with a PCL-injury. if there is ever a shot for HHG-favourite Zach Evans to make some noise the time is now. He was finally activated this week which tells me he must have done something to earn a look in practice. He had just four carries in obvious running situations this week, so there’s not much to gleaned here. You’re only playing Evans if you’re completely desperate or if there is confident reporting on his role. I expect Royce Freeman to be activated and they may sign a third back to play alongside those two. Evans should get opportunities, but who leads this team in snaps is a complete guess. I hope it’s Evans, but everything they’ve said with their actions this year at the position demonstrates their priority for their RB is to pass block, be an outlet, get what’s blocked and stay out of the way. That’s not Evans’ M.O. so if I was to guess right now who leads them in snaps my money is on Freeman or a free agent addition. I earnestly hope to be wrong here, and would happily shift my stance if reports are contrary to my guess. Wait and see here, but in the absence of further reporting or signings Freeman and Evans are both high-variance flex-options.