Week 6 Sunday Drive

Hello folks and welcome to the Sunday Drive — Week 6 edition.

Fortunately for NFL running backs and myself — writing this column at 4:30 A.M Pacific Time on a flight home from a turkey-filled Canadian Thanksgiving weekend — there were nearly zero new running back injuries to report on.

But we did see several impressive performances, including from some very unheralded names. Let’s hop into it!

Metrics Legend:

From Pro Football Focus

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Snaps, Routes, and Carries data provided by Nathan Jahnke

From NFL NextGen Stats

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

From the FantasyPoints Data Suite

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

MTF/A = Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

TPRR: Targets per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

Other Terminology

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and carries inside the 10)

LDD: Long Down and Distance situations — 3rd and 5+

2MD: Two-Minute Drill

Part 1 — Injuries, Returns and Fallout

Los Angeles Chargers

This was the top spot to watch coming into the week after the Chargers lost Omarion Hampton. For a second straight week we had a backup get their first start of the yaer against the Miami Dolphins and find plenty of room to operate.

However, unlike with Carolina the previous week, there was substantial uncertainty in who would get the first crack at touches for the Chargers.

Reporting from national and local sources suggested it would be Hassan Haskins. Following that, I had Haskins one spot higher in the Week 6 Stock Watch, though I did have Vidal ranked higher in my waiver priority since I preferred his upside if he was able to grab hold of the lead role.

Contrary to reports, Vidal did start the game — but the two played in a completely even rotation to start the game. It was only after Vidal began breaking some nice plays that he separated from a playing time perspective, and that’s the kind of thing that can happen in these spots. Whatever the coaching staff’s plan is, when it comes to two very unproven players, there is room for plans to change.

Vidal had four 10+ yard runs in this game. Two of them were purely of the “LOL Dolphins” variety as he was completely un-touched until being eventually tackled deep into the secondary. The other two were both off-tackle runs in which Vidal made an effect move to force a missed tackle on the edge and pick up a nice chunk. His touchdown was on a “fake it to him, throw it to him” play near the goal-line. I didn’t see anything that necessarily suggested he’s a great between-the-tackles runner, but he’s an athletic dude and the staff did a great job of getting him touches on the edge against an exploitable matchup.

If you already have him, you can fire him up as an RB2 next week, and there’s a chance he maintains that role for the next 6-8 weeks. It’s been reported that Omarion Hampton will miss longer than the minimum 4 weeks and I continue to think he’s dealing with a fracture.

Now for the downside worries:

1. The Chargers offensive line remains a work-in-progress and superior defenses to the Dolphins will take advantage of that.

2. Vidal was the better player in this game and it resulted in a major snap rate discrepancy. While he should enter next week as the lead back, it’s at least conceivable that could flip back in the event Haskins is more productive early on. I want to note that Haskins had two incredibly impressive blocks on the game-winning pass to Ladd McConkey that are surely not lost on Jim Harbaugh.

3. Reports suggest the Chargers will be active on the trade market looking at a running back. Top backs who may be available include Chuba Hubbard, Tony Pollard, and Breece Hall (but apparently NOT Alivn Kamara). If the Chargers add any of those three it’s likely lights out for Vidal. Even a lower-tier add could make a significant impact here. Hopefully Vidal continues to stack games like this week’s in advance of the deadline and pushes running back down the board of L.A.’s need list.

All that being said, the above are mostly reasons I wouldn’t be anxious to send more than a 4th or very late 3rd for Vidal in a dynasty league. Sitting here in Week 7 there is no reason to be conservative with your FAAB if you have a need at running back and Vidal is still available on waivers. And if you have him, just keep starting him until or unless the wheels fall off.

Vidal gets the Indianapolis Colts next week in a matchup that is decidedly tougher than Miami but not particularly imposing. The Colts are currently down their top 5 (!) corners, so I’d expect L.A. to lean into a ridiculously high pass-rate. But Vidal is a solid receiving option and the Colts linebackers can’t cover to save their lives so this isn’t necessarily a negative.

Hassan Haskins can be dropped.