Week 8 Streamer Stock Watch

Walking through the best and worst RB streamers of the week

Hi folks,

Welcome back for a late-afternoon edition of the Streamer Stock Watch ahead of your Week 8 start / sit decisions.

Let’s get into it!

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STATISTICAL NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

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SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

THE STREAMER STOCK WATCH

To count as a “streamer” for the purposes of this section, you must have been drafted outside the top-100 picks (underdog ADP), and be a plausible fantasy starter and/or RB1 on their team. The idea here is to give you start/sit advice in the near term for teams relying on these backs, along with a longer-view dynasty stance. The backs are ranked in order of my preference in starting them in the coming week.

The categorizations are taken from my those I used for my pre-season annotated RB tiers. Refer to the legend below for what each mean: (or ask in the comments if you need more clarification)

Tiers ranked in order.

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TIER 1 — STREAMERS TURNED STARS

Jordan Mason

• Production Class: Star

• Contingent Class: A [in effect]

• Asset Class: Speculative

• This Week: Mid-Range RB1

• Matchup: Strong

• Dynasty Value: Base 2 [down from Early 2 due to McCaffrey’s pending return]

We put Mason down a tier last week due to the tough rushing matchup vs. Kansas City and volatility regarding his shoulder injury. He held up fine, but the whole offense struggled and Mason wound up losing two short-yardage TDs to Brock Purdy. We know by now that Mason’s pass-catching upside is about 4-5 PPR points at most in a given week, which means he essentially needs 80 yards and a TD in order to hit as an RB1. He was running very hot on that early in the year but has slowed recently.

I’m putting him back in the ‘star’ tier this weeek however. Mason’s continually impressed me from a talent perspective, and is a near-lock for 18-20 carries. Combining this talent and scheme in a matchup with Dallas’s porous run defense, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t pace for 100 yards. From there it’s just a matter of whether he finds the end zone and how many times. With as 25.75 team total the odds are pretty strong he breaches the goal line at least once.

TIER 2 — STREAMERS TURNED STARTERS

Kareem Hunt

• Production Class: Starter

• Contingent Class: N/A

• Asset Class: N/A

• Matchup: Elite

• This week: Low-end RB1

• Dynasty Value: Early 3

I’ve made it clear in this column that I’m less than impressed with Hunt from an ‘IRL’ perspective. But while I was more excited about Samaje Perine after Isiah Pacheco was first ruled out for extended time due to his skillset potentially combining all available HVTs, I did advocate for taking shots across the board, and as a result have some Hunt in deeper, FFPC/NFFC formats.

Clearly the weakness of my initial analyis was projecting too much on a talent-based case against Hunt (which I maintain was accurate in terms of what he actually is at this point) when he had the familiarity advantage and his competition for the role also had massive talent questions / deficiencies. But one thing I’m happy about emphasizing was that this backfield was worth prioritizing, and making different bets on across your portfolio of leagues (sometimes even within the same league).

Hunt — who has shown absolutely zero explosiveness, but to his credit has been able to churn out consistent gains — is among the highest floor RBs in fantasy right now, with a bankable 15-20 carries each week, a sprinkling of early-down receiving work, and high TD equity.

The reason I have him a tier behind Mason — whose base role is quite similar — is that Carson Steele has checked in for snaps when the ball is on the one-yard line in each of the last two games. It has yet to result in him recieving a carry either because the team throws or takes a penalty to back them off the one, but it’s something to be aware of. Hunt is overwhelmingly likely to be the back from the five-yard line, but the Chiefs still seem attached to using Steele in specific situations, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he annoyingly vultures one. The other reason is just that I give Hunt practically zero equity to break a 40+ yard run which lowers his yardage ceiling considerably compared to Mason.

All that being said, it’s an elite spot vs. the Raiders this week and Hunt is a top-12 start at the position.

JK Dobbins

• Production Class: Starter

• Contingent Class: N/A

• This Week: Low-end RB1

• Matchup: Strong

• Asset Class: Speculative

• Dynasty Value: Base 2

This situation is almost identical to the one above, with a RB on a fairly boring offense piloted by a great QB — albeit one who isn’t producing like it right now — against a poor defense as a heavy favourite. The one note I’d make here is that after being embarassed on the ground for two straight weeks, New Orleans has multiple starters in their front 7 returning from injury — so the matchup might not be quite as excellent as it’s percieved to be.

I like Dobbins more as a talent than Hunt of course, but it’s hard to deny that we haven’t seen anything explosive out of him since the first two weeks, which aligns with the arc of achilles returns according to medical experts. I was impressed by him in the Denver game, but less so in the Arizona spot. I didn’t notice anything he did wrong per se, but we’ve seen several RBs torch that defense, and I don’t want to let my personal affection toward Dobbins colour what was clearly a dissapointing result.

At the end of the day I ranked Hunt a nudge higher since the role is about the same and his team has team has a field goal higher team total.

Kimani Vidal is mixing in for plenty of snaps, a lot of them are coming in passing situations however. This is similar to the role Gus Edwards played in Weeks 3-4. The intention from the coaching staff is clearly to make Dobbins their feature back, while trying to keep him fresh by loading a lot of empty calorie snaps on the secondary RB. I understand the approach, but I suspect defenses may have taken note in the same way we have, and I think it’s hurting Dobbins’ efficiency.

It would be one thing if Vidal was simply the designated LDD back — you don’t have to worry about play-tipping on 3rd and 10: we know you’re passing. But instead they seem to use the backs interchangeably (with Dobbins playing more of course) from a down and distance perspective, and it’s just that they’re much more likely to call a run whenever Dobbins is on the field.

From a longer term perspective, this is probably a decent indicator for Vidal that he’s trusted to handle passing situations. Compare it to the other rookie RB in their Week 7 game in Trey Benson, for instance. I don’t doubt that if James Conner suffered an injury we’d see Benson recieve far more carries thatn Emari Demercado. But for the time being, Benson is far behind Conner for the primary work, nor is he trusted enough to play the currently avaialble secondary role. This puts a cap on his contingent upside at least in 2024. For Vidal, there’s no sign yet that he’s on the verge of taking over RB1 duties or even forcing much of a timeshare. But the fact that most of what’s left over behind Dobbins are passing snaps, and they’ve entrusted those to the rookie rather than veterans like Jaret Patterson or Hassan Haskins indicates that if Dobbins were to suffer an injury, there’s no obvious limit to Vidal’s contingent role.

Chase Brown

• Production Class: Low-end starter

• Contingent Class: A

• Asset Class: Speculative

• This week: Low-end RB2

• Matchup: Average

• Dynasty Value: Base 2

Chase Brown’s role has stablized as a guy who is likely to handle two-thirds of touches, and half the snaps, while Moss pitches in on early downs and continues to play LDD/2-minute work as the best pass protector. The skillsets and offensive tendencies are quite different but from a pure distribution of touches and snaps perspective, it’s quite similar to Washington and Pittsburgh, with Brown getting the Brian Robinson / Najee Harris role, and Zack Moss getting the Austin Ekeler / Jaylen Warren role.

It’s counter-intuitive to think of Brown and Moss compared to those backs based on how they’re discussed, and I’m not making a player comparison — purely just stating their relative snap-rates, touch shares, and in what situations each is on the field.

One reason why the skillsets are inverted to the roles compared to those backfields is that unlike in Washington and Pittsburgh, the better pass catcher is not the better pass protector, and the preferred runner is the speed back rather than the power back. The usage however makes sense in the context of an offense that does not flow through the run to the extent those other team do.

Cincinnatti’s offense will ultimately go as far as Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins take it. The result of their pass-heavy tendencies is that the most impoirtant thing a passing down back on this team can do is protect the QB. It also means that their run game will often get advantageous looks against light boxes, which Chase Brown is better suited to take advantage of than Zack Moss. They’re not running the ball enough to worry about whether their primary runner can handle 20 carries anyhow.

The downside of how this offense works however is that the rushing volume floor for either back is just not there, especially if the team gets behind. This leads to Brown being quite volatile: in weeks they play from ahead and the offense roles, Brown can see 15-20 touches with a high TD expectation, and his speed gives him efficiency upside. However, he’ll mix in some duds where the RBs are entirely phaed out of the plans, and Moss is more likely to eat the empty calorie snaps in comeback mode.

Chuba Hubbard

• Production Class: Star (with Dalton)

• Contingent Class: N/A

• Asset Class: N/A

• This Week: Low-end, volume-based RB2

• Matchup: Poor

• Dynasty Value: Base 2

Hubbard has plummeted down the rankings this week due to a combination of Bryce Young getting the start after Andy Dalton’s car accident, and it coming in a matchup with one of the league’s best defense. The Panthers have a team total of 15, which makes it hard to get excited about any RB — even one who’s been efficient and has an elite role like Hubbard.

He should have a floor of 7-10 PPR points even in this spot, but I wouldn’t be afriad to sit him for higher ceiling options.

Brian Robinson Jr.

• Production Class: Starter

• Contingent Class: B

• Asset Class: N/A

• This Week: Low-end RB2 (Mid-range RB2 if Daniels starts)

• Matchup: Elite

• Dynasty Value: Base 2

I’ve been assuming it’s Marcus Mariota at QB for most of this week, though it seems things are potentially trending more in Jayden Daniels’ favour recently.

If it’s Daniels, I would move Robinson up at least above Hubbard and Brown.

Robinson is a fine talent, but most of his appeal is the ability to maximize what’s available to him — he’s not the type to create his own destiny. With Daniels we can rely on his ability to open up rushing lanes and move the ball into the red zone, where Robinson is one of the best bets in the league for a short TDs. He’s basically David Montgomery from a fantasy perspective.

With Mariota, we’re scaling down the TD upside and efficiency as we scale down expectations for the team, and now the limited passing game involvement hurts, as now that 4-5 point floor if he has a 14-40 game with no catches comes more into play.

** TIER 2B — CONTINGENT STARTERS **

Tank Bigsby

• Production Class: Streamer

• Contingent Class: B [potentially in effect]

• Asset Class: Speculative

• This Week: High-end RB2 if Etienne OUT, volatile flex if Etienne IN

• Matchup: Strong

• Dynasty Value: Base 2

Travis Etienne is a game-time decision once again, and seems more likely to play this week than last, having now practiced on a limited basis for two weeks. I discussed this backfield at length in the Sunday Drive so I won’t go over the details again here.

If there’s no Etienne, Bigsby is a volatile play. On one hand, the rushing matchup is fantastic and I expect him to be quite efficient on the ground vs. Green Bay. On the other hand, the Jaguars are a 4.5-point underdog, and we know he can get completely phased out of the game if they’re behind multiple scores in the second half. I’d rank him behind Hunt and Dobbins but ahead of the rest of the starters.

If Etienne plays, my median expectation for Bigsby would be something like 60% of RB carries while the game is close, a better-than-average chance of receiving goal-line work, and virtually zero passing game involvement. But there’s always a chance the role is larger than that, and he’s shown efficiency upside.

Even with Etienne in, I think I’d play him over all the other streamers since the upside of the unknown role distribution and the matchup is quite appealing.

D’Ernest Johnson

• Production Class: Low-end Streamer (if Etienne OUT)

• Contingent Class: C

• Asset Class: N/A

• This Week: Low-end streamer if Etienne OUT, Not playable if Etienne IN

• Matchup: Strong

• Dynasty Value: N/A

You’re only playing Johnson if Etienne misses, and it’s still not a great play. His best path to producing involves the offense failing in the first place to place the team in a big deficit, and while he’s likely to get a lot of snaps in that case, several of them will be spent in pass protection. With Etienne out, he’d top my list of desparation streamers but no higher. \