Are we really doing this shit again?

RBs do not "steal" touches.

When I broke into the “industry” I used to hear people say they got exhausted by having the same arguments every year, even after the point was seemingly proven in previous seasons.

It’s probably a mark of hubris that I didn’t think that would ever be me. I liked to think that was because I was happy to have these conversations with anyone, to try to show people my perspective, and if need be — let the season play out as it may.

But for what feels like the zillionth year in a row we’re doing the “stealing touches” discourse about a running back room. This time it’s the Denver Broncos, whom JK Dobbins has visited with this week — note: visited, not signed.

As such, I find myself getting into the same tired arguments I seem to have every year. It’s not hard to find out why when the biggest fantasy analysts for the biggest sites continue to be loudly wrong about how to think about running back ceilings. And yes, I am indeed frustrated.

We act like RB volume is derived from a pie that lands on each coach’s doorstep to be divided at his pleasure. Sean Payton is King Lear, deciding which of his offspring receives which fiefdom.

This is NOT how running back ceiling works. It’s not even how running back scoring works at all — never mind how tournament winning ceiling should be analyzed.

Teams do not possess equal pies

Last year the league-leading team in total backfield expected fantasy points (PPR) were the Detroit Lions with an astounding 509.9. Yes — that’s 30 per game. Because Jahmyr Gibbs is a wizard, they collectively scored 36.3 actual PPR PPG, with Gibbs responsible for 21.5 of those.

Are Montgomery and Gibbs good fantasy running backs because they receive so much usage? Or do they receive so much usage because they are good backs?

To an extent it’s both, but Gibbs (2nd) and Montgomery (10th) both ranked in the top-10 of all RBs in PPG over expected last year among all RBs with at least 100 total points. They are genuinely value adding players, and as a result the team puts the ball in their hands … repeatedly. Since they are good players, they often do good things with the ball to put their team in the red zone for more opportunities to score points, and so on.

The lowest backfield in total xFP was the Bears — at a paltry 309 (18.2 PPG). That’s a 12PPG range in xFP between two backfield. In actual fantasy points, the Lions more than doubled the bears. This is why it is absurd when we focus on volume only as a “share” of the pie without accounting for how drastically different the pies are in the first place.

Perhaps the Bears de-emphasized the RB position because they had one of the least effective backfields in the league, with D’Andre Swift leading the way. Swift ranked dead-last in RYOE/att and ROE%, fairing little better across any key advanced rushing metric. For whatever reason the team decided they were done with the explosive but one dimensional Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson has never shown himself to be much more than a replacement-level jack-of-all-trades type.

The great irony is that the coach of the best-producing backfield in the NFL last season now takes on the worst. So perhaps we’ll get the answer to nature vs. nurture after all.

At least until we see what Johnson has in store for the windy city, there is no better recent example of the effect of this variability between backfields than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In 2024, the Bucs ranked 2nd in the league in xFP with 441.6 (26.0 PPG). This came after just 347.2 (20.4 PPG) in 2023. The Quarterback and Head Coach remained the same along with many of the key players on offense, including incumbent starting RB Rachaad White.

But there were two massive differences: Dave Canales was replaced as Offensive Coordinator by Liam Coen and Bucky Irving was drafted in Round 4 of the 2024 draft. By mid-season, Irving had become the lead back, and ultimately surpassed White in both PPG and xPPG. But due to the massive jump in total volume, White still averaged 12.8 PPG — just a 3.2 PPG drop from the previous season.

His role within the backfield was much worse. He declined from 78.5% of the backfields xFP to just 40.3% — nearly half the amount. But he scored just three fewer points per game. This was due to the team becoming a far more friendly environment for RB production — in large part due to the emergence of Irving as a player worth building your offense around. With Irving added, White also became more efficient as a change-of-pace option who is genuinely talented in the passing game vs. in 2023 when he was operating as a miscast bell cow.

This is why when I see tweets like the one linked earlier in the article, it makes me blow a gasket. Players do not “steal” touches from one another. Touches are earned, and not always at the expense of one another.

Despite two years of completely dog shit results from their RBs, Denver has still been one of the league’s better backfields in xFP — even ranking 5th in 2023. Javonte Williams was top-five among running backs in targets last year!

Sean Payton has long been an elite play caller for backfield xFP going back to the days of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram posting Gibbs and Montgomery like seasons as top-15 backs on the same team. You can go back further to backfields featuring Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister etc. and Payton has consistently put his backs in such advantageous positions that there is immense fantasy upside even when touches are being spread between multiple options.

And somehow, because there hasn’t been that same level of fantasy juice the last two years in Denver, people are now associating only the downside of Sean Payton with his backfield rather than the far more plentiful upside. The fact Denver took Harvey in Round 2 after two years of sub-NFL quality RB play in the face of high-end opportunity should be extremely encouraging. If the Broncos were willing to consistently offer up targets and carries to Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime and Tyler Badie… imagine what they might do with a running back who is actually worthy of the touches!

There is a wide range of outcomes in how fantasy-friendly the Broncos offense is for running backs this year, but Payton has proven he will give as many opportunities to his backs as they are willing to handle (and arguably too many to backs unworthy of it). The pie is likely to be large enough, with enough room to expand, that we shouldn’t be particularly worried about how many mouths there are to feed.

If you’re a T.A.T subscriber you know I love R.J. Harvey — placing him as my pre-draft RB4 in my “if I were a GM” rankings. I think he’s one of the most talented backs to come out of an elite class, and will be an explosive, dynamic shifting talent in the NFL from day 1.

It’s possible I’m wrong about that. But if I am, the bet is failing anyhow and not because JK Dobbins — whose efficiency fell off a cliff last season after a hot start — signs or doesn’t.

Put another way, the Broncos currently have RJ Harvey going in Round 5… and no other RB consistently drafted. The only way that makes sense is if you think Harvey is not getting the full load, but the backups are too terrible to consider.

There is clearly room for Dobbins to come in and take the touches already being projected to non-Harvey backs without infringing upon his floor, and Dobbins is not a significant enough addition to seriously impede Harvey’s ceiling if he proves himself worthy of a larger role than is being projected at his current ADP.

The larger point is that RJ Harvey’s 2025 ceiling will be dependent on one thing: RJ Harvey.

The number one driver of opportunity in this game is talent. The size of the pie and the size of your slice will be significantly modified based on how much talent you show on the field over the course of the season.

To drive this point home, I want to share a previous piece from this site. I first wrote my “Running Backs are Balloons” article in 2023, and to date it’s my personal favourite piece I’ve ever written. Largely because I could (and probably will) post it every single year with renewed applicability.

I’ve re-produced a slightly shortened version of it here today as it fits well with my Harvey thoughts above. (Just note for some of the specific examples referenced that it is from 2023)

This post first appeared as an introduction to Part 2 of my Rookie Draft Walkthrough. As news of possible Free Agent RB additions circulates twitter I decided to re-post this as a *FREE* standalone work with some additional notes, and for easier future reference.

If you haven’t already read this, I hope it helps you think about the RB position more imaginatively and dynamically.