Dynasty Rankings

We have those now!

Hey everyone,

This is just a quick post to let you know that we now have Dynasty Rankings for Thinking About Thinking paid subscribers and to help walk you through how to utilize them.

Please CLICK THIS LINK TO ACCESS THE RANKINGS SHEET.

Let me just walk you through some anticipated FAQs regarding the rankings as well as letting you know what is to come as these remain somewhat of a work in progress.

1. How do I access the Ranks?

At the time of this post I have just added all paid subscribers as viewers of my “TAT Dynasty Ranks (June)” Google Sheet.

If you do not have an e-mail from me with an access link: CLICK THIS LINK.

If you were a paid sub PRIOR TO TODAY (June 5, 2023) and cannot access the sheet through that link, please either comment on this post or request access and I will make sure you get access.

If you subscribe SUBSEQUENT to today (June 5, 2023) make sure to request access, comment on this post or e-mail me at jlsand16@gmail.com and I will make sure you get access. I will update the access list every week or so to add new paid subs but if I miss you in between just holler at me.

Hint, Hint:

2. What do the Rankings include?
There are (*now six*) tabs:

1. My overall Top 200 Ranks

2. Consensus Dynasty Ranks between myself, Pat Kerrane and Davis Mattek

3. Annotated RB Tiers

4. WR Ranks

5. QB Ranks

6. TE Ranks

There are some discrepancies between how the ranks are done / presented that I wanted to get out ahead of:

Prior to the launch of this substack I had been doing the annotated RB tiers for the Bulletproof Fantasy Football patreon, but I did not rank any other positions.

My RB Tiers follow a more complex process that I’ve developed and have notes on each ranked players. My QB, WR, TE rankings are all new for this substack and I have ranked them according to the “Base Pick” valuation method that I introduced back in my Rookie Draft Rankings.

My Overall Rankings are an amalgam of the three positional rankings. Because my base pick tiers become increasingly complicated when merging 4 different sets of positional rankings, I chose to simplify the dividing lines in the overall rankings as much as possible.

3. What scoring and roster settings are the rankings geared toward?

As with my rookie ranks, these are set for:

• Full PPR

• Superflex

• 0.5 point TE Premium

• Start 11 players total

• 6-point passing TD

Please adjust to your own settings as you wish and feel free to comment on this post if you would like some clarification on how YOUR specific settings would alter how I would prioritize certain types of players.

4. Why is there a player ranked higher in the overall rankings than in the positional rankings?

These discrepancies should be minimal but there are some instances of players being in different order than on their positional tab or in a different order with a player from another position with a higher/lower “base pick value.”

This is typically for one or more of a few reasons:

i) My RB Tiers were last updated Post-Draft for Bulletproof patrons and I am now merging them into this larger rankings project exclusively for Thinking About Thinking Subscribers. I have made a few small alterations in the overall rankings to my RB order that isn’t yet included in the RB tiers.

ii) At the top end, I have a high degree of latitude regarding how much an elite WR or RB is worth. I consider players like Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson “luxury pieces” to an extent. Depending on my roster situation I may value them higher or lower than the low-end of the elite QBs.

iii) I have incorporated market value into my overall ranks to a limited, tie-breaking extent when sorting through the top tiers. I did not do so in the individual player tabs.

5. What do the Tiers mean and how do I make use of them?

First off - here is what the “Base Picks” verbiage means:

I am expressing the value of each tier in “Base picks” to help you discern the range of value I ascribe to a given trade up or down possibility.

• For more detail on the concept, check out this piece: effectively a “base” pick is a pick in the following year’s draft with an equal likelihood of slotting into any of the 12 positions.

• As a rule of thumb: 1 Base 1 = 3 base 2s, 1 base 2 = 3 base 3s, 1 base 3 = 2 base 4s (don’t send me 54 4ths for Bijan Robinson though)

It’s best to think of the Base pick valuation as my *approximate* valuation of each player’s efficient price. Therefore, it is neither a good buying price, a good selling price, nor their market value.

In general, if you wish to action my “base pick value” you should:

• Buy players at or below their ADP value when it is lower than my assigned base pick value

• Buy players at their cost in your league when it lower than my assigned base pick value and their ADP value

• Sell players at or above their ADP value when it is higher than my assigned base pick value

• Sell players at the highest price someone in your league is willing to pay when that price is above their ADP value and my assigned base pick value

For example: I think Kyler Murray is worth 3 Base 1s. However, at his current ADP of 2.12, he is surrounded by several players worth less than 3 Base 1s (per my ranks).

I would NOT send 3 base 1s value for Kyler Murray: I *would* send comparable players in his ADP range that I have ranked lower than Kyler Murray, or an appropriate package of picks equal to those players’ base pick value for Kyler Murray.

NOTE: it’s important to not take the base pick values too literally. I am ranking over 200 total players assigning a fairly arbitrary valuation standard to them. It is impossible for that to perfectly reflect my most nuanced view of every single player I ranked. Please use these valuations as a guide, and combine that with your own view of the player, your league economy, your league scoring and roster settings, and your team needs and team value to make quality transactions.

NOTE (II): Players ranked in the same tier are generally ranked in my order of preference, but the idea of ranking based on tiers rather than linearly is to leave you maximum freedom to prioritize players in alternate orders within tiers depending on your team and league. I do not value these players in a universal order across all my leagues and neither should you.

6. What are these RB Tiers and How do I make sense of them?

As mentioned off the top, the RB Tiers are a little more complex than the rest of the rankings.

First, please refer to the “LEGEND” pasted alongside the RB Tiers tab. Here is a screenshot of it below.

This walks through the archetype coding on the left as well as the action points.

ARHCETYPE CODES

On the left of each RB you will see four coloured boxes. These are the archetype codes.

It includes a production class, a contingent value class, an asset class and an age modifier.

Each of these is a subjective valuation not a magical formula. But it is meant to add colour (literally and figuratively) to how I’m reaching my final rank along side the action point and the notes.

The production class tells you my projected production for them in a given year in a median projected situation. It is slightly different than my projection for them *this* year in that I am excluding injuries or outlier team environments from the assessment. However I do assume each back to have a broadly similar role to their current projected one.

The contingent value class tells you my projected production level if that player’s contingencies resolve positively. For the most part this refers to a timeshare or backup RB watching their backfield mater or starter get injured. But for some players it means their legal situation resolving, or not being cut, or being traded etc. Think of it as a ceiling column. Clearcut starters in average or better situations are not given a contingency rating.

The asset class refers to the player’s stability and/or talent evaluation. In general, high draft capital and proven young talents are viewed as “core” while low draft capital or questionably talented players are deemed “speculative.” The “upside” label refers to “speculative” assets which carry a significant ceiling along with their low floor due to a favourable fantasy profile; typically referring to either adequate size and pass catching ability or demonstrated high-end fantasy upside. “Point Purchase.” High-end veterans who have proven themselves no longer have an applicable asset class.

I think the age modifier and action points are rather self explanatory on the legend, but please let me know in the comments if you have further questions.

7. How will these be updated and communicated?

This is the key question. I have always resisted doing rankings because the update process is quite a drain on productivity while taking time away from contributing - in my view - more important work.

Therefore, as mentioned at the top, I have partnered with Pat Kerrane and Davis Mattek to do consensus dynasty rankings. Here is how it will work:

My overall top 200 is the list that I have provided for our consensus rankings. We are currently working on a podcast series to walk through them. (They will also be available through Pat and Davis’s sites)

We will alternate updates to the consensus rankings so that they will remain up to date, though at any given time will feature one of our thumbs on the proverbial scale more than the others.’ However, updates will mostly be related to new information so the pre-existing priors on each player from each ranker will be baked in. I will share each update here. On each of my turns to update our consensus ranks I will also update my OWN rankings and will share both updated copies here. My individual positional ranks - with the Base pick valuation tiers - will be exclusively available here.

Because the Annotated RB Tiers take require more time, and are a more structural project, the updates to that will generally be less frequent. My aim is to have those updated exclusively for Bulletproof and Thinking About Thinking Subs four times annually: pre-season, mid-season, post-season, post-Draft/FA.

I will write a short, update post each time there is an update of any kind to any of the rankings lists.

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Please let me know if you have any more questions about the ranks themselves or how to use / access them!