HHG: Ambiguous Backfields (Part 2)

Dolphins and Bears, OH MY!

Hello folks,

We’re back to continue where we left off in Part 1 of the off-season Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB. After a comprehensive preview of the Saints and Eagles, we move on to the other two backfields with three participants drafted in the top 200 on Underdog Fantasy.

In each backfield we will discuss how the team environment affects running backs’ fantasy prospects, and analyze the talent profiles of each player individually and relative to one another. Then we will predict how the team is likely to allocate its high-value touches, and which backs offer contingent value in which areas beyond their base projection. Lastly, I discuss whether each player is a target in best ball, redraft, and dynasty; and on which type of rosters he fits best.

Let’s get into it.

DATA NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. Box Adjusted Efficiency (BAE) Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

Miami Dolphins

De’Von Achane (117.3 — RB38) ; Raheem Mostert (166.8 — RB53) ; Jeff Wilson (175.0 — RB56)

Team Environment

Below is a screenshot of my projection for the Miami Dolphins.

Last year the Dolphins were a poor team environment for RB fantasy production despite being a prolific offense led by a pocket passer. There are several reasons for this, some of which may continue and others I think are likely to dissipate.

One team-wide concern was the 24th ranked 59.9 plays per game. It is exceedingly rare to see a high-level offense — even one that snaps the ball late in the play clock as Miami did — finish with so few plays run. Part of this was due to the outlandish efficiency of the Dolphins’ passing game under Tua Tagovailoa. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle posted absolutely absurd per-target efficiency and bested their expected fantasy points by a combined 4.3 PPG. Miami’s passing game’s quick scores on shot plays came at the expense of potential running back usage during the course of a sustained drive.

While you’d expect Miami to be efficient once again, some level of regression is assured. It is also possible Miami responds to the late season adjustments defenses began to make to their unique passing attack with a slightly more balanced approach than last season’s all-out air assault in games Tua played.

The other issue Miami backs faced was limited pass game usage. Miami tailbacks had just a 16% target share. Part of the issue here was fullback Alec Ingold taking 23 targets, often at the expense of other members of the backfield. This is a similar effect to Kyle Juszczyk in San Francisco. However, after years of limited pass game involvement, the Shanahan system drastically altered to accomodate Christian McCaffrey in 2022.

Everything about Mike McDaniel’s offense in 2022 suggests that similar to Shanahan, placing the ball into the hands of his best playmakers supersedes any other ideology. Therefore, whether the running backs begin to see more usage in any phase of the offense likely depends on whether a back establishes himself as worthy. (Surely, the bad-faith merchants who celebrated The U.S. Supreme Court’s strike down of affirmative action have all purchased Dolphins jerseys)

In sum, I maintain considerable optimism for the upside of a truly talented back in this offense, given its scoring potential, creative design, pocket-passing quarterback, and dearth of weaponry beyond the two star WRs.

Talent Profiles

NOTE: Dalvin Cook has long been rumoured to sign with the Miami Dolphins but to this point there appears to be little traction between the parties.

Signing Cook would likely result in the scratching of either Miami’s 3rd round rookie or one of two veterans with scheme familiarity and over $2M guaranteed each. These are not definitive roadblocks but I do think the odds of Cook signing in Miami are well below 50% and I will write up this backfield under the assumption it is complete as constructed. Should that change I will update my thoughts.

De’Von Achane

The newly apostrophized De’Von Achane was drafted 84th overall in Round 3 of the 2023 draft. Like Kendre Miller — discussed at length last post — he walks into an ambiguous RB room with a chance to claim the lead role. Unlike Miller, he walks into one of the most sparsely invested in RB rooms in the league.

Also unlike Miller, Achane has a chance to be the best receiving option in the backfield from day 1. Wilson and Mostert posted poor YPRRs of 0.72 and 0.69 respectively in 2022. While some of this may be laid at the feet of the scheme, their collective career high in YPRR is 1.04 in a season with 20 or more targets.

I would stipulate that Achane’s receiving profile may be slightly overrated, as I think people have misunderstood him as a satellite back prospect more in the vein of James Cook or Giovanni Bernard. This is not the case. If you did not know Achane was 188 pounds, and only had access to his statistical profile you would expect him to look more like a 215-pound all purpose back than a slight, speed demon. See the below chart from Campus2Canton comparing Achane’s rushing yards market share vs. fellow sub-200 pound early draft picks in recent years:

The former Aggie comes in with a college YPRR of 1.15 and an MSRec of 10.4%. Both are above average marks, but below what you would expect from a truly elite receiving back or receiving specialist. In fact, Achane ranked in a much higher percentile with a 64.6% best season MSRush than he did in receiving volume. From a role distribution perspective (and ONLY that), Achane’s closest comparison in the class is actually Bijan Robinson (64.6% MSRush and 10.0% MSRec), while his fellow small boi Jahmyr Gibbs was far more tilted to the receiving side (36.8% MSRush and 19.8% MSRec).

The next few passages are reproduced from my rookie draft walkthrough where I went in depth into Achane’s profile and cites heavily from Noah Hills.

Achane’s efficiency in a vacuum is uninspiring; especially in his final season. His Yards per Team Play is a below average 1.97 despite a high volume role in both facets of the backfield, and his yards per carry fell from a an absurd 8.5 and 7.0 as a part-time runner in his first two years to an average 5.6 as the workhorse back as a junior. However, an examination of the team context is more favourable to the 84th overall selection.

Competing with Isaiah Spiller for touches in his first two seasons, Achane produced a 92nd-percentile box-adjusted efficiency (BAE) rating, per Noah Hills, when compared to Spiller. Lest you dismiss him as a boom/bust change-of-pace back, he actually faced more men in the box on average than Spiller, and had a 96th percentile relative success rate (RSR).

While he declined slightly in 2022, he remained much stronger than his raw stats would let on. Handling an aforementioned 64.6% of his team’s rushing production, Achane ranked above the 80th percentile in RSR, BAE rating, and missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/A). Achane does not run like a small back on film and does not profile as one statistically.

I often break rushing evaluations into three categories: pre-contact (vision and scheme execution), contact point (tackle breaking and evasion), and post-contact (breakaway speed / ability). Achane has the home run speed — 4.32 at the combine — but his profile in college was actually stronger as a consistently successful runner pre-contact, and as a tackle evader, than as a breakaway threat. And he did this on a team stocked with four star running backs and poor quarterback play in the toughest division in college football.

To this point, his size has never defined his play, and has not limited him from being a high volume, reliable, and effective runner. I don’t expect it to in the NFL unless the coaching staff decides that it will. Playing under a creative offensive mind in Mike McDaniel who has a need for speed, I think it’s entirely within Achane’s range of outcomes to assert himself as the most talented and most utilized rusher and receiver on the team.