The Hitchhiker's Guide to Running Back: Analyzing Ambiguous Running Back Battles

In Part 1 of my off-season Hitchhikers' Guide, I dive into four of the most ambiguous RB rooms in the NFL

Aug 03, 2023

Hey folks,

Starting off with a little housekeeping in this post so want to give a heads up: if you are familiar with the Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB and want to skip directly to the start of the analysis, feel free to scroll to “HHG SEASON PREVIEW — AMBIGUOUS RUNNING BACK ROOMS.” If you want an understanding of what this column is and how it’s changing from last year’s iteration, keep reading through the intro.

For those who followed my work at PlayerProfiler, I started a weekly column last year called the Hitchhiker’s Guide to Running Back. In that piece, I set out to stream a weekly starting Running Back with use of only a few late-round “draft picks,” and waiver claims throughout the season.

My pre-season column outlined a statistical case for Running Back streaming as a viable strategy, followed by a selection of six Running Backs outside the first eight rounds as our streaming options. Last year this included mega-hit Rhamondre Stevenson, as well as strong streamers Khalil Herbert and Rachaad White.

Over the course of the season, I could add running backs commonly found on the waiver wire at the expense of any existing back; and designated three streamers per week; an average of which was my stream score. Additionally, each weekly column featured an analysis of backfields in transition due to role changes or injuries, discussion of in-season management strategy, trade targets, and deep dives into breakout backs with advanced data and/or film analysis.

It was a very fun and, in my view, actionable column; by year’s end we succeeded in streaming a starting RB. However, what I found over the course of the season was that I was most invested in discussing and analyzing the nature of the RB position — both in fantasy and real life — than in writing a pseudo-waiver column and charting weekly streamer scores.

As you can tell, the column is coming back this year but with some changes.

This year’s edition will shift in several ways:

Over the next four weeks I will conduct an expansive pre-season preview of the Running Back Position with a special eye to potential streaming candidates. This will be broken up into five parts: Ambiguous Running Back Rooms, Split-Role Backfields, Fragile Starters, Contingent Value-Based RBs, and Ambiguous Handcuff Battles.
I WILL finish the off-season by drafting my official group of 2023 Hitchhikers. However, I will not be limiting myself to the same criteria, instead picking a Hitchhiker from each of R9-R18 for Best Ball and Redraft formats.
I will not be doing a ‘stream score’ this year. The time it took to chart and the necessity to file my article by Monday so you could make waiver claims based on my recommendations were not worth the squeeze in my opinion. Especially toward the end of the year, the work and time restrictions put into the gamification of the article inhibited its quality and usefulness.
This year I will aim to do each column in two parts. First, I will do a very brief article put out on Monday or early Tuesday assessing some possible waiver options. Second, I will do a longer article toward the middle or end of each week that is more open-ended, but will typically include some analysis of potential weekly streaming options, some league-wide data or film analysis, deep dives into some emerging players or transitioning backfields, and perhaps some more reflective takeaways or dynasty considerations.

This will be the primary weekly content you get from me in-season. However, I will mix in some non-RB content, especially dynasty-focused content from time-to-time, typically paired with a scaled back Hitchhiker’s Guide. Toward the end of the season, as the scope of the Hitchhiker’s Guide narrows, I will pivot toward some analysis toward the Dynasty trade deadline, followed by playoff best ball tournaments.

Before getting into some ambiguous backfields, I just want to encourage anyone who hasn’t read the introductory column of last year’s Hitchhiker’s guide to check it out now. Additionally, I would encourage you to read my piece called “Running Backs and Balloons” from earlier this summer. Both pieces are entirely free, and articulate my general approach to evaluating the position, how I approach it in fantasy leagues, and why streaming Running Backs is a viable strategy. Consider them a backdrop for the more micro-focused preview articles I’ll be writing over the next few weeks.

NOTE: This article is entirely free for all Thinking About Thinking Subscribers. However, all future off-season Hitchhiker’s Guide columns will be behind the pay-wall.

Let’s get into it.

HHG Season Preview - Ambiguous Running Back Rooms

There are currently just four RB Rooms with three participants drafted in the top 200: consequently, none of these rooms boast a single back drafted in the first six rounds. Today we begin to sort through each of these rooms to determine whether or not we are in on the backfield as a whole, who our preferred option is, and on what types of teams each back fits best.

NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

Philadelphia Eagles

D’Andre Swift (78.2 — RB24) ; Rashaad Penny (105.4 — RB34) ; Kenneth Gainwell (166.4 — RB52)

*(Underdog ADP)

Team Environment

Below is a screenshot of my team-level projections for the Eagles. (NOTE: for more on my projections process and how to interpret projections, click here)

The Philadelphia Eagles are a paradoxical environment for running backs. On one hand, they boast the best offensive line in the league according to PFF’s projections. Coupled with the threat of Jalen Hurts’ legs on zone-read attempts, the Eagles provide friendly confines for any rusher to thrive.

Last year Miles Sanders ranked second in the league in YBC/A (2.38), while Kenneth Gainwell ranked ninth (2.11). This explains how Sanders has posted a consistently elite yards per carry while hovering around the league average in RYOE/A for most of his Eagles tenure.

The flip side of the Eagles coin is that Jalen Hurts’ boon to rushing efficiency is outweighed by his negative impact to receiving and rushing volume, and goal-line opportunities.

Despite leading the league in rush attempts per game, Eagles running backs averaged a pedestrian 21.6 attempts last year. More damning, the Eagles allocated a league-low 61 targets to running backs. While the backs scored an impressive 18 total touchdowns, the quarterbacks scored 14. Last year’s Eagles scored eight more rushing touchdowns than any other team: if that regresses, expect the nearly even share of touchdowns between the backs and Jalen Hurts to hurt the backs’ upside.

Last year, Miles Sanders operates as an early-down bell cow, handling 70-percent of RB carries and scoring 61-percent of RB touchdowns, finishing as a low-end RB2. Kenneth Gainwell handled nearly every LDD snap and out-targeted Sanders 29-26.

Key questions entering this year is how roles are allocated in the new-look backfield and whether the change in personnel dictates a change in their running back usage.

Talent Profiles

D’Andre Swift

I discussed the D’Andre Swift profile in depth after David Montgomery was signed by the Detroit Lions, so I’ll give the short version here:

On the surface, Swift appeared to be a much more efficient rusher in 2022 than 2021. However, a deeper dive into his profile reveals that this is more of a result of his role change than his own improvement.

Swift posted a below average ROE% and success rate in each of his NFL seasons, signifying that his “boom/bust” reputation is accurate. In 2022, Swift posted career highs in RYOE/A, PFF rushing grade, and YAC/A, but in a limited role, and against the 55th-ranked average defenders in the box.

In essence, despite the hand-wringing of fantasy twitter, Swift was used well by the Lions in 2022. His early-down rushing load was reduced in place of tendency-breaking carries, often out of shotgun, and a high-leverage receiving role, in which he was largely successful.

While Swift ran just 44.8% of routes, he had the 2nd-highest TPRR and 3rd-highest YPRR among all backs. This hits on another oddity in Swift’s profile. While his usage rate per route has always placed him in line with the game’s best receiving backs, his overall profile has never quite held up.

Dating back to college, Swift was used in a running back rotation as the preferred receiving option. While efficient, he never touched the lofty heights of overall usage of a McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley, or his successor on the Lions; Jahmyr Gibbs.

Additionally, Swift’s PFF Receiving Grade has never topped 70.0. While these grades are not nearly as stable for RBs and WRs, this is a point of major distinction between Swift and elite receiving backs such as McCaffrey, Kamara (in his prime), and Austin Ekeler. In his highest volume season — 2021 — Swift posted a ‘good but not great’ 1.41 YPRR (20th among RBs with min. 20 targets). In 2022, Swift was heavily featured on designed RB targets on early downs, but was frequently subbed out in LDD situations for Justin Jackson.

Therefore, Swift requires a few ambiguities to resolve in his favour to pay off an RB24 price tag. First, he needs to see some level of consistent rushing work alongside Rashaad Penny or in the event of a Penny injury. Second, he needs to monopolize the receiving work in all situations, and influence the Eagles to feature the back more heavily in their passing game through his talent in that area.

As far as the rushing angle goes, I am quite confident the Eagles will get the best out of him. The team’s elite rushing environment, including a heavy does of zone-reads, should offer plenty of easy reads and clear lanes where Swift’s inconsistency behind the line of scrimmage is mitigated and his explosive ability is taken advantage of. I’m less confident they will feel the need to mitigate Swift’s warts in a high-volume role when they have other capable alternatives.

The passing game is a harder sell for me. While Swift has had very fantasy-friendly per-route usage, throwing to Swift has never been an especially efficient vehicle to run an offense through, and the Eagles have no shortage of efficient alternatives. There are also legitimate questions about Swift’s all-around passing down skillset beyond his explosiveness and ability on screens and designed targets, and there is an incumbent LDD-back on the roster.

Rashaad Penny

Penny is a much simpler back to discuss. While his sample size is limited by his health, the former San Diego State Aztec is a two-year reigning champion in YAC/A, matched by a first and second place finish in Explosive Run rate. Notably, his success rate and ROE% has been middle-of-the-pack both years, and his PFF grades have been strong but unspectacular.

I find the “best rusher in the world when healthy” claims some have made about Penny to be unconvincing. But “most explosive rusher in the world when healthy” is a fair assessment. Penny exists somewhere in the axis of Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne, Khalil Herbert, and (pre-ACL) Saquon Barkley as backs with home run ability, tackle evasion chops, and a bit of a Leeroy Jenkins complex.

However, Penny’s real downsides are the fact that he is a complete non-entity in the receiving game (27 career targets), and boasts a career high 119 carries due to an array of injuries which either ended his season or halted his opportunities to climb the depth chart. It is an entirely fair question whether the next time we see Penny, the 27-year old coming off a third significant leg injury in four years will be the same explosive player we’re accustomed to watching.

If he is, it’s hard to imagine a back better suited to the unique environment the Eagles offer. His only (relative) weakness as a rusher is play-to-play consistency. As discussed with Swift and Sanders, the Eagles’ zone-read emphasis and offensive-line prowess should mask any such deficiencies and consistently put him in positions to succeed. In any event, his primary competition for early down carries is definitively worse at the weakest point of Penny’s otherwise sterling profile. Additionally, the Eagles’ tendency to ignore running backs in the receiving game has no effect on Penny, who may not crest 20 targets in a season next to Tom Brady.

The most discussed risk to Penny’s profile is the modest contract he signed. At just a maximum of $1.35M with $600K guaranteed, Penny is an easy-cut if the Eagles wished to do so, and they have no incentive to force him onto the field if he’s ineffective.

However, I see this risk as tied up into his health status. If the injuries have left Penny a shell of his former self, he may indeed be cut. But if he’s the same back he’s been the last two years, he faces no risk of being cut because he’s simply a substantially better rusher than anyone else on the roster, and the only back with ideal goal-line back size.

Kenneth Gainwell

Gainwell has served as a role-player for the Eagles the last two seasons and may operate in a similar capacity to open the 2023 season. At just 5-9, 200 pounds, Gainwell profiles as a satellite back and that’s exactly what he’s been at the NFL level.

In 2022 Gainwell’s overall efficiency (4.53 YPC) was primarily the result of a top-10 YBC/A and a sky-high success rate against defenses largely expecting a pass play. He did not register a single explosive run, and his YAC/A and tackle evasion ranks toward the bottom of the league.

In 2021, when Miles Sanders suffered an injury the team offered the bulk of his role to Boston Scott rather than the former Memphis Tiger. Therefore, with Scott and Trey Sermon still on the roster (for now), I’m not sure that Gainwell has any path to contingent rushing value even if the oft-injured new additions fail to stay healthy.

The real question in this backfield with respect to Gainwell is whether he retains the LDD role he played the last two years or whether this now belongs to Swift. Gainwell graded out serviceably as a receiver and pass blocker in 2021 while regressing in 2022 per PFF. (Note: PFF receiving and pass blocking grades for RBs are NOT sticky)

His TPRR and YPRR are unspectacular, but in the context of the Eagles offense the wide delta between Gainwell and Sanders demonstrates some level of talent and/or some willingness to prioritize him in a receiving role.

It’s rather unlikely Gainwell offers much standalone fantasy value. But the extent of his role plays a large part in assessing Swift’s value.

Boston Scott, Trey Sermon

Scott likely makes this roster due to his special teams ability. It’s also possible that should injuries befall Swift and/or Penny, it is Scott rather than Gainwell who steps up in the rushing pecking order. It is additionally possible that if Swift beats out Gainwell for the LDD role, the latter becomes a gameday inactive in favour of Scott for special teams value.

Trey Sermon is a possible (likely?) camp cut given the crowded room ahead of him and the fact that he’s Trey Sermon. However, he’s been rotating in with the first team at camp, is consistently praised by the beat, and is the one of only two backs on this team with prototypical size. I think he is Penny-insurance in the event he fails to resemble himself in camp or suffers an in-season injury. Sermon is likely cut in camp, placed on the practice squad, or inactive on game days. He could be live for goal-line carries in the event Penny is injured or released.

Early-Downs, Short Yardage and Goal-Line (ESG)

If healthy, Rashaad Penny is the runaway favourite to lead this team in carries and secure the goal line role. Simply put: he’s the best and biggest runner on the team by a wide margin. The question is whether he can consolidate the attempts to the extent Miles Sanders was able to, or whether he serves in a split backfield with D’Andre Swift (or someone else).

It’s conceivable to me the Eagles would run a ‘thunder and lightning’ combination with Penny and Swift hoping to preserve both backs into the playoffs given their injury-history. Due to Penny’s health and contract questions, and his complete lack of receiving ability, it is a necessity that he is live to dominate the carries in this backfield in order to be worth betting on at cost.

Long Down and Distance + Two-Minute Drill (LDD)

This is an open battle and I don’t have a great lean. My guess is that Kenneth Gainwell opens the year as the LDD back given he played it fairly successfully for them for the last two years and Swift has not always been trusted in such a role. Meanwhile, Swift could see more of his receiving work come by way of screen passes, angle routes, and wheel routes on early downs.

However, this is a loosely-held prior and I will adjust my thinking based on reports out of camp regarding who is dominating snaps in two-minute drill situations and how the backs are used in the pre-season. Swift desperately needs this role to be his or else he’s likely a contingent value running back with a Round 7 price tag. My uncertainty regarding this role is why I’m underweight Swift at present. But my expectation is the market largely assumes Swift already has this role and I could see a scenario where Penny leads in carries while Swift dominates LDD snaps in the pre-season and I can fill up my Swift exposure without paying above his current cost for it.

Contingent Value

This is why D’Andre Swift is (rightfully) the first back taken in this backfield. He is live to lead the team in carries and receptions beginning Week 1 given Penny’s injury and contract questions. Even if he does not, he’s the only option in this backfield who stands to majorly benefit if any other player is injured or falls out of favour given his more well-rounded skillset.

My take is that the market is too optimistic regarding Swift’s standalone role and the extent of his upside given the Eagles’ systemic running back target concerns, because I think the market generally overrates Swift’s talent. But if he plays a smaller-than-expected role in the pre-season or if beat reports of a three or four man committee heat up, I would love to buy Swift at a depressed price.

There is a world where Swift’s success rate peccadillos are masked by the Eagles offense, the team prefers his rushing-receiving versatility to the one-dimensional Penny and Gainwell, and treats him as an every-down back. It is also possible he emerges as that back over the course of the season due to injuries or performance. I don’t like him quite as much as his ADP but I like him a lot more than my modest projection would signal.

Each of the other backs have limited skillsets, and too many viable sources of competition that there is likely to be a two or three way split regardless of injuries to other members, with exception of the aforementioned Swift scenario.

Takeaways

D’Andre Swift: I’m drafting him slightly below market in best ball due to concerns about talent and role. However, I recognize his skillset upside in a vacuum, and would be interested in buying if his downside risk becomes further baked in. I will likely be above the market in FFPC due to PPR scoring, and the reduced harm of a mid-round bust in managed leagues. I am well below the market in dynasty where he is most expensive, and where my talent concerns carry the greatest weight.

Rashaad Penny: Drafting at-market in best ball — high weekly upside, and a strong “bet on talent” play, but has limited season-long upside due to one-dimensionality and carries substantial risk. The risk outweighs the reward in a seasonal, PPR league. In dynasty formats he is much cheaper, and I am very interested in buying.

Kenneth Gainwell: Limited contingent value makes him a best ball only play, but is better on DraftKings with the full-PPR format. I was above the market on Underdog when he was near-free, but at his current ADP there are several backs with a cleaner path to high-end contingent upside. His standalone role is not assured and not valuable enough for his cost.

Boston Scott, Trey Sermon: End-of-bench dynasty stashes only.

New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara (90.4 — RB29) ; Jamaal Williams (127.9 — RB43) ; Kendre Miller (147.3 — RB47)

Team Environment

Below is a screenshot of my team-level projections for the Saints.

The Saints are a complicated backfield that only gets moreso the further you dive in. First, this is the most heavily invested in backfield in the NFL. Alvin Kamara is entering year-six of a since-restructured 5-year, $75M contract. Complimenting him in the Saints backfield are Jamaal Williams, who signed a 3-year, $12M dollar deal with $8.15M guaranteed, and Kendre Miller, who was drafted with the 71st overall pick in the 2023 draft. In a vacuum, you would expect each of these players to feature heavily in the team’s plans given that level of asset-investment. However, very few backfields actively use three backs at a given time. I think the most likely scenario is that someone gets squeezed out, but could see that being a different back at different points in the season.

Further complicating matters is Alvin Kamara’s pending league discipline. UPDATE: the suspension has now been finalized at 3 games.

The third layer of complexity with all things Saints is the Tayson Hill factor. Every goal-line series has the chance to end with a rush attempt, a pass attempt, or the dreaded ‘Taysom package.’

You can think of Saints RBs as facing the same goal line conundrums as Eagles backs playing next to Jalen Hurts, but without the rushing efficiency boost of a rushing Quarterback between the twenties, nor the reduction in check downs due to a scramble-happy pivot.

The crowding effect is quite detrimental for a Saints team which has ranked outside the top 20 in plays per game each of the last two years.

Lastly, I think the effect of the quarterback change is slightly misunderstood. In 2022, Andy Dalton ranked 5th in PFF Grade, 10th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt, and 18th in EPA/play - Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) Composite. While this was a significant jump from his previous years and something you would not expect to continue, he was a league average or better quarterback last season. In my view, the addition of Derek Carr is more likely to insulate the Saints from experiencing regression at the Quarterback position than truly improve over last year’s results.

There is one bright spot however. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Saints have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. In fact, the Saints and Falcons rank substantially above 3rd place in that regard. While slow play, Taysom chicanery and backfield crowding are concerns, the Saints do offer three chances to draft an affordable lead back for a team who should have offensive success and play from ahead against weak opponents.

Talent Profiles

Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara was once the most electric running back in the NFL, combining 80+ reception seasons with elite rushing efficiency and the explosiveness to score from anywhere on the field. While those traits earned him a $75M contract, the severe decline in those abilities, along with his legal troubles, place him in a much more crowded backfield than he’s accustomed to.

While he’s never scored highly in consistency — sub-40 in ROE% each year since 2018 — Kamara used to outpace any warts in his game with elite breakaway ability. That’s no longer the case, with explosive run rates of just 2.5% and 2.7% the past two seasons, resulting in a deeply sub-par RYOE/A and YAC/A.

He still offers strengths in the receiving game. While 2022 was the lowest target share of his career, his 18.2% mark still ranked third at the position, and his YPRR of 1.66 ranked 5th. However, one nitpick with his receiving profile was that towards the end of the year Kamara began to lose routes to David Johnson and Eno Benjamin in some LDD situations. This could be a result of his near-league-worst pass blocking grades over the past two seasons.

My theory is that during the Brees / Payton era, the offense was built around quick passes to Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and seam routes to the Tight End. As personnel and shifted and Pete Carmichael was named play-caller, the offense evolved in 2022 to a more deep and intermediate focused passing attack built around Chris Olave and (to some extent) Rashid Shaheed. This route tree demands more time to throw, and thus pass protection becomes a more necessary duty of the pass-down Running Back.

I still expect Kamara to be the clear lead option in the passing game any time he is on the field. But with legitimate (and likely superior) rushing alternatives in place, and possible red flags in LDD situations, Kamara risks falling toward the mid-low end RB2 range even once his suspension is complete.

Jamaal Williams

I wrote about Jamaal Williams when he first signed in New Orleans, and plenty in last year’s HHG column. He has served as a league-average grinder back throughout his career who does what coaches tell him: “Make a little cut, Break a little Tackle, Go Down tonight” if you will.

The one noticeable difference (other than absolutely absurd TD variance) between the Green Bay and Detroit iterations of Jamaal Williams was his passing down usage. Williams the Cheesehead posted respectable YPRR finishes of 1.17 and 1.25 in 2020 and 2019 respectively. In addition, he posted nine games across his Packer career with an 80-percent snap share when backfield mater Aaron Jones missed time. He was the perfect “flexi-cuff": combining an all-situation standalone role with every down contingent upside.

Whether due to skill atrophy or by choice of the coaching staff, Williams the Lion was pigeon-holed into an early-down only role. In games D’Andre Swift missed in 2022, Williams’ snap share rose by only 0.9% and his season long route participation was just 19.1%.

Given Alvin Kamara’s three-game suspension to start the season, the appeal of Williams as a streaming RB largely comes down to whether the Saints view him as an early-down role player, or a compliment to Kamara when the backfield is at full strength, with every-down upside while Kamara sits.

At this point it is hard to parse, but hopefully pre-season usage gives us a better indication. In any event, Williams should be viewed as the favourite to lead this backfield in goal-line touches all year long coming off a 17-TD season, and given Alvin Kamara’s struggles with rushing consistency.

Kendre Miller

Miller is a fascinating selection among the rookie RBs in that he lands in a backfield that is one of the most surmountable in order to become the lead back, but also has the potential to crowd him out of any meaningful role.

I wrote about Miller briefly during the rookie draft process and came away intrigued, though a tick below the market both before and after landing with the Saints.

Miller’s profile largely rests on the back of his positively elite tackle breaking ability (93rd percentile MTF/A). My concern with elite tackle breakers is that metrics focused solely on tackle breaking or heavily influenced by tackle breaking such as YAC/A, Juke Rate and MTF/A are often treated as the metrics which best isolate running back talent, when they really only isolate an aspect of running back talent.

Sometimes when relatively average backs boast elite tackle-breaking metrics, the market sells them as an average back PLUS an elite tackle breaker when in reality that player is an average back IN SPITE OF elite tackle breaking ability; which should ring alarm bells about that player’s ability to avoid contact at the line of scrimmage and create explosive runs after shedding a tackle. I call this the Zack Moss Corollary.

To Kendre Miller’s credit, he appears slightly above that level. His college profile is headlined by a truly elite BAE rating in 2021 playing next to the hyper-efficient Zach Evans. He also succeeded throughout his career in converting chunk plays to breakaway runs at an above average rate; an important signal of explosiveness given we do not have combine data on him. However, he was consistently average to poor in success rate compared to his teammates at TCU, which was the cause of a more pedestrian BAE rating in 2022.

On the axis of elite tackle breakers with nothing else to offer (the Zack Moss axis), and elite tackle breakers who are strong enough across the board to parlay their tackle breaking into overall profile strength (the Javonte Williams axis), Miller sits somewhere in the middle.

The most concerning part of his profile is in the receiving game. His YPRR is a mediocre but not astonishingly poor 0.76 (per Legendary Upside). However, he never cracked double digit routes per game, resulting in a very poor 4.1% best season receiving yards market share.

This profile suggests Miller may be an adequate enough receiver to mix in check downs in the context of an early-down role, but is unlikely to be a focus of designed running back reception opportunities or trusted on passing downs.

This makes Miller an intriguing but difficult bet. On one hand, even if his rushing profile is limited, the 3rd round rookie’s ability to force missed tackles is the single elite rushing trait owned by anyone in this backfield. However, his inexperience, lack of rushing consistency, and lack of passing-game bona fides makes him unlikely to see high value touches when compared to the relative strengths of Williams (goal-line rushing and pass protection) and Kamara (receiving).

I am optimistic about taking shots on the talented rookie in an ambiguous backfield, but do worry that a Miller breakout is confined to between the twenties rushing.

Early-Downs, Short Yardage and Goal-Line (ESG)

My expectation is that Jamaal Williams opens the year as the preferred option in all early-down situations, but especially at the goal line. I do think if Miller impresses that he offers the most upside on the team as a rusher, and he should have the chance to erode Williams’ hold on this role over the course of the season. That being said, I think the bar will be higher for Miller to claim the short yardage and goal line role than to lead the team in carries between the twenties.

While I expect Kamara to mix in as a rusher upon his return, the team invested in two rushing-focused profiles with legitimate assets this off-season after witnessing Kamara’s sharp decline as a runner. I don’t expect him to lead this team in carries regardless of his legal troubles and would not be outright shocked if it winds up a three-way split with Kamara third in line for short yardage opportunities. His upside case in the run-game likely requires a Williams injury or Kendre Miller being redshirted as a rookie.

Long Down and Distance (LDD)

UPDATE: Eno Benjamin tore his achilles just days after publishing. At present, this leaves New Orleans without any logical LDD option aside from Kamara. For now, I would consider Williams the favourite while Kamara serves his suspension, and Kamara the favourite upon return. Keep an eye out for a possible signing here.

I think this role is more open than it appears. I certainly consider Kamara the favourite, but he did not have a lock on this role with much lighter backfield competition than he faces now. It is possible that as more work is taken off Kamara’s plate on early downs, it is substituted by re-instating his monopoly over LDD work. However, I could see the Saints mixing in Williams for pass protection, or even offering a specialized role to a new signing if that role was planned for Eno Benjamin.

While Kamara serves his suspension it is truly anyone’s guess. I think Miller is an extreme long shot to see this role to open the season, but placing Williams in the role he occupied in Green Bay would make sense. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Benjamin open the year playing an LDD-only role.

Contingent Value

There is contingent value here from all angles. Alvin Kamara has the most proven skillset in all facets of the game, and has a complete lock over the bulk of the receiving work. Therefore, any injury to either of his backfield mates could catapult him into RB1 consideration if he is able to retain a 50% or greater rush share.

Jamaal Williams’ contingent upside is somewhat unknown. But I am willing to buy into his usage in LDD situations if that’s the communicated intent of the team over the back half of the summer.

Kendre Miller’s case as a three-down back Year 1 is not supported by his college profile. But there is an anti-fragile element working in his favour as the (plausibly) most talented runner alongside backs past their athletic prime. If Miller is given a chance to show out early in the season, his role may continue to grow. At just 20 years old, there is a lot of untapped potential for Miller to develop further skills. My only concern is the Kamara suspension sets up the most contingent value to be available early in the season which plays more to Williams’ benefit than Miller’s.

Takeaways

Alvin Kamara: I was interested early in the draft season, but his ADP has risen sharply on news that I don’t think was as bullish as the market reaction implies. I’m most inclined to add Kamara as a zero-RB hammer in managed, PPR formats, but find him largely ill-suited to Underdog. His age-risk, declining play, and two backs to compete with for rushing work make him a difficult bet for the type of upside needed to click him over similarly ambiguous backs without a suspension. I would be interested in buying cheaply in dynasty (mid-2nd or later)

Jamaal Williams: I don’t love betting on the player I see as least talented of the group. However, as an early season option on Zero-RB teams or teams employing backs with hold out or ACL risk, he makes a lot of sense. If given the 80-percent snap role he had in Green Bay to open the season, he can pay off his cost in the first month of the season. If I’m not positioned to rely on him in Week 1, there are similarly priced Running Backs I far prefer as a late-season play. I consider him a team specific target (in every format).

Kendre Miller: He has a paradoxical profile in that Kamara’s early season absence is his best chance to hit a ceiling, but comes at the worst time for a 20-year old rookie. Additionally, his greatest strengths relative to his teammates exist in non-HVT situations. For those reasons, I think Miller’s upside is a tad lower than I initially perceived when thinking about a Day 2 RB on an ambiguous depth chart. Nonetheless, he is priced extremely affordably if you wish to close your eyes and bet on the talent upside of an intriguing young player. I will be mildly overweight in every seasonal format; especially managed leagues where the risk of a redshirt year is mitigated. In dynasty I preferred betting on the TEs at cost in rookie drafts but am willing to buy in if he starts slow and falls in cost, or if he flashes any receiving signal.

Ok folks: I had planned to do the Bears and Dolphins in this post as well but I decided that you probably didn’t want 11,000 words all at once. So I’m going to end it here but will be back with the Bears and Dolphins to round out the “Ambiguous Backfields” preview within the next couple days.

See you soon!