HHG Sunday Drive - Week 5

Jaleel McLaughlin, amongst other things

Hey Folks,

Welcome back to the Hitchhiker’s Guide after a wild, wild Week 5. This was probably the most fun week for the year for me personally, with some uber-talented players we’d been waiting on to break out getting their moment in the sun after slow starts.

Ja’Marr Chase completely erupted as Joe Burrow and the Bengals got back on track. Breece Hall’s rumoured role expansion came true, and he paid it off with a monster performance. Travis Etienne showed off his explosive abilities with a multi-touchdown, all-around performance across the pond. He had over 100 yards after contact and looks to be separating even further from his backfield mates. He profiles as a top-five RB rest-of-season and there’s a legitimate argument for him as high as Dynasty RB4.

FOUR Mid-Round TEs; Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert and George Kittle, broke out with their best games of the year. As well, we got the chance to see Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp back in action for the first time all season.

I may be a touch biased in saying this, because it was a strong week for my portfolio personally, but Week 5 had a ‘first week of the rest of the season’ feel, with some crucial fantasy assets back to health, and two more in Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkely, set to return next week.

I didn’t have a second column last week and I promise you one this week. It will be a dynasty-focused strategy piece in keeping with the pivotal nature of this point in the season. For now, let’s get to the backfields.

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NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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1. INJURIES AND FALL OUT

Thursday Night Football unfortunately featured several injuries to Bears RBs. Khalil Herbert’s is the most significant, feared to have suffered a high-ankle sprain on a freak play where his foot caught in the ground as he squatted to make a catch. You’d expect him to miss somewhere between 2-4 weeks, and it’s fair to worry about his effectiveness for closer to 6-8. There is no good time for a high-ankle sprain, but this one really feels tragic for a player you know I’m a huge fan of.

Herbert had emerged in the last two weeks as the clear feature back when the team was in neutral script, and the offense appeared to be turning a corner. Herbert was running all over the Commanders prior to leaving. Now, Roschon Johnson will have his chance to step in and make his case to claim the backfield. He was taken out of this one himself with a possible concussion, but with the Thursday Night mini-bye, you’d expect he’s either cleared this week or next.

I maintain that much of the fantasy community’s depiction of this backfield as Jonson’s to inevitably take over was completely out of touch with how talented Herbert is of a runner. The last two weeks illustrated that. However, I think highly of Johnson in his own right as a tackle-breaking machine with passing down chops. If he gets a month to patrol the backfield I suspect he’ll do well with it, and Herbert may have a hard time ever seeing his Week 4 role again. Johnson has been below par in RYOE and ROE% both relative to Herbert and the league, but he’s been sharp to my eye on limited reps.

D’Onta Foreman should be activated in Week 6. If Johnson remains out with a concussion the Foreman sets up as a possible workhorse-by-default who should command almost every early down touch while possibly Travis Homer or the newly-signed Darrynton Evans comes in on some passing downs. Homer himself injured his hamstring Thursday Night meaning the Bears were left with only fullback Khari Blasingame by the end of the night. The Bears have recently reverted to their 2022 rotations when in neutral script, which features the starting back receiving two drives for every one of the second back. This would be my best guess for how they use Johnson and Foreman when Johnson is healthy, with the former as the starter. He’d be a weekly RB2 when healthy.

Jahmyr Gibbs found a new way to frustrate his fantasy managers by pulling a hamstring in Friday’s practice, missing a contest with the Panthers F-tier run defense. David Montgomery cruised to an RB1 week, with a complete backfield monopoly until giving way to Craig Reynolds in garbage time. Part of the appeal of how much xFP there is to the RB position there is in this offense is the elite upside of either Gibbs or Montgomery when the other misses time. Gibbs has an intriguing matchup with Tampa Bay next week who typically defend interior runs better than they do RBs in the passing game, so I hope he can make it back in the lineup. If not, Montgomery is a volume-fuelled mid-RB1.

Jonathan Taylor made his season debut, but it was Zack Moss who stole the show, while Taylor played just 10 snaps (at least he got the ball on 7 of them). I watched every snap of this game live and can confirm that Moss was truly brilliant, breaking tackles as usual but pairing it with atypical burst. Taylor was given $42 Million dollars this week and is one of the best talents in the league, so I have no long term role concerns here. But if they prefer to ramp him up slowly, Moss’s play gives them the chance to do so. My base expectations is closer to a 50/50 split next week with maximum variance on both sides. For his part, Taylor looked good to me on limited touches, breaking a couple tackles and showing some explosion on a well-executed screen play. Encouraging for both backs is how well this offensive line played vs. the best run defense in the league. Even without the threat of Anthony Richardson’s mobility for the majority of the game, the Colts ran for 193 yards, 165 of which belonged to Moss. Quentin Nelson and co. were absolutely moving dudes. The combination of the Colts pace and O-Line play makes this an extremely attractive environment for any RB regardless of who plays Quarterback.

Here’s Big Q serving pancakes on Moss’s 56 yard TD run.

I’m filing this next one under injury-related even though it’s not a *new* injury. Eric Gray saw offensive snaps for the first time and played 30 of 73 snaps, while leading 12-9 in carries in a legitimate split with Matt Breida. If Barkley misses next week this makes both entirely unplayable since Breida was already a desperation volume play on the presumption his Week 3-4 role would carry over. Gray turned is 12 totes into just 25 yards though he did have a nice 21 yard run called back for a hold. I’m going to watch him more closely this week but he’s a name to make sure is rostered in dynasty even once Barkley returns.

James Conner suffered a knee injury and could not return. That left Emari Demercado as the workhorse back given Keaontay Ingram missed his second straight game with a neck injury. Demercado found the end zone here and is mildly interesting profile wise. At TCU he never handled a high-volume rushing role, and was much less efficient than Kendre Miller, but he was the reason the later never played passing downs in college. Playing behind Miller and Zach Evans in college is a decent excuse for his low volume. When Miller went down in the College Football Playoff semi-final, Demercado filled in with 150 yards. His lone year as a feature back came way back in 2017 at JUCO - Saddleback College. JUCO is a looooong way from the NFL but he had 54 (!!!) catches in just 11 games, while adding over 1000 yards rushing and 15 scores. Adding to the profile is a legitimate frame at 5-9, 213 and 4.49 speed. You have to squint for it, but if you do, you can talk yourself into a back with speed, size and pass-catching who has legitimate excuses for low college rush volume.

When both Ingram and Demercado were active this year, Ingram saw early-down relief snaps while Demercado only played passing downs. However, it’s entirely possible the Cardinals have now seen enough from Demercado to roll with him as their lead option regardless of Ingram’s status.

Ingram was favourite of mine coming out of college (read more on him in the link below). But he’s admittedly shown nothing at the NFL level through part-time touches in two seasons. The Cardinals stated Conner is expected to miss “some time” and I’ve seen injury doctors speculate on a possible MCL sprain or meniscus issue. The team also signed Tony Jones Jr. off the Saints practice squad displaying some concern over the health of their RB room.

If Demercado, Ingram and Jones are the backs this week, my base expectation is an early-down split between Ingram and Demercado with a chance for either back to be the “hot hand.” However, the “Line of Demar-Cado” should be locked into passing downs at least. He’s the preferred start and waiver add for now though both are high-risk starts next week if Ingram is active.

De’Von Achane was stupendous again in this game. He was never given an injury designation, and re-entered the game briefly but didn’t see another touch after he picked up a “knee injury” on a 2nd-half carry. McDaniel said he’s “undergoing evaluations and other things” but joked that some of those other things were high-fives and handshakes. I doubt it’s long-term, but keep an eye out for practice reports.

The below image is courtesy Hayden Winks. Achane ran around these poor DBs and was un-touched into the end zone. We have plenty of explosive runners in the NFL; Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, Christian McCaffrey… no other back in the league has the ability to shred angles like this.

Achane has now led the NFL in *RAW* RYOE in three straight weeks. He was my Dynasty RB5 in my update last week, and honestly has a case to be ranked as high as RB2. When you consider what he’s done in these three games, his college profile, and the offense he’s in, you can’t help but wonder if we’re watching the start of a truly legendary career. There is absolutely no ceiling on this player and he’s one of the best reasons to watch football every Sunday. For what it’s worth, I paid roughly 1.5 Base 1s value to acquire him today as part of a multi-piece deal.

The Ravens backfield continued “evolving” with Justice Hill back to full health. He took the lead in snaps while entirely freezing out Melvin Gordon who remained on the practice squad this week. This was back in line with their Week 2 usage. UDFA Keaton Mitchell looms and could be activated next week. He’s worth a stash given how little they’re getting out of their backfield currently. Continue avoiding Ravens RBs unless positively desparate.

Aaron Jones was a surprise inactive on Monday Night. On one hand, he travelled to Las Vegas so he must have had some optimism to play. On the other, he may have suffered a set back either at practice or last Thursday Night. He’s an older player with a hamstring injury which means we just don’t know how it will respond. A.J. Dillon remains a desperation RB2 until Jones returns.