HHG to RB Part 6: Running from Caleb

Breaking down some fairly bad backfields on some very bad teams

Much to your chagrin, our breakdown of the Buccaneers and Cardinals running backs had to wait in line to accomodate a piece on the newly assembled Jets and Patriots backfields. Rest assured, today we get back on schedule.

To this point, I’ve penned roughly 25,000 words on 10 backfields in the Hitchhiker’s Guide across five articles in the last few weeks, along with some non-HHG pieces on drafting in relation to ADP, and reacting to free agent signings. If you still find yourself craving a breakdown of two teams that may win fewer games combined than the number of hours I spend on this flight from Dublin to Calgary, you are a true sicko and I love you.

This is the third and final edition of our Hitchhiker’s series on “fragile starters.” For more information on how I defined a fragile starter, and how I generally evaluate them for fantasy, check out this piece.

One last note: I don’t have the time to continue writing new HHG posts while updating old ones as we gather more information. I try to write each piece from the perspective of “If X, then Y” regarding most known unknowns. If you read a piece after we’ve since gathered information that wasn’t known when I published it, the piece should direct you toward what I think that means.

For example, in the Dameon Pierce article, I discussed the possibility that Devin Singletary’s lack of usage on third downs in the first pre-season contest spoke well of the chance Pierce may take those snaps in the regular season. We now saw him do exactly that in Week 2 of the pre-season. At this point, I am considerably more bullish on Pierce with a strong possibility of opening the year in a true every down, every-HVT role.

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Hitchhiker’s Guide Part 6

NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

Rachaad White / The Buccaneers

Talent Profile

Starting last article, I began including these tables to outline a more organized snapshot of each back’s talent profile using my most commonly cited metrics. This summarized how a back performed last year at each of the three, broadly-defined stages of rushing the football.

Below is Rachaad White’s table and it’s… not great, Bob!

White came into the NFL as a late third round pick, and cult-favourite among the analytics community. I was on board with the enthusiasm surrounding White, but fear the fantasy community plays a poorly executed game of telephone when falling in love with backs like White as mid-round rookies.

White’s most appealing attributes coming into the league were his frame (6 feet, 214 pounds), athleticism (>80th percentile burst and speed scores), ability to handle a significant workload (87th percentile college dominator rating), and most of all; a high-volume pass-catching pedigree (19% best-season college target share, 2.59 career YPRR).

However, with notable exception of his receiving efficiency, the majority of these metrics are signals of capacity rather than ability. In other words, White had the frame, athleticism, and skillsets to do everything an elite fantasy back does if he had the talent to follow through and the opportunity to do so.

Whether those conditions would be satisfied was TBD. White had a sub-six film grade from Lance Zierlein, and fell to the back-half of the third round. He was also an old prospect who transferred from JUCO before breaking out in his Age 22 season at Arizona State. Lastly, the bulk of his rushing efficiency profile was acceptable but unexceptional.

I was excited about White’s upside and felt he was well worth the price of admission as an early-2nd-round rookie pick and 8th-10th round seasonal pick. But he was less an inevitable force of talent than a well-constructed beneficiary of good fortune.

Coming out of his first year, we can feel more bullish on the chance volume falls into his lap, as the team made no effort to bring in a challenger after releasing Leonard Fournette. However, the chance he’s a supreme talent are minimal.

White was one of the least efficient backs in the league across the board in 2022. He rarely produced what was expected on his carries, struggled to evade tacklers, and was not explosive despite his athletic gifts.

I’ve seen pro-White campaigners point out that Leonard Fournette ranking near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistic White does indicates a bad environment in Tampa Bay that precluded him from the chance to run efficiently. I don’t doubt the Buccaneers had systemic struggles, but if your talent argument starts with the premise that you are just as effective as the currently un-employed and perpetually inefficient Leonard Fournette, it’s not a winning argument. Additionally, even if you don’t trust “over expected” metrics to properly adjust for adverse context, PFF’s qualitative grading placed White 44th of 48 backs in our sample simply on film analysis. Average efficiency college player becomes poor efficiency NFL rookie is by far the simplest explanation for White’s 2022 campaign.

On the rookie note, our friend Noah Hills analyzed White’s campaign compared to other inefficient rookies who went on to great fantasy careers in a fantastic article. I won’t spoil his data, but the TLDR is that almost any upside case for White (names include Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Le’Veon Bell, and Reggie Bush) were either better as rookies or substantially superior prospects.

Outside of “well, anything’s possible,” I wager White is a long shot to be a value adding NFL rusher in his career. Perhaps more concerning to me was that White’s pass-catching did not jump off the screen in the way I expected. His PFF receiving grade was strong and a 1.12 YPRR is above average, but for a player who posted the 2nd highest college YPRR of the last decade, you’d expect more. He lagged behind Fournette across most receiving metrics, and was inefficient per target.

I feared his receiving profile may be a touch overstated from college based on a 0.0 college ADOT which is quite low for a back with his efficiency and volume. Typically, the most dynamic receiving backs such as Jahmyr Gibbs or Chrisitan McCaffrey are used as intermediate options with a more complex route tree. White profiled more as an elite screen pass and outlet option. (Think: supercharged college Travis Etienne)

I have complete confidence White can play LDD situations, after being trusted to rotate drive by drive with a veteran passing down option in Leonard Fournette in tow. I also expect his efficiency to improve in a more functional offense when considering his longview profile. But the ceiling receiving upside from Rachaad White may be more in line with Saquon Barkley than Alvin Kamara.

In conclusion, backs with Rachaad White’s attributes are what we want to target in fantasy. But White appears more like an elite fantasy back impressionist, than a legitimate NFL contributor. Nonetheless, with such limited competition on the depth chart, a mere impression could be sufficient for your 2023 fantasy team.