Hitchhiker's Guide Week 3: The Sunday Drive

A more-refined format and your immediate week 3 takeaways

Ok folks,

First off I want to start this with some self-scouting.

I’ve gotten feedback that at least some of you prefer the format from last year’s HHG, in which we typically focused more on utilization, more on upcoming waiver and start-sit options, and less on broader player analysis, or “real football” takes.

If you’re one of those people, I can’t tell you last year’s column will fully return, but I’m making some changes today I think you will appreciate.

As I’ve been pretty open about, the appeal of writing at substack is being able to write to a more narrow subset of the fantasy community and dive deeper into areas I’m passionate about. I have limited time to write this newsletter in addition to carrying on a full-time job and 3 podcasts per week, so I’m trying to put my energy into what I most enjoy writing and what I hope is in line with why people subscribe to me.

Balancing those two things, especially when my subscribers are surely not unanimous in what content they want, consistently weighs on my mind. I can’t promise to please everyone, but I do promise your feedback is taken seriously. With that in mind, my hope is to make The Sunday Drive a more stream-lined, efficient vehicle to get the statistics you care about, along with my perspective on the week’s events in each fantasy format. In other words, I hope it is the ideal column for people who loved last year’s Hitchhiker’s Guide, with exception of weekly score tracking (I’m sorry, it’s just a massive time suck).

On the other hand, I think there is legitimate value in the increasing depth of this column for those interested. It’s a fitting week to discuss this as one of the more #ForTheBrand players in the Hitchhiker’s Guide absolutely exploded this week in De’Von Achane. We’ll dive far more into his breakout game in the Spotlight column than today, but rest assured it was an incredible experience to watch him crush worlds this Sunday.

Speaking of that second column, it will change in its specific structure and focus each week, so you can feel free to consider that the “what Jakob wants to write about” edition. If you have no interest in it I won’t be offended, but for those who want my perspective beyond resuscitation of RB utilization stats, that will be the place for you.

So here’s your Week 3 edition of the new, stream-lined Sunday Drive. I’ve made it free to everyone so you can get a peak at the updated format.

NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

STOP 1: INJURIES + FALL OUT

Lucky for us, there were very few major injuries at the RB position in Week 3.

Gus Edwards left the game with a possible concussion and is currently in the protocol. In what’s become an annual tradition, the Ravens backfield becomes an ever-evolving shit show on a week-to-week basis.

In week 4, both, one of, or neither of Edwards and Justice Hill, who missed Week 3 with a toe issue, could play. To join them are Melvin Gordon, who played the majority of snaps, and Kenyan Drake – who filled in well for this team last year, but lost a costly fumble in Week 3 and played sparingly thereafter.

There’s not much to take away here. Last week, Hill and Edwards played in a near-even split without substantial situational divides. Edwards was surprisingly the one to take on most pass-downs, possibly due to scheme familiarity, with Drake and Gordon mixing in on early downs. If both miss this coming week, Melvin Gordon projects as the lead but it’s most likely a ‘least cold hand’ situation. It’s a low-value backfield due to goal-line and receiving concerns, and there’s no longer a JK Dobbins-level talent we want to bet on to transcend that. Add to this a Browns matchup and Week 5 and you’ll want to look elsewhere at least for the time being.

My preference over the course of the season is to keep Edwards and Hill rostered, with a very slight preference to the latter.

While that’s our only new RB injury, we did see some new-look backfields affected by injuries sustained in Week 2.

De’Von Achane stepped in for Salvon Ahmed as the secondary back to Mostert and instantly put on a show. Seeing 30 snaps to Mostert’s 37, he played a more substantial role than any back had played to this point, and did so from the start of the game. For context, he scored his 2nd TD of the day to make it 21-0 on his 8th touch, and the split was 13-10 at half. They even used two-back sets on occasion in Jaylen Waddle’s absence, including on Achane’s viral end-round. It was not blow-out induced usage.

It’s possible McDaniel read the Hitchhiker’s Guide based on Achane’s deployment. He impressively schemed him into space several times, but also let him work as the consistent, all-around runner he is. The backs were used interchangeably overall, but saw his lowest relative usage in LDD situations, while seeing his highest in SDD and at the Goal-Line. Recall from our summer writing about Achane that the most impressive metrics in his college profile were forced missed tackle rate and success rate. In this game he saw 13 carries between the tackles and gained at least four yards or a first down on 11 of them. With exception of one 2nd and two stuff, I don’t think you could point to size or inexperience as a road block on any of his touches.

Achane is a naturally conservative runner who prioritizes scheme execution, rather than always searching to bounce to the outside. I’ve compared him to a ferocious dog who has such little awareness of his own size limitations that he manages to scare off Bears on pure bravado. We saw the full package of his athletic and cerebral gifts on display this week with a performance for the ages. He was PFF’s highest graded runner, and is the only rusher of the last 3 seasons to hit 100 rush yards over expectation in a single game.

Mostert played incredibly well for his own part so it’s unlikely the rookie will “take over the backfield” in short order, but this is not a genie you put back in the bottle regardless of Salvon Ahmed or Jeff Wilson Jr.’s health status. Expect him to remain in this all-situation timeshare role for the time-being, with growth to expand over time should he continue playing at this level.

Jerome Ford made his first start as the lead back in Cleveland. Regardless of what happens from here on, I think the process of bidding on him aggressively was sound (something I plan to outline more in the late-week column). However, this week’s results were mixed.

On the bright side, he provided an RB1 performance backed by two TDs in a league-worst matchup. On the less-bright side, he turned 10 carries into just 18 yards.

His role this week was strong, and in fact stronger than the final numbers indicate. Prior to the Browns final garbage time drive, Ford saw 40 of 66 snaps, with 14 going to Hunt, 3 to Ford, and 9 with either Elijah Moore lined up in the backfield or an empty set with no RB. Notably, Ford ran 22 of 29 RB routes, and converted 3 targets into 33 yards and a TD.

The utilization was *OK.* Hunt’s first game back in the NFL was likely the best chance Ford had to see a true workhorse role, which didn’t happen. But in fairness to Ford, Chubb has rarely seen more than the (pre-garbage time) 61% snap share Ford saw this week. The question is whether we can expect this going forward. I think in the short term the answer is year. Hunt’s role should first grow by subsuming Strong’s and perhaps reducing Elijah Moore’s backfield rate. If he out-performs Ford from there, he can certainly take this job, but Ford should be granted a few weeks to prove himself worthy of the lead role.

He didn’t get much going on the ground here, but we’ve seen virtually every RB who plays the Titans suffer a similar fate the past two years. For his part, Hunt had just 13 yards on his 5 carries. The area to watch is the passing down role.

The Browns have never operated with their lead back seeing this type of role: a massive split on early downs, but domination of passing downs. They were clearly comfortable with Ford in a passing down role to start the year, but Hunt has played that exact role on this team for several years. If Hunt takes that while also splitting heavily into Ford’s early-down snaps, we could prefer him. If Ford stays in this role, or sees any loss of pass-down work off-set by increased rushing work, he’ll remain the every-week start. For now, I’m maintaining my prior from last week that Ford is the most talented option in the backfield with the most athletic upside, and will have the chance to prove himself worthy over the course of the season.

He’s a volatile, mid-high end RB2 week to week, and worth a mid-late 2nd in dynasty.

Jahmyr Gibbs was featured heavily in last week’s columns and saw his first opportunity as the featured back without David Montgomery. It .. did not go great. He posted an efficient 80 yards on 17 carries, but was at -0.12 RYOE/A which matched my estimation of his performance. He had four chunk runs, interspersed with several stuffs. But two of the chunks came on 3rd down draw plays, and another was a hole so wide I could have gained 10 yards. He had one particularly impressive run down the side line where he flashed his 4.3 wheels, but for the most part he’s not creating much.

Watching him vs. Achane is two completely different levels of playing the position and size has little to do with it. The latter is so much more advanced as a processor. When Achane runs off-guard or off-tackle, his eyes are constantly moving ahead of his feet, modulating his pace to maintain forward motion while assessing the best moment to throttle up through an available hole. Gibbs is more or less hitting the turbo button and running until someone tries to tackle him. This is a crude categorization especially having not played the position, but I see effectively three levels of RB vision: there are those backs who hit the correct hole, those who are patient enough to wait for the best hole, and those who can manipulate defenders into creating their own holes. Achane is constantly at the second level and occasionally at the third. Gibbs is firmly in the first.

This isn’t to say I’m not still extremely excited about the player. His speed is a legitimate trump card on most backs, and his receiving ability is on a completely different level than Acahane or all but maybe five NFL RBs. I’m most dissapointed the Lions completely went away from using Gibbs as a primary read in their passing game this week after making it such a staple in Week 2. He had just one reception here. I’m not sure if this was just a matchup issue (we touched on Seattle being a historically strong spot for pass-catching backs), a response to his mistake on the Week 2 interception, or if they chose to off-set his receiving load in anticipation he’d need to take on more carries, but I sincerely hope it reverts. Week 2 was much closer to the optimal usage for both Gibbs the fantasy asset and Gibbs the NFL Running Back, and they’d be wise to do more of that and less of the Week 3 approach.

Kendre Miller debuted this week and played the slight majority of early-downs, while Tony Jones Jr. handled passing work. He was not able to make a lasting impression, turning 9 carries into 34 yards. This game left me without an updated take on the rookie, except that Alvin Kamara is set to return. Expect him to have 6-10 chances on the ground each with Jamaal Williams on injured reserve, in a similar role to Tyler Allgeier or the combination of Latavius Murray and Damien Harris.

Injuries cut short his chance to make a statement during Kamara’s suspension, but with the later showing significant decline as a runner, Miller remains a name to watch for contingent upside and possible standalone value if he can emerge as the best runner on the squad.

Josh Kelley and A.J Dillon remained lead backs this week with their starters injured. Jones appears closer to a return than Ekeler but neither are inspired starts at this point. Kelley’s role is better after Dillon ceded 31 snaps to Patrick Taylor, but both just are not good enough to help your team without a short touchdown. This is hardly a surprising result with Kelley, who I’ve ripped repeatedly over the years, including in my pre-season HHG column. I’d like to formally retract my (semi) apology after his Week 1 performance. As it turns out Mr. Kelley, I *WAS* familiar with your game.

Dillon is a more befuddling turn, because — as I documented in the pre-season writeup on the Packers — he was at one time a very effective Running Back. The though of benching him in a week Jones sits would have been unthinkable when he was being drafted in the 6th round AS the RB2.

Over the last two weeks he’s continued to lack explosion, and made several uncharacteristic vision errors that have made their way to Packers twitter. He seems to have lost his confidence, or else his 2021 season was a complete mirage. In any case, there is far more evidence in the last two years that he’s ineffective than effective, and we just have to treat him as such until he proves us wrong.

Matt Breida dominated snaps and scored a TD. He still didn’t hit 10 fantasy points. In a much more friendly Seahawks matchup, you can fire up Breida next week as a borderline RB2 if Barkley misses another contest, but the game being played on Monday Night complicates matters.

STOP 2: UTILIZATION CHANGES

Beyond the injury-related changes noted above, here were some key changes in RB deployment to note from Week 3:

• The Eagles had their backfield fully healthy and mostly rotated backs by quarter, with Swift dominating the first and third, while Gainwell played most of the second and fourth. Swift clearly moves at a different pace than Gainwell, and considering how many perfectly blocked runs this offense creates, raw speed is of outsized importance. The extreme yards per carry gap (8.1 v. 3.1) is fairly noisy here given how many of Gainwell’s carries came in obvious run situations in the 4th quarter four-minute offense, but there's little question who the more talented option is here. Let’s hope they truly “ride the hot hand moving forward.” I view Swift as a high-end RB2 for now with mid-RB1 upside should he revert to his Week 2 role.

• The Texans finally adopted a two-man committee with Devin Singletary taking on passing downs and freeing up Dameon Pierce for a higher share of work on early downs. Singletary’s touch count is inflated here from garbage time, but this is an upgrade for both backs’ outlook. Pierce should also benefit from Stroud looking like a legitimate ceiling raiser for this offense when the O-Line gets back closer to full health. A mid-high RB2 season is not off the table yet.

• The Jets scaled Breece Hall up to a 50% snap share, primarily coming at the expense of Dalvin Cook on early-downs. Carter and Cook played 25% each, with the former still handling the majority of passing down snaps and the former mixing in as the number two on early downs. Hall has struggled for running room along with the rest of this backfield due to the Zach Wilson of it all, compounded by difficult matchups. But if the Jets ever figure out the QB position, Hall is trending in the right direction utilization-wise.

• The Falcons took three weeks and some negative game-script to make Bijan Robinson the clear lead back. He played 54 of 67 snaps with Allgeier only at 20 (they continue to run a handful of 2-RB sets per game). Robinson is the dominant passing down option, so we should see a closer split in games they play from ahead and can manage more touches to their backs as a whole. However, they trailed for the majority of the Green Bay game as well and remained more of a split. Robinson is a Top-5 RB rest of season, while Allgeier is more of a desperation flex with elite contingent value.

• The Commanders got a taste of [EXTREME] negative game script and displayed that Brian Robinson remains highly sensitive to trail script. He was hellaciously out-snapped by Antonio Gibson. However, Sam Howell is not remotely interested in throwing check downs. While both backs have been efficient in the screen game, there are very few outlet targets on offer in this offense, meaning Gibson is mostly just seeing empty calorie snaps even when game script tilts his way. He’s purely a contingent play, while Robinson is more or less who we thought he was at the conclusion of last week’s deep dive.

• The Titans also faced extreme negative game script this week. In the past, the team has used Henry in passing situations they typically don’t to ensure he’s not lost from the game when they trail. That’s no longer the case. He saw just 17 snaps, turning 10 carries into 20 yards, while Spears dominated the second half snaps. Henry can still get fed when the team plays from ahead, but he’s qucikly approaching #WashedWatch, and the Titans are not dictating their choices to his involvement.

• The Seahawks upped Zach Charbonnet to a nearly even snaps split with Ken Walker. He’s now taken over the two-minute drill and seems likely to push Deejay Dallas out of LDD snaps entirely within weeks. Walker has his first +RYOE game this week, and even caught a long wheel route. But Charbonnet has been the more consistent runner on his opportunities, and shone in this one. We’re going to spotlight this backfield later in the week, but for now it’s simply a team with more talent than touches. Walker remains the preferred start and the most explosive option, but Charbonnet is in possible flex consideration, and one of the league’s best handcuffs.

STOP 3: WAIVER CONSIDERATIONS

Due to the lack of injuries it’s a fairly thin RB waiver week. The following options are less than 50% rostered (Yahoo!) and deserving of a look. Recommended bids assume a standard ‘home’ league: 1QB, 2RB, 2/3 WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 5-6 BENCH.

Roschon Johnson: Still behind Khalil Herbert but only slightly. I’m not sure Herbert has truly done anything to lose this job, but he’s not done anything on the level of his performance last year yet either. Johnson has been more efficient and the Bears are certainly a team positioned to make changes of any kind. If this offense ever becomes functional he is a great late season upside option. BID 5-10%

De’Von Achane: See everything above. BID 70%+

Tyjae Spears, Elijah Mitchell, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Chuba Hubbard: Assorted RB2 / role-player backs with strong contingent upside. Likely no big more than 1-2% necessary if they are available, but all “should” be rostered in every league.

STOP 4: STREAMER STOCK WATCH

In this last section, I quickly run down where the current streamer landscape sits in all formats. To count as a “streamer” for the purposes of this section, you must have been drafted outside the top-100 picks (underdog ADP), and be a plausible Top-24 weekly starter and/or RB1 on their team. The idea here is to give you start/sit advice in the near term for teams relying on these backs, along with a longer-view dynasty stance. The backs are ranked in order of dynasty priority.

The categorizations are taken from my those on my annotated RB tiers. Refer to the legend below for what each mean: (or ask in the comments if you need more clarification)

1. De’Von Achane:

   • Production Class: Streamer

   • Contingent Class: B

   • Asset Class: Upside

   • Week 4 Projection: Low-End RB2

   • Dynasty Value: “Late 1st”

2. Brian Robinson Jr.

   1. Production Class: Streamer/Starter

   2. Contingent Class: N/A

   3. Asset Class: Speculative

   4. Week 4 Projection: Low-End RB2

   5. Dynasty Value: “Early 2nd”

3. Kyren Williams

   1. Production Class: Starter

   2. Contingent Class: N/A

   3. Asset Class: Speculative

   4. Week 4 Projection: RB1/RB2

   5. Dynasty Value: “Base 2nd”

4. Jerome Ford

   1. Production Class: Starter

   2. Contingent Class: N/A

   3. Asset Class: Speculative

   4. Week 4 Projection: Mid-RB2

   5. Dynasty Value: “Base/Late 2nd”

5. Raheem Mostert

   • Production Class: Starter

   • Contingent Class: N/A

   • Asset Class: N/A

   • Week 4 Projection: Mid-RB2

   • Dynasty Value: “Late 2nd”

6. Zack Moss

   • Production Class: Starter

   • Contingent Class: N/A

   • Asset Class: N/A

   • Week 4 Projection: RB1/RB2

   • Dynasty Value: “Early 3rd”

7. Joshua Kelley (if Ekeler OUT)

   • Production Class: Streamer

   • Contingent Class: N/A

   • Asset Class: N/A

   • Week 4 Projection: Low-End RB2

   • Dynasty Value: “Late 3”

8. Matt Breida

   • Production Class: Streamer

   • Contingent Class: N/A

   • Asset Class: N/A

   • Week 4 Projection: Flex

   • Dynasty Value: “Base 4”

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That’s all for today!

I hope you enjoyed this week’s content and the re-vamped column. If yes, I’d love to hear about it. If not, I’d love to hear about it. I do value your feedback very much and aim to make this as rewarding of an experience for you as it is for me!

See you soon!

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Metrics Legend:

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

BAE Rating = Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating, A box-count weighted efficiency metric comparing a RB vs. his teammates created by Noah Hills

RSR = Relative Success Rate, a metric created by Noah Hills to measure a running back’s rate of successful carries vs. that of their team-mates

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Juke Rate: PlayerProfiler’s tackle avoidance metric, combining both broken tackles and evaded tackles

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run

TPRR: Targets per Route Run

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and goal-line carries)