My Plan of Attack for 2024 Rookie Drafts Pt. 2

The Best (and the Worst) of the Rest

Hey folks, welcome back for Part 2 of my pre-NFL Draft Rookie thoughts. If you missed part 1, in which I dove *deep* into the top 8 players in this year’s class make sure to check that out below. I also went into some thoughts off the top for how I approach prospecting and rookie drafts at a strategic level.

I won’t go as in depth here since there are plenty more guys to discuss, but I hope this paints a picture of where I’m at on the guys on tap in the 1-2 turn, deep into the 2nd round of your drafts, and beyond. Off the top I’ll just say that - as you can see in my dynasty rankings overall - I see this group of players as a long and gradual tier. For those who are not paid subs, I do my rankings in “base pick value” tiers. I have rookies slotted into my overall ranks right now, and the result of that is that I currently have no players ranked at a “late 1st” value. Each of the eight players I discussed last week I had ranked as a “Base 1st” or higher, and everyone I discuss today is ranked as an “early 2” or lower.

This means a couple things: first off, I expect that this tier will be largely ordered based on what happens Thursday - Saturday in the NFL Draft. Every single player I talk about today has legitimate flaws, and while I have preferences, the players who wind up in the best position to capitalize in the event they hit their ceiling are the ones I’ll be most interested in.

Second, I don’t want to be making a lot of picks in the late-first. If it remains this flat, I will prefer making two picks in the late-2nd to one in the late-first. If a couple players separate themselves with excellent landing spots, I suspect the market will make the same moves I’m making, and I’d like to cash in on that value inflation.

Note: In Part 1 I discussed players in their startup ADP order, since this is a preview about how I’m viewing each player within the context of the market. Because I expect the ADP of these players to be heavily altered after the result of this week’s draft, I’ve instead ordered them in terms of my tiers (though I’ve noted their ADP per DynastyDataLab). Within those tiers, I’ll discuss them by position to reduce overall whiplash for the reader, but again - my overall ranking will be noted for each player.

Note: Data sourced from PFF unless otherwise specified. Tables from Campus2Canton. I also frequently review the work of Pat Kerrane at Legendary Upside, JJ Zachariason at LateRoundQB, Brett Whitefield at FantasyPoints, Ben Gretch and Stealing Signals, and Noah Hills at NoahMoreParties.

The Best of the Rest - “Early 2” Value Tier

I would be surprised if post-NFL draft there is no player who rises into the “Late 1” tier of my rankings. Initially, two of the players in this tier were in that tier, but the more I dove into the profiles I just didn’t feel anyone truly stood out enough. My general rule of thumb is that a landing spot should move a player one tier at most. And the more I looked this group of players, the more I felt like any one of them could be my 1.09 with the best combination of draft capital and landing spot, and that my ranks should reflect that perspective.

This group is a mix of players who have exciting pieces to their profile, but at least one critical question mark, which I could easily see myself pointing to as the reason they ultimately bust if their career takes that direction.

Universal trade note: as of today, I would trade any pick 1.10 or late for a “base” 2025 1st. I’ll keep a light on for the 1.09 in case someone hits the jackpot in the draft and the value of that pick rises by the time you are on the clock.

Running Backs

I’ve become a touch more fluid this year in what I look for at the RB position. Historically, I’ve been archetype-driven, especially with non-elite RB prospects - prioritizing profiles who have the most pathways to get on the field, and who would be best positioned to fill a workhorse role, even if on a contingent basis. The keys in that regard are backs who are able to seize both portions of a High-Value Touch role: goal-line work and pass game involvement. Without a path to both, or at least one of them, a back’s ceiling is limited in fantasy.

As the NFL has shifted more and more toward committee backfields of late, I’m trying to become a bit more open-minded. While size and pass catching will always be important ceiling raisers, I am trying to put more emphasis on backs who have an immediate path to seeing and staying on the field, even if in a limited capacity. That opportunity to demonstrate something to the coaching staff in one role has helped young backs establish themselves in recent years and eventually build on those roles, such as James Cook and Rachaad White as pass catchers, Kyren Williams in pass protection, or even Isiah Pacheco as a kick returner.

Compare this for instance to Zach Evans - who I maintain was an undervalued rushing talent coming out of college - who was not able to fill a role for the Rams when Kyren Williams was healthy, and failed to establish himself before Williams got hurt, eventually being passed over in favour of external additions. Or consider Tank Bigsby, who I liked because of his ‘box-checking’ profile despite concerns about his inefficiency, who simply wasn’t good enough at anything to stay in the mix.

I’m not turning the process on its head by any means. But I’m trying to weight talent a little more heavily, and be more open-minded to talented backs with a more narrow profile.

In terms of my specific process for ranking these backs, I’ve watched at least four full games of the top eight backs on my list, while having seen less as we get down the list. I compiled a ranked film score on those backs broken down into 12 sub-categories, though at the end of the day my rank is subjective and not tied that score. More than anything, tracking how I feel about the backs quantitatively just helps me check my biases as I watch. The end rank [pre-draft] comes down to a mix of their analytical profile, my film take (which I largely use to provide stylistic context to each back), and how I project their potential usage from a fantasy perspective.

I also add a few comps at the end. These are mostly stylistic and for fun. I intentionally choose a range of good and bad comps to attempt to paint a picture of how this player hits or misses, if they do either.

Trey Benson - Pre-Draft RB1 - Overall Rank 73 - ADP 104

Let’s kick this off with Benson, who is my RB1 in this class by a hair. In fact, I have Jonathan Brooks - my RB2 - ranked just one spot behind Benson in my *overall* rankings. Ultimately, I ranked Benson higher on film, flipped to Brooks after incorporating the data-profile, flipped back to Benson based on health, and will make my final call based on draft capital and landing spot.

Benson is in my view the highest upside back in the class by a fair amount. In a class largely filled with role-players at the position, Benson offers the size-speed combination we are used to drafting in the top-half of Round 1 of our rookie drafts.

As a 6-foot, 216 pound specimen capable of running a 4.39 40, it’s easy to jump in your mind to the likes of Breece Hall, Ken Walker, or Jonathan Taylor.

The largest difference between Benson and those backs however is that despite boasting the physical profile of a bell cow, Benson was never treated as one at the collegiate level, peaking at a 45-percent backfield dominator rating. A lack of production in his first two years can largely be written off as the result of a devastating knee injury suffered as a freshman, but Benson topping out at 156 attempts in year 4 is more concerning.

Qualitatively, Benson is a true boom-bust runner. The tested athleticism was immediately apparent to me on tape, and shows up in the data as well, with a breakaway run% above the 90th-percentile. Benson is not just a chunk runner, but is able to turn chunks into touchdowns, with a combination of next-level after burners, and a willingness to attack angles at full speed, rather than breaking down and allowing himself to be caught from behind. The result are some truly impressive “s-curving” touchdowns from distance.

The largest issue for Benson is his decision-making behind the line. He’s under-developed as a processor, and can alternate between making overly risky decisions in search of a home run, and failing to recognize cutback opportunities by lacking the required patience. I have concerns about Benson’s ability to make consistently strong reads in a zone scheme, or to make the right reads in “Duo.” Benson’s best work at-or-near the line of scrimmage comes when he’s navigating space on the move, and his best concepts are power and pin-and-pull. For a big back, he can get skinny through the hole, and has an innate sense of timing and angles in order to position himself to evade tackles and open up daylight for big play opportunities.

Benson was asked at the combine about his approach to play-making in the open field, in light of his top-end tackle evasion metrics, and he responded “I just run.” We stan a self-aware king. Benson is an instinctual runner, and you get the best out of him by getting him moving first and processing as he goes.

As a receiver, Benson simply didn’t have many opportunities with just 10 routes per game, and posted an average 1.25 YPRR. He’s a willing pass protector but unrefined. He’s likely an underdog to see considerable LDD work early in his career, but I wouldn’t rule it out long-term, and teams will want to get him the ball in the screen game, given his best traits are operating in space and on the move. He’s popped efficiency as a college receiver, and will be a big play threat who an NFL team should scheme up touches for.

I’ll want to take shots at Benson anywhere given the upside of the profile, though I think draft capital is especially important for him. There is no reason based on his physical attributes that he *can’t* be a bell cow, but given the holes in his game and his workload history in college, it’s hard to project that without considerable team-level investment. My nightmare scenario for Benson is that he lands in a prime spot but with Round 3 capital, and we’re forced to pay an exorbitant price for his ceiling without any fears of his low floor being quelled.

Comparables: Ken Walker, Travis Etienne, Pre-Bulking Regimen Rojo, Jerome Ford

Jonathan Brooks - Pre-Draft RB2 - Overall Rank 74 - ADP 95

Brooks spent his first two-years as the understudy to Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, which leaves us with just one year to judge him. However, his efficiency was impressively comparable to last year’s 8th-overall pick, and he boasted a 76% backfield dominator rating.

Compared to Benson, Brooks is a more conventional profile statistically and has fewer holes in his game on film. Among this whole RB class, Brooks is certainly the most “complete.”

He doesn’t have truly elite speed, but he’s a gliding runner with sufficient juice to pick up large chunks consistently. As a card-carrying member of the Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard fan club, you may see why I find his play aesthetically pleasing.

The above clip shows off my favourite attributes of Brooks, which are his vision and precision in engagements with defenders. There is little wasted movement here as Brooks sets up the defense with a flury of cuts to maneuver himself into space for a huge gain. Brooks isn’t a particularly powerful runner, so he relies on his vision and finesse to evade tacklers and often does so effectively.

My complaint with Brooks as a runner is that as a taller, thinner back (see: Pollard, Tony), Brooks can struggle in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He does not get low, and he doesn’t create a lot of force. It’s one thing to make the right decisions in a six-man box, or out maneuver linebackers with nimble footwork, but Brooks’s thinking man’s approach to the position has diminishing returns when forced to run at a 330-pound nose tackle. This is where Aaron Jones or DeVonta Freeman - who have similar rushing styles - separate from folks like Pollard or a James Cook. They’re more compactly built and create better leverage.

(Note: Brooks weighed in at 6’0-216 but did not participate in any drills due to injury, and was listed at 207 during the 2023 college season. I am incredibly confident he does not play at close to 216)

As a receiving back, Brooks is more well-rounded than Benson. His career YPRR of 1.46 is strong - though not elite - and he ran just below 20 routes per game in his most recent season. He’s also used regularly in pass protection and I would consider it a relative strength. He is not often used on a diverse route tree however, and most of his receiving diet consists of screens and outlet passes.

I’m confident that barring a team already having a pass-down specialist in place that he can play the majority of LDD and 2-min drill snaps for an NFL team, even as a rookie. How much receiving upside that results in probably depends on the quarterback, as I suspect he’s more of a check down option than a priority scheme threat in the passing game.

The elephant in the room with Brooks however is his health. Brooks suffered a torn-ACL in November, and while he’s expected to be ready for Week 1, that’s far from certain, as is his effectiveness upon return. It’s funny to me after a summer of being lectured by Breece Hall bears that ACL is always a 2-year injury for RBs that many appear willing to overlook Brooks’s ACL. Equally ironic to me is how many folks are holding Benson’s early-career production against him, or Blake Corum’s 2023 efficiency against him - both of which are heavily influenced by a significant knee injury of the past - with less concern for Brooks, who is likely to experience the ill-effects of *his* significant knee injury in the future.

For me, the injury is enough to place Brooks at RB2 at least for the moment, but if he is drafted well ahead of Benson and/or to a substantially better environment, I will place him at RB1. However, given the market already prefers Brooks of the two, it may be harder for me to stay above the market on him should his value rise on draft day.

Comparables: Terrell Davis, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, Paul Perkins

Wide Receivers

As I’ve alluded to on various shows this draft-cycle, I’m attempting to evolve with the times in my WR analysis to be more holistic. While the starting point for me is and always will be “how much did you produce” and “when did you do it", questions of “how did you do it,” “where did you do it” and “why did you do it” have become more important to me with every passing year.

Unlike at the RB position, I do not conduct extensive film evaluation myself to answer that question, but I do rely on the work of Matt Harmon, Brett Whitefield, Dynasty Zoltan, and others to help paint a picture, in addition to data on each WR’s deployment and style of play.

All that being said, this plot below from Campus2Canton detailing the YPTPA of each in my next two tiers is a good starting point. Why my ranks aren’t simply in descending order of this chart is what we’ll get into over the rest of this piece.

Brian Thomas Jr. - Pre-Draft WR4 - Overall Rank 72 - ADP 67

Thomas was an afterthought for the first two years of his career at LSU. However, while that may be easy to excuse given the school’s reputation for top tier WR talent, Thomas actually ran 266 routes as a sophomore in 2022. The result however was 1.36 YPRR, which ranked 344th among FBS WRs with 30+ targets….

Thomas made a massive improvement in 2023 to 2.61. However, as Ben Gretch has also pointed out, this shift came almost entirely as a result of more post-target efficiency. Thomas’ TPRR only improved marginally from .180 to .192. It’s possible he became a fundamentally different player - he is just 21 years of age after all - though it’s also possible he went from running ice cold to red hot, and has a true talent somewhere in between. I will also note that Jayden Daniels’ extreme sack and scramble rate had a Justin Fields-esque effect on the LSU pass catchers which artificially suppresses per-route production relative to per-pass attempt production. And lastly, playing next to a superstar in Malik Nabers is sure to have a negative effect on one’s command of volume in the offense.

Despite those caveats, it’s difficult to project an elite fantasy ceiling for a player who was never able to earn a target on 20% of his college routes, given we typically require fantasy WR1s to crest 22-24% TPRR in the NFL. Sure, Thomas Jr.’s targets will be worth more than average given his expected high ADOT and red zone role as a 6-3, 209 pound burner (4.33 40-yard-dash), but we’ve seen high-efficiency players in this archetype such as Mike Williams and Tee Higgins top out in the .20 TPRR range and fail to provide more than a high-end WR2 ceiling.

Thomas is a player for whom the film seems to back up your intuition from the data. In Matt Harmon’s charting, Thomas scored well as a deep separator, but was limited to the “DK Metcalf route tree.” If you’re looking for an example of this type of college player who became a higher end volume earner in the NFL, Metcalf is your best bet - though it’s worth noting that Metcalf’s per target efficiency has generally waned as his role expanded.

I’ve seen some consider Thomas a boom/bust player, and while I expect that to be the case week-to-week, I don’t think that is especially true overall. I consider Thomas a reasonably high floor player because his style of play is extremely valuable in the NFL, and he does it well. The question is how much fantasy value a field stretching boundary WR can provide if he doesn’t add more to his game.

I will note that this archetype of WR is especially landing spot dependent. Thomas needs a Quarterback willing and able to take shots, since he’s unlikely to stabilize his fantasy value with layup routes, and needs an offense with a high pass rate. At their best, Higgins and Williams have flirted with WR1 seasons in the past on WR2 usage backed by high-end per-target efficiency and team-level passing volume and frequent red zone trips. I’m less concerned by Thomas’s target competition in terms of landing spot factors because i don’t think he’ll be capable of dominating volume outside the context of his role early in his career, and would benefit greatly from more single-coverage opportunities over the top.

Ladd McConkey - Pre-Draft WR5 - Overall 75 - ADP 94

Stop me if you’ve heard this before:

“Last year, Puka Nacua had a poor YPTPA, but a lack of route volume was masking an under-the-radar elite YPRR. Ladd McConkey fits a similar archetype.”

Every single year, some outlier will hit, we will assign a reason for that hit, and then (over) emphasize it’s predictive value moving forward.

I’d generally like to bet against that sort of thing, but unlike Nacua (and a hoard of high YPRR / low YPTPA WRs drafted on Day 3), McConkey projects as a late-1st or early-2nd round selection in the NFL Draft. This gives me a lot more confidence in his ability to translate his per-route production (3.26 YPRR in 2023) over a full-time role.

McConkey has valid excuses for his low-route volume. He was battling injuries for much of 2023, and Georgia had a deep receiver room in prior years with McConkey battling the likes of Adonai Mitchell and Jermaine Burton for looks. Additionally, Georgia plays a high volume of multiple-TE sets and is often playing backups for most of the 2nd half.

However, the existence of excuses does not nullify the concern. I’m effectively comfortable that McConkey being a part-time college WR will not equal being a part-time NFL WR. However, as we talked about with JJ McCarthy last week, players of whom less is asked, have a higher concentration of their production doing things they do best than those who have to play in all situations. We can’t simply translate their rate of production to a full time role without reservation.

Anyhow, despite all those caveats and perhaps despite my better judgment… I fucking love Ladd McConkey.

If there is an archetype of WR I’d most like to bet on to succeed in any NFL offense it’s a slot-flanker technician, who will project to play in the slot in 3-WR sets, with the versatility to stay on the field as the ‘Z’ in 2-WR sets. This role is appealing because you’re likely to avoid press coverage and run routes into the short and intermediate middle of the field where most modern offenses are trying to funnel the ball, without sacrificing overall route volume. That’s the role McConkey projects to fill in the NFL.

McConkey’s reception perception and athletic testing back up a player who has the required twitch, speed and separation ability to win on the outside against man and zone coverage, so long as he avoids being consistently pressed. And he’s excellent at it, with a contested target rate of just 19% on deep attempts.

Similar to JJ McCarthy at the QB position, McConkey is somewhat of a black box, but what he appears to do best is what modern NFL offense’s need most. I’m willing to open it up and see what it’s inside.

(Here’s hoping it works out better for me)

Xavier Worthy - Pre-Draft WR6 - Overall 76 - ADP 84

The last of five rookies I have effectively tied in my rankings is Xavier Worthy.

I’ll be honest: if this were two years ago there is no doubt I’d have placed Worthy at WR4, and possibly in conversation for WR3. I think that reflected an insufficiently holistic process on my end, and feel better about where I have him ranked now - which may still wind up being WR4 depending how the draft plays out!

The reason for this of course is that Worthy has a strong volume-based production profile. He posted an elite year YPTPA, and while his efficiency declined in later years, he continued to dominate volume, posting above a 0.25 TPRR in all three college seasons. The post-target efficiency however declined, resulting in a YPRR of 1.91 and 2.13. This raises immediate red flags when we’re talking about a size-outlier who played a non-traditional role in college focused on a mix of deep shots and gadget work at or near the line of scrimmage.

First off, if you’re going to play an atypical role or play at an atypical size, I want you to not just be good enough, but be so freaking amazing in college I’m convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt you are *already* an outlier. [See Achane, Devon]

Targets to Worthy were largely underwhelming, with the speedster’s atrocious contested target rate as a catalyst to that end, and a concerning signal when you consider his projection as a deep threat in the NFL.

Given his size and 4.21 speed, the hope with Worthy is that teams will force-feed him to WR3 production with bubble screens and sweeps, and the addition of 1-2 deep shots per game will take him over the hump and into the WR1/2 range over time. This is more or less the Zay Flowers playbook.

However, compared to Flowers, Worthy struggled in Matt Harmon’s reception perception when asked to run “real NFL routes” against man and press coverage. (He was above average against zone) On top of size concerns, Worthy appears to have a ways to go as a technician.

If this feels overly negative, it’s because there are just more words necessary to poke holes in a profile that at its baseline is quite strong. We’re talking about a combine-record-holding WR with high-end age-adjusted production, and potential Day 1 draft capital. If I ranked Worthy any lower than this, I think I’d be crossing the rubicon from too reliant on production profiles to being too dismissive.

Worthy has special athleticism and a history of drawing volume. If he lands with a staff willing to scheme around his limitations to take advantage of his strengths, I think his ceiling is quite high. If he lands however with a staff that tries to square-peg round-hole him into playing traditional WR, I doubt that ends well for anyone involved.

Adonai Mitchell - Pre-Draft WR7 - Overall 86 - ADP 87

It’s fitting to discuss Mitchell directly after Worthy. First of all, they played at the same school in 2023 after the former transferred from Georgia. Second, their profiles are almost perfectly opposed in every way.

While Worthy is the uber-producer with non-traditional usage and size red flags, Mitchell is a prototypical alpha-WR at 6-2, 205, with elite tested athleticism, who lined up at X-WR at two power house schools. All that’s missing is the production.

Mitchell opened his career with a solid but unspectacular .202 TPRR as a part-time player, and an inefficient 1.66 YPRR. All things considered, given the level of talent he played with at Georgia (including George Pickens, Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and Jermaine Burton) this was quite impressive. However, Mitchell’s second year was largely erased by a high-ankle sprain, after which he transferred to Texas.

At Texas, his only season as a true, every down player, Mitchell posted just a .175 TPRR and 1.72 YPRR. It’s worth noting he did this in a high-ADOT role in which Worthy also saw his efficiency crater: QB Quinn Ewers may not be beating the sucks at football allegations.

By most accounts, his film is impressive if inconsistent. He scores especially well vs. man and press in Matt Harmon’s work, which is the hallmark of a high-end X-WR. However, he’s developed a reputation for taking plays off, which may in part be a function of the half-field reads in a gimmicky offense, Mitchell’s struggles with Type 1 Diabetes, or simply inconsistent effort.

Making a determination on this profile feels impossible because I have so many outstanding questions. On one hand, it’s possible Mitchell is just Brian Thomas Jr., with better early production, and a much worse QB. It’s also possible he’s one of a long, long line of unproductive, large athletes who some team saw something in and drafted higher than they should.

Ultimately my stance on Mitchell will entirely come down to how the market reacts, but of everyone in this tier of WRs, he’s the only one who has both never earned high-end volume per-route, nor been efficient with it. Often players like him are talked up as boom or bust prospects, and I understand why. However, what I keep coming back to with Mitchell is that most “boom” prospects don’t require a litany of excuses to hit a baseline of production - even on a per-route basis. I’ve placed him at WR7 largely out of humility and deference to projected draft capital and the film community, but personally I’m more inclined to make the case for players who produced too late, produced on too few routes, or produced in a non-traditional fashion, than those who never produced at all. Among this tier of players, Mitchell is the one where if he does get the nut landing spot, I’ll be most aggressively looking to trade out of that pick to capture his full value. However, should he land somewhere less tantalizing I will be more inclined to take shots in the early-2nd - especially in drafts stocked with analytics-focused managers who may be equally unimpressed, but more certain of their disenchantment than I am.