One Take for Every Team (NFC)

Earlier Today I posted a final take for every team in the AFC (which you can find below). I’m doing the same here for the NFC: One quick, actionable take for any of your remaining drafts, as somewhat of a summary of all my content this year on various platforms. Let’s jump in!

Dallas Cowboys: Avoid Fragile Veteran Volume Bets

Earlier this year I wrote about Jake Ferguson, and the way in which I view him as somewhat of an analogue for low ceiling players and the flaw of chasing this archetype — especially in tournament formats.

I would extend that further with Dallas. The whole deal with this offense is that they have one elite WR and an elite QB, and everyone else is mostly along for the ride. This really hurts contingent value scenarios for every other option, because the only way this offense is worthy anything is if Prescott and Lamb carry it.

Ferguson and Brandin Cooks sick out as particularly fragile bets to me, who are priced mostly due to their environment, which somewhat maxes out how strong of bets they can be. Ezekiel Elliott is a more reasonable best ball click, but in managed there is almost no upside here either.

I’m very in on Lamb, and I think Rico Dowdle is a well-priced dart throw at the RB room. But I’m out on the ‘known entity’ veterans here who strike me as some of the most dependent players in the pool.

Philadelphia Eagles: Will Shipley is the Last Chance Zero-RB Saloon

Shipley was one of my favourite Day 3 RB picks, but lands in a sub-optimal spot behind Saquon Barkley on a team with little pass volume to RBs.

However, I remain confident in the talent and he’s received rave reviews at camp. He’s a more talented player than Kenneth Gainwell by margins, and regardless of who plays most in a complimentary role to Barkley, it’s Shipley we should expect to emerge should the lead back get hurt. Shipley is one of the last handcuffs with talent upside you can draft, and is a Zero-RB priority.

Washington Commanders: Kliff Kingsbury will feed Brian Robinson TDs

One of my most drafted players this year in best ball has been Brian Robinson Jr. While I’m slightly less enthused in a managed format, I still think he’s a strong option on Zero-RB teams.

The key for Robinson is Kliff Kingsbury’s penchant calling up run plays in the green zone. Kingsbury’s Cardinals offenses ranked 9th, 4th, 4th, and 15th in rushing TDs — despite only having one particularly good offense in those four years. The ratio of rush:pass TDs was more weighted to the run than the NFL average in all four years.

Despite having a mobile QB in all four of those years, Murray only eclipsed 5 rushing TDs one time. Often, he relied on Kenyan Drake, and then later James Conner, as his battering ram. He’s also segmented roles quite clearly in split backfields before, whether it was Drake or Conner playing alongside Chase Edmonds. My expectation is Robinson in the Drake/Conner role and Ekeler in the Edmonds role.

Robinsons is an under-rated runner who is quite well-priced for a player who has a reasonable path to 220 carries, 1000 yards, and 8-10 TDs.

New York Giants: Malik Nabers will have the 2nd highest target share in NFL History

The current leader in rookie target share is Anquan Boldin at 32%. But second place is a tie between Drake London and Peter Warrick at 29%. I think Nabers comes in between these figures.

It’s a hot take of course, but Nabers has nearly zero target competition, and even compared to other recent elite WR prospects like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, Nabers thrives in the short and intermediate areas as a YAC player, who might rack up more schemed targets than those players. Nabers broke 51 tackles in his last two college seasons vs. just 14 for Marvin Harrison Jr. for instance.

I expect the Giants to build the whole offense around Nabers, involving him in the run and passing game, or the designed screen game as an extension of the run. Of course, his explosive ability will also demand targets deep, and I expect him to take this offense as far as Daniel Jones is capable of supporting him.