Been a fan of your work for a couple of years now. Can honestly say your dynasty takes have changed the way I play and made me a decent amount of money.
I think I'm waaaaay to the political right of you personally (though of the never trump variety) but I think this was an excellent summary for anyone not totally up to speed with the super fun polling conversations.
Great job remaining objective and clearly stating your biases. I hope that you don't get any weird comments from maga people (although I'm sure you can handle it).
For what it's worth, I sorta think trump gets blasted tomorrow... Although that may be me hoping too much that we can finally see orange man off. The real danger is that the maga movement points to all these close polls as supporting evidence for widespread election fraud claims. Gonna be a fun time til January!
I just finished reading your article, and I wanted to take a moment to thank you for the thoughtful, well-researched approach you took. It’s refreshing to see an apolitical, balanced perspective on polling and presidential odds. I also appreciate the subtle but evident support for Vice President Harris. Your insights make it clear you’ve considered her strengths and qualifications carefully, especially in a landscape where that type of nuance can often be overlooked.
I know covering any candidate comes with its fair share of backlash, especially when readership spans such a wide spectrum. Your dedication to presenting information honestly and thoroughly doesn’t go unnoticed. Thank you for your work and for backing the candidate you believe is truly best suited for the job—it’s appreciated more than you know.
Regardless of politics Jakob, fantastic column. Just an excellent non-political probabilistic take on the stakes on this election. Hope someone hears and heeds.
Great stuff Jakob. We seem to align pretty strongly politically - above all I value fortifying a strong safety net via universal policies, namely healthcare, which leaves me to the left of the Democratic Party. I’ve sucked it up and voted blue each election cycle but made the decision to vote green this year (I would’ve gone with de la Cruz if she was on the ballot). I admit it’s more emotional/moral than logical as I live in PA and understand the duty I have in what is likely to be the tipping state. And I agree with your overall assessment and do not underestimate the damage a second Trump term could harbor.
But I simply couldn’t in good conscience give the Dems my vote, as they so blatantly facilitate the most horrifying humanitarian crisis in my lifetime, and top it off by touting their endorsement of Dick fucking Cheney (and campaigning with Liz). I think everyone has a red line and they crossed it for me. Call me privileged, selfish, whatever, I just couldn’t do it.
It’s a tough time, and I’m trying my best not to be cynical. That outlook is simply -EV over time. So I still hold out hope that somehow America recalibrates away from corporate/special interests dominating the lifeblood of our systems and we find our footing again. Until then, thanks for distracting me with your writing on BB and DFS, lol. Be well
Everyone is entitled to their decision on who to vote for. But choosing someone who does nothing for four years except to pop their head up and say to vote for them instead of the people that are spending all the time in between trying to make a difference is the part I don't understand. (Well, except for when Jill is dining with Vladimir Putin. That's probably why she's actually running. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vml35yK2_iU&ab_channel=Zeteo) And to blame "the Dems" solely for facilitating what is happening in Gaza when the GOP part of our government is just as complicit in whatever is happening is just a bit simplistic.
Not sure where the every 4 years thing came from but that’s not true. She’s a pretty consistent organizer, and stays very active in between election seasons, I’ve seen it first hand. I think liberal voters only notice her every 4 years because that’s when she gets in the way of what they perceive to be votes they are entitled to.
I agree that Stein is weak on Russia, and can’t even call Putin a war criminal. But on the other hand, I don’t co-sign our current approach of prolonging the war in Ukraine as that will only lead to more death (and more profit for the MIC). She is firmly on the side of negotiating a peace deal asap, which I agree with in principal
I never said GOP isn’t complicit, but that doesn’t excuse the Dems complicity at all. Anyone who acts like the Dems are pushing back in any way is naive. They paused one shipment of bombs for a couple weeks and then continued business as usual, and publicly defend Israel. We literally witnessed them withholding arms shipments without any approval from the GOP, we know they can do it lol. And we also know Americans support a ceasefire! (67% support, 22% oppose. 77% of democrat voters support, 13% oppose). So yes I do blame them, and because THEY are in office and THEY are making these decisions. I am not oversimplifying this. It is not complicated. We are arming Israel as they commit a genocide, and now we’re likely entering a large scale war as they expand their invasion. I do not support that.
Good writeup Jakob.
Been a fan of your work for a couple of years now. Can honestly say your dynasty takes have changed the way I play and made me a decent amount of money.
I think I'm waaaaay to the political right of you personally (though of the never trump variety) but I think this was an excellent summary for anyone not totally up to speed with the super fun polling conversations.
Great job remaining objective and clearly stating your biases. I hope that you don't get any weird comments from maga people (although I'm sure you can handle it).
For what it's worth, I sorta think trump gets blasted tomorrow... Although that may be me hoping too much that we can finally see orange man off. The real danger is that the maga movement points to all these close polls as supporting evidence for widespread election fraud claims. Gonna be a fun time til January!
Danger? That's the problem. They claim fraud before voting even happens!
Exceptionally well written Jakob.
I just finished reading your article, and I wanted to take a moment to thank you for the thoughtful, well-researched approach you took. It’s refreshing to see an apolitical, balanced perspective on polling and presidential odds. I also appreciate the subtle but evident support for Vice President Harris. Your insights make it clear you’ve considered her strengths and qualifications carefully, especially in a landscape where that type of nuance can often be overlooked.
I know covering any candidate comes with its fair share of backlash, especially when readership spans such a wide spectrum. Your dedication to presenting information honestly and thoroughly doesn’t go unnoticed. Thank you for your work and for backing the candidate you believe is truly best suited for the job—it’s appreciated more than you know.
Regardless of politics Jakob, fantastic column. Just an excellent non-political probabilistic take on the stakes on this election. Hope someone hears and heeds.
Great stuff Jakob. We seem to align pretty strongly politically - above all I value fortifying a strong safety net via universal policies, namely healthcare, which leaves me to the left of the Democratic Party. I’ve sucked it up and voted blue each election cycle but made the decision to vote green this year (I would’ve gone with de la Cruz if she was on the ballot). I admit it’s more emotional/moral than logical as I live in PA and understand the duty I have in what is likely to be the tipping state. And I agree with your overall assessment and do not underestimate the damage a second Trump term could harbor.
But I simply couldn’t in good conscience give the Dems my vote, as they so blatantly facilitate the most horrifying humanitarian crisis in my lifetime, and top it off by touting their endorsement of Dick fucking Cheney (and campaigning with Liz). I think everyone has a red line and they crossed it for me. Call me privileged, selfish, whatever, I just couldn’t do it.
It’s a tough time, and I’m trying my best not to be cynical. That outlook is simply -EV over time. So I still hold out hope that somehow America recalibrates away from corporate/special interests dominating the lifeblood of our systems and we find our footing again. Until then, thanks for distracting me with your writing on BB and DFS, lol. Be well
Everyone is entitled to their decision on who to vote for. But choosing someone who does nothing for four years except to pop their head up and say to vote for them instead of the people that are spending all the time in between trying to make a difference is the part I don't understand. (Well, except for when Jill is dining with Vladimir Putin. That's probably why she's actually running. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vml35yK2_iU&ab_channel=Zeteo) And to blame "the Dems" solely for facilitating what is happening in Gaza when the GOP part of our government is just as complicit in whatever is happening is just a bit simplistic.
Not sure where the every 4 years thing came from but that’s not true. She’s a pretty consistent organizer, and stays very active in between election seasons, I’ve seen it first hand. I think liberal voters only notice her every 4 years because that’s when she gets in the way of what they perceive to be votes they are entitled to.
I agree that Stein is weak on Russia, and can’t even call Putin a war criminal. But on the other hand, I don’t co-sign our current approach of prolonging the war in Ukraine as that will only lead to more death (and more profit for the MIC). She is firmly on the side of negotiating a peace deal asap, which I agree with in principal
I never said GOP isn’t complicit, but that doesn’t excuse the Dems complicity at all. Anyone who acts like the Dems are pushing back in any way is naive. They paused one shipment of bombs for a couple weeks and then continued business as usual, and publicly defend Israel. We literally witnessed them withholding arms shipments without any approval from the GOP, we know they can do it lol. And we also know Americans support a ceasefire! (67% support, 22% oppose. 77% of democrat voters support, 13% oppose). So yes I do blame them, and because THEY are in office and THEY are making these decisions. I am not oversimplifying this. It is not complicated. We are arming Israel as they commit a genocide, and now we’re likely entering a large scale war as they expand their invasion. I do not support that.