Post-Draft Rookie Ranks V2.0 - Now with Annotation

I've updated the ranks and added some thoughts on each tier

NOTE: (UPDATED WITH PLAYER NOTES AND CHANGES TO RANK ORDER AS OF MONDAY, MAY 8th)

I’ve now completed or started several rookie drafts and it’s given me a chance to stress-test my initial rankings. The process has made me realize areas where my rankings simply don’t reflect my thoughts, and other areas where it ultimately comes down to a team-specific decision.

I still don’t have enough data to build ADP into my rankings. However, I have built some “vibes” into them by making them better reflect my actual preferences over the average of my leagues when adding these rookies to existing teams.

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I know you probably want to get right into the ranks so I will keep the intro short today but I have to share a little gratitude off the top.

I launched this substack just two months ago and there are currently over 700 of you reading this introduction.

When I was a kid, I used to go on long walks and day dream about different ways my life could play out. I would pick a new job each time, and think about what my house (or condo) would look like, how I would dress, where I would live, what type of food I ate most often, or what cocktails I made. It was a fun activity for a child with infinite imagination at a time of seemingly infinite paths for my life.

As everyone knows, when you stop being a kid and pick a career path those daydreams become less realistic. Don’t get me wrong: I am extraordinarily excited to start a career in law, and I love everyone I get to work with. But seeing this project launch and have initial success has brought back that child-like sense of possibility to my life. That is of course thanks to you, my readers, and all my supporters in the industry who, out of the kindness of their heart, have promoted my work despite ostensibly being a competitor.

Three people who have been especially instrumental in promoting my work have been Pat Kerrane, Drew Osinchuk, and Ben Gretch; each of whom of course is an incredibly valuable analyst in their own right.

Rookie Draft Tiers

As mentioned in previous articles, I have a busy week of content ahead, including:

• Pre-Draft Rookie Ranks (posted Tuesday) including deep dives on all top prospects. Check that out if you want a far more detailed analysis on any of the rookies than is contained in this post.

• Later (within a week): Updated rookie tiers which feature two sets of ranks - (1) my “vacuum” ranks (where I would draft these players without any knowledge of the market’s preferences) and (2) my “action” ranks (where I am drafting players on average considering my ranks and the market’s preferences, and setting target exposures). I will update each list throughout the month as needed.

• Within the next 24-48 hours: Rookie Draft Walkthrough - in which I walk through each tier with an eye to how I’m planning to attack rookie drafts including spots I’m looking to trade up to, back from, or out of and some more market focused thoughts about how I build portfolios in rookie drafts

Rankings vs. ADP and Portfolio Management

These ranks are solely “vacuum” ranks. We just don’t have enough ADP yet from rookie drafts to make changes based on market considerations. I also prefer to do my 1.0 ranks without any outside information because it forces me to take complete conviction on my ranks and establish a baseline before being influenced later by the market and other analysts.

When drafting - especially if you are not drafting immediately - aim to draft your targets at ADP. When in a tier, try to trade back to the end of it.

As a portfolio player, I tend to approach my actual drafts a little differently than I do rankings. More than anything I determine which players in an ADP tier I want at-market exposure to and over-market exposure to. Then process of elimination tells me who I have to fade in order to hit those marks. From there it's a matter of execution. It’s a little like a game of “fuck, marry, kill.”

For example, last year in the 1.03 - 1.05 range I set Garrett Wilson as the player I was targeting heaviest, Treylon Burks as someone I wanted to be at least “at" market on, and Ken Walker as the option I was most accepting of a fade on.

As it happened, Wilson was the player most commonly available at my 1.05. Therefore, I generally tried to trade back from 1.03 or 1.04 to the 1.05 slot. I could typically get Wilson, and if not I could balance out some exposures by selecting Burks or Walker. When forced to pick at 1.03 or 1.04, I typically took Wilson, but mixed in Burks enough times to ensure I hit my desired balance once it became clear I could not rely on getting my Burks exposure at 1.05 only.

By end of rookie drafts, I had taken 10 Wilson, 6 Burks, 1 Walker. This is the type of stuff I’ll go into more detail on in my walk through piece, but it’s something to keep in mind as you read these ranks. If there is a ranking you think is likely way ahead of where you would ‘need’ to take a guy, don’t take that player over other options you want access to in your portfolio. I won’t be doing that either!

One last note: Last year I wrote a piece called Heuristics for Rookie Drafts. I think much of it is evergreen content that is still applicable and helps add context to both my ranks and how I approach drafts strategically.

The Ranks

Scoring: Based on Start 10, Super-Flex, 6pt pass TD, PPR, 0.5 TEP: adjust as needed

Tiers: The breaks are inherently subjective. I use numbers to outline breaks between fundamentally different asset classes, and letters to suggest gaps that are less fundamental, but where I would still not consider picking someone below the tier in a certain case based on positional need or exposure management.

• Example: I would under certain circumstances take Jahmyr Gibbs or Bryce Young 1.02. I would never take C.J. Stroud 1.02, but I value Stroud much closer to Young or Gibbs than I do Stroud and Quentin Johnston.

“Base picks" I am expressing the value of each tier in “Base picks.” This should help you discern the range of value I ascribe to a given trade up or down possibility.

• For more on that, check out this piece: effectively a “base” pick is a pick in the following year’s draft with an equal likelihood of slotting into any of the 12 positions.

• As a rule of thumb: 1 Base 1 = 3 base 2s, 1 base 2 = 3 base 3s, 1 base 3 = 2 base 4s (don’t send me 54 4ths for Bijan Robinson though)

Notes: I have added notes to each ranking. I’ve mostly focused these on post-draft factors to keep each brief. If you want my full take on a player please check out the pre-draft ranks or (for those not included), leave a comment!

TIER 1 - 3 Base 1s

1.01 - Bijan Robinson, ATL (RB1)

Robinson is already a first-round seasonal pick and with good reason. No matter how much Tyler Allgeier is talked up in camp, you don’t spend the 8th overall pick on one of the best RB prospects of the 21st century to keep the horse in the stable.

If Atlanta retains their run-heavy ways, Allgeier could see 7-8 touches per game and leave 300 carries for Robinson. If they revert to a more balanced style, Robinson could be involved in the passing game than the market may consider. Arthur Smith’s Atlanta offense threw 133 times to backs just two years ago.

TIER 2 - 1.5-2 Base 1s

2A)

1.02 - Anthony Richardson, IND (QB1)

Richardson is the type of asset you simply cannot buy even for “market price” in super-flex dynasty *IF* he hits. In general, I think the 1.02 is a tad overrated in the broader context of the market, and I would try to trade up for Robinson, back within the top-6, or out all-together.

If you must make a pick here, Richardson is the type of player you swing for the fences on even if it’s not cost efficient.

1.03 - Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (RB2)

Jahmyr Gibbs is a transcendent receiving talent at a position the market historically treats favourably post-Y1. Buy in now on the upside case in the event you cannot trade for it later if it all comes together.

1.04 - Bryce Young, CAR (QB2)

In deeper leagues, 14-team leagues, or less active leagues, you can make the case for Young as high as 1.02. The lack of rushing upside makes him a player I’d prefer not to throw a massively high opportunity cost at as a rookie because it’s not likely he is swinging league championships for you. That being said, he is the safest player of this tier long term.

2B)

1.05 - C.J. Stroud, HOU (QB3)

Stroud is similar to Young both in terms of safety and limited upside. However, the profile is slightly worse and more reliant on elite weaponry. I like the fit in Houston with a Shanahan offense, and love the draft capital, though their weaponry is poor. He seems to be commonly falling to 1.05/106, and the ‘safe’ play feels much more attractive at that cost.

1.06 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (WR1)

The landing spot is poor for his immediate ceiling. That makes him an inferior bet - in my opinion - to the running backs and Quarterbacks who have an easier path to providing value over replacement year 1 for the value of the draft slot.

Nonetheless, I remain highly bullish long term. This landing spot is reminiscent of Ceedee Lamb’s in 2020 alongside Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Lamb didn’t produce at a difference-making level until year 3, but he did accrue value as soon as he stepped on the field and I see both scenarios coming true for JSN as well.