Week 1 Hitchhiker's Guide: The Sunday Drive

Recapping what I saw from every backfield in Week 1

Hello and welcome to the first Sunday Drive of the season. In this piece, we’ll walk through every backfield analyzing both usage and performance, as well as any injuries that could shift the balance of touches moving forward.

In future weeks we will only discuss backfields which either feature a material shift in usage patterns, an injury or return from injury, or which I believe are set up for a future shift in usage due to performance. But today we will go through all 32 as a book end from our pre-week 1 “level set” column.

In each backfield we’ll walk through where our predictions were correct and where they were wrong, and discuss our expectations moving forward. We’ll also point out some key buy and sell targets applicable to dynasty leagues, redraft leagues, or in-season best ball tournaments.

Please note that I walked through some of my more general heuristics for week 1 reactions in the below post, as well as listing my top non-RB related takeaways. That one is for paid subs only, as this column will be beginning next week.

Dynasty rankings will be updated today.

Last but not least before we get rolling, I’ve pasted in the below metrics legend which sets out the various acronyms you’ll see throughout this post and my source for each key metric.

I’m not going to post the carries / routes / snaps etc. breakdown for every player because there are several sites which publish this. I will of course touch on some participation / utilization data throughout the article, but I won’t be doing a complete summary for each player. My view is that you come here for my analysis of that data and of the game rather than a re-telling of data we can both find on the internet.

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Metrics Legend:

From Pro Football Focus

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Snaps, Routes, and Carries data provided by Nathan Jahnke

From NFL NextGen Stats

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

From the FantasyPoints Data Suite

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

MTF/A = Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

TPRR: Targets per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

Other Terminology

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and carries inside the 10)

LDD: Long Down and Distance situations — 3rd and 5+

2MD: Two-Minute Drill

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We’re going to hit on every backfield here and I’ve just ordered them by the ones I think are most interesting / actionable, and where I had the most to least to say.

New York Jets

This was my favourite backfield to watch this week and one of the most fascinating to write about in terms of what this column attempts to blend together.

Early in the off-season I had Hall ranked very aggressively, and he wound up being one of my most drafted players in Best Ball. Then we had two pre-season games of concerning usage, in which he split reps on the ground with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis subbed in on third downs.

At the same time, the Jets coaches and beat reporters could not contain themselves from talking up Braelon Allen — often at Hall’s expense.

I don’t think you can simply ignore all new information you receive. For instance, look at the Seattle backfield where speculation of an increased split were immediately proven correct.

However, the market reacted strongly to the information we received with the Jets and Hall lost nearly two rounds of ADP in best ball drafts. At that point I was willing to keep clicking him.

It’s important to always remember that pre-season predictions and usage reflects a snap shot in time. But the best laid plans can change in response to events on the football field. Most of the time when we start predicting major changes in usage over the course of a season it’s with respect to rookies or other young players gaining on established veterans. This situation was unique in which Breece Hall was a 4th-year player attempting to fend off two second-year players. But the dichotomy between how Hall and Allen were being discussed and who they have been on a football field in their careers was quite stark.

Hall legitimately looked like the best running back in football in 2022 and 2023 — and even in a disappointing 2024 was better than Allen in RYOE/A, ROE%, MTF%, and YAC/A.

There really wasn’t any statistical case to back up the notion that pushing Breece Hall into a timeshare with Braelon Allen (and Isaiah Davis) was a good idea, but it seemed so clearly to be the plan that it was impossible to wonder whether Aaron Glenn and co. knew something we didn’t.

Here’s what we wrote prior to Week 1:

I think the pre-season usage told us all we need to know for Week 1 here. Breece Hall will play the most snaps, and the majority of early-downs. Braelon Allen will not be far behind him however, and may edge him out for short-yardage work. Meanwhile, Isaiah Davis will play LDD snaps and the 2MD is to be determined (I’ll favour Hall here at the moment).

Hall should draw targets at one of the highest rates in the league among RBs when he’s on the field, but he can’t afford to lose many routes when the team projects to have among the fewest drop backs in the league. Splitting pass-game work with Isaiah Davis is a big deal if that comes to pass.

The bet on Breece Hall at this point is not about Week 1 usage. It’s about betting on a back who looked like the NFL’s best in 2022 and 2023 to displace backups who are long on pre-season hype but short on proven NFL effectiveness.

Hall projects as a low-end RB2 out of the gate, but one that has a ton of error bars in his projection. For the sake of my early off-season Best Ball bags, I hope we look back on the FUD surrounding him as a laughable fever dream by October.

We’ll get to plenty of predictions that proved wrong throughout this article, but this one was close to bang on.

In the first half of Sunday’s game, Hall played just 16 of 33 RB snaps. He lost out on 11 early-down reps to Allen, and Isaiah Davis played in LDD situations and the 2MD. Had we only known this usage, you’d have expected to see a lot of victory lapping from Breece Hall faders lecturing about how anyone drafting him was refusing to pay attention to the writing on the wall.

But we didn’t see any such tweets because Hall immediately looked like the superstar he’d been for the entirety of his college and professional career with the exception of 2024. Dive further into the sequencing of the game, and I don’t even think the usage itself was as bad as the raw snaps indicate.

On the first drive, Hall instantly racked up 31 yards on 3 carries to push into the red zone. But then the Jets had to force their committee plan on us, so they subbed in Braelon Allen for two quick carries which resulted in a combined loss of one. They called a white flag draw play for Isaiah Davis on 3rd and 11 and accepted their field goal.

Hall was the only back to see touches on the 2nd drive (2 carries for 7 yards and a 5 yard catch), which ended in a 33-yard strike to Garrett Wilson for their opening TD.

On drive three, Hall hit for a 33-yard chunk reception, then had a two-yard run, and was subbed off to catch his breath when Braelon Allen ran for an 8-yard TD.

Hall was the only running back to touch the ball on the team’s fourth drive which ended in a field goal. This left him with a 9-49-0, 3-2-38-0 line at half. Allen had 4 carries for 9 yards and the one TD, and Davis had 2-18, both of which were surrender draw plays.

While the raw snap data looked discouraging, I think the application of context made it look much more promising. Hall started every single drive and was the only back to touch the ball on two scoring drives. Because he received a carry or target on 75% of his offensive plays in the half, it only made sense to rest him more frequently between snaps.

It was not lost on the Jets how well Hall was playing for them. In the 2nd half, he played 21 snaps to just 9 for Allen and 2 for Davis. He added 10 carries and 1 target vs. 2 carries for Allen and no touches for Davis (or Gretchen Weiners).

I’m not 100% sure if this was a conscious adjustment, or reflected a correction from the outlier touch-per-snap rate Hall was putting up to start the game which necessitated a lower snap rate overall.

If there is any area for negativity it’s the fact Hall ran just 8 routes (on 25 Fields drop backs). But this whole offense was geared toward giving Fields easy decisions, leading to a lot of schemed up primary read targets. Hall did receive 4 targets on his routes, so getting him the ball in space remained a priority.

Perhaps my favourite part of Hall’s utilization is the fact he did not score — and Allen did. Ideally this leads folks to believe Allen is the preferred goal-line back. That’s not the case. Hall subbed out for Allen’s touchdown after moving the team down the field, but actually saw 3 of the team’s 4 snaps inside the 5-yard line (and a 2-point conversion attempt).

Hall will lose touchdown chances to Justin Fields, but Allen seems more like an occasional nuisance at the goal-line rather than an intentionally-installed short yardage hammer.

The most important takeaways however has nothing to do with utilization. Every time Breece received a touch he looked absolutely electric — similar to how anyone would have felt watching him in his first two seasons. And perhaps even more importantly, this whole offense looked phenomenal.

I’m admittedly not a huge Justin Fields fan. I think he’s quite limited as a processor and his very sensitive to pressure. However, he has very obvious strengths: he’s an elite rusher, has a very strong arm, and is actually pretty accurate when he sees an open receiver.

For too much of Fields’ career, coaches have tried to force him to improve his weaknesses to fit their scheme. It seemed like the Jets new play caller, Tanner Engstrand (previously of the Lions), actually built a system that emphasized Fields’ strengths and mitigated his weaknesses.

I don’t think that will be as easy to accomplish every week in every game script, but I am generally buying that this offense can have sustained success as a run-heavy, dual-threat operation with Fields able to hit shots down the field on play-action and on the move where the reads are simplified.

I will add that as good as the design was, I thought Fields also looked better in his more standard drop backs as well. I think it’s undoubtedly helpful that these were few and far between, surrounded by plenty of easy buttons. I would be trying to trade for Fields, Garrett Wilson, and Hall in all formats if their managers are looking forward to a sell window.

Who do they play next week by the way? The Bills — that’s right. They play the defense which just got absolutely pulverized by the perfected version of the Jets offensive game plan.

In sum:

• Breece Hall’s role was better than we expected

• His role was better than it looks in terms of snap data

• He played so well his role improved in-game, and should improve week-to-week

• The Jets offense looked not only competent but unstoppable, and should have continued success

If we were drafting today I would rank Hall as a top-24 pick rest-of-season.

Anyhow, that’s 2100 words down and 31 backfields to go…. so maybe let’s get moving here.

Seattle Seahawks

This was probably the split I was most wrong on in Week 1. While I expressed my uncertainty in the preview column, my gut feel remained that we’d see Walker largely retain his workhorse role from the last two seasons. That confidence greatly reduced on Sunday Morning when we saw a report that Charbonnet would work in tandem with Walker and may even start the game.

By drive 2, it was full blown panic as Charbonnet was celebrating in the end zone after his 7th carry of the day — to just 2 for Walker.

The split evened out from there with the following sequencing notes:

• Walker started Drive 1, which lasted just 4 plays before a punt

• Charbonnet started Drive 2, which lasted 10 plays and ended in a Charbonnet TD run (Walker subbed in partway through for a breather carry)

• Walker started each of Drives 3 and 4, but both were 3-and-outs

• Charbonnet played the end-of-half 2MD, which lasted 8 plays

This sequencing effect led to Charbonnet ending the half with a 2:1 snaps advantage, despite playing as the lead back on just one of four drives, in addition to his typical role as the LDD/2MD back.

In the second half, Walker again started the first drive — but it was a 3-and-out. The two backs rotated starting each drive from there, with the other back rotating in on the two that lasted beyond a series or two. Notably, Walker even rotated in on the team’s final two-minute drill once the team reached the red zone. The end result was a 50/50 snap share in the second half and a 30-21 split in favour of Charbonnet overall. Touches were 12 carries and 0 targets for Charbonnet vs. 10 carries and 3 targets for Walker.

Compared to the overall snap shares and especially the first-half snap shares, things are not as dire for Walker as they seem. Compared to the role Walker had last year or his ADP, things are quite bad.

Rest-of-season I would still prefer Walker straight up, but if we were drafting today I’d place Walker in the Round 6/7 range and Charbonnet in the Round 7/8 range.

My reasoning for still preferring Walker is the long-view angle to their respective profiles. One week of usage is not enough for me to concede that Walker is not the more talented and explosive back. However, he did not do anything to prove himself this week, turning 10 carries and 3 targets into 24 yards. From what I watched, there was very little room to run, and Walker tends not to minimize damage in those situations, which can make a bad day worse. If they are able to get their run game sorted, he also turns open lanes into house calls far more often than Zach Charbonnet is capable of.

For what it’s worth, Charbonnet had 7 carries for 24 yards on their lone TD drive in the opening script. After that he just had 5 carries the rest of the game (for 23 yards), so it’s not like they ran particularly effectively with either back on the field.

And that’s probably my larger concern. The Seahawks were just as run-focused as they’d let on in the pre-season (-14% PROE), but they didn’t run the ball well. Sam Darnold also struggled, and the result was just 50 plays run on offense and 13 points against a defense I would still project to wind up as a bottom 10 unit.

Basically, my advise would be to sell high on Charbonnet if anyone thinks he’s taken over as the workhorse back. But otherwise hold both. I’m not buying Walker due to my systemic concerns about the offense and his disconcerting role, but I wouldn’t sell for a massive discount either because I think the extent of his demise is likely over-stated at the moment.

Cleveland Browns

Now we’re back on favourable terrain in terms of our pre-week 1 predictions. I made Sampson the cover boy of the Week 1 preview, and projected him for a larger role than was widely projected. He came through with 17.3 PPR points.

Most of this came via the passing game where Sampson caught 8 balls for 64 yards. This matches with our evaluation of Sampson both pre-draft and pre-season that he had better receiving skills than he was capable of showing in a Tennessee offense that features a lot of pre-determined throws via RPOs and WR-screens.

You wouldn’t know it from the box score, but Jerome Ford did play more snaps (41-33) and run more routes (27-16). However, Sampson out-touched the veteran 20 to 7. He won’t command a 50% TPRR every week, but the majority of his receiving game touches occurred very quickly. There was one screen and several swing passes that Joe Flacco got to so immediately they almost felt like first-reads or based on something Flacco saw pre-snap. The teams was clearly trying to get the ball in his hands in space with intent.

They could not run the ball effectively with either back, but outside of maybe one run I didn’t see much to fault Sampson for in that area. Their short passing game with Sampson and Fannin was essentially their substitute for the run.

In those passing situations, Sampson looked incredibly fluid. He picked a ball that was thrown at the turf, and showed perfect timing to calibrate his gait in order to catch multiple swings in stride. I know that sounds silly but it’s a legitimate skill to be running essentially parallel to the ball, flip your hips, and pace yourself to catch the ball fluidly in the best position to make plays after the catch. Sampson showed that and it’s a reason he was able to consistently generate yardage on these swings. He also broke several tackles and looked elusive.

For any future games he starts without Quinshon Judkins you can safely fire up Sampson as an RB2. But I think he will retain a pass-catching and change-of-pace role even when Judkins gets up to speed.

I’d rank them both in the RB25-30 range rest-of-season. Jerome Ford is a pass-pro back at best when the two are healthy, and is not even startable if Judkins remains out or gets suspended down the line. You can drop him.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Not only do we have Sunday games to react to here but we have a trade!!!

Tank Bigsby has been dealt to the Philadelphia Eagles (see next section), which leaves us with a clarified Jaguars backfield. Much to our surprise, the Jaguars made all four backs active in Week 1 — which felt like an extended try out for the RB2-4 slots.

Travis Etienne Jr. was the clear RB1, playing 40 of 66 snaps overall — and a much higher percentage before the game was well out of reach. Notably, he looked quite good — the highlight being a 71-yard rush, which featured a nice evaded tackle cut back just past the sticks. But he added some more nice chunk gains late in the game. It was a legitimately impressive performance.

Behind him there was a rotation. LeQuint Allen Jr. played 9 snaps — 8 of which were on 3rd downs. Tuten and Bigsby were the early down backups, and most of Bigsby’s work came after Etienne exited the game.

Going forward this seems quite easy to project in the short term. Etienne is the lead back, and is an every-week RB2 for as long as this role remains. Tuten is a priority handcuff, who now has a much clearer opportunity to work his way into more touches as the season moves along. Allen is an LDD specialist who is multiple injuries away from starting value.

All that being said, I’m going to stand by my prediction that Tuten is the back to roster over the second-half of this season. We were never playing for Week 1 when it comes to a day 3 pick. While Etienne looked quite good, the team trading away Bigsby is a vote of confidence that they want Tuten to have a role. The fact he’ll now be set to see a handful of touches each game is huge of his odds of accelerating the timeline of his ascent.

Make no mistake: Etienne controls his destiny in this backfield as the current starter. If he continues to play the way he did in Week 1, he will hold the job all year. If his play falls off over the course of the season like it has in 2022 and 2023, Tuten will have an opening — and he’ll be on the field every week with a chance to prove he needs more looks.

If we were re-drafting today, I would draft Etienne in the Round 6/7 range, and Tuten in the Round 7/8 range.

Philadelphia Eagles

We’re going to start moving a little more quickly here for the rest of the way with some of the major backfield shake ups out of the way.

Saquon Barkley was the workhorse (no surprise) but was notably less efficient than last season. Rushing efficiency was down through much of the NFL in Week 1, including for several elite backs, so we won’t look too far into it. But it’s worth monitoring given the history of backs coming off his 2024 workload.

Will Shipley worked into the offense on each of the first two drives, and looked excellent (26 yards on 3 carries). Unfortunately he sustained a rib injury in the game and exited early. Prior to the Bigsby trade he looked like a player with elite contingent upside and a weekly role that could give you occasional useable weeks in best ball.

Apparently the Bigsby trade was not related to Shipley’s injury and was more related to Bigsby’s kick returning ability. Whether that’s the case or not, we are now staring down a likely committee in the event of a Barkley injury.

If and when Shipley is healthy he still makes much more sense as the complement to Barkley since he’s a better pass catcher, but Bigsby is the superior inside rusher, and could take on a between-the-tackles and goal-line role next to Shipley if Barkley misses time. Neither backup needs to be rostered in shallow redraft formats where you want to prioritize bench running backs with either elite contingent value or a standalone flex-worthy role.

Dallas Cowboys

Jaydon Blue was a surprise (to me at least) inactive, which left the Cowboys with just Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders at running back, in addition to Hunter Luepke and Kavonte Turpin as occasional backfield participants.

Williams posted highest ROE% of the week — getting what was blocked consistently. But he also posted just 3.6 YPC and had a long play of 11 yards. His line was indistinguishable from backs like D’Andre Swift and Omarion Hampton — each of whom also played in island games and both of whom were mocked for inefficiency throughout on twitter.

The real reason everyone talked positively about Javonte Williams is that he scored 2 rushing TDs — each from the 1-yard line. To his credit, he set one of those up with the aforementioned 11-yard run, while the other succeeded a long Lamb catch where he was tackled just short of the end zone.

If you drafted Williams you have every right to be pleased that he projects for an RB2 workload in the near-term. But I’ll need to see a lot more before I declare him “back.”

Miles Sanders had the lone explosive rush of the game for Dallas, but it was hardly a highlight. He was easily caught from behind by Zach Baun — who is a pro-bowl level linebacker but still runs a 4.65. Sanders then fumbled on his next opportunity on the same drive after the long run, so the team got nothing out of it.

I was of the mindset early in summer that the gap in price between Williams and Sanders was arbitrary and both were equally strong bets to serve as the “early-season veteran.” But clearly Williams won that battle, and if anything the gap should be wider between them next week. I would cut Sanders in all formats.

If there is a threat to Williams the source of that threat will be Jaydon Blue. In comparison to the Jaguars backfield, I have far less faith in Blue than Tuten — and the team scratching Blue Week 1 is a bearish signal. But as much as I’m skeptical of Etienne, I’m infinitely more skeptical of Williams. The threshold for Blue to carve out a meaningful role is not that high — nor is the threshold required to reduce Williams’ volume to a point he’s no longer a viable start.

I hope we see Blue activated this week, and potentially see Sanders as a healthy inactive in the weeks shortly following, leaving room for Blue to set his sights on a committee with Williams. We’ll play this one week by week — but I would want to hold Blue in redraft if you can.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Before providing any real analysis we just have to admit that Arthur Smith playing Kenneth Gainwell as his lead running back the same week they signed Jaylen Warren to a $21M contract extension and 4 months after selecting Kaleb Johnson on Day 2 of the NFL is incredible self parody. We braced ourselves for the idiocy of playing Gainwell as the primary LDD back in our preview column, but we did not anticipate the terrifying reality that the Eagles-cast off would lead the team in running back snaps.

Naturally, Gainwell turned 7 carries and 4 targets into 23 yards. This is why you don’t build your offense around Kenneth fucking Gainwell in 2025. Be serious.

Equally naturally, in perfect Pittsburgh Steeler fashion, Gainwell made the most important play of the game — forcing a kick-off return fumble as a special teams gunner after the Steelers had just closed the score to 26-24.

Getting into the substance of the matter, I have a bit of a contrarian take on this backfield. The major takeaway I saw was that Kaleb Johnson is completely buried (2 snaps, 1 carry, -2 yards — he fumbled a kick off as well but it was recovered by the Steelers).

That’s true of course in the short-term but I actually came away from this game more bearish on Warren than Johnson long-term.

If they weren’t willing to give Warren a true bell-cow role (or even a clear lead role) while Johnson was put on ice, what is the realistic upside here? The odds he pushes Gainwell out, while keeping Johnson from cutting into any of Gainwell’s voided touches is a difficult parlay to hit as the veteran in this offense.

For what it’s worth, there is absolutely zero reason he shouldn’t touch the ball way more than Gainwell — and he did perform better in this game with 11-37 ; 2-22 and a receiving touchdown.

The complicating factor for everyone involved (most of all me) is how the roles were distributed. Warren essentially played the 2022-2023 Najee Harris role, while Gainwell played every LDD snap and mixed in as a change-of-pace on early downs as well. Kaleb Johnson is only a realistic option for early-down work. This means his most realistic path requires Warren to shift back to his old role and Johnson to take Warren’s.

I think we get there eventually given Warren has a long history of being a strong LDD option — but it makes matters unnecessarily complicated and we might have to deal with a 3-way committee at some point as the transition happens.

In any outcome, the amount of Gainwell usage we got today was so absurd, and was so inefficient, it just cannot be projected to sustain.

Washington Commanders

The big early-day storyline was when Chris Rodriguez Jr. was announced as a healthy inactive. While we prepared for this possibility in the preview, we didn’t think it was particularly likely.

However, as a person who spent several paragraphs outlining just how much Chris Rodriguez should not be on anyone’s mind, it was pretty gratifying.

Austin Ekeler got the start and played the most snaps overall, but Croskey-Merritt started the first two drives of the 2nd-quarter. He capped off the second of those drives with a touchdown. He continued to rotate in evenly with Ekeler on early downs for the rest of the day thereafter, with the latter playing as the LDD/2MD back. On the final drive of the game, JCM broke off a highly impressive 42-yard run, which effectively sealed the game. Jeremy McNichols saw 3 of his 4 carries after that run — when the game was in hand.

In the end, JCM saw 10 carries and 1 target while Ekeler saw 6 carries and 3 targets.

At present I feel strongly about my pre-season read on this backfield. Ekeler is a satellite back who is a viable bye-week flex and best ball option. JCM is the best start in the backfield and the expected lead rusher. He should be viewed as a low-end RB2 for now with some potential for more if he keeps impressing. We shouldn’t concern ourselves much with McNichols or Rodriguez unless one of the other two get hurt.

New York Giants

This backfield was largely in line with our Week 1 expectations. Tyrone Tracy Jr. was the clear leader, while Singletary and Skattebo split backup duties.

If you’re a Tracy supporter, you’re hoping things remain status quo for as long as possible.

If you’re a Skattebo bull, here are two feathers for your cap: (1) Tracy failed to make a positive impression in his first week as the clear leader in the backfield — turning 10 carries and 5 targets into 35 yards. I’m not assigning much blame to Tracy for this output because Russell Wilson tanked this entire offense. But Tracy needs to make plays early in the season or his role will get squeezed. (2) Skattebo received the team’s lone goal-line carry though he didn’t convert. This goal-line carry was part of a hilarious sequence of eight consecutive plays inside the 10-yard line — including a defensive holding on a failed 4th down. The Giants wound up kicking a FG from the 2-yard line to close out that sequence like a very serious football team.

Tracy is a volume-based RB2 until further notice. Let’s hope for his sake they move on from Wilson before Skattebo cuts into his workload.

New England Patriots

This backfield rotation was similar to our expectations in result, but different in process. The Patriots abandoned their pre-season situational usage pattern and instead rotated Stevenson and Henderson in a situation-ambivalent manner. Stevenson played just under double the total snaps, but Henderson had more touches (5 carries and 6 targets) and was much more efficient.

All in all it’s a strong start for Henderson. He has a startable role out of the gate, and is already proving to be the more effective back. Let’s hope for movement toward a 50-50 split in snaps within the next couple of weeks, and we can see how high the ceiling climbs from there.

Denver Broncos

This backfield went partly how we expected with Dobbins playing just under double Harvey’s total snaps. However, the team used a third back — Tyler Badie — more than anticipated.

Badie’s snaps occured almost entirely in LDD and the 2MD, but he received 6 targets. I view his usage as a knock on both Dobbins and Harvey’s target ceiling near-term, but a larger knock on Dobbins long-term since he’s less likely to grow his situational usage over the course of the season.

For most of the game neither Dobbins or Harvey had anything going. That changed in the 4th-quarter when Harvey produced a 50-yard run, which was one of the most impressive of the day. He had to navigate traffic early in the run but stayed patient, made a cut, and sprinted into daylight with his trademark burst. I’m not sure how many other backs get a 50-yard chunk on the play.

Dobbins subbed in after Harvey’s big run, and converted his own explosive touchdown.

I expect Harvey to bring this closer to 50-50 in the coming weeks so long as he continues to look good.

My larger concern was the Bo Nix looked quite bad throughout this game. It’s only week 1, but I thought Nix produced better than he played for much of his rookie season, so I’m a touch nervous about the ceiling of this offense.

The combination of Badie consolidating passing work (6 of 9 total RB targtets) and Nix’s struggles make me a little lower on this backfield as a whole than I was before the week.

Los Angeles Chargers

Here’s the last of the top rookie running backs we’ll discuss today. Omarion Hampton absolutely dominated touches — but struggled to create much against a tough Kansas City run defense. I’ve watched each carry and I thought Hampton lacked patience, often plunging into the line without giving plays a chance to develop. But when he did have space to operate he showed off his elite size-speed combination. This largely matches my view of him on tape and why I had him ranked as my IRL RB5 in the class.

But he was my dynasty RB2 because the combination of draft capital, size, speed, pass-catching, and workload history make him a very safe bet for production.

We didn’t get much production in Week 1 but I am confident there are better days to come.

As for Najee Harris, he was eased into the lineup to say the least (2 touches), but Jim Harbaugh said he was capped at 12 snaps and might see more work later on. I doubt this ever comes close to a 50-50, but it’s likely to be more of a 70-30 than the 90-10 we saw Week 1.

Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco’s return to a workhorse role proved not to be in the cards. He was the clear early-down back, but Hunt mixed in along with Brashard Smith. Hunt also played every short yardage snap and dominated LDD work — though Pacheco played most of the 2MD.

The Chiefs don’t run the ball much and Pacheco is not an elite talent. So you really do need the HVT-profile to want him in your lineups. I’m not convinced Hunt needs to maintain any sort of role, but Pacheco is a flex play until further notice. This poor usage for Pacheco and the fact Smith mixed in throughout the game (as early as the second play) is bullish for the 7th-round rookie. I’d make him a priority stash off the waiver wire.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving averaged just 2.6 YPC in this game — which is far off the elite efficiency we’d been accustomed to last year. But for what it’s worth he did have the 3rd-highest ROE% on the week, which suggests there was not much room to run. I’ll admit I have not had the chance to watch every snap of this yet but I will before Saturday.

What I can say is the team seemed to struggle overall, and we might want to knock this offense in our expectations for at least as long as Tristan Wirfs is out. Between Wirfs, Coen, Godwin and McMillan, they’re down a lot of major contributors from 2024.

The great news for Irving is that my assumptions on his role relative to White’s were proven 100% correct. He played 27 early down snaps to just 2 for White and played the majority of the 2MD. White was limited to a LDD back only, and Irving out-touched him 18-3.

The highlight for the 2nd-year man came on a receiving touchdown where he made an acrobatic play to scale the sideline and stretch the ball to the post. It’s hard to watch that play and be too concerned about his efficiency as any statement on his talent.

Atlanta Falcons

Robinson played 63 of 76 snaps, which is far better usage than you might think when you see he only led 12-10 in carries. Allgeier played 19 snaps — including 6 snaps with both RBs playing together, which is a new wrinkle.

While Robinson did little on the ground, he put up 7-6-100-1 through the air to carry him to an RB1 performance. I’m perfectly happy with that workload and would be surprised if the carries are that close in future weeks if the snap share remains the same.

That line included an elite TD from distance, which is the exact kind of explosive play Robinson has struggled to produce the last two years. Seeing him show that upside made me immediately nervous about not ranking him as my RB1 overall.

Robinson was one of the several elite backs with poor efficiency Week 1 on the ground and I don’t lay it at his feet. But I am getting increasingly concerned about Atlanta’s offensive line play after losing Kaleb McGary for the season. It’s something to monitor.

Arizona Cardinals

This backfield included a fun little shift. Emari Demercado was entirely phased out as the team allowed Trey Benson to play the LDD role. Conner still out-snapped him 35-12 on early downs, but Benson was given 8 carries — including one which he turned into a massive play up the sidelines flashing the open-field creativity I loved in college.

It’s quite nice for fantasy managers they’ve found a way to increase Benson’s snap share while keeping Conner in the same role he had last season. If anything I’d use Benson’s viral play as a buy-low chance for Conner — who should have better efficiency weeks ahead of him. (If the low efficiency continues I’ll get scared, but for now I’m giving a near universal pass to all the proven good backs who were inefficient in Week 1)

For Benson, he’s a desperation flex play short term, but it’s very encouraging that he has an improved role and made some nice plays. His contingent value gets a big boost if the team now trusts him on passing downs. His dynasty value is live again.

Houston Texans

Nick Chubb led the way with 13 carries, and was shockingly efficient with 60 yards. For what it’s worth he had +0.86 RYOE/A and forced 4 missed tackles.

There’s no reason for him to be giving this role back based on anything he or anyone else did in Week 1 — but the Texans offense looked completely anemic and unable to block anyone. Chubb is a TD-dependent flex without any passing-game value on an offense we should be concerned about.

Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks split the remainder of the early-down snaps (7) and carries (3) exactly evenly. Neither did anything of note.

Dare Ogunbawale is somehow still in the NFL and played in all LDD and 2MD situations. He then fumbled the ball on the final drive of the game as they attempted to drive for a game-winning TD. If he were to lose this role, Marks is the most likely replacement.

For now, Chubb can be started if you’re desperate and Marks is a reasonable bench stash in deep leagues.

Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry is not included within the group of inefficient RBs in Week 1. He looks fantastic and will be an elite RB1 option for as long as he’s healthy.

The surprising news here was Keaton Mitchell being a healthy inactive. John Harbaugh stated that this was because there would only be room to give him “designer” touches alongside Henry and Hill, and he was not providing as much on special teams as Rasheen Ali — who was activated in front of him but had no material role on offense.

Mitchell still holds contingent value in the event of a Henry injury but there are likely better stashes on the wire.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills ran a whopping 85 plays — yet James Cook played 56% of snaps, even in negative script. This is a really strong result for Cook — who was typically under 50% in the second-half of last year.

He saw 13 carries and 5 targets and looked fantastic. Unfortunately, he missed out on two chances to score, having been tackled at the 2-yard line after a long catch and run, and then being stuffed at the 1-yard line later. Both times Josh Allen wound up with the rushing score.

I thought Cook was one of the underrated winners of Week 1 and if his bad variance at the goal-line makes him more available in trades I’d be sending out offers.

Ray Davis — aka the “best handcuff in fantasy” — saw just 2 touches on 10 snaps. He would be in a committee with Ty Johnson if Cook were to go down and has no standalone role. He’s a nice player but his off-season ADP remains perplexing to me.

Chicago Bears

D’Andre Swift dominated touches as expected while Kyle Monangai rotated in and Roschon Johnson sat with injury (if he is alive).

He was inefficient for most of the night, and generally looked non-threatening. But I’ll give him credit for one nice cut-back run followed by an elite power run where he trucked a defensive back for a first-down during a 3rd-quarter drive.

My views on Swift remain un-changed: the player is not as good as the role which hurts his ceiling and floor, but he’s a fine RB2 for the moment.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings rotated by drive during this game, which meant both Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones got run in all game situations. The Vikings did not run any goal-line plays but there was one tell that Mason might be the preferred goal-line back.

On a 2-point conversion, Jones was initially in the game for a shotgun pass play, but the Bears committed a penalty and the ball was moved to the 1-yard line. Mason then trotted onto the field in a jumbo package but they ran a play-action pass.

Jones did see plenty of short-yardage snaps in the field of play when he was already on the field.

Mason was the much more impressive rusher, and was really the catalyst for this offense waking up in the 2nd-half. However Jones saved his day with a gorgeous wheel-route TD.

I know Kevin O’Connell values consistency in the look he presents to the defense, but I am curious if they shift away from the drive-by-drive rotation over time and make Mason the clear lead rusher while maximizing Jones as a pass-catching back.

I would prefer Mason straight up rest-of-season right now, and view both as low-end RB2/Flexes rest-of-season.

New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara is the bell-cow here, but backup reps were discouragingly split between Kendre Miller (11 snaps) and Devin Neal (7 snaps). Both can be dropped outside of very deep leagues.

One note for concern on Kamara is that he saw just 2 targets on 49 drop backs. Kellen Moore historically has fewer schemed touches in his offense than most offensive coordinators, and early on the pass-game was focused on their receivers and Juwan Johnson.

I don’t want to over-react to one week, but if Kamara is not racking up targets this season his value will be completely knee-capped. For now, I’d look to sell at his pre-season price if possible.

Carolina Panthers

This was a good result for Hubbard. He played 67% of snaps, and caught a 27-yard receiving TD — contradicting the fears his league-low YPRR would hurt his passing game appeal this season.

While Rico Dowdle mixed in plenty and played all LDD snaps, Hubbard got plenty of run in comeback mode (effectively a quarter-long 2MD) which is encouraging for his ability to be robust to game script. He’s a high-end RB2 for the immediate future.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals did not show up to play in Week 1 — as usual, and Brown’s efficiency was atrocious. But their RB rotation was exactly as we expected. Chase Brown played everything except for obvious passing situations. It’s not as strong of a role as he had late last year, but it is an equal role to what Joe Mixon produced on for years in this offense. He’s a low-end RB1 if we assume the Bengals wake up in the coming weeks.

Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor played the first 52 snaps of the game — read that again. Jonathan Taylor played the first 52 snaps of the game. He subbed off with an apparent minor injury and was apparently prepared to return to the game, but never did as the team had a massive lead. This allowed D.J. Giddens to get plenty of run to finish out the game.

Giddens remains a strong stash for his contingent upside, but Taylor might be an even stronger bet than previous years if he’s live to play literally 100% of snaps. For what it’s worth he had some of the best pass-pro reps I’ve seen from him, which supports his odds of retaining this literal every-down role.

Miami Dolphins

The early returns for Ollie Gordon steam chasers are not ideal, as De’Von Achane was the clear lead back. Achane looked quite effective with 55 rush yards on 7 carries, and an impressive receiving TD on a 4th down swing screen at the Colts’ 11-yard line. It was an insane play call that only worked because of Achane’s effort.

If you are a Gordon enthusiast, you can take solace in the fact that this offense struggled in Week 1 and will be looking in any direction for possible improvement. The script of this game was also thrown out of whack due to early turnovers and the Colts ability to control the pace of play. Miami barely possessed the ball until it was effectively garbage time, which likely prevented any chance they may have had to establish Gordon as a factor in the game plan.

For now he’s a contingency-only stash but with some room to grow.

Detroit Lions

We nailed our usage prediction here last week. Jahmyr Gibbs got the start, and even began drive 2 for the Lions. He nearly doubled Montgomery in snaps overall.

Unfortunately, the Lions looked like a disaster and neither back had any room to operate. We’ll see if the snap split remains this wide in more competitive script.

The other aspect which looks good for Gibbs if his efficiency is able to recover was that the increased pass-game usage theory appears live. He had 10 receptions on 10 targets.

Whether the Gibbs RB1 season happens depends on whether the Lions potential offensive regression hits as hard all season as it did in Week 1, or whether Gibbs can transcend any potential systemic issues with his talent. We look like we are getting the role change we needed so far.

Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs — workhorse RB1. Every other Packers RB — don’t roster them.

Tennessee Titans

One more correct prediction for us: Tony Pollard led all running backs in snap rate this week. Until we see signs of life from Cam Ward and this offense however he remains more of a volume-based RB2 rather than an RB1.

San Francisco 49ers

For as long as Christian McCaffrey is active, he is the RB1 overall.