Week 2 Sunday Drive

Hello and welcome to the Week 2 Sunday Drive. In this piece, we’ll walk through the usage and performance in notable backfields across the NFL, as well as any injuries that could shift the balance of touches moving forward.

Last week we did my Week 1 “level set” column — in which we went through every single backfield in varying detail. From here forward we will leave some backfields to the side if there are no notable changes — particularly backfields involving an obvious workhorse. If I don’t spend much time on a backfield today it’s because my view on it remains unchanged from the previous week's article.

Typically this column will come out on Tuesdays, but since there was so much more I wanted to hit, I wrote up some more broad thoughts Tuesday morning, along with my waiver priority list. That pushed the RB column back a day, and you can check that out here:

Before I get into the Sunday Drive I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that we hit quite the milestone on the channel this week of 1,000 paid subscribers. Obviously the monetary value makes a huge impact in my life, but beyond that the fact you folks are willing to spend your hard-earned money and time supporting my work is really incredibly gratifying. I know how much my favourite creators mean to my enjoyment of various sports or hobbies and it thrills me that I’m part of how you experience each football season.

I won’t get too self-involved or mushy about it, but please know how much I appreciate it, and how much that keeps me motivated to do this — even when I’m often writing in between long days at a real job and I’m tempted to simply turn on a movie instead. Your support is inspiring and keeps me wanting to do that and keep getting better at it to help you all in your leagues. Most of all, please let me know how I can make the content even better!

Alright, now let’s rock.

Metrics Legend:

From Pro Football Focus

PFF Grade / PFF Rushing Grade = Qualitative Film Grade assigned by Pro Football Focus

Snaps, Routes, and Carries data provided by Nathan Jahnke

From NFL NextGen Stats

RYOE/A = Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt (NFL Next Gen Stats)

ROE% = Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats)

From the FantasyPoints Data Suite

YAC/A = Yards After Contact per Attempt

YBC/A = Yards Before Contact per Attempt

MTF/A = Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt

EXP%: Percentage of rushes of 15+ yards

YPRR: Yards per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

TPRR: Targets per Route Run [from PFF in previous seasons]

Other Terminology

HVT: High Value Touches (receptions and carries inside the 10)

LDD: Long Down and Distance situations — 3rd and 5+

2MD: Two-Minute Drill

The Week 2 Sunday Drive

Part 1 — Injuries, Returns and Fallout

Cleveland Browns

We’ll kick things off with the Cleveland Browns who welcomed Quinshon Judkins to the fold. Apparently the NFL’s investigation remains ongoing, which means this situation will remain fluid — though I think the chance of suspension remains solidly under 50%.

That’s great news to Judkins managers. While I was skeptical of him as a prospect and bearish on him when he was under criminal investigation, I was shocked how far he fell late in drafts even after the charges were dropped. I’m fortunate to have a decent bag in Main Events based largely on good timing because he looks like he could be a big hit from the late rounds.

Before the game it was stated that Judkins would only play 10-15 snaps. He beat that at 19 — but saw 13 touches, got the start, and led the team in carries. There is no ambiguity that the team wants Judkins to be their feature back.

He looked fantastic — especially considering it was his first career game and he’d barely been with the team. His stats were buoyed a bit by a long run late with backups in the game, but it was a heck of a run nonetheless. On 10 carries, he led all backs in MTF% and YAC/att this week.

His role will obviously scale up in future weeks and you can probably consider him as a starter as early as this coming game. What will decide whether he is a moderate or massive hit is how much he is able to play while the team trails. A 2-down rusher profile on a team that will frequently play from way behind will be volatile week-to-week and difficult to trust.

On one hand, doesn’t have a great pass-catching or pass-protection profile from college so it’s hard to see him gaining work in that sphere immediately especially with suitable options alongside him. But then you see how much the Browns prioritized him in this game, and how desperate they are to have any player worth building their team around, and you wonder whether this is a situation where they just decide that he’s their guy and they’ll give him all he can handle across the board. It’s not a bad idea given the limited aspirations of this team in the present day.

For now, that passing game back is Jerome Ford. He saw twice as many snaps as Judkins, but fewer touches — and much of his usage came on check downs in the 2nd-half when the team was chasing points. Ford is trusted by the team in LDD situations and catch up mode, but the team has used him as a snap eater early in the year rather than someone they are prioritizing. Provided the team eventually feels it can rely on either Judkins, Sampson or both in pass protection, Ford should fade from this offense entirely over time and I expect that will happen sooner rather than later.

Unfortunately for Sampson, he fell by the wayside despite a very impressive debut playing just 18 snaps and seeing 7 touches in Week 2. Luckily those of us who started him somewhere were bailed out with a late TD. As a note of irony, his stock has fallen a ton in the past week and yet he currently leads all rookie RBs in scoring.

If Judkins were to get hurt or suspended, Sampson moves right back into the starting conversation. But for the moment he looks squeezed. The team doesn’t trust him enough yet to handle a full-time passing down role and Judkins is their clear lead guy on the ground. His best path to relevance is to push Ford out of the way on passing downs, but it’s not a guarantee that happens, nor is it a guarantee he’d get that role rather than Judkins subsuming the entire backfield. The hope was he’d at least retain an early-down role as Judkins worked up to speed, but that transition phase seems to have ended abruptly.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK

Quinshon Judkins — immediate low-end RB2 with high-end RB2 upside by mid-season as role expands.

Dylan Sampson — bench player for now, with potential to work back into flex consideration depending on pass-game role

Jerome Ford — cut

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones went down with a hamstring injury late in this game and has been placed on I.R. This is unfortunately one of several late-career injuries for Jones, and threatens to derail the first half of his 2025 season.

The obvious beneficiary here is Jordan Mason and he will contend to be the top-ranked streamer on the stock watch over the next month.

Mason and Jones have largely rotated 50/50 playing interchangeable snaps thus far. However the team naturally plays a bit more pass heavy with Jones in the game, utilizing his receiving ability, while Mason has been the featured downhill runner.

While the two backs have complementary skillsets, this is not a strictly divided backfield by situation. They also have no other plausible back to take on Jones’s workload. Therefore, I suspect we can safely project Mason to play 75%+ snaps for at least the next month.

Mason was a very impressive runner last year on the 49ers and has looked fantastic this season in Minnesota. I think the shift to Carson Wentz short-term while J.J. McCarthy misses time with an ankle injury is probably a net benefit given how the latter has looked so far.

I bet we also see a slight target share increase to the WRs and TEs because Mason is not a pass-catching back whatsoever even if I now expect him to play a lot of receiving snaps. Kevin O’Connell’s offenses never through much to the back pre-Aaron Jones and I suspect this will look more like the Rams where running back targets are few and far between.

The RB2 role now comes down to Zavier Scott and the newly-signed Cam Akers. I think Akers is the favourite there given his familiarity with Kevin O’Connell over several seasons now between Minnesota and Los Angeles. I don’t think he will offer much fantasy value however.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK

Jordan Mason — immediate high-end RB2, chance to cement lead role rest-of-season

Aaron Jones — cut in shallow leagues. Best case is an RB2/Flex upon return unless Mason suffers an injury.