Week 4 Streamer Stock Watch

And Five Backfields I expect to Change in the Second Half of the Season

Hey folks,

Just as we do every Saturday morning we’re going to run through the ‘Streamer Stock Watch’ here at the bottom of the page — ranking every back for this Sunday, plus notes on their dynasty value that started the year outside the Top 100 in ADP.

If you want further detail on where to evaluate RBs this week and going forward, check out this week’s Sunday Drive:

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But before getting into that I want to touch briefly on backfields I think will look much different without an injury in the latter half of the season based on what we’ve seen thus far. So much of the early season fantasy process is reactive, which makes sense. We went into the year with certain priors, and then we’re getting new inputs at a rapid pace to consider, and the common reaction is simply to throw out any of our previous takes and adopt the latest information as the most predictive sample.

On aggregate, that’s right more often than not. For instance, after 4 weeks of the season (we’re almost there!) seasonal fantasy PPG becomes more predictive of rest-of-season results than seasonal ADP. However, think back to all our pre-season work, and how often we discussed situations we expected to change over time. It seems harder to imagine those shifts when you are consumed by the present, but those shifts will indeed happen.

If you need a refresher, here are some examples from last year:

Miles Sanders was coming off a 65-percent snap share going into Week 4 last year. He would be out-snapped in the ensuing game by Chuba Hubbard, and never regained the starting role.

Dameon Pierce lasted a little longer — posting 44 carries in Weeks 4 and 5, but his role trailed off after that into a full-blown committee, and we has eventually “Wally Pipped” by Devin Singletary after suffering an injury and returning in a backup role.

Other backfields took longer to turn, but Alexander Mattison was the league’s most inefficient workhorse at this time. The Vikings tried out Cam Akers for a while, before eventually riding Ty Chandler down the stretch.

These three examples were a bit easier to see coming since all were quite inefficient in the early part of the season, and the type of back you’d expect to get phased out after coaches eventually wanted their run plays to have more success. We’ll get to a few examples I think might see a similar fate this year in a moment, but there were also more subtle shifts for backs that appeared to be in better shape.

For instance, Zack Moss was lighting the world on fire in his early-season stint as the lead RB for the Colts, but was rather inefficient when he got a second chance at the workhorse gig after Jonathan Taylor suffered a second injury.

D’Andre Swift scored 14.8 or more PPR points for five straight games Weeks 2-6, but hit that mark only two more games the whole season. He was rushing efficiently and effectively… and then he wasn’t.

These two examples stand out as backs who had a history of poor rushing efficiency, and wound up reverting toward the larger sample.

Travis Etienne started the year red hot, putting concerns that Tank Bigsby would cut into his workload to bed, before fading down the stretch as D’Ernest Johnson took on the extra touches.

Perhaps the biggest example going the other way is Jahmyr Gibbs. I recently re-read what I wrote after a Week 4 Thursday Night Football game in which he was ‘pantsed’ by David Montgomery causing mass panic in the fantasy streets. You can paste in the comments several examples of bad takes (see: anything I wrote about Kyren Williams this summer) if you like, but I’m quite pleased with this one. First off, I got the actionable part correct — that I would still draft Gibbs > Montgomery — something that was a very un-popular take at the time. I also went through Gibbs’ real, present flaws as a complete RB, but emphasized that part of the bet on young players is that they get better over the course of the season — it’s not just that coaches eventually have an apple fall on their head and start playing the better back. Sure enough, Gibbs did play substantially better as an all-around player over the course of the year and while Montgomery maintained (and still maintains) a large role, Gibbs was one of the leading characters of the second half of fantasy football in 2023.

There are several more examples; the point is that objects in motion do not always stay in motion, and that we do not necessarily have to throw out all pre-season concerns or the longer view profile, just because a player is hitting (or not hitting) in the first 3 games.

Here are a few backfields where I think change is likely or at least highly plausible — without necessitating an injury over the latter half of 2024: (I’ve intentionally left out backfield with a pre-existing injury a player is expected to return from)

I will also note that there are some spots such as the Cardinals or Rams (among a couple others) where a young player is currently buried, and the starter is playing well enough that an injury may be required — but I think even a short-term injury could provide an opportunity for Trey Benson, or even more likely Blake Corum to show out in their chance and earn a larger role when the starter returns.

Obligatory Note: Kyren Williams ranks 40th of 42 backs in MTF/att, 33rd in YAC/att and 37th out of 42 in RYOE/att… I’m not going to keep writing major sections about him since I get him so consistently wrong and you don’t want to hear from me about it but he’s not been good this year on the ground, and the team should give Corum a chance

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STATISTICAL NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

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SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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Chicago Bears

This is the free space on the bingo card, given the change has been widely reported to start this week.

Swift has been downright horrendous as the Bears RB1. He ranks dead last in RYOE/att and YAC/att, and 39th in MTF/att. His traditional stats look as bad as the advanced ones, and the film looks worse than both — if that’s possible.

I’ll admit to having been Swift-curious this year (best ball only) from the standpoint that he has some fantasy-friendly skills despite his obvious deficiencies, and I (wrongly) thought this offense would be good enough that he may get brought along based on his shiny contract.

The contract-thesis was right in the sense that he had a very good role to start the season. He’s just been so bad that he’s about to get lapped immediately. As a lifelong D’Andre Swift hater — 2024 best ball exposure notwithstanding — I do see this as a win for RB-isolating metrics. Swift has only ever played behind elite offensive lines, and been given friendly usage profiles, which has made it a more complicated case that he’s a poor rusher than with other common punching bags such as Najee Harris or Rachaad White. But now playing behind a poor offensive line, he’s just compounding the problems based on his F-tier field vision, lack of physicality, and penchant for improvising the design of the play on the spot.

This has led the Bears to look elsewhere, mixing in Roschon Johnson for an expanded role in Week 3 (after playing 0 snaps on offense in Weeks 1-2), and apparently they are planning to give Johnson an “extended look” in Week 4.

Meanwhile they are maintaining that Khalil Herbert is the goal-line back, which… sure.

What should happen: Swift shouldn’t see the field with the possible exception of 2-3 screen passes per game as a 5-10 snap player. Herbert should be the primary rusher for as long as the game is close, and Johnson should serve as the complimentary back on early-downs and full-time LDD back. I would probably give the majority of short-yardage work to Johnson, and ensure Herbert is the one getting any potential ‘explosion’ runs like sweeps, draws, tosses etc.

What will happen: In the short term I take the team at their word, and expect to see a 50-50 split of early down work between Johnson and Swift, with Johnson playing LDD and Herbert the designated short yardage back. Maybe I shouldn’t put so much faith in Shane Waldron of all people, but the right answer is so obvious here that I think eventually you just admit to the sunk cost, and take Swift out of the plans entirely by mid-season. We should see some semblance of a 50-50 or 60-40 split with Johnson the more likely lead based on his versatile skillset and apparent lead over Herbert with the coaching staff at the moment.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This backfield has gone more or less as I expected so far — with White as the clear lead to start, and looking terrible in the run game, while Irving flashes in a smaller role. White ranks 40th in RYOE (-1.49), and 37th in YAC/att (1.65) so far — though he’s posted a fine enough 0.16 MTF/att (16th).

This computes for me, as White’s main issues are a lack of explosiveness (despite strong tested athleticism) and a lack of vision and decisiveness. It’s the latter issue that to me would make Bucky Irivng the better short-yardage back even though he’s of slighter frame. Irving for what it’s worth is at 0.20 MTF/att, and ranks 8th in YAC/att (3.00), and sits in the middle of the pack in RYOE/att (-0.09). I think the latter number appropriately accounts for the fact he’s had his biggest hits on well-blocked, creative runs, vs. the more traditional three-yards-in-a-cloud-of-dust type runs White has had to take on.

Still, even if he’s an explosive but average rusher, that’s better than an un-explosive and poor rusher.

What should happen: Irving handles the entire early-down RB role and White is relegated to LDD work only.

What will happen: Irving ramps up over time to handle 60% of rushes between the 20s, while White retains short yardage and LDD work.

Jacksonville Jaguars

This one proves that I’m not just spitting out my own priors. I had pretty much buried Bigsby after his rookie year — even though I liked him as a prospect. But he’s looked great to me in his two healthy games this year. He’s decisive, has consistently beat first contact, and has shown far greater burst to the edge than he did last season. That’s manifested on a couple big hits vs. Miami, and most recently on a terrific 4th-and-1 conversion in the second half of the Buffalo game.

I don’t think Etienne has been bad per se. In fact he sits at 0.55 RYOE/att, and 2.92 YAC/att (both well above average marks), but I do think he lacks a physical element between the tackles, and we’ve seen his efficiency fall off when forced to carry too big of a load over the last two seasons. The Jaguars have maintained that they’d prefer him in more of a 12-15 and 5 type role than a 20 carries per game type role and I’ve come to think that’s the best way to use him too. He also suffers by association as one of the key features of a unit that’s simply not getting it done.

I expect we see Doug Pederson and Press Taylor fired in-season this year, and giving more touches to the ‘bruising’ RB2 is the type of tone-setting move interim coaches love to make.

What should happen: Bigsby works into the ‘40’ half of a 60-40 split, with Etienne maintaining the passing down role. D’Ernest Johnson is phased out.

What will happen: I think we actually see exactly that. (Maybe a few too many Johnson 3rd and 8 snaps for my liking)

Cincinnati Bengals

If you’ve followed my writing in here — and especially in my Stealing Signals appearances this year — you know I’m somewhat of a Chase Brown centrist. I preferred him to Moss from jump (though I initially ranked them side-by-side). However, I was quite uncomfortable with his late-season rise above more proven backs in terms of talent, role, or both.

The result is that I was able to ride my early-season exposures to an above-market best ball position, but never took him in managed. Moss meanwhile is someone I’m underweight on in best ball (unfortunately) but wound up with quite a bit of in managed as one of my Zero-RB fixtures. (Part of this is just that I did all my managed drafts far later in the off-season)

To be clear, you’d rather have Moss right now rest-of-season, I’m not disputing that. But to be honest, Chase Brown has impressed me!

Zack Moss has been perfectly Zack Moss this season — pairing average marks in the tackle breaking metrics, with a poor (-0.49) RYOE/att. Chase Brown doesn’t yet qualify for RYOE, but I’d be stunned if it’s not in the positives. He current averages 7.4 YPC on 14 attempts, and all his work has been on early downs — these are not 3rd down draws. Sure, he’s not a physical presence, but he’s fast as hell and he looks like the type of back who can be a legitimate value adder before contact: think poor man’s Travis Etienne.

The Bengals are a conservative coaching staff, so it makes sense they’ve started the year riding the veteran in Moss. But this defense has proven to be bottom-tier has they’ve sputtered to an 0-3 start. They need to create explosive plays on offense to keep up in games, and I think they have to look to Brown to be a part of that. I’d also posit that to some extent they realize this: Brown’s had a high rate of touches per snap, and received 3 targets last game despite hardly running any routes. They want to get the ball in his hands — they just don’t quite trust him fully yet with the rest of the game.

I think we see him have one breakout game in the coming weeks where he houses a long play, and the coaching staff begins to feel internal pressure to force the issue from there.

What should happen: Zack Moss only plays LDD and short yardage, with Brown as the clear lead between the 20s.

What will happen: Brown forces a 50-50 split between the 20s, though Moss retains the LDD role and majority of goal-line work.

Los Angeles Chargers

This is a tricky one because evaluating the medium-long term outlook of JK Dobbins is impossible.

On the whole of the season, he’s been fantastic — posting the best RYOE/att in the league, and 3rd-best MTF/att. However, his ROE% is now down to just 33.3% after a poor Week 3 in a tough matchup. Is it just that? Or could he be slowing down? We can’t know for sure. Also, with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater currently injured, Dobbins may appear to be declining even if he’s not in the coming weeks.

I’m overall more bullish than average on Dobbins, but there remains a chance he either gets hurt, or just rapidly declines in efficiency over time given we are in un-precedented medical territory here.

One player who the outlook is more certain about however is Gus Edwards. Edwards has yet to break a tackle this year, and ranks 38th in RYOE/att. It’s simply over for Edwards as an NFL running back.

The Chargers showed their hand last week by altering the roles, putting Edwards out there in more decoy snaps to preserve Dobbins, but giving the latter 18 touches to the former’s 3.

Eventually, this team has to want a 2nd viable ball carrier. They also have a week 5 bye…

What should happen: Chargers immediately activate Kimani Vidal and run him as the smaller half of a 65-35 split until and unless the wheels fall off on Dobbins — in which case they tilt things toward Vidal.

What will happen: Vidal is activated for the first time in Week 6 post-bye while Edwards is made a healthy scratch either that week or at some point shortly thereafter. Dobbins sees the largest immediate snap boost, but Vidal eventually works into a committee role, with potential to grow if Dobbins sees a major efficiency reduction.

STREAMER STOCK WATCH

To count as a “streamer” for the purposes of this section, you must have been drafted outside the top-100 picks (underdog ADP), and be a plausible weekly starter and/or RB1 on their team. The idea here is to give you start/sit advice in the near term for teams relying on these backs, along with a longer-view dynasty stance. The backs are ranked in order of my preference in starting them in the coming week.

The categorizations are taken from my those I used for my pre-season annotated RB tiers. Refer to the legend below for what each mean: (or ask in the comments if you need more clarification)