Week 6 Hitchhiker's Guide: The Sunday Drive

Reflecting on a week of backfield transitions, and how much to buy it

We’re going to dive in straight away here, as I plan on releasing some evergreen stuff later in the week, or else in the intro for the Streamer Stock Watch.

And we have some big items to cover!

Just a couple weeks ago I wrote about 5 backfields I expected to ‘flip’ in the second half of the season. It seems that a lot of these switches may have come early.

While D’Andre Swift has re-established himself in Chicago, Bucky Irving (along with Sean Tucker) enjoyed a breakout performance in Rachaad White's absence — after already encroaching upon his workload in previous weeks. Tank Bigsby has forced a true committee with Travis Etienne — who is now hurt. Chase Brown is now a fairly clear 1A in the Bengals backfield over Zack Moss. And while it may have largely happened due to injury, Kimani Vidal immediately provided more to the Chargers than Gus Edwards ever has, and looks poised to see his role grow over time. We seem to already be tracking toward 4/5, even sooner than I anticipated.

We’ll talk through these spots, in addition to several others — such as the Giants backfield where Tyrone Tracy has had a true breakout the last two weeks, and the Bills in which Ray Davis burst on the scene.

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Lastly, I need to note that the FantasyPoints Data Suite is where I get the bulk of my info for this column. If you want access to the single best database of key metrics for every fantasy format, use JAKOB25 at checkout for 25% off, and join the data suite!

NOTE: utilization data is from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. All qualitative data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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1. INJURIES AND FALL OUT

With the sheer amount of injuries the last couple weeks at this position I’m dividing this category up. First, in-game injuries that occured in Week 6. Second, backfields we saw play the entire game without a recently-injured member. Third, backfields in which a previously injued member returned in Week 6.

NEW INJURIES

San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Mason was well on his way to another dominant performance when he suffered an A.C. Sprain on Thursday Night Football. He came back in for one play and then subbed off again. Supposedly he has a chance to play in Week 7, though I take Kyle Shanahan incredibly un-seriously when it comes to injuries given the whole reason why Jordan Mason has started the first 6 games of the season in the first place.

Speaking of, Christian McCaffrey also supposedly has a chance to play Week 7 — which I also have no idea how seriously to believe.

If neither plays, this leaves the 49ers with Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor, anyone they pick up or elevate, and of course more RB snaps for Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk.

Guerendo had the impressive stat line, but aside from one 76-yard run, he took 9 carries for 23 yards. I’m not often the type to do “well if you take away their best play” type analysis, but I think this is a fairly unique situation. Seattle was loading the box to defend from San Francisco getting a game clinching 1st down, and frankly had very little concern about giving up a 76-yard run vs an 11-yard run. The hole was there and he burst through it, showing off his impressive combine-best speed. But this wasn’t a particularly replicable game situation.

On his other carries I thought he struggled with vision and execution of the scheme — though the athletic gifts, Shanahan, and the supporting cast will help him out, along with his own potential development.

If he has the role, he’ll score.

However, getting a clean shot at that role is the tougher part of the equation. First off, after Mason left the game, Taylor had 5 carries, Samuel had 4, and Juszczyk had 1. So Guerendo only saw 9 of 19 total non-QB rushes. Maybe he crowds out the Taylor attempts, and Juszczyk is primarily an LDD-only option, but we’ve seen Deebo Samuel’s RB usage directly tied to Shanahan’s level of trust in his tailback. Samuel saw extended work at RB in Week 1, before Mason established himself. Clearly Guerendo could do the same, but as of now I think there’s a material gap in his ability to execute as a RB vs. Mason’s.

Then even if he consolidates the backfield as it stands, both Mason and McCaffrey could return as early as this week — which means it’s quite possible you have a limited or non-existent runway to start Guerendo. It’s tough to drop all your FAAB on that type of speculative scenario.

This is a spot where if you play in a deep, FFPC-esque league, you need short-term RB upside, and he’s one of the few projectable Week 7 starters available, I have no objection to spending as much as you think you need to (or all of it). In this type of league most RB2s are already owned, so there is no guarantee you have a better shot at RB-value off waivers at any point.

If however you’re in a home league — especially if your team is well-positioned for playoffs — I would bypass this one. Even if Guerendo acquits himself nicely, Mason and McCaffrey are so talented I don’t think there’s any room for a role here in 2024 barring injury. And odds are that by the fantasy playoffs at least one of them is active.

In dynasty however it’s an exciting potential opportunity for him to showcase himself. Jordan Mason is an RFA in 2025 so it’s likely he’ll be back for at least one more year, but not guaranteed.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne suffered a hamstring injury in this game, which now adds to a shoulder stinger he was playing through, and his inferior rushing efficiency to his backup Tank Bigsby, to create quite the set of obstacles to a strong season.

First off, let’s talk about this backfield pre-hamstring injury.

Etienne started the game, but all three backs rotated in on the first drive. This included three snaps for D’Ernest Johnson on early downs, which was quite odd. Johnson has played in LDD situations since Week 2, and then saw a lot of work in the game winning two-minute drill in Week 5 after Etienne left the game with his shoulder issue. Johnson continued to mix in the rest of the half, such that snaps were Etienne 10 — Bigsby 9 — Johnson 7 at half.

I think Travis Etienne gets far too much hate for his rushing ability from folks who lean too heavily on his negatives and not enough on his strengths, for a back who generally grades out average or above in most advanced metrics. However, he’s certainly not perfect, and Bigsby has been phenomenal on the ground this year — which is why I predicted he’d bring this to a 50/50 rushing split a few weeks back.

This poses the question however: why is Johnson playing so much — including two red zone snaps on the first drive, one of which he received a carry on?

And my answer is: I have no clue.

What is the point of allocating a precious red zone opportunity to a RB who has not provided any rushing value in several years when you have a power-back who’s been excelling all season long you spent a Day 2 pick on, and a former Round 1 pick speed back you’re paying $10.4M to in 2025 — who is ostensibly healthy enough to play?

The way I interpreted this at the time was that Johnson was essentially playing whatever remnants of the “Etienne role” he would have had in full but for the shoulder injury, while they were containing Bigsby’s role for some reason — and taking the Johnson usage as an actually bullish sign for Etienne moving forward, in the sense that it spoke to his usage being limited more because of injury and less because of Bigsby simply being too good to take off the field.

But later in the game the broadcast mentioned they’d spoken to Etienne the previous night and he said he had gotten over the shoulder issue. Plus, the notion that they’d simply need to play D’Ernest Johnson to spell both Etienne and Bigsby on the first drive of the game is so patently absurd that reading into anything this current staff does with an assumption of logic might just be a mistake.

This staff has been quite poor for a while now and it’s pretty obvious they need to clean house. I’d be shocked if either Doug Pederson and Press Taylor made it through the season at this rate.

All this makes it hard to have any certainty in projecting forward, but we’ll try.

Etienne played 1 second half snap before leaving with a hamstring issue that supposedly leaves him “week-to-week.” Bigsby played 7 snaps and Johnson played 26. Because LOL.

However, in the immediate term this backfield is reasonably projectable — and follows on what we talked about last week. Bigsby is clearly preferred on the ground over Johnson, although some of that early usage suggests it will be more 70/30 on the ground vs. 90/10. But Johnson is their passing down guy, and the second half of this game was one long two-minute drill.

How it looks when Etienne returns is anyone’s guess. He’s a guy I’d like to try and buy at base-2 value in dynasty though if that’s possible, as thee is financial commitment here, talent, and a history of production. I have Bigsby in the base-two tier as well, and will keep him there for the moment.

He’s been an impressive rusher, and he has a pass-catching profile in college, but he was so, so dreadful in passing situations last year that I don’t think he’s live for that work — at least until there is a coaching change. I have him as a mid-tier RB2 given game script concerns in the near-term, and he’ll need to both prove himself on passing downs and crowd out Etienne fully in rushing situations upon his return to move past that valuation — which I don’t see as being a fait accompli just yet.