Answers to Your Mailbag Questions

This week I dropped a mailbag opportunity after launching my Redraft Tiers. You folks submitted several great questions here:

Today, let’s answer ‘em. I’ve gotten through almost all of them, though some were somewhat duplicative with others so I tried to combine some or just answer one iteration.

Will you being a dynasty rankings update and annotated RB tiers prior to the season?

Yes and Yes. Right now, Redraft / Best Ball is the focus but before the season starts I will make sure the dynasty stuff house is in order.

Why so low on Kyren Williams?

I’m glad someone asked! This is a fade that has been a bit out of step with most of my fellow travellers in the dynasty world, so happy to explain why I am where I am on it.

First off, the Rams backfield I think is at least somewhat misunderstood in terms of fantasy value. Last year the Rams ranked above average at 11th in half-PPR expected PPG for their backfield (a bit lower in full PPR). This was a massive jump after three years near the bottom of the league in backfield xFP.

The reason for this is that the Rams have had very low throw-rates to RBs under Sean McVay at least since Todd Gurley began his decline. I thought this may have mostly been a function of poor receiving backs, but Kyren Williams ranked at 0.64 YPRR in 2023, which was 57th among 59 backs with 20 or more targets. I don’t bring that up to say Williams is a poor receiving back, I actually think he’s quite a good one based on his college profile. Moreso, the McVay-Stafford version of this offense has simply never prioritized RBs in the passing game. Therefore, the backfield xFP becomes largely driven by TDs, and the Rams have swung wildly back and forth between pass-heavy and run-heavy at the goal-line in the McVay era.

What makes the Rams backfield so valuable is that — at times — McVay has been far more willing than almost any other NFL coach to entrust a running back with complete monopolies over the backfield production. Go look up what RBs have seen 90% touch shares the last half-decade and it’s a list of all the best RBs in recent history and also a bunch of Rams backs. This includes not only Todd Gurley, but also stretches of play from far less impressive talents such as CJ Anderson in late 2018, Cam Akers (in both 2020 and 2022), Darrell Henderson in early 2021, and Sony Michel in late 2021. When it comes to RB usage, McVay is a fulfilling but fickle lover.

The question is whether Kyren Williams becomes ultimately amounts to another muse, or the long-awaited heir apparent to Todd Gurley.

My best is that he fits somewhere in between.

Sean McVay is one of the most brilliant coaches in the league and I don’t think that’s the case based on a set of arbitrary preferences. Simply stating that McVay “loves a bell cow” is not quite enough for me: the why is more interesting. McVay understood far earlier than most coaches that there is value in presenting a consistent look to the defense. Being able to run out 11-personnel on-repeat and running a wide variety of plays within that prevents the defense from guessing what he’s going to run. And by staying in the same personnel packages play-to-play, he can also prevent defense from substituting.

Because of this, it’s very beneficial for McVay’s offense to play one back for an entire drive. However, I fail to see a reason, other than skill-gap, why it’s important to play one back for an entire game. When Kyren Williams was hurt last year, McVay largely continued the one-back-per-drive policy, but rotated Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson drive-by-drive. When Williams returned, McVay returned to a one-back approach, but to me that was because he was simply way better than Freeman and Henderson, not because he needed to play one back.

I think Kyren Williams is a good player, and one I clearly underrated early in last season. I even wrote an extended mea culpa about it in the Hitchhiker’s Guide last year after the Ravens game. But he is good in a fairly limited way. He’s not explosive, and his pass-catching is largely unnecessary in this scheme. He is a very reliable decision-maker with impressive power for his size. He’s a ‘chunk runner,’ and a very good one.

Blake Corum is the best decision-making RB in this year’s class, who also lacks explosiveness. His pass blocking is a major strength, and while he wasn’t asked to catch passes often with Donavan Edwards riding shotgun, he did it as a sophomore and is more than capable of being a check-and-release outlet which is the extent of what RBs are asked to do in this offense. The only major advantage I’d give Williams over Corum is tackle-breaking IF we think the Corum we saw in 2023 is the Corum we’re stuck with. Corum’s tackle evasion metrics were quite poor last season, but that was not the case before his knee injury, which he’s projected to be past to start this season. I think a healthy Blake Corum is the best pure rusher in the 2023 class, and likely on equal footing to Kyren Williams.

If you agree with me — which I suspect the Rams do since they drafted Corum in Round 3 — then I’m not sure what McVay gains by trotting out Williams for 80% of the backfield touches this year with an equally viable option right beside him. Both Corum and Williams offer the mix of reliability on all three downs and cerebral gifts to operate the Rams varied running scheme, he’s used in the past as a three-down workhorse. I don’t think he’s ever truly had two options like this in his backfield before.

Again, you can think I’m wrong about Corum’s evaluation and that’s quite possible. But if I’m not, then what is the more sensible approach from McVay?

• Rotating backs drive-by-drive (likely with Williams in more of a 2:1 or 3:2 ratio)

OR

• Loading it all on Williams

To me, the Corum pick was about McVay loving what he has in Williams, but recognizing he’s an under-sized back who has suffered two significant injuries in two years, and drafting a Williams clone who gives him the effect playing Williams every single snap without actually doing it.

If you stop projecting Williams to play an outsized snap share, all of sudden he looks more similar to Travis Etienne and Isiah Pacheco — other backs on good offenses with low team-level RB-usage rates — if not a touch worse. That’s how I get to where I am on him. I will admit to mixing him in at the mid-late 3rd on Underdog in case I’m wrong, but I’m largely content fading him in managed and living with the consequences.

I do think Corum is a massive target.

How would you draft from the late-1st in a 0.5-PPR home league where everyone prioritizes RB?

I think in any draft it’s important to build your team backwards in your mind before starting. Who are the players you want to prioritize at what parts of your draft? I encourage you to check out this draft of mine for an example:

If I’m doing a RB-thirsty home league, I want to make sure I have the flexibility to take shots on rookie WRs like Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, and Brian Thomas at what I expect to be deeply inefficient prices. As a result, I don’t want to box myself out of the position early.

My dream start at 1.11 in this kind of draft would be Garrett Wilson and your top RB: hopefully Gibbs, Taylor or Achane. Then I’m hoping to mix in a top TE and QB within Rounds 3-6, so that I’m at 1-1-3-1 with plenty of flexibility coming out of the first six picks. If you can snag a Cook or Walker at a reasonable price as your RB2 I’d consider that as well. Then try to rip through all the breaklout WRs in Rounds 7-10 while your leaguemates are fighting it out over Devin Singletary.

Most of the analysts I subscribe to have Burrow ranked significantly lower than last year. For you, is the ranking drop due to the influx of new Qb talent, his performance last year, or something else?

For me it’s mostly the latter. Burrow (and you could add Dak Prescott to this as well) is a very high floor bet given his talent. However, he adds almost no rushing element, and while he’s an efficient, high-volume passer he’s not Patrick Mahomes. I’m personally willing to make the bet that CJ Stroud enters that rarified air this year given his rookie season performance and weapons, but I understand why some are less willing. I think Burrow can be reasonable arbitrage plays on the true elite QBs this year, but I also think the likes of Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence can all be a strong arbitrage on him. It’s one thing in best ball when these QBs are going in fairly linear succession. But in 1-QB redraft, you reach a point where I’d rather just wait for everyone to take their QBs and grab the last starter of the draft when the opportunity cost is negligible instead of taking Burrow who doesn’t quite provide enough edge compared to folks like Allen and Hurts, but also can be largely replicated by the late-round options.

Dare I say late-round QB is back this year? It’s been a couple years now since we had an elite QB age out, while the success of the 2020 QB class, and promising prospects from 2023 and 2024, have led to a far deeper position with legitimate upside bets. Heck, Justin Herbert is probably a top-five real life QB and is largely un-drafted in 1QB leagues. Think of Burrow the way we thought of say, Drew Brees, five+ years ago.

Chris Olave seems to be one of the more confusing players in the low-end WR1 tier this year, with some folks ranking him as high as WR8 despite a seemingly league worst offensive line (and Derrick Carr).

Your rankings makes it clear that you prefer Waddle/Collins but if I’m drafting on a platform like Sleeper, does it make sense to take Olave at his ADP (~20) to try and thread the needle and get Waddle or Collins at their ADPs (30-36)? Or should I just reach for Waddle/Collins? Thanks!

I’ll handle both halves of this question separately. The first is regarding Olave. I think he’s polarizing because on hand his TPRR / wTPRR profile suggests an elite talent ready to emerge, while he’s largely struggled in contested catch situations and YAC. I think it’s a fair question to ask whether he’s a bit overrated in the traditional metrics we use because they over-weight getting open — which is his major strength — and whether his lack of excellence in other areas is why his fantasy output often seems underwhelming compared to his peripheral profile.

Personally, I think it’s a bit too early to make that kind of determination for Olave and I’m generally bullish on him. He’s definitely someone I do draft on underdog within the 2nd-round even if I prefer Waddle and Collins.

On the second question, I’ve had this discussion a few times and I think it depends on how many teams you are drafting. On one team, I think Collins and Waddle are each better picks than Olave (albeit marginally so), and you can’t draft both in the third round. So I would simply draft one one in the second round, and then draft the other one in the 3rd. However, if you’re drafting a lot of teams I can certainly see why you wouldn’t want to draft the same team over and over again. I would encourage you to determine what the total exposure of each player in this tier you want is and then try to draft in order to accomplish those exposures. There is no right answer about how much or little you should diversify. It comes down to your risk tolerance and the strength of your conviction.

For me specifically, whatever my cumulative exposure of Collins, Waddle and Olave is, I’d want roughly 50% of it on Waddle, 35% on Collins and 15% on Olave.

Would league size (10 vs 12 man) impact your draft strategy regarding the elite TE/QB options?

Hard for me to answer this perfectly without more info. How many WRs/RBs etc?

In a 10-team league with 1-2-2-1-1 settings, the WR position does take a massive hit. The RB-truthers are correct that it’s comparatively flat, the issue is that once it drops off, it drops off in a way that can’t be replicated while you can do that at RB through contingent value.

In these settings, nobody has to worry about the WR-cliff. Generally speaking you just want to stuff your roster full of as many elite producers as possible in shallow leagues since every team is good and it’s the true elites that are the scarce resource, almost regardless of position. I would be prioritizing Josh Allen / Jalen Hurts / Travis Kelce type assets here, and then shooting for pure maximum upside throughout my middle and late rounds.

How should we interpret players that you have listed as a target but you have ranked below ADP (e.g. Stroud)?

GREAT question. It’s impossible for me to make one list of rankings that is perfectly calibrated to each site, so I chose to calibrate them to no particular site and more or less just be a reflection of what I think efficient ADP should be.

So if you’re drafting on a site where a given position appears over or under-valued you probably want to weight that position less, but at the same time, you don’t want to just click WRs for 10 rounds so it’s worth trying to pick the spots when the comparative advantage between a given position and WR is smallest, and target that position then.

Generally my targets are players whom I’m targeting vis a vis their positional ADP more so than their overall ADP. The two biggest examples of this I think are James Cook and Ken Walker. Basically what I’m saying is that in a vacuum, based on the scoring and roster settings I set, I prefer a lot of WRs to these players who go behind them. But I know you need to take RBs at some point, and these are two of the few mid-round RBs I actually like, so if you can get them at ADP and need a RB when they’ve available, it's probably a good chance to make a detour from WR.

I've been going back and forth on drafting Bijian vs. Breece and can't decide which to go with. Robinson feels more explosive and exciting but Breece has been able to do it with some of the worst offenses in the NFL. You have Breece ranked above, just curious as to why or if the difference to you is negligible. Thanks!

I agree it’s negligible. For what it’s worth I’ve been randomizing my exposure to them in Best Ball, and then massaging it as needed to aim for equal exposure between the two. One draft for my life I’m taking Hall because we’ve seen the efficiency and the pass-game involvement at a higher level. I also would take some issue with what you said about explosiveness, given Hall has been the best breakaway runner in the league the last two years (non-Achane category).

But I do think Robinson can probably do everything Hall can do. I just haven’t seen it yet so I err the slightest amount toward Hall. I really like both though and wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see either or both outscore a healthy McCaffrey this season.

Any thoughts on strategy in redraft superflex this year? Should you try to grab your second QB early or enough good options to wait? Would you be comfortable with a rookie at QB3 who might not start to begin this year (e.g. Maye/McCarthy)?

Sadly McCarthy no longer applies here. But generally yes. Every room is it’s own organism so you want to play the room you’re dealt. But my ideal superflex strategy going in this year would be to walk out of the first two rounds with one top-12 QB and then target two mid-late ones. I’d like one of those mid-late ones to be quite stable (think Herbert / Cousins Stafford / Rodgers / Smith) and then one upside swing (Watson / Fields / Levis / Maye / Nix).

Who are some must have mid-late rd RBs to target in half ppr home league?

My favourite targets at cost for this question are Javonte Williams, Jaylen Warren (pending health), Jonathon Brooks, Tyjae Spears, Blake Corum.

Brian Robinson I like but is more of a best ball target for me. Chase Brown would have been on this list a while ago but he’s moved up quite a bit and past where I think he’s a must-have target.

Im pretty much guaranteed to start with Bijan/Breece and then for my second rb, following ur process for grabbing the rb2 from tier 10, have to pass on Odunze in the 9th round as my wr6 (I can start 4) to get Chase Brown.

But would it be better to grab Achane over a wr earlier as my rb2 when they are much closer in value so I can just attack the wr value later?

I would prefer the 2 v. 2 of Achane (or Cook or Walker) as my RB2 and Odunze than Round 2 (or 4) WR and Brown.

Does stacking matter at all in home leagues or can you just focus on taking the best players available?

It doesn’t hurt, but definitely not a focus point. Especially for your home league I suspect you will be one of the sharper drafters so I don’t think it’s necessarily to your advantage to take any action that increases variance. Probably evens out the correlation edge.

Where is Jameson Williams on your ranks? I missed him I think

I missed him!! I’m sorry — It’s been updated. He’s a fade for me.

Have the 1.01 in a 10 team PPR with only 2 WR and one flex. I’m torn between CMC and Ceedee. On the one hand I feel confident in being able to find usable rbs on waivers all year and lean towards Ceedee. On the other hand, CMC’s league breaking upside is hard to turn down in this shallow of a league. Which way would you lean in this format?

I’m going running back there. Probably CMC but could be talked into one of the younger backs as well.

Can you explain your stance on Bowers? Is it a pure talent/upside case?

Correct. I don’t have much good to say about Luke Getsy or Gardner Minshew, though I was really encouraged by how much they moved him around the formation in Week 1 of the pre-season and prioritized him on first-read targets.

Here’s my rookie draft take on his insanely good profile:

Are we sure that CeeDee Lamb is clearly ahead of the other top WR's? Lamb usually seems to go #1 or #2 with McCaffrey, and I hardly ever see Tyreek Hill or Ja'Marr Chase going there. I guess I don't see a big difference between them and even Jefferson (although I understand the QB concerns with him).

I don’t see a big difference. But because of that I largely go with ADP. I was a bit lower on Ceedee in my first run of ranks since the others there have a longer track record of being truly elite. (Though Chase actually lags behind Jefferson and Hill from a target-earning profile perspective)

However, I kept finding myself having defend fades on Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks and over time I just had to decide whether I was prepared to bet that this offense would fail with a healthy Lamb and Prescott, or whether it just needed to run entirely through Lamb (or if my fades were short-sighted). I decided to go with the “it all runs through Lamb” option and moved him up to my 1.01.

I do think you can (and should) take the top 3 RBs over any of the WRs in half PPR home leagues.

Can I get a take on the effect of the performance of the rookie class as a whole on the price of individual rookies?

My feeling is that the sophomore prices are affected very heavily, not only by the performance of the rookie himself, but also by the class as a whole, both in the position as such as well as in relation to other positions. Is this worth trying to predict to some extent? This year is very QB and WR heavy for example (meaning many good prospects and a lot of draft capital at those positions). Does this make it more or less interesting to invest in rookies in those positions? And did last year's surprisingly(?) good WR class raise the prices on this year's class? If so, too much or just enough?

That’s an awesome question! I have talked about the inflation on breakout WR prices a lot this year and would encourage you to check out the archives, specifically this one:

And this one:

TLDR: Yes Rookies are being drafted earlier this year but that’s the market getting closer to efficient ADP, not an over-reaction. Highly-drafted rookies beat ADP regularly and they do it with a wide-band range of outcomes we want to be targeting in fantasy football. I think we’ve seen some rookies get priced up closer to their efficient ADP but in home leagues at least the price on Worthy, Odunze and Thomas especially is still far lower than my rank.

Do you have any thoughts on how to attack QB this year in 1 QB redraft? Any specific pockets of the draft where you’re willing to start foregoing other positions for guys you like?

This question was mostly answered in the Burrow Question above. In a 1-QB redraft I’m considering the top-three QBs if the price is palatable. From there I’m checking in again with Richardson and Stroud, but I’m prioritizing RB and TE detours more than QB at each of these junctures.

My favourite approach in 1QB redraft this year will be to wait and take late-round options like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Add Justin Fields late just in case.

Will you make your own discord at some point so we can interact with you more consistently?

I really want to. But I’m loath to introduce something new that I can’t devote as much time to as people deserve who sign up based on the new addition. It’s a possibility for Week 1 so that I can potentially try to respond to people’s concerns while not being able to get every thought I have into an article.

In home leagues that don’t have a super deep bench and can only start 2 WRs and one flex, generally how many WRs do you recommend drafting on a team?

It depends on who your top WRs are. But generally 5-6.

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Thanks folks! I’m going to do one more mailbag — fantasy or non-fantasy related questions — prior to the season.

Flying home from Vegas last year after a terrific weekend of drafting and making friends with some of the folks in the community while answering reader questions on my favourite Elliott Smith songs was one of the happiest plane rides I’ve ever had.