Reviewing My First Solo High-Stakes Managed Draft of the Year

Breaking down the thought process of my recent FFPC Draft

Tonight was my 2nd of 10-12 high-stakes drafts this year, primarily in the $350 contests on both FFPC and NFC, and two main events.

Most of those will be done with co-managers (including this one with my guy Ron Stewart). But this one was solo, which means it’s a bit easier to write up since every pick is entirely reflective of my thought process. I wanted to write up this draft as an exercise in explaining how I would use my redraft tiers in a dynamic way within the context of a specific draft.

The Format

First let’s run down the format of this tournament:

• $350 Entry

• Weeks 1-12: 12-person league w/ Week 13-14 playoff

• Top Points For and Top W-L from each league, plus League Champ Advances to the Championship Round

• Weeks 15-17 Total Points Playoff for the Grand Prize

• Full PPR / TEP / 1QB / 2RB / 2WR / 2FLEX / K / D

Based on this format it’s a bit of a hybrid strategy between Underdog drafting and your standard redraft format in terms of it being a managed league, but you’re still keeping that tournament-style, elite percentile outcome based focus.

As well, the TEP is a huge differentiating factor on FFPC, in conjunction with the two flex spots. This means people will rip the early TEs early, and never really stop drafting TEs since you can plausibly flex mid-low TE1s with similar scoring expectations to lower-end starting WRs and RBs. You can get in a trap where even if you think the elite TEs are being over-drafted, you may never have a chance to get in on the position, as it’s typically a low-upside roster building choice to target mid-tier TEs ahead of breakout opportunities at WR. And by the time the opportunity cost gets lower, the TE profiles are quite weak, such that you want to take multiple bets.

Generally the rule of thumb I’ve created over the years of drafting on this platform is that you probably need at least one early RB or TE, and preferably both. Otherwise you start chasing late upside darts at both positions and your draft gets claustrophobic in a hurry. By the same token, we are commonly seeing the breakout-WR range extend into Round 8/9, and you want to have optionality to pick those WRs.

Pre-Draft Planning

I received the 1.12 which is absolute ass — especially after Jahmyr Gibbs’ injury. I see a very sharp drop after the first 11 players (including Puka Nacua, even after his injury). FFPC makes this pick a bit more dynamic however, as the first group of TEs — Sam Laporta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride — all comes off in the early-to-mid 2nd round.

The first order of operations for me to formulate a draft plan was to work in reverse. On FFPC, the close of the breakout-WR window matches up closely with the end of the RBs you can viably start Week 1. On underdog terms, think the end of the tier with Singletary / Robinson / Spears / Moss etc. It’s just that instead of this whole tier of backs coming once the WR window slams shut, the WRs and RBs alternate more fluidly until a big tier drop hits both positions near the end of Round 9.

For me, sitting at the 9-10 turn, this meant I had approximately 10 picks to make non-contingent bets for my roster. With how I draft, I want at least 5 (and ideally 6) of those to be WRs. I also need a TE in that mix, and minimum 2 RBs. With 1-2 bonus picks I can look at QB, or shoring up RB or WR depending on the board and how I draft early on.

I’ve written at length about my prioritization of early-WR if you want to dive into the archives. But the Two-Sentence sell is that below a certain threshold of talent, a WR simply has no shot at providing above replacement-level value to your team since volume is a function of talent at the position. Meanwhile, all RBs pose at least theoretical contingent value, and I want to draft in a way that mobilizes the upside of every pick on my team.

Looking at the ADP and cross-referencing with my rankings, here were the realistic considerations at RB, TE, and WR at each turn to consider. One of the few benefits of drafting at 1.12 is you pick on the turns so you have a good feel for who is in your player pool:

R1-2: Taylor, Barkley, Gibbs (RB) // Wilson, Nacua, London (WR) // Laporta, Kelce, McBride (TE)

R3-4: Cook (RB) // Collins, Waddle, Samuel, Aiyuk, Nabers, Evans, Smith (WR) // Pitts, Kittle (TE)

R5-6: Walker (RB) // Dell, Higgins, Rice, Pickens (WR) // Bowers, Njoku (TE)

R7-8: Williams, Swift, Brooks (RB) // Worthy, JSN, McConkey (WR)

R9-10: Robinson, Spears, Moss, Corum (RB) // Odunze, Coleman, Thomas (WR)

In essence, TE dries up after the 6th, and the gap between RBs and WRs in my rankings only grows wider in each successive turn. As a result, I decided that unless I had two of my top-11 players fall to me at the first turn, I’d prioritize RB first, and TE second ahead of the London+ tier at WR.

The Draft

Here’s the end result. Let’s walk through how we got there.

TURN 1: Puka Nacua (WR1), Jonathan Taylor (RB1)

Nacua was the last of my tier who was available here and became an automatic selection. Garrett Wilson, my 8th-ranked player, fell just enough to tease me.

The second pick was a more difficult decision, but while I viewed strong TE options to consider at each of the next two turns, my only avenues at RB were either hoping for a huge faller, drafting James Cook well ahead of both his ADP and my rank at the next turn, or hoping Ken Walker fell to me at the 5-6 turn. With Gibbs suffering a hamstring injury today, Taylor vaults to the top of my second RB tier and becomes the selection.

TURN 2: Kyle Pitts (TE1), Malik Nabers (WR2)

First off, Team 11 got me again. Jaylen Waddle is my 12th-ranked player and I was just one pick from getting him at 36. I would have been absolutely ecstatic.

Once I deferred TE in the first turn, I was set on Pitts at this turn if he fell. I don’t think he’s without risk given what we saw last year, but if you try to keep a zoomed out view of his peripherals over three seasons and translate that to a Kirk Cousins—Zach Robinson offense, he projects within range of all the TEs who came off in Round 2. In other words, I’m ready to get hurt again.

The second pick was a toss-up for me between Aiyuk, Nabers and Evans. If I knew 100% that Aiyuk was a 49er and Nabers was healthy Week 1, I would go 1. Nabers, 2. Aiyuk, 3. Evans. Since I know neither of those things, the safety of Evans was tempting. But I also view these early drafts as a chance to get pairings I can’t get when I draft the rest of my high-stakes portfolio and I think in 80-percent of cases that Nabers will be full healthy, and Aiyuk will be a 49er. And when that happens, I’m not sure either is available at the Round 3-4 turn. I just went for the player I liked most, but it was a legitimately close call and one with some material downside risk.

TURN 3: Rahsee Rice (WR3), Zay Flowers (WR4)

With RB and TE out of the way, I was hoping to crank WR at my next 3-4 picks, and praying to get two out of Higgins, Dell, Rice, and Flowers. The latter two fell here, which allowed me to draft right before a tier break in my rankings. Flowers is just a standard bet on a strong rookie potentially improving in Year 2 in a good offense. It’s a class small miss, big hit profile I want to attack in the middle rounds.

Rice is the more complicated pick, since this ADP likely reflects a hedge price between what his ADP will be once/if it’s confirmed whether he gets suspended or doesn’t. I will say that the suspension risk is much less important to me in managed when I can stick him on the bench if need be with fewer consequences. That’s especially true of how I draft with 5-6 early WR selections. If there’s one thing I’ll have as surplus of it’s early-season WR depth. I can survive a possible suspension and then hopefully the year 2 bet pays off.

I was suspicious of Rice being worth his early price in Round 2 given the poor prospect profile and limited nature of production on low-ADOT routes. But we’ve also seen WRs breakout in multiple ways in the past and the lesson is typically that when you break out to the degree Rice did, you’re just damn good.

As you can see below courtesy of PFF, Rice put up 2.39 YPRR and 25.5% TPRR: both absolutely elite marks for a rookie. He was definitively the 2nd or 3rd most impressive rookie in the class year 1. (I slightly favour Dell on raw talent given he did it next to a breakout Nico Collins season, and on a more traditional WR role)

There’s a ceiling here where Rice is the second coming of Amon-Ra St. Brown and we’ve all over thought his role and let ourselves get scared off of Patrick Mahomes’ elite WR1 over suspension risk. That upside is disproportionate to the risk at a Round 5-6 turn cost in a managed, PRR tournament.

TURN 4: Xavier Worthy (WR5), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR6)

Xavier Worthy is a player I’m jumping into drafts to select right now before his ADP corrects closer to his Underdog ADP, and toward where I expect him to go as a result of Marquise Brown’s injury being baked in. To me, he should be in the mix as early as the Round 4-5 turn as the lone Chiefs WR without risk of missing early season games. And I say that as someone who wasn’t even that high on his prospect profile! But the reward here is absolutely massive and he is a high ceiling prospect with a lot of production. What are we doing letting him be gettable in the late 8th?

The second pick was a bit more of a decision. The odds of getting one of the last RBs from the tier I’m comfortable with as a Week 1 starter (Robinson, Spears, Moss) to fall to the 9-10 turn were 50/50. So were the odds of getting one of Odunze, Coleman or Thomas back to me based on their ADP.

The question became, what would I most fear missing out on?

I decided I’d be most angry if I played the ADP game, grabbed a RB, and then missed out on the rest of the breakout-WR profiles before the next turn. So I ruled out a RB pick and then had to decide between Odunze, who I liked most but who probably had 20-30% chance of falling to me at the next turn, and JSN — who was sure to come off the board shortly after my pick.

I went with JSN seeing as both players are in the same tier in my ranks, and I should presumably have more chances to get exposure to Odunze at better prices later. If that proves incorrect, I’ll adjust and start drafting him closer to my ranking.

TURN 5: Zack Moss (RB2), Blake Corum (RB3)

Tyjae Spears goes off one pick before me which was a punch in the gut, but I was oddly grateful to see the WRs I liked all gone as a justification of my process at the previous turn. I made the right gamble. Zack Moss is not a guy I’ve targeted at all this season, but the Chase Brown hype train has resulted in a major slide, to the point he was available in this room 37 picks after Brown. That’s not an efficient gap. I have liked Brown more at cost since May, and even preferred him straight up when that was an unpopular opinion. But this is still very fluid and neither back should be three rounds ahead of the other.

It’s hard to imagine Moss not having a Week 1 role, and I need someone to fill my RB2 slot while I wait for an eventual breakout from my bench of the waiver wire. It’s also possible he runs away with the high-value touch role in this backfield and winds up a plug and play RB2 all year long. It’s not what I think is most likely but it’s certainly plausible.

For my other RB pick I wanted to go pure upside to counter the floor play in Moss. I’ve been higher on Corum and lower on Kyren Williams than the market all year. Corum was my RB3 in this rookie class and my highest graded decision-maker on film. He’s a perfect fit for what the Rams run and can pass protect well enough to be a three-down player, which is huge for a system that is loath to make substitutions mid-series. My expectation is that the Rams go with the 2:1 drive rotation to open the year, with both backs playing all downs and situations on their own drives, which allows McVay to get all the benefits of a one-back system while keeping their diminutive starter fresh.

I think Williams can play ball without a doubt. But he’s not explosive and while he was a great pass catcher in college that’s not been his role in the NFL. I think Corum excels at the same skillsets Kyren does, and could push to make it a 50/50 split over time here. Most importantly, the rest of this backfield is absolutely barren. Corum has impressed in camp, and was rested in the first pre-season game, a bullish signal for his role in the offense, and the same one that first twigged me on to Williams last season. If Kyren Williams were to suffer an injury, Corum projects to be an absolute workhorse and projectable RB1. He’s the best handcuff in fantasy this year.

The other consideration for me was QB, but in managed you can play the room a bit more than in best ball. Only 3 other teams needed QBs and I had 3 QBs side by side in my rankings. I just needed one team to pass and I was locked into one of Love, Prescott, or Daniels. Daniels was the most likely to make it to me and the best fit for my team given I had no viable stacking options. If all three went off the board I am comfortable going late-QB this year and pairing one of my stacked pocket QB options (Stafford, Cousins, Smith) with an upside dart throw in Watson, Fields or Maye. I’d also have been comfortable with a sliding Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence as a late-round naked QB, as both are targets for me this year generally speaking.

TURN 6: Jayden Daniels (QB1), Trey Benson (RB4)

I got my wish and Jayden Daniels fell to me at the 11.12. He sets up to have a very high floor as a late-round QB and is a nice throwback to a time when attacking un-proven rushing QBs was the dominant strategy, long before we started seeing the Anthony Richardsons and Trey Lances of the world creep far up draft boards.

Trey Benson hasn’t had an ideal off-season run out thus far. We don’t get much news from Cardinals camp, but what we have gotten is that Emari Demercado is pushing Benson for the RB2 role, and then we saw Benson play inefficiently in the pre-season game while subbing off on passing downs for Michael Carter.

The culmination of this is that the ideal scenario for Benson immediately post-draft of a 60/40 split with James Conner from Week 1 seems far fetched. But I don’t think that means his upside is gone. Benson was a raw prospect, but still graded out as my pre-draft RB1 and I want to have more conviction than to white flag well-researched takes because of some training camp blurbs. (Remember when De’Von Achane was a healthy scratch last year?)

First off, let’s just be a little bit serious for one second. If James Conner suffers an injury and the choice is a 6 foot, 215 pound back who runs sub-4.4 the team just spent a top-70 pick on, or two satellite backs with no team investment, we all know who is getting the first crack at the gig. If Conner stays healthy I’m not sure what we. can expect. I’m far from certain Benson is going to play passing downs to start out the year, and if Conner plays as well as he did last year, Benson’s role may not grow beyond a handful of change-of-pace snaps. That could prove costly for drafters (including myself) who invested at his early-off season best ball price, but it’s of little consequence at this price in managed. Even if he’s a pure handcuff stash, I’m happy to take my shot here in the 12th.

THE REST: Braelon Allen (RB5), Bucky Irving (RB6), Xavier Legette (WR7), Juwan Johnson (TE2), Geno Smith (QB2), Will Shipley (RB7), CHI DST, SF KICKER

Nothing too deep here. Just filling out the rest of my bench with upside RB darts. Each of these backs is a rookie, and all project to compete for or already be the RB2 on the depth chart.

Braelon Allen is a prospect I did not love but am coming around on quickly as he’s earned rave reviews in camp. The Allen I watched in the pre-season far exceeded my view of him at Wisconsin. He looks improved as a pass protector and far more decisive as a runner. Good for him putting in the work this off-season, it’s fantastic to watch him come into his potential at that size and speed.

Bucky Irving is a player I’m pretty confident can play ball from his college tape and metrics, but am less sure of the ceiling on given his size-speed profile. The good news is that Rachaad White is a very low bar to clear when it comes to explosive rushing ability. I think Iriving carves out a role and has some upside to take this backfield over if White stumbles again as a rusher.

Shipley has the least chance of any of these backs to play significant snaps in base, but in managed that’s not too important. He was my RB6 pre-draft, and I’m still quite bullish on the talent here as a potential all-situations skillset. Should Barkley go down, I think the Eagles will quickly realize that Shipley gives them a lot more juice than Kenny Gainwell — something that has apparently been on display at camp. He’s one of my favourite last round dart throws especially with three weeks left for things to happen in camp.

Xavier Legette has become my most drafted player largely by accident this year. I wouldn’t say I’m a huge Legette fan boy, but I’m just lost for why everyone is seemingly writing him off entirely. The likes of Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas Jr. are coming off the board 7-8 rounds higher than this guy despite similar overall draft capital. Ja’Lynn Polk (who I’m also drafting a TON of) is going higher, and he had a ess impressive production profile in college. Ricky Pearsall is going higher and he is the 5th option at best on his offense.

I get the concerns. Legette was a late breakout, has battled injuries at camp, and plays on a poor offense. But that’s only part of the story. He’s also a 1st round pick on a team where Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo are currently standing between him and a 90-percent route share. AND HE PRODUCED! He had a 24% TPRR and 3.15 YPRR in the freakin’ SEC! This is not a profile that’s on par with the likes of Kadarius Toney or Jonathan Mingo. It is definitely in the Kevin White universe if you want to be critical. But the point is that there *IS* production here, and it’s against a high level of competition. It just came late.

To me it seems like we’re being massively over confident that a 1st-round WR can’t play, when we just saw far less complete college profiles in Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, and Puka Nacua emerge to have the three most impressive rookie seasons in the 2023 class.

I agree that it’s unlikely he’ll be an impact player this year. I just don’t understand why we’re so sure of it,. His ADP is nonsensical to me and I’ll keep taking the free shot at upside if you insist.

I drafted six rookies in a row so here’s some more in depth thoughts on the class from April for anyone curious:

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What do you think of the squad? Are you #WorriedAboutMyRBs? Let me know in the comments.

I’m hoping you found this helpful as a way to utilize my rankings. I’ll leave this as a free post so if you’re curious about the ranks and the redraft content on this site you can get into the minutiae of a draft with me.